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Forexn1

AUD/USD:Breakout Neckline H&S And SHORT Continuation....Hello Traders! So, the Australian dollar (AUD) has gone down after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made a decision about interest rates. However, Antje Praefcke, an FX Analyst at Commerzbank, thinks we should be careful about assuming that this means the end of interest rate hikes in Australia. Basically, the RBA still seems to be planning to raise interest rates further, but they're going to be looking at economic data before they make any more decisions. The market reacted to the RBA's statement by selling AUD, but it's not necessarily a sign that the interest rate cycle is over. Like in other countries, some prices are going down (like energy prices) but others (like services and wages) are still going up. So, the market is going to be paying close attention to economic data to see what the RBA will do next.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD:Eurozone Retail Sales decline 2.3% YoY vs. 1.9% expected So, the latest data released by Eurostat shows that the Eurozone's Retail Sales in February were not as good as expected. Year-on-year, there was a decline of 2.3%, which was worse than the 1.9% decline that was anticipated. Month-on-month, there was an increase of only 0.3%, compared to the expected 1.0%. However, this was still an improvement from the previous month's decline of 1.6%. This information may have an impact on the value of the Euro in foreign exchange markets. Generally, if the retail sector is doing well and consumer spending is increasing, this can have a positive effect on the economy, which can lead to an increase in the value of the Euro. Conversely, if the retail sector is struggling, it can have a negative effect on the economy, which can lead to a decrease in the value of the Euro. So, in short, the latest Eurozone Retail Sales data shows that there has been a decline in sales, which may not be great news for the Euro. The price is still inside a bearish channel where the value had a previous pullback on the 50% Fibonacci area inside a flag pattern. We are looking for a new short push-down continuation following our previous sell signals from Isoforex.
Short
by FOREXN1
38
USD/CAD: Consolidation Before a New Bullish Impulse. LONGThe USD/CAD is still bullish, and in the last few sessions, the price, after making a double bottom on the support area (green rectangle), has been trying to make a new bullish impulse to the resistance area around 1.39000 but actually, the price is still in a consolidation setup, and usually, this kind of situation gives the possibility for the Value to explode in one direction. Our forecast remains long, after we get the signal from the ISOFOREX indicator.
Long
by FOREXN1
9
GBP/USD expected to trade within 1.1925-1.2120 – UOBAccording to UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang, GBP/USD is expected to trade between 1.1925 and 1.2120 in the short-term horizon. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our expectations for GBP to weaken further were incorrect as it rebounded to a high of 1.2049. While upward momentum has not improved much with the rebound, GBP could edge higher to 1.2070. The next resistance at 1.2120 is not expected to come under threat. On the downside, a breach of 1.1985 (minor support is at 1.2005) would indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.” Next 1-3 weeks: “Last Friday (03 Mar, spot at 1.1985), we indicated that while downward momentum is beginning to build, GBP has to break 1.1900 before a sustained decline is likely. We added, ‘the chance of GBP breaking 1.1900 will remain intact as long as 1.2045 is not breached within the next few days’. GBP rose to a high of 1.2049 in NY trade. The breach of our ‘strong resistance’ indicates that downward momentum has faded. To look at it another way, instead of heading lower, GBP is likely to continue to consolidate, expected to be between 1.1925 and 1.2120.”
Short
by FOREXN1
7
USD/CAD is holding at support as the focus remains on the Fed.As the week draws to a close in Asia, USD/CAD has remained steady with its price hovering around 1.3580, just below its daily high of 1.3601. On Thursday, the US Dollar strengthened following the release of Unemployment Claims data, which indicated a robust US labor market. Consequently, the yield on two-year Treasury notes, which are sensitive to interest rate expectations, rose to levels not seen since July 2007. Futures inched higher, with the market predicting a peak rate of 5.493% in fed funds by September, before easing slightly later in the session to 5.447%. Attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stating on Thursday that the Fed is prepared to continue raising rates if inflation doesn't slow. Bostic also mentioned that the Fed is still considering how recent inflation data, which was stronger than expected, might shape their policy. According to Bostic, the impact of higher rates on the economy may only begin to "bite" in earnest this spring, which supports the argument for the Fed to stick with "steady" quarter-point rate increases.
