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AUD/USD Declines Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Key Economic DatThe Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading lower against the US Dollar (USD) after key economic data released on Thursday added downward pressure to the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair. The market is also reacting to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with risk appetite fading as concerns mount. According to the Israeli Broadcasting Authority (IBA), Israel’s security cabinet has decided to issue a strong response to a recent Iranian attack, which saw Iran launch over 200 ballistic missiles and drone strikes on Israel on Tuesday night. This escalating conflict has weighed heavily on risk assets like the Australian dollar, as investors move toward safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar in times of geopolitical instability. Geopolitical Tensions Drive Risk-Off Sentiment The increased volatility in the Middle East is driving investors to reassess their exposure to risk-sensitive assets, with the AUD/USD pair feeling the impact. Rising tensions between Israel and Iran have spooked markets, dampening risk appetite and pushing traders toward safe-haven currencies like the US dollar. As geopolitical risks escalate, risk-off sentiment is likely to continue pressuring the Australian dollar, which is highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. Key Economic Data Adds to AUD's Weakness Adding to the AUD’s woes, the recent economic data released on Thursday has contributed to its decline against the USD. The data has underscored the challenges facing the Australian economy, with weaker-than-expected results further diminishing the currency’s appeal. In contrast, the US dollar has remained buoyant, supported by stronger economic fundamentals and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve. Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Faces Further Downside From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair reversed after touching a key Supply area, which aligned with our previous forecast. This reversal is consistent with the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows that retail traders have aggressively increased their long positions, typically a contrarian indicator signaling further downside. The pair is now poised for a potential continuation of the downtrend, with bears likely eyeing additional levels of support as the US dollar strengthens amid both geopolitical concerns and a favorable economic backdrop. Conclusion: Bearish Outlook for AUD/USD The combination of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and weaker domestic economic data has placed significant pressure on the Australian dollar. As risk sentiment continues to shift away from risk-sensitive assets like the AUD, the pair is likely to experience further downside, especially if geopolitical risks escalate and the US dollar remains strong. Traders should monitor developments in the Middle East closely, as well as any further economic data that could influence the direction of the AUD/USD pair. For now, the bearish momentum remains intact, and the pair could see continued weakness in the near term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD Decline Amid Strong US Dollar Ahead of Key Economic DataAs forecasted in our previous analysis, the EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure, continuing its descent over the past two days, reaching around 1.09300 during the London session. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail traders remain bullish on the pair. Despite this, the price is approaching one of the two demand areas we've identified, though we are currently awaiting a possible bullish impulse if the price drops to the lower demand zone. US Dollar Strength and Market Sentiment Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains near its highest level since mid-August as traders have adjusted their expectations regarding a potential 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. The likelihood of such a cut has been largely priced out, with current market sentiment suggesting a 20% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. This expectation was reinforced by the hawkish tone in the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday, which underpinned the USD's strength. DXY ( USD ) Daily Chart The elevated yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, which remains above the 4% threshold, continues to support the US Dollar, acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. The stronger USD, coupled with market sentiment around potential Fed actions, has weighed heavily on the Euro in recent sessions. Upcoming Economic Data and Market Impact Today brings several important economic releases that could inject volatility into the market, including: Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) CPI y/y CPI m/m Unemployment Claims These reports are key indicators of inflation and employment in the United States, and they could shift the market's outlook for the US Dollar. Currently, the forecasts suggest that the data may work against the USD, potentially leading to an initial bullish move in EUR/USD. However, the ultimate impact will depend on how closely the actual data aligns with expectations. Our Strategy: Waiting for a Key Demand Support At this time, we are not opening any positions as we await the price to reach the lowest demand support level. A potential bullish reversal may occur once this level is tested, and we’ll be closely monitoring market movements following today's key economic data releases. Patience remains essential as we look for confirmation of a potential bullish setup. Conclusion The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trend, driven by USD strength amid expectations of steady interest rates from the Federal Reserve. As key economic data is released today, we anticipate increased market volatility, which could present trading opportunities. For now, we are waiting for the pair to reach critical demand levels before considering any new positions. Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to monitor market developments. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EURUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
7
