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GOLD:Bears in command, all eyes on US PCE inflation.The price of gold continues to gradually decrease on Friday, despite a decline in 10-year US Treasury bond yields below 3.9% on Thursday. This has failed to trigger any gains for the bright metal, despite some slight downside limitation. The US Dollar remains strong in most of the market, which has contributed to the continued decline of gold prices. However, positive weekly Jobless Claims data has improved the market mood as the US labor market appears to be stable. Currently, gold prices are near year-to-date lows at around $1,820, which is serving as support. The market is now eagerly awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, scheduled for 13:30 GMT. Gold traders and investors will be watching the release closely, as Core PCE inflation is expected to rise by 0.4% on a monthly basis, but the annual figure is expected to decline to 4.1% in January from 4.4% in December. The reaction of the market should be clear, with lower-than-expected monthly PCE inflation weighing on the US Dollar and the opposite effect on the price of gold. Although the CPI report in January revealed that inflation remained sticky, it would be surprising to see this data have a long-lasting impact on markets.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
8
GOLD: As expected, the price fell... he price of gold continues its downward trend after a bearish Wednesday, with the metal facing pressure from the release of somewhat hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes. The US Dollar made gains against other currencies, and XAU/USD closed below a significant support level at $1,830 for the first time since January 3. Investors are now focused on Friday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. The FOMC Minutes revealed that all Federal Reserve policymakers agreed that more rate hikes would be necessary to achieve inflation objectives, with "a few participants" even suggesting interest rates should be raised by 50 basis points, which would accelerate the tightening of monetary policy. This hawkish tone helped US Treasury bond yields rally, which in turn supported the USD and weighed on the price of gold. Thursday's economic calendar includes the second reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the last quarter of 2022, but the market does not expect any changes to the preliminary estimate of 2.9% growth. The weekly Jobless Claims release and some speeches from Federal Reserve officials could bring some action to the price of gold. However, the most significant economic data to be released is the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) PCE Price Index on Friday. Gold traders and investors will closely monitor the data release, as Core PCE inflation is expected to rise by 0.4% on a monthly basis, but the annual figure is predicted to decline to 4.1% in January from 4.4% in December. The market reaction is expected to be straightforward, with softer-than-expected monthly PCE inflation weighing on the US Dollar and vice versa, with the price of gold reacting in the opposite direction. Given that the CPI report already revealed sticky inflation in January, it would be surprising if this data had a long-lasting impact on markets. The risks to the price of gold are skewed to the downside.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
13
EUR/USD: As expected, the price fell... The EUR/USD pair has been struggling as sellers keep the price subdued, causing it to pierce the 1.0600 support level and hit new multi-week lows on Thursday. While the USD remains the focus, there is little news to influence the pair, leaving speculation around the Fed's tighter-for-longer stance as the primary driver of sentiment. However, expectations of rate hikes by both the ECB and the Fed in March appear firm. On the domestic front, final figures for inflation in January in the broader Euroland will be an important event, along with revisions of Q4 GDP Growth Rate, Initial Claims, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index later in the NA session. Moving forward, price action around the European currency is likely to continue to follow dollar dynamics and the potential next moves from the ECB after another 50 bps rate raise in March. While concerns about a recession in the euro area have dwindled, they still remain a significant driver of the ongoing recovery in the single currency, along with the hawkish narrative from the ECB. Key events this week include the EMU Final Inflation Rate on Thursday and Germany's Final Q4 GDP Growth Rate and GfK Consumer Confidence on Friday. However, issues such as the continuation of the ECB hiking cycle, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the region's growth prospects and inflation outlook, and the risks of inflation becoming entrenched are also on the back boiler.
Short
by FOREXN1
6
USD/CAD: Possible new bullish impulse in the next few days.The USD/CAD is barely unchanged ahead of the FOMC’s minutes release, though slightly tilted to the downside with losses of 0.05%. Traders worried that the Fed would raise rates further than expected, dampening the market mood during the last couple of weeks. At the time of this writing, the USD/CAD is trading at around 1.3539. Following the breakout of a dynamic trendline, the price continues to rise from the last pullback on the uptrend scenario's dynamic trendline. The price may continue to grow in the next few hours and days.