Long
by FOREXN1
34
GOLD: Price approach Resistance $1850 Price May ReboundThis week, Gold price bulls have made a comeback, causing the precious metal to break out of a bearish trend that dominated its value in February. What's even more impressive is that Gold has been able to rally despite the strengthening of US Treasury bond yields, which typically benefits the US Dollar and puts pressure on commodities that don't yield interest. News from China that their PMI data for both Manufacturing and Services sectors is strong has boosted Gold demand since China is a significant market for the yellow metal. Gold traders are eagerly anticipating clues from the Federal Reserve, which could come from speeches made by Fed officials and the upcoming ISM Services PMI report on Friday. Investors are closely watching the US 10-year Treasury bond yield market, which rose above the crucial 4% resistance level on Wednesday and has remained above it. If yields remain high, the usual inverse correlation of Gold price with US Treasury yields could put downward pressure on XAU/USD. However, a retracement in the bond market could push the precious metal higher. On Friday, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will publish the Services PMI report at 15 GMT, and market participants will be watching the Prices Paid Index component closely. If this report confirms that wage costs are rising and causing prices to accelerate, the US Dollar is likely to remain steady against Gold. The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in at least two more 25 basis points Federal Reserve rate hikes in March and May. Moreover, the probability of the Fed keeping the policy rate unchanged in June is 25%. The market turnaround has confirmed that the US Dollar doesn't have much room to rise, at least until the February jobs report and inflation data confirm or refute another 25-bps hike in June.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
23
EUR/USD:Euro at risk of significant losses — CommerzbankFurther appreciation potential for EUR/USD is likely to be limited for now, in the view of economists at Commerzbank. ECB rate expectations have gone far “The market expects interest rates to peak at just under 4%. In our view, current market expectations are already quite aggressive. A large share of the upside risks for inflation that emerged over the past weeks is likely to be priced into the rate outlook already, which limits the Euro’s future appreciation potential.” “In view of stubbornly high underlying inflation momentum dovish resistance within the ECB might prevent a sufficient tightening of monetary policy, in particular if core inflation tends downwards over the course of next year. If signs indicating this increase, the Euro would be at risk of recording significant losses.” – Commerzbank
Short
by FOREXN1
6
GOLD: Price Drop as Predicted , SELL signal and Bearish setup...During the Asian session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) broke below the crucial resistance level of $1,840.00 after a gradual correction from its peak of $1,844.00. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is experiencing erratic movements, which typically lead to a decrease in volatility. S&P 500 futures have reversed their marginal gains and are adding to their Wednesday losses, indicating a resurgence of the risk-averse sentiment. Additionally, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has reached a three-month high of 4.01%. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), two large online recruitment companies, ZipRecruiter Inc. and Recruit Holdings Co, have reported a decrease in job postings for December. However, the US Department of Labor has reported a significant number of job openings in the same month, primarily in restaurants, hospitals, nursing homes, and child-care centers, rather than from firms. Despite this, shark producers and large tech companies have initiated lay-off programs due to the bleak economic outlook. As a result, the labor market may cool down, and the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is increasing rates to slow down growth and inflation, may consider further reducing the pace of policy tightening.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
20
GBP/USD: SELL Signal and Price Drop...he GBP/USD pair is facing downward pressure, with bears attacking the 1.2000 psychological level over the past three days. Brexit-related challenges and a rally in US Treasury bond yields are contributing to the decline, although there is limited action in the market ahead of the London open on Thursday. The Telegraph reported that the Democratic Unionist Party is dissatisfied with parts of the EU-UK departure terms over the Northern Ireland Protocol, while a Financial Times survey found that two-thirds of UK businesses believe government plans to disentangle British and EU law will cause more uncertainty and not increase economic growth. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's neutral comments contrast with the hawkish remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari, and the UK S&P/CIPS Manufacturing PMI data was downbeat compared to the upbeat details of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Additionally, inflation concerns and fading optimism over China's economic growth, as well as Sino-American tensions, are also putting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. US Treasury bond yields rose, reflecting market fears and weighing on S&P 500 Futures. The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced off a one-week low to 104.60, up 0.17% intraday, amid a risk-off mood and firmer yields. With a light calendar, GBP/USD moves may be restricted and could remain southwards before Friday's key US ISM Services PMI and final readings of the UK S&P Global/CIPS Services PMI for February.