USD/JPY Poised for Gains as DXY StrengthensThe US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its upward momentum as Treasury yields recover from recent losses, bolstering the Greenback’s strength. However, this rally may soon face headwinds, with growing market expectations of additional rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. Traders are now focusing on the upcoming US Flash Manufacturing PMI, which is due for release within the hour. The PMI data will offer a fresh perspective on the health of the US manufacturing sector, and any surprise in the numbers could influence the Greenback’s near-term trajectory. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a slight improvement, reflecting stabilizing economic conditions, but traders remain alert for any deviations from the forecast. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 50% probability that the Fed could reduce rates by as much as 75 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.0-4.25% by the end of the year. This potential easing has kept some investors cautious, as it could curb the USD’s long-term gains. From a technical standpoint, we are seeing a key opportunity in the USD/JPY pair, which has rebounded from a strong demand area. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are still heavily short on the USD/JPY, while institutional "smart money" appears to be shifting its stance, reducing its bearish exposure. This setup aligns with our previous analysis, where we highlighted the potential for a long position as the pair regains upward momentum. As the USD/JPY continues to rebound from this demand zone, the conditions remain favorable for a long trade. The shift in sentiment among institutional traders, combined with the recovery in Treasury yields and the strength of the DXY, supports the case for further upside. However, traders should remain cautious as the Fed’s rate cut expectations may still influence broader USD sentiment in the months ahead. For now, the focus remains on the US PMI release and its impact on both Treasury yields and the USD. Should the data come in stronger than expected, it could provide additional fuel for the DXY’s rally, further reinforcing the bullish outlook for USD/JPY. Conversely, weaker-than-expected PMI data could reignite concerns about the Fed’s dovish outlook, potentially pausing the Greenback's current rally. We continue to monitor the situation closely, with a bullish setup in USD/JPY remaining a key focus in the near term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
NZD/USD Bears Eye Deeper Correction Amid Positive US JOLTS ReporThe NZD/USD pair continues its bearish trajectory following the release of strong US JOLTS Job Openings data yesterday. This has intensified market speculation about the resilience of the US labor market, which could lead to further tightening by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the Kiwi dollar has come under pressure, with bears targeting a deeper correction. In our previous forecast: we highlighted the potential for a drop after NZD/USD encountered strong resistance in a key supply zone. The price has continued its downward momentum, confirming our analysis, and the Commitment of Traders (COT) report further supports a bearish continuation, with commercial hedgers reducing their long positions. The market dynamics show potential for the trend to reach our second take-profit target. Fundamental Outlook: Labor Market Signals Weigh on Kiwi The US JOLTS report, showing unexpectedly high job openings, signals strength in the labor market. This is significant because robust employment data often leads to increased expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. As the central bank looks to combat inflation while maintaining economic stability, positive labor indicators like these reinforce the likelihood of interest rates remaining elevated for an extended period. On the New Zealand side, a mixed economic outlook and weakening demand for riskier assets have further pressured the NZD. With inflation in check but economic growth showing signs of stagnation, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is not expected to be as aggressive as the Fed in future monetary policy moves. This policy divergence creates a favorable environment for NZD/USD bears. COT Report Signals Further Downside The COT report confirms that the institutional market is shifting towards further bearish positions in NZD/USD. Commercial traders have been reducing their long exposure, while speculators are increasingly taking short positions. This sentiment, combined with the technical rejection in the supply area, suggests that the trend is far from over. Key Data to Watch: US Unemployment Claims Today, traders will be closely watching the release of **US Unemployment Claims** data. If the numbers come in better than expected—indicating a stronger labor market—this could further bolster the US dollar and drive NZD/USD lower. A positive surprise in the data would support the case for the Fed to maintain its current stance on interest rates, thus enhancing the bearish outlook for NZD/USD. Technical Analysis: Deeper Correction in Sight Technically, the NZD/USD remains under pressure after its rejection at the supply area. The price is trending below key moving averages, and momentum indicators show bearish divergence, suggesting that the downside momentum is still strong. A break below the recent low could open the door for further losses. In conclusion, NZD/USD bears are firmly in control, and with favorable economic data from the US, a deeper correction seems likely. Traders should keep an eye on today’s Unemployment Claims report for further clues on the pair’s direction. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Faces Pressure as USD Strengthens Ahead of US PCE DataThe EUR/USD pair experienced selling pressure on Friday, reversing part of the gains made in the previous session. The US Dollar (USD) found renewed strength as traders repositioned ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, a key measure of inflation that could influence the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. This USD rebound played a significant role in dragging the EUR/USD lower, especially as the Euro approached a critical technical zone. The pair retested a supply area, forming a potential Double Top pattern a classic indicator of weakening momentum and an early sign of a bearish reversal. This technical setup suggests that the recent bullish move might be losing traction. Moreover, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are heavily bullish on the Euro. This often signals a contrarian opportunity, as extreme retail sentiment can precede a market reversal, with institutional traders typically positioning themselves in the opposite direction. With both technical and sentiment indicators aligning, we are anticipating a retracement in the EUR/USD pair. The current USD strength, coupled with a bearish chart pattern and aggressive retail optimism, supports the likelihood of a pullback in the near term. The release of the PCE inflation data could act as a catalyst, potentially increasing market volatility and applying additional pressure on the Euro. In summary, we expect the EUR/USD to face further downside risks as the USD gains traction. The technical setup and market sentiment suggest that the pair could retrace from current levels, especially if the upcoming US inflation data favors continued USD strength. We remain cautious and are watching for opportunities to position for a retracement. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Decline, USD Gains Momentum as Strong Job DataThe US labor market continues to exhibit strength, bolstering the US dollar as recent data beats expectations. The US JOLTS Job Openings report, released on Tuesday, showed a surprising increase of 329K job openings, rising from a revised 7.711 million in July to 8.040 million in August. This unexpected surge reinforces the resilience of the US economy, providing near-term support to the US dollar. Additionally, today's ADP private sector survey reported that 143K jobs were added in September, exceeding the 120K forecast, while August's reading was revised upward from 99K to 103K. These positive labor market signals have intensified the dollar's bullish momentum, particularly against the euro. As we previously forecasted for EUR/USD, the price rejected our key Supply area and has already reached the first take-profit target. With the pair edging closer to our second target, the US dollar's strength looks set to drive EUR/USD lower, with the next potential support sitting at the 1.09500 area. Strong US Labor Data Drives Dollar Higher The JOLTS and ADP reports reflect the robustness of the US labor market, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to maintain higher interest rates. With job openings and private sector employment both outperforming expectations, market sentiment is increasingly favoring the US dollar as investors anticipate the Fed may continue its hawkish stance. The surge in job openings suggests that demand for labor remains high, which could keep inflationary pressures elevated and justify further rate hikes or prolonged tight monetary policy. Likewise, the ADP data highlights sustained private-sector job growth, reinforcing the overall strength of the labor market and lending further support to the greenback. EUR/USD Under Pressure: Aiming for 1.09500? On the technical front, EUR/USD remains under pressure after rejecting the Supply area as anticipated in our earlier forecast. The pair has already hit the first take-profit level, and further downside appears likely if today's US Unemployment Claims report comes in better than expected. A less severe unemployment figure compared to the forecast would strengthen the dollar further, pushing EUR/USD toward the 1.09500 support zone. The pair has been trending lower due to a combination of strong US economic data and a weaker euro, as the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a more cautious approach to monetary policy. This divergence between the Fed and the ECB has weighed heavily on the euro, and with US data continuing to outperform, the trend could persist in the near term. Key Data to Watch: US Unemployment Claims Today, the market will focus on the release of US Unemployment Claims data, which could further influence the direction of EUR/USD. Should the report come in better than forecast, indicating a continued decline in unemployment, the dollar would likely strengthen further, pushing the pair closer to the 1.09500 mark. In conclusion, the combination of strong US labor data and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve is fueling dollar strength, pressuring EUR/USD lower. If today's unemployment claims report aligns with the recent positive trend in US employment, a continuation of the bearish momentum could drive the pair to our next target. Traders should watch the unemployment claims release for further confirmation of this downward move. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Faces Downside as Supply Zone Signals Possible ReversalThe GBP/USD pair is trading with a mild negative bias near 1.3370 during Tuesday's London session, as the British Pound (GBP) struggles to gain momentum. Comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Jonathan Greene have raised concerns about potential price pressures, with Greene noting that strong UK consumer spending could further fuel inflation. This has kept the pair under pressure, especially after encountering a key supply area last week, where the price now seems poised for a possible reversal. At the same time, less dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell have provided support for the US Dollar (USD), dragging the GBP/USD pair lower. Powell’s comments, hinting at a more cautious approach to rate cuts, have boosted the Greenback, creating headwinds for the Pound. Investors are now bracing for the release of the US September ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data later today, as well as speeches from Fed officials Raphael Bostic and Lisa Cook. These events are likely to provide further insights into the Fed’s future policy direction and could impact the pair's next move. From a sentiment perspective, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders remain extremely bullish on the GBP/USD pair, while larger institutional players are adopting a more cautious stance. This divergence in sentiment could signal a potential shift, with smart money seemingly positioning for a reversal rather than continuing the bullish trend. Technically, the pair is struggling to break past the supply zone identified last week, indicating a possible downward correction. If the GBP/USD fails to hold above 1.3370, the pair could see further losses, especially if the upcoming US data supports the Greenback. In conclusion, GBP/USD faces downside risks in the near term as investors weigh the impact of potential price pressures in the UK and a strengthening US Dollar. With key economic data and Fed speeches on the horizon, the market is preparing for possible volatility. Retail traders remain bullish, but caution from institutional players suggests a reversal could be on the horizon. Traders should closely monitor the supply area for signs of a sustained bearish move. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Pulls Back as USD Strengthens Ahead of Core PCE DataThe GBP/USD pair edged lower during the Asian session on Friday, retreating from the highest levels it had reached since March 2022, around the 1.3435 region, which was touched the previous day. The decline was largely driven by a technical reversal after the pair tested a key daily supply-demand zone. This move coincides with data from the latest **Commitment of Traders (COT) report**, which shows that retail traders remain strongly bullish on the GBP. Despite the bullish positioning from retailers, the pair saw a pullback as the market anticipates important economic data out of the United States, including the **Core PCE Price Index** for the month of November. A positive reading from this inflation gauge could add further support to the US Dollar (USD) and push the GBP/USD pair lower. The USD is expected to strengthen if the data signals persistent inflationary pressures, which could keep the Federal Reserve cautious about loosening monetary policy too quickly. However, expectations regarding the Bank of England (BoE) are playing a counterbalancing role. The BoE is widely seen as taking a more gradual approach to cutting rates compared to the US Federal Reserve, which could help support the British Pound (GBP) in the medium term and limit losses for the GBP/USD pair. Still, with immediate market momentum and potential upside for the USD, the pair remains under pressure in the short term. In light of these developments, we are maintaining a **short position** on GBP/USD, as the combination of technical resistance and USD strength points to further downside in the near future. While GBP sentiment remains supported by BoE policy expectations, today's price action suggests that USD demand is likely to drive the pair lower, especially with key data releases on the horizon. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Extends Losses as USD Strengthens, Bearish Impulse FocusThe EUR/USD pair has extended its decline for a third consecutive day, falling in line with our previous forecast. The US Dollar (USD) has gained traction, supported by a risk-off market sentiment and recent comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. On Monday, Powell downplayed expectations of a significant 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, indicating that the central bank is not in a hurry to lower rates aggressively. His cautious tone has further bolstered the Dollar, keeping pressure on the Euro. From a broader perspective, the main scenario for EUR/USD remains unchanged from what was outlined in previous analyses. We are still looking for a potential new bearish impulse, particularly as markets anticipate the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report later today. This key economic indicator could further influence the pair’s movement, with stronger-than-expected data likely boosting the USD and pushing the EUR/USD lower. Technically, the pair is approaching our second take profit target as the bearish momentum continues. The current outlook suggests further downside potential, especially if today’s ADP report supports the case for a resilient US labor market, reinforcing the strength of the USD. In conclusion, with the EUR/USD pair continuing its downward trend and the USD benefiting from Powell’s cautious stance, we anticipate further bearish action. The release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report today could provide the catalyst needed to reach our second take profit target. Traders should remain vigilant, as the bearish scenario is still in play and could gain momentum following today’s data. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
AUD/USD Reaches Key Supply Area, possible ReversalThe AUD/USD pair has reached our identified supply area, coinciding with the start of the London session. A rejection candle has formed, signaling a potential reversal, with the spike briefly hitting 0.6872 before pulling back. This price action suggests that sellers are stepping in at this level, creating a possible reversal opportunity. Traders are now watching closely for further confirmation of a bearish move. Today, the US CB Consumer Confidence report is set to be released, and this key economic indicator could provide additional momentum for the US Dollar. A stronger-than-expected reading may further bolster the USD, potentially driving the AUD/USD lower and continuing its downward trajectory. With the market's focus on the upcoming US data, we remain poised for a potential short setup in anticipation of a reversal in the AUD/USD pair. Traders should keep a close eye on both the technical patterns and the economic news to confirm entry points. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
7
NZD/USD Hits Supply Level,Potential Double Top Formation SignalsAs forecasted in our recent analysis, the NZD/USD pair has reached the key supply level around 0.6230. At this level, a potential double top formation is emerging, which, in confluence with the supply area, suggests that a retracement may be on the horizon. Adding further weight to the potential for a pullback, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are heavily long on the NZD/USD, which often serves as a contrarian indicator when combined with technical signals like the double top pattern. Today's focus for investors will be on the preliminary US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for September, which could provide more clues for the next movement in the NZD/USD pair. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to tick up slightly to 48.6 in September from 47.9 in August, signaling a continued contraction in the sector but at a slower pace. Meanwhile, the Services PMI is projected to slip marginally to 55.3 in September from 55.7 in August, indicating a still-expanding services sector, though at a slower rate. Given the current technical setup at the supply zone and the economic backdrop, we are looking for a short setup on NZD/USD, anticipating further downside pressure. The likelihood of a stronger USD could rise, particularly if today's PMI data supports the case for US economic resilience, contrasting with weakness in other major economies like Germany, where the Flash Manufacturing PMI has disappointed markets. As the EUR/USD continues to fall following poor German data, further strengthening of the USD could weigh on the NZD/USD pair, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The combination of retail traders' long positions, a possible double top formation at the supply zone, and positive momentum in the USD positions the pair for a potential retracement, offering a favorable opportunity for short-term bearish setups. Traders should watch today's PMI releases closely, as any stronger-than-expected results from the US could amplify USD strength and accelerate the anticipated pullback in the NZD/USD pair. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Reverses at Supply Level Amid German PMI WeaknessGermany’s Manufacturing PMI continued its decline, dropping to 40.3 in September, falling short of the forecast of 42.4. This latest figure signals ongoing weakness in Europe’s largest economy, as the manufacturing sector struggles with reduced demand and broader economic challenges. The PMI contraction adds further pressure to the already fragile outlook for the Eurozone, and it has contributed to the recent bearish moves in the EUR/USD pair. As anticipated in our recent analysis, the EUR/USD reacted sharply to the supply level around 1.11500, starting a reversal following the weak data. The currency pair’s behavior confirms the importance of this key resistance area, which has once again acted as a barrier to further gains. The reversal gained momentum as the Services PMI for the German economy also disappointed, falling to 50.6 in September, below the expected 51.0. The combined weakness in both manufacturing and services sectors signals a broader slowdown in the German economy, weighing on the Euro. Adding to the bearish outlook for the EUR/USD, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows a clear divergence in sentiment between retail traders and institutional investors. Retail traders remain largely long on the EUR/USD, reflecting optimism that the Euro will recover. However, "Smart Money" — large institutional traders — continue to hold a bearish position, suggesting that they expect further downside for the pair. This contrast in positioning underscores the potential for more weakness in the Euro, particularly if the economic data from Germany and the Eurozone continues to disappoint. As smart money maintains a bearish stance and the EUR/USD begins its reversal, traders should remain cautious of potential short-term rallies and focus on the broader downtrend that seems to be forming. Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on future economic data releases and central bank decisions, as these will likely shape the next leg of the EUR/USD’s movement. For now, the pair appears set to continue its downward trend, with the 1.11500 supply level serving as a strong point of resistance. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD Breaks Records,Overbought Signals Hint at Scalping ReversalGold surged to a new all-time high near $2,610 on Friday as expectations grew that global central banks will join the Federal Reserve (Fed) in easing monetary policy and cutting interest rates. Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by the prospect of lower interest rates, which diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-paying assets like gold. This surge in gold’s value is largely attributed to the growing consensus that central banks worldwide will follow the Fed's lead in slashing rates to stimulate economic growth. Lower interest rates typically favor gold, as they make alternative interest-bearing investments less attractive. With fewer benefits from higher-yielding assets, gold becomes a more appealing choice for investors looking to protect their wealth in an environment of falling rates. However, as gold reaches new highs, there’s a caveat: when access to gold becomes easier, it reduces the perceived value of holding it, as the scarcity that once made the asset so desirable begins to wane. Amid this record-breaking rally, we’ve noticed overbought conditions in the gold market, signaling a potential opportunity for scalpers. A short-term bearish setup is forming as gold nears a technical exhaustion point. The sharp rise in price has pushed gold into overbought territory, which often precedes a pullback or reversal. This presents a lucrative opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on a quick price correction. From a technical standpoint, gold is showing signs of a potential reversal, as momentum indicators flash warning signals of an impending price downturn. Scalpers and short-term traders may find an attractive entry point for a bearish trade, particularly if gold fails to maintain its new record high and starts retreating toward key support levels. While the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to global monetary easing, in the short term, market conditions may favor a pullback. Traders looking for a short-term bearish setup should monitor key resistance levels and momentum indicators for confirmation of a reversal. With gold hovering near its peak, the potential for a temporary correction is becoming increasingly likely, making it a prime target for short-term profit opportunities. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
2
NZD/USD Rises Ahead of Fed Decision, Reversal Risk LoomsNZD/USD has appreciated in recent trading sessions, supported by improved global risk sentiment as markets anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. However, while the New Zealand dollar has gained momentum, the outlook for the pair remains uncertain, with critical U.S. economic data expected today that could significantly impact all currency pairs trading against the U.S. dollar. Key Market Drivers: Fed and U.S. Economic News The Federal Funds Rate decision and the accompanying FOMC statement later this week are at the center of market attention. The potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve has already fueled a wave of optimism, boosting the New Zealand dollar. However, traders remain cautious as today’s U.S. economic news, including inflation and employment data, may provide critical insights into the strength of the U.S. economy ahead of the rate decision. Any significant surprises in today's economic reports could shift sentiment across all USD pairs, including NZD/USD, potentially creating increased volatility leading up to Wednesday's announcement. Technical Outlook: Overbought Conditions Raise Reversal Risk From a technical perspective, NZD/USD is currently in overbought territory, raising concerns that a reversal may be on the horizon. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a striking divergence between retail traders and institutional players. Retailers remain highly bullish on the pair, indicating optimism for continued gains. On the other hand, "smart money," represented by institutional traders, has adopted a more bearish stance, signaling caution. Given the pair’s overbought conditions and the growing divergence in trader sentiment, we have placed a pending order in anticipation of a potential reversal. This setup aligns with the COT data, where institutional positioning suggests that a pullback could be imminent. What to Watch: Fed’s Statement and Market Reaction As the week unfolds, the Federal Reserve's policy decision and statement will play a decisive role in the future trajectory of NZD/USD. A rate cut could further fuel the pair’s appreciation, but the market will closely scrutinize the Fed's tone regarding future rate cuts or tightening measures. Should the Fed take a more dovish stance, the U.S. dollar may weaken further, providing additional support for NZD/USD. Conversely, a more cautious or hawkish outlook could spark a shift in sentiment, favoring the U.S. dollar and triggering the expected reversal. Conclusion: Caution Ahead of Volatility While NZD/USD has benefited from recent risk-on sentiment, caution is warranted as the pair enters overbought territory. The ongoing divergence between retail traders and institutional investors, combined with the upcoming U.S. economic news and Fed decision, creates a complex landscape for traders. The potential for heightened volatility is high, making it essential to monitor these developments closely as the week progresses. For now, our technical indicators and market analysis suggest that a reversal may be imminent, and we are positioned accordingly with a pending order in place. However, as always, the Federal Reserve’s policy outcome will likely be the deciding factor in the pair’s near-term direction. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1120 Ahead of Crucial Fed Rate ...EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1120 Ahead of Crucial Fed Rate Decision As the first London session kicks off this morning, EUR/USD is maintaining its position above the 1.1120 level, with market participants eagerly awaiting today's Federal Funds Rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The decision is set to dominate market sentiment, with investors and traders closely watching for any signs of policy shifts or forward guidance. Current Market Sentiment From a technical standpoint, not much has changed since our previous analysis. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report continues to highlight a significant divergence between retail traders and institutional investors. Retail traders remain overwhelmingly long on the pair, suggesting their optimism for further upside. However, "smart money," often represented by institutional traders, continues to take a bearish stance, positioning themselves for potential downside. This disparity in positioning further adds to the uncertainty surrounding EUR/USD’s near-term trajectory. As the pair trades within a daily supply zone, the potential for a bearish reversal remains on the table. The supply zone, which has acted as a resistance level, continues to cap any significant bullish advances, keeping the risk of a sharp pullback intact. Fed Decision: The Key Catalyst All eyes remain on the Federal Reserve’s policy verdict, which could serve as the key driver for the next move in EUR/USD. The Fed's decision on interest rates, along with its forward guidance, will likely dictate the pair's direction in the coming days. A more hawkish stance from the Fed could fuel U.S. dollar strength, potentially pushing EUR/USD lower. Conversely, any dovish signals might provide the pair with a fresh catalyst for breaking through the current resistance levels. For now, EUR/USD continues to hover above 1.1120, but the looming Fed decision may be the tipping point that decides whether the pair resumes its bullish momentum or succumbs to the bearish sentiment from institutional traders. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
AUD/USD Appreciates Amid US Data, Eyes Key Supply AreaThe AUD/USD pair saw an upward movement as recent US economic data increased expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Despite these gains, the market remains cautious, with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rising above forecasts, largely driven by higher service costs. This inflationary uptick has complicated the outlook, as the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to deliver a 25-basis point interest rate cut at its September meeting. From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD is approaching a critical supply area, which could trigger a potential pullback later today. This level has historically acted as resistance, and with fundamentals remaining largely unchanged ahead of Monday, traders should be wary of a possible reversal to retrace yesterday’s gains. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report provides further insight, showing that retail traders are still heavily long this week, while institutional or "smart money" remains bearish on the pair. This divergence between retail and institutional positioning strengthens the case for a near-term pullback as the pair approaches overbought conditions. While the fundamentals remain steady, with no major developments expected until next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, market participants are closely watching for signs of a reversal at the current technical levels. A pullback to recover the ground covered by yesterday’s candle is a scenario many traders are anticipating. However, with the Fed’s decision looming and mixed signals from the PPI data, volatility could remain high as the market navigates this critical period. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Rallies Amid Weakening Dollar, Approaching Key SupplyOn Thursday, the EUR/USD saw a rally as the US Dollar (Greenback) weakened, providing support to the euro's upward momentum. However, despite this rally, the pair now enters a critical phase of rejection as it approaches a key supply area, which has previously acted as resistance. This supply zone could trigger a potential pullback in the coming sessions, especially as market participants weigh technical factors against broader economic conditions. The release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data failed to significantly impact market movement, offering little fuel for volatility. Despite the softer inflation data, the overall market remains focused on the Federal Reserve's future policy direction. Speculation over potential rate cuts continues to dominate market sentiment, with traders looking for clearer signals as the central bank navigates its next steps in light of ongoing economic conditions. From a technical perspective, nothing has fundamentally shifted in terms of the broader outlook for EUR/USD. The euro continues to benefit from dollar weakness, but key resistance levels—such as the approaching supply area—remain intact. A pullback at this level could signal the market’s hesitation to push higher without more significant changes in either economic data or Fed policy. As the pair nears this important technical zone, traders should remain cautious. The fundamentals underpinning the current market environment haven't changed dramatically, and until there is a clearer shift in the macroeconomic landscape or central bank policy, the euro's recent gains may face hurdles. Nevertheless, with ongoing dollar softness and a Fed-centric market focus, the EUR/USD remains a pair to watch for further developments. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