Long
by FOREXN1
8
EUR/USD: The price continues to fall as pessimism grows. The EUR/USD sustains the pessimism seen at the start of the week and trades slightly on the defensive on Tuesday, despite the greenback's minor recovery, as US markets resume normal activity following Monday's holiday. There is no new information on the macro scenario for the pair, which continues to monitor developments/messages from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve when it comes to the future interest rate decisions, particularly beyond the approaching March events. EUR/USD loses traction amid the modest rise in the greenback on Tuesday, as the release of major results from fundamentals on both sides of the Atlantic is set to take center stage. Meanwhile, market activity around the European currency should continue to closely track dollar dynamics, as well as the ECB's likely next actions as the bank has already forecasted another 50 basis point rate hike at the March event. Returning to the eurozone, recession fears appear to be fading, but they remain a key driver of the single currency's ongoing recovery as well as the ECB's hawkish narrative.
Short
by FOREXN1
31
GOLD:Price continue To Drop - Bearish Continuation.When risk aversion joins the return of full markets to support the US Dollar, the gold price (XAU/USD) falls approaching the previous weekly low, also the lowest since late December. Upbeat US Treasury bond yields may be supporting the greenback while impacting on the XAU/USD. But, geopolitical concerns about China and Russia appear to be driving the newest push toward risk avoidance. With the good US data, there is renewed anxiety about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish move. Yet, the cautious mood ahead of the preliminary readings of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for February appears to be a threat to the Gold price. The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) Monetary Policy Meeting on Wednesday are also noteworthy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
22
The XAU/USD pair falls below $1,840 as geopolitical worries.In the Asian session, the gold price (XAU/USD) fell to about $1,837.90 after providing a negative break of the consolidation built in a limited range of around $1,844.00. The precious metal has been provided amid rising geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, as well as North Korean missile launches within Japan's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Investors should brace themselves for extreme volatility, as the US financial markets will be closed on Monday owing to Presidents' Day. Nevertheless, S&P500 futures have fallen further amid increased expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its tight policy stance, indicating a decline in the risk-aversion theme.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
22
EUR/USD:FOMC minutes required to see a break towards 1.05 – INGOn Friday, the EUR/USD recovered from a low of 1.0613. ING economists feel that a hawkish set of FOMC minutes is required to push the pair below 1.05. This week's focus is on PMIs. "The Eurozone's focus this week will be on business confidence, as measured by PMIs and the German Ifo. The PMI results are expected to linger around 50, and the market may pay closer attention to the Chinese February PMI readings, which will be released later next week." "The Dollar rise may have gone far enough for the time being, as EUR/USD found decent demand ahead of 1.06. It will almost certainly need a hawkish set of FOMC minutes on Wednesday for EUR/USD to break towards 1.05, where we expect robust demand ahead of a EUR/USD surge in the second quarter."
Short
by FOREXN1
12
BITCOIN: Trend is your friend.Bitcoin's technical indicators support the newly formed bullish narrative. Traders should keep a watch on Bitcoin because an upsurge and volatility are likely. Bitcoin's price may rise once more. Bitcoin is trading in a range after gaining 5% on January 17. According to the Binance exchange API, the 5% uptick saw the most Bitcoin transactions this year, with $495,000 transactions taking place during the uptick. The rise came just one day after the bears forged a 3% loss, which also happened to be the highest volume day at the time, with around $450,000 in transactions. On January 17, the bearish candle was virtually totally reversed as the bulls closed above the previous day's opening price of $24,569. A new surge higher into the weekly closing for BTC price coincides with questions about the motivations of high-volume Bitcoin exchange dealers. Bitcoin hit $25,000 for the third time on Feb. 19 as the crucial weekly close loomed.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOREXN1
3
USD/CAD: Short Momentum, price will grow. ✅USD/CAD reverses Friday's corrective decline from a 1.5-month high, rising 0.08% intraday near 1.3490 during the five-day rally to early Monday. The Loonie pair's recent advances could be attributed to lower prices for Canada's primary export item, WTI Crude Oil, as well as the market's risk-off mindset, which supports US Dollar demand. It should be noted, however, that the vacation in the United States and Canada limits immediate swings in the currency during a sluggish Asian session. WTI crude oil, on the other hand, prints a six-day downtrend near $76.50 as the US Dollar strengthens alongside an increase in US crude oil stockpiles and mounting fears of quicker Fed rate hikes. In other news, Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Fumio Kishida has called for an emergency United Nations (UN) Security Council meeting in response to North Korea's firing of two ballistic missiles towards Tokyo, both of which landed outside Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). On the same vein, the failure of the most recent meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and China's top diplomat Wang Yi to reestablish US-China relations. The explanation could be linked to comments made by a Chinese envoy that the US must alter course and repair the harm done to Sino-US relations by indiscriminate use of force. On the same topic, US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield stated on Sunday that China would cross a "red line" if it opted to supply Russia with lethal military aid for its invasion of Ukraine. Concerning central banks, better-than-expected readings of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales, together with previously reported upbeat readings of employment and output data, aided the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials in remaining hawkish. On the other hand, Bank of Canada (BoC) policymakers indicated a willingness to delay rate hikes due to the negative repercussions for the economy. Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 Futures show minor losses, despite Wall Street finishing neutral. It's worth mentioning that in the last week, US 10-year Treasury bond rates surged to their highest levels since early November, assisting the DXY to print a three-week rise. Moving on, a light schedule and off in the US and Canada may limit quick swings ahead of the BoC CPI on Tuesday and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes on Wednesday. If Fed policymakers stay hawkish and Canada's inflation rate decreases, the USD/CAD could rise further.
