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EUR/USD Reverses at Supply Level Amid German PMI WeaknessGermany’s Manufacturing PMI continued its decline, dropping to 40.3 in September, falling short of the forecast of 42.4. This latest figure signals ongoing weakness in Europe’s largest economy, as the manufacturing sector struggles with reduced demand and broader economic challenges. The PMI contraction adds further pressure to the already fragile outlook for the Eurozone, and it has contributed to the recent bearish moves in the EUR/USD pair. As anticipated in our recent analysis, the EUR/USD reacted sharply to the supply level around 1.11500, starting a reversal following the weak data. The currency pair’s behavior confirms the importance of this key resistance area, which has once again acted as a barrier to further gains. The reversal gained momentum as the Services PMI for the German economy also disappointed, falling to 50.6 in September, below the expected 51.0. The combined weakness in both manufacturing and services sectors signals a broader slowdown in the German economy, weighing on the Euro. Adding to the bearish outlook for the EUR/USD, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows a clear divergence in sentiment between retail traders and institutional investors. Retail traders remain largely long on the EUR/USD, reflecting optimism that the Euro will recover. However, "Smart Money" — large institutional traders — continue to hold a bearish position, suggesting that they expect further downside for the pair. This contrast in positioning underscores the potential for more weakness in the Euro, particularly if the economic data from Germany and the Eurozone continues to disappoint. As smart money maintains a bearish stance and the EUR/USD begins its reversal, traders should remain cautious of potential short-term rallies and focus on the broader downtrend that seems to be forming. Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on future economic data releases and central bank decisions, as these will likely shape the next leg of the EUR/USD’s movement. For now, the pair appears set to continue its downward trend, with the 1.11500 supply level serving as a strong point of resistance. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD Breaks Records,Overbought Signals Hint at Scalping ReversalGold surged to a new all-time high near $2,610 on Friday as expectations grew that global central banks will join the Federal Reserve (Fed) in easing monetary policy and cutting interest rates. Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by the prospect of lower interest rates, which diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-paying assets like gold. This surge in gold’s value is largely attributed to the growing consensus that central banks worldwide will follow the Fed's lead in slashing rates to stimulate economic growth. Lower interest rates typically favor gold, as they make alternative interest-bearing investments less attractive. With fewer benefits from higher-yielding assets, gold becomes a more appealing choice for investors looking to protect their wealth in an environment of falling rates. However, as gold reaches new highs, there’s a caveat: when access to gold becomes easier, it reduces the perceived value of holding it, as the scarcity that once made the asset so desirable begins to wane. Amid this record-breaking rally, we’ve noticed overbought conditions in the gold market, signaling a potential opportunity for scalpers. A short-term bearish setup is forming as gold nears a technical exhaustion point. The sharp rise in price has pushed gold into overbought territory, which often precedes a pullback or reversal. This presents a lucrative opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on a quick price correction. From a technical standpoint, gold is showing signs of a potential reversal, as momentum indicators flash warning signals of an impending price downturn. Scalpers and short-term traders may find an attractive entry point for a bearish trade, particularly if gold fails to maintain its new record high and starts retreating toward key support levels. While the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to global monetary easing, in the short term, market conditions may favor a pullback. Traders looking for a short-term bearish setup should monitor key resistance levels and momentum indicators for confirmation of a reversal. With gold hovering near its peak, the potential for a temporary correction is becoming increasingly likely, making it a prime target for short-term profit opportunities. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
2
NZD/USD Rises Ahead of Fed Decision, Reversal Risk LoomsNZD/USD has appreciated in recent trading sessions, supported by improved global risk sentiment as markets anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday. However, while the New Zealand dollar has gained momentum, the outlook for the pair remains uncertain, with critical U.S. economic data expected today that could significantly impact all currency pairs trading against the U.S. dollar. Key Market Drivers: Fed and U.S. Economic News The Federal Funds Rate decision and the accompanying FOMC statement later this week are at the center of market attention. The potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve has already fueled a wave of optimism, boosting the New Zealand dollar. However, traders remain cautious as today’s U.S. economic news, including inflation and employment data, may provide critical insights into the strength of the U.S. economy ahead of the rate decision. Any significant surprises in today's economic reports could shift sentiment across all USD pairs, including NZD/USD, potentially creating increased volatility leading up to Wednesday's announcement. Technical Outlook: Overbought Conditions Raise Reversal Risk From a technical perspective, NZD/USD is currently in overbought territory, raising concerns that a reversal may be on the horizon. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a striking divergence between retail traders and institutional players. Retailers remain highly bullish on the pair, indicating optimism for continued gains. On the other hand, "smart money," represented by institutional traders, has adopted a more bearish stance, signaling caution. Given the pair’s overbought conditions and the growing divergence in trader sentiment, we have placed a pending order in anticipation of a potential reversal. This setup aligns with the COT data, where institutional positioning suggests that a pullback could be imminent. What to Watch: Fed’s Statement and Market Reaction As the week unfolds, the Federal Reserve's policy decision and statement will play a decisive role in the future trajectory of NZD/USD. A rate cut could further fuel the pair’s appreciation, but the market will closely scrutinize the Fed's tone regarding future rate cuts or tightening measures. Should the Fed take a more dovish stance, the U.S. dollar may weaken further, providing additional support for NZD/USD. Conversely, a more cautious or hawkish outlook could spark a shift in sentiment, favoring the U.S. dollar and triggering the expected reversal. Conclusion: Caution Ahead of Volatility While NZD/USD has benefited from recent risk-on sentiment, caution is warranted as the pair enters overbought territory. The ongoing divergence between retail traders and institutional investors, combined with the upcoming U.S. economic news and Fed decision, creates a complex landscape for traders. The potential for heightened volatility is high, making it essential to monitor these developments closely as the week progresses. For now, our technical indicators and market analysis suggest that a reversal may be imminent, and we are positioned accordingly with a pending order in place. However, as always, the Federal Reserve’s policy outcome will likely be the deciding factor in the pair’s near-term direction. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1120 Ahead of Crucial Fed Rate ...EUR/USD Holds Steady Above 1.1120 Ahead of Crucial Fed Rate Decision As the first London session kicks off this morning, EUR/USD is maintaining its position above the 1.1120 level, with market participants eagerly awaiting today's Federal Funds Rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The decision is set to dominate market sentiment, with investors and traders closely watching for any signs of policy shifts or forward guidance. Current Market Sentiment From a technical standpoint, not much has changed since our previous analysis. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report continues to highlight a significant divergence between retail traders and institutional investors. Retail traders remain overwhelmingly long on the pair, suggesting their optimism for further upside. However, "smart money," often represented by institutional traders, continues to take a bearish stance, positioning themselves for potential downside. This disparity in positioning further adds to the uncertainty surrounding EUR/USD’s near-term trajectory. As the pair trades within a daily supply zone, the potential for a bearish reversal remains on the table. The supply zone, which has acted as a resistance level, continues to cap any significant bullish advances, keeping the risk of a sharp pullback intact. Fed Decision: The Key Catalyst All eyes remain on the Federal Reserve’s policy verdict, which could serve as the key driver for the next move in EUR/USD. The Fed's decision on interest rates, along with its forward guidance, will likely dictate the pair's direction in the coming days. A more hawkish stance from the Fed could fuel U.S. dollar strength, potentially pushing EUR/USD lower. Conversely, any dovish signals might provide the pair with a fresh catalyst for breaking through the current resistance levels. For now, EUR/USD continues to hover above 1.1120, but the looming Fed decision may be the tipping point that decides whether the pair resumes its bullish momentum or succumbs to the bearish sentiment from institutional traders. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
AUD/USD Appreciates Amid US Data, Eyes Key Supply AreaThe AUD/USD pair saw an upward movement as recent US economic data increased expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Despite these gains, the market remains cautious, with the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rising above forecasts, largely driven by higher service costs. This inflationary uptick has complicated the outlook, as the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to deliver a 25-basis point interest rate cut at its September meeting. From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD is approaching a critical supply area, which could trigger a potential pullback later today. This level has historically acted as resistance, and with fundamentals remaining largely unchanged ahead of Monday, traders should be wary of a possible reversal to retrace yesterday’s gains. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report provides further insight, showing that retail traders are still heavily long this week, while institutional or "smart money" remains bearish on the pair. This divergence between retail and institutional positioning strengthens the case for a near-term pullback as the pair approaches overbought conditions. While the fundamentals remain steady, with no major developments expected until next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, market participants are closely watching for signs of a reversal at the current technical levels. A pullback to recover the ground covered by yesterday’s candle is a scenario many traders are anticipating. However, with the Fed’s decision looming and mixed signals from the PPI data, volatility could remain high as the market navigates this critical period. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Rallies Amid Weakening Dollar, Approaching Key SupplyOn Thursday, the EUR/USD saw a rally as the US Dollar (Greenback) weakened, providing support to the euro's upward momentum. However, despite this rally, the pair now enters a critical phase of rejection as it approaches a key supply area, which has previously acted as resistance. This supply zone could trigger a