AUD/USD Struggles Near Weekly Lows as US CPI Data The AUD/USD currency pair exhibited a period of consolidation near the 0.6640 level, marking a weekly low, during the initial half of the trading day. This stability came amid a notable absence of significant economic data, although the US Dollar experienced a slight retreat, influenced by the strengthening of the Japanese Yen. The situation shifted dramatically following the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. Although the overall CPI numbers met market expectations, the annual core CPI unexpectedly rose by 0.3%, exceeding both forecasts and the previous figure of 0.2%. This development tempered hopes for an aggressive 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in their upcoming meeting, leading to a subsequent decline in the AUD/USD pair. From a technical standpoint, the pair has already reached its take-profit target, and the Australian Dollar has shown a reaction to a Demand area with a noticeable spike recorded yesterday. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report paints a contrasting picture: while retail traders are increasing their long positions on the AUD, institutional investors, often referred to as "smart money," are opting for short positions. This divergence between retail sentiment and institutional positioning suggests that while retail traders are optimistic about the AUD, the underlying institutional sentiment remains bearish. Considering these dynamics, there is a significant likelihood that the AUD/USD pair could continue to decline, potentially retesting the lower Demand area in the coming days. Traders are advised to remain vigilant and monitor key technical levels, as the mixed signals from retail and institutional participants may lead to heightened market volatility. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUDUSD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
NZD/USD Gains Amid Risk-On Sentiment But Downside Risks RemainThe NZD/USD pair saw gains this week, driven by a positive shift in market sentiment following the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August on Wednesday. The headline inflation figure dropped to a three-year low, easing concerns about persistently high inflation in the U.S. and increasing the likelihood of a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the near future. This risk-on mood has provided short-term support for the New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi), as investors temporarily shifted their focus away from risk-off assets like the U.S. Dollar. Despite this positive development, the Kiwi's upside potential may be limited. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to implement additional rate cuts by the end of 2024, as the country's economic outlook remains uncertain. A dovish stance by the RBNZ could weigh on the NZD in the long term, especially as market participants adjust their expectations for future monetary policy decisions. From a technical analysis perspective, NZD/USD remains vulnerable to further downside pressure. After reversing from a key supply area (as highlighted in our previous analysis), the pair could be poised for a continued decline. Retail traders remain bullish on the NZD, but data shows that institutional players, often referred to as "smart money," have taken a more cautious approach, with lower positioning in the currency. This divergence in sentiment suggests that the current bullish momentum may be short-lived, and a bearish continuation could be on the horizon. In summary, while the NZD/USD pair has gained ground due to improved risk appetite following the U.S. CPI release, the broader outlook remains bearish. The prospect of further RBNZ rate cuts, combined with the positioning of institutional investors, suggests that the Kiwi may face additional downward pressure in the coming weeks. Traders should watch for key technical levels and remain alert to shifts in market sentiment. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
AUD/USD Weakens Toward 0.6745 and Rising USDThe AUD/USD pair is losing further ground, trading around 0.6745 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar is under pressure due to a widening Current Account deficit in the second quarter, which has dampened sentiment. This economic backdrop, coupled with a modest uptick in the US Dollar and a broader decline in risk appetite, is weighing on the pair. Market Focus Shifts to US Economic Data As the market shifts its focus to upcoming top-tier US economic data, the AUD/USD pair is likely to remain volatile. Investors are closely watching these releases for further clues on the direction of the US Dollar, which has been showing signs of strength. Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Align From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair has recently rebounded from a key Supply area, suggesting that the upward momentum may be stalling. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report adds another layer to the bearish outlook, showing that retail traders are predominantly bullish on the AUD, a contrarian signal that often suggests potential downside. Additionally, the presence of divergence and a seasonal bearish pattern further supports the case for continued weakness in the AUD/USD pair. These factors combined indicate that the pair may continue to struggle in the near term. Trading Strategy: Scalping with a 1:1 Risk-Reward Ratio Given the current market conditions and the technical setup, a scalp entry with a 1:1 risk-reward ratio could be a prudent approach. While the ideal entry point higher up may have been missed, the ongoing bearish signals provide an opportunity for a short-term trade. Traders looking to capitalize on the continued weakness of the AUD/USD pair might consider this strategy, especially as the pair hovers near key support levels. Conclusion: Bearish Outlook Amid Economic and Technical Headwinds The AUD/USD pair faces several headwinds, including a widening Australian Current Account deficit, a stronger US Dollar, and unfavorable technical signals. As the pair continues to lose ground, traders should remain cautious and look for opportunities to capitalize on the bearish trend, particularly in light of upcoming US economic data that could further influence the pair’s direction. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