Long
by FOREXN1
8
GOLD:Price continue to Drop As Predicted. SHORT continuationAs positive economic data from the United States pushes up the US dollar, the price of gold (XAU/USD) remains subdued. Market analysts predict that gold may face additional pressure if the US dollar continues to strengthen. Despite a brief uptick in the price of gold earlier in the day, the precious metal quickly returned to its downward trajectory. The US dollar, buoyed by strong retail sales and industrial production numbers, has kept gold prices in check. The economic data suggests that the US economy is rebounding strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic, bolstering the greenback. Market analysts believe that gold prices may continue to suffer in the short-term as investors flock to the US dollar, which is viewed as a safe-haven asset. However, in the long-term, gold prices may rebound as inflation concerns mount and investors look to hedge against rising prices. In summary, the price of gold remains under pressure as the US dollar gains strength on the back of upbeat economic data. While the short-term outlook for gold remains muted, there may be opportunities for investors to capitalize on potential long-term gains.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
34
EUR/USD:The direction of travel is 1.0450/1.0500 area – INGEUR/USD closed below 1.0700 on Thursday. Economists at ING believe that the pair could plummet to the 1.0450/1.0500 zone. Temporary downside to EUR/USD “The two-year EUR/USD swap differential has widened back out to levels last seen in mid-December. This now stands at -150 bps having narrowed to -110 bps at the start of this month. Arguably this spread should not narrow in too much more (unless the market thinks that Fed Funds will end the year near 5.50%), meaning that EUR/USD may not have to fall too much more. We would, however, say the direction of travel is to the 1.0450/1.0500 area, which may be the strongest Dollar level of the year for Eurozone corporates.” “There is not too much on the Eurozone calendar today apart from the December current account figure and the market seems to be ignoring yesterday's comments from ECB dove, Fabio Panetta, favouring the ECB to move in 25 bps rather than 50 bps increments.”