Short
by FOREXN1
10
NZD/USD bears step in at the highs and pressure SHORTThe NZD/USD currency pair has experienced a decline of approximately 0.27% from its high of 0.6257, falling to a low of 0.6238. This retracement occurred after a surge in commodity prices following the news of a Chinese demand revival. However, the Australian GDP growth slowed to 0.5% QoQ, missing consensus expectations of a 0.8% lift, which initially weighed on both the Australian and New Zealand currencies. The possibility of an earlier pause in hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia also increased. Despite this, the kiwi currency saw a surge in speculative buying after reports of China's Non-manufacturing activity growth at a faster pace in February, and the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI reading surpassing expectations. The offshore yuan also jumped 1.3% to 6.8683 per dollar, its largest one-day gain since late November. The kiwi currency outperformed most of its peers, especially on the NZD/AUD cross, according to analysts at ANZ Bank. The EUR was another strong performer, boosted by the strong German CPI print, and the kiwi followed suit. Additionally, stop-loss buying on the NZD/AUD cross may have contributed to the price action. However, as there wasn't a clear catalyst for the kiwi's surge, the price action may subside in the coming days. The USD vibe has also shifted as strong data last week resulted in the DXY rallying hard as bond yields increased. However, the recent run of solid data has weighed on the dollar in a "good news is bad news" manner, raising fears that the Fed will engineer a recession. The strength of the kiwi currency may be due to a belated recognition of economic resilience and cyclone rebuilding. Overall, the kiwi has performed well despite the recent retracement, and its strength may persist in the coming days.
Short
by FOREXN1
7
EUR/USD:1.05 will be the bottom of the first quarter range - INGEUR/USD got a lift yesterday. Economists at ING believe that the 1.05 level will be the bottom of the first quarter range. “The continued re-pricing of the ECB curve is providing EUR/USD with some support against higher US rates and suggesting 1.05 will be the bottom of the EUR/USD's first quarter range after all. Certainly, the disinflation story is taking a back seat this month.” “Today, we have a few ECB speakers and we should expect a relatively quiet 1.0565-1.0645 range for EUR/USD.” – ING
Short
by FOREXN1
16
USD/JPY: Extra gains look likely above 136.90 – UOBFurther upside in USD/JPY should remain on the cards while above the 136.90 level according to UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Market Strategist Quek Ser Leang. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Yesterday, we expected USD to trade within a range of 135.80/136.60. However, USD popped to a high of 136.93 and then dropped sharply to close unchanged at 136.00. Upward momentum has not improved and USD is unlikely to advance further. Today, USD is more likely to trade sideways between 135.70 and 136.90.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted on Monday (27 Feb, spot at 136.30) that after the strong rise late last week, upward momentum has been boosted and this will likely lead to further USD strength. We indicated, the next resistance level to watch is at 137.90. While USD rose to a fresh 2-week high of 136.93 yesterday, upward momentum has not improved further. USD must break and hold above 136.90 in the next 1-2 days or the chances of a move to 137.90 will rapidly diminish.”
Long
by FOREXN1
9
EUR/USD: Risks of 1.0500 being tested in the near term – INGEUR/USD trades in negative territory slightly below 1.0600. The pair could challenge the 1.0500 level, analysts at ING report. Hawkish expectations for ECB tightening to support EUR “Markets are currently pricing in around 130-140 bps of tightening before reaching the peak. This could offer some floor to the Euro.” “We expect any re-strengthening of the Dollar to see high-beta commodity currencies more at risk than the Euro for the time being. Still, the risks of 1.0500 being tested in the near term remain elevated.”