USD/ZAR Reaches Key Demand Zone: Are We Set for a Reversal?The USD/ZAR currency pair has reached a significant demand area around the 17.72800 level, presenting a potential opportunity for a long position. This critical zone has caught the attention of traders and market analysts alike, especially those looking for a reversal setup based on market positioning data and technical indicators. COT Report Insights: A Contrarian Indicator A deeper dive into the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals intriguing insights into market sentiment for the USD/ZAR pair. The data shows a notable divergence between retail traders and commercials. Currently, retail traders are predominantly short on the USD/ZAR, betting on further declines in the pair. On the other hand, commercials—who often represent larger, more informed institutional players—are also short on the Rand in the Weekly Futures market. This contrarian stance by retail traders and commercials indicates that a significant market move may be on the horizon. Market Positioning and the Case for a Reversal The current market positioning suggests a classic oversold condition for the USD/ZAR pair. An oversold market is typically characterized by excessive selling pressure that has pushed prices lower than what underlying fundamentals might justify. This often leads to a potential reversal as market forces balance out and traders begin to cover their short positions. The convergence of these factors—an oversold technical condition, retail traders being heavily short, and commercials positioning themselves short on the Rand—sets the stage for a possible bullish reversal. Such a scenario could see the USD/ZAR pair rebound from the current demand area and make a move higher, as buying interest emerges to drive the pair up from its current levels. Technical Analysis Supports Bullish Outlook From a technical perspective, the 17.72800 demand zone has historically served as a strong support level, where buying pressure has previously emerged. This zone has acted as a magnet for price action, attracting significant buying interest whenever the pair has approached it. The current price action shows signs of stabilization around this key area, further bolstering the case for a bullish reversal. Additionally, the presence of bullish reversal patterns or signals, such as candlestick formations or momentum indicators turning upward from oversold levels, would add further confirmation to the potential for an upward move. Traders and analysts are closely monitoring the price action for these confirming signals to enter long positions with more confidence. Conclusion: Preparing for a Bullish Reversal Given the convergence of factors—COT report insights, oversold conditions, and technical support at the demand zone—the USD/ZAR pair appears primed for a potential bullish reversal. Traders should keep a close watch on upcoming price action and market data for further clues on the timing and strength of this anticipated move. As always, it's essential to manage risk carefully and consider both fundamental and technical aspects when planning trades. With the USD/ZAR trading near critical levels, a well-timed entry could offer a favorable risk-reward setup for those anticipating a reversal and subsequent upward movement in the pair. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/ZAR in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CAD Rebounds from Key Demand Zone as Retail Traders BearishAs predicted last week, the USD/CAD pair has rebounded from a key demand area, in line with expectations. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report continues to highlight a bearish stance from retail traders, who are positioned at their most bearish levels since 2009. This sentiment contrasts with the recent price action, which suggests a potential recovery for the USD. Today’s release of critical economic indicators, including the USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, could provide further momentum to the USD. If these reports come in positive, they may serve as a catalyst for the USD to regain even more value against the CAD. From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair is positioned in a strong demand zone, which has already facilitated a rebound. With retail traders remaining firmly bearish, the potential for a bullish move increases, especially if the upcoming data aligns favorably for the USD. While the market waits for these key economic releases, traders are likely to keep a close eye on the indicators to assess the USD’s next move. A positive outcome could signal a further rally, reinforcing the recovery already underway. However, it's essential to stay patient and see how the data unfolds. The market reaction to today’s news will provide clearer direction for USD/CAD’s future trajectory. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/CAD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USD Recovery Gains Momentum Ahead of Core PPI and Unemployment..As the market gears up for the release of key economic indicators such as the USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, the USD has shown signs of recovery. This rebound began yesterday and has continued into today’s London session, where the USD/JPY pair is trading around 143.50 as I write this article. The pair’s recent movement follows a strong carry trade impact on the JPY, which caused the price to drop significantly from the 162 level to where we find it today. However, the USD/JPY has encountered a demand zone, showing signs of potential stabilization. Supporting this outlook is the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates that retail traders are still predominantly short on the pair, while fund managers have begun adding to their long positions, signaling a possible shift in sentiment. From a technical standpoint, this setup presents a favorable opportunity for a long position, aligning with forecasts we've been tracking over the last two weeks. The pair's current price action and its position near the demand zone suggest the potential for a reversal. Today’s economic releases will be crucial in determining the next move for the USD/JPY. The data could provide further clarity on the USD’s recovery path and offer a better understanding of the broader market environment. For now, traders eyeing long positions will be watching the news closely, awaiting confirmation of the technical and fundamental cues aligning for the pair. JPY Futures - Weekly Chart. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
3