Short
by FOREXN1
16
TESLA: Fundamental Analysis + NEXT TargetAccording to reports, Tesla is about to recall more than 350,000 vehicles equipped with driver assistance software due to government concerns that the system could cause accidents. At first glance, the solution appears straightforward. However, it involves software that Musk described as "vital" to the company's survival last year. Of course, it could raise more questions about Tesla's autopilot systems. Investors have no reason to sell TSLA stock as a result of this news. However, this is something that will need to be closely monitored in the coming months. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued a recall notice yesterday, stating that Tesla's self-driving software package "may allow the vehicle to behave unsafely at intersections," adding that the system "may not respond sufficiently to changes in posted speed limits or inadequately account for driver adjustments to speed the vehicle to exceed posted speed limits." In response, Tesla is voluntarily recalling the vehicles and intends to resolve the issue via an over-the-air (OTA) firmware update. The Model S, Model X, Model 3, and Model Y equipped with the Full-Self-Driving beta are affected by the recall. Despite the name "Full Self-Driving," it does not make a Tesla car fully autonomous, and the company has long faced questions about the system's marketing and how owners use it. The software has proven to be a profitable addition for Tesla: the option currently costs $15,000, or $199 per month in the United States. Tesla made no response to the NHTSA notice. Tesla has specified 18 warranty claims that are likely to be related to the circumstances described by NHTSA, and the company is not aware of any injuries or deaths related to those conditions, according to the notice. Surprisingly, Tesla stock barely reacted to the announcement, possibly due to the recall notice's relatively simple solution. Tesla, like many other automakers, conducts recalls to address a variety of issues. However, this does not mean that investors can rest easy and ignore the situation. Autopilot or Full Self-Driving technology is a key component of Tesla's case and the primary reason the company's valuation outperforms the rest of the industry. Musk stated in a 2022 interview that addressing full autonomous driving was "extremely important" for the company, stating that "it's really the difference between whether Tesla is worth a lot of money or not worth anything." The NHTSA said in a statement that it would continue to monitor the recall to ensure that Tesla's measures were effective, and that a broader investigation into Tesla's software systems remained open and active. Government officials expressed concern that the technology would force drivers to be less cautious than is necessary to ensure their safety. There's also a chance that Tesla will have to invest in new equipment to address the government's concerns, which could mean a refund or a costly upgrade for hundreds of thousands of cars already on the road whose owners have purchased the service. Some of the recall conditions, such as requiring Autopilot to limit the speed of Tesla vehicles to a predetermined limit, may make Autopilot less appealing to consumers. Nothing in this news suggests that Tesla is nearing the end of its life cycle. However, for the stock to reach the potential that some believe it has, the company must survive this period of government scrutiny. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest predicted in 2022 that Tesla stock could be worth $4,600 per share - more than 20 times its current price - by 2026, assuming robot cabs are in service by then. Even in Ark's worst-case scenario, in which Tesla's stock price is set at $2,900, autonomous revenue is expected to be around $50 billion by 2026. As the government takes action, Tesla is likely to spend more time tweaking existing systems and less time developing new ones, reducing the company's chances of meeting Ark's 2026 goal. As a result, Tesla's other initiatives, such as its cyber truck, are even more important for growth. Tesla investors do not need to get out of the way, but they should exercise caution given the challenges that lie ahead.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by FOREXN1
7
GOLD:Hits a monthly low amid high US Treasury bond yields.The gold price (XAU/USD) is still around $1,835 after posting the biggest daily drop in two weeks near the 1.5-month low. The yellow metal reflects the market's inaction on Thursday morning. Nonetheless, it remains on the bear's radar in the face of firmer US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar in the face of hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. Gold price falls as US data propels Treasury bond yields, US Dollar Despite recent inaction, the gold price remains on the bear's radar as upbeat US economic data underpins the hawkish bias surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next moves and fuels US Treasury bond yields, as well as the US Dollar. Nonetheless, US retail sales increased by 3.0% year on year in January, compared to 1.8% expected and -1.1% previously. Furthermore, Retail Sales Excluding Autos increased by 2.3% in the same period, exceeding analysts' expectations of +0.8%. Similarly, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for February rose to a three-month high of -5.8 from -18.0 expected and -32.9 market forecasts. Alternatively, the US Industrial Production marked 0.0% MoM figures for January, compared to analysts' estimates of 0.5% and -0.7% previous readings, but failed to counteract the Fed's (Fed) hawkish bias. In light of the data, US 10-year Treasury bond yields oscillate around a six-week high set the previous day, while bulls in the US Dollar Index (DXY) take a breather after reaching a 1.5-month high as key US data points to a further increase in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rates. However, market bets on the Fed's next moves, according to Reuters' FEDWATCH tool, suggest that US central bank rates will peak in July around 5.25%, versus the December Federal Reserve prediction of 5.10%. Geopolitical tensions and a light calendar are also weighing on the XAU/USD. Aside from the data-backed broad US Dollar strength, the lack of major catalysts, ongoing US-China tensions, and US political risks all put downward pressure on the gold price. The ongoing discussion about the balloon shooting and the story behind the US-China spying has recently soured the mood. Fears of a US debt-ceiling crisis, as warned by the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on Wednesday, may be along the same lines. There is nothing significant to watch for gold traders ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Moving on, gold traders can be entertained by second-tier US data on the housing market, industrial activity, and producer prices ahead of next week's Minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. It's worth noting that the recent increase in Fed bets, combined with positive data, keeps XAU/USD bulls optimistic until then.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
27