Short
by FOREXN1
28
XAU/USD bearish dominance continues.On Tuesday, the gold price fell back on the bear trail due to the re-gathering strength of the US Dollar. The market board saw a dominant trend of reassessing the Federal Reserve future rate hike path in a hawkish way. XAU/USD broke a five-day losing streak on Monday, which was just a small retracement on the way of the continuing downtrend for gold price. The bright metal is trading close to the round $1,800 figure, which provides immediate and psychological support. This week, a bunch of mid-tier United States macroeconomic releases could help shape how much more room gold price can have to the downside ahead of the crucial March 22 Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The market will be closely monitoring the next two weeks with Nonfarm Payrolls and Consumer Price Index releases, which should be more impactful. The US central bank will probably take all the data into account before delivering its next monetary policy plan, famously known as the dot plot. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey for February is the next big US macroeconomic release scheduled for 15:00 GMT, and will be scrutinized for more direction. Rather than the headline Consumer Confidence index, the one-year consumer inflation expectations could trigger a reaction. The US Dollar could lose interest and help Gold price stage a short-term recovery and vice versa, in case there is a pullback in this figure. On Monday, the US Census Bureau released the Durable Goods Orders data for January, which came out mixed and did not stage a big reaction from the markets. Gold price reacted modest-but-positively to this release as the US Dollar was somewhat sold across the board. The ISM will publish the Manufacturing PMI and the Services PMI on Wednesday and Friday, respectively, both at 15 GMT, which could be the most important releases of the week. If the ISM Services PMI report reaffirms that rising wage costs are feeding into accelerating price pressures in the sector, the US Dollar is likely to hold its ground against Gold. Hence, the Prices Paid Index component will be watched closely by market participants. The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are fully pricing in at least two more 25 basis points Federal Reserve rate hikes in March and May. Additionally, the probability of the Fed holding the policy rate unchanged in June stands at 25%. The market positioning suggests that the US Dollar doesn't have a lot of room on the upside, at least until the February jobs report and inflation data confirm or refute one more 25-bps hike in June. Investors will be watching the US Treasury bond yields, and 4% aligns as key resistance for the 10-year US T-bond yield. There could be a technical correction if that level stays intact. In that scenario, Gold price could turn north due to the inverse correlation with the US Treasury yields.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
11
NZD/USD faces a tough support at 0.6100 – UOBFurther selling pressure could motivate NZD/USD to challenge the solid support at the 0.6100 region in the next few weeks, note UOB . 24-hour view: “We expected NZD to weaken further yesterday but we noted, ‘oversold conditions suggest the major support at 0.6100 is unlikely to come under threat today’. We added, ‘There is another support at 0.6135’. NZD dropped to a low of 0.6132 before rebounding. The rebound amid oversold conditions suggests NZD has likely moved into a consolidation phase. In other words, NZD is likely to trade sideways today, expected to be between 0.6135 and 0.6195.”
Short
by FOREXN1
9
GOLD: A strong US dollar indicates a drop in the XAU/USD. As predicted in our previous idea, the XAU/USD is in a bearish trend with short pressure continuing. The gold price (XAU/USD) is still at its lowest level in two months, having fallen for five days in a row and printing a four-week low. Nonetheless, the yellow metal begins the week on the back foot, around $1,810, as bears cheer the strong US Dollar amid upbeat US economic data. Among the US data, the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) preferred inflation gauge offered a major blow to the XAU/USD price.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
26
EUR/USD could trade down to 1.0460 – INGEUR/USD lost more than 100 pips last week. Dollar strength is set to keep the pair heavy, economists at ING report. Like the Fed, the ECB remains very much in hawkish mode “Investors fully subscribe to the ECB's message of a 50 bps hike on 16 March and then price a further 80 bps of tightening into year-end. This should be the key difference between the Fed and the ECB cycles. We think the Fed could be in a position to cut by year-end, while the ECB looks likely to keep rates at their peak throughout the majority of 2024.” “For EUR/USD, we think the strong Dollar view will dominate. Expect 1.0500 to be tested, with a chance that it briefly trades down to the 1.0460.”
Short
by FOREXN1
18
NZD/USD: Double Top and Price Drop.NZD/USD falls to three-month lows, grinding near intraday lows. NZD/USD bears hold the reigns at the lowest levels since November 2022, down half a percent near 0.6130 early Monday, as negative New Zealand (NZ) drivers clash with US Dollar demand. However, NZ Retail Sales for the fourth quarter (Q4) fell -0.6% year on year, compared to 1.5% predicted and 0.4% previously. According to Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway, "when interest rates rise, I expect consumption to slow." Meanwhile, solid US inflation-linked data combined with Fed policymakers' support for higher rates to boost Fed fund futures above 5.30%, versus 5.10% forecast by the US central bank in December. The recent round of sanctions imposed by the West on Russia has heightened market fears of increased geopolitical tension, which has boosted demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven.
Short
by FOREXN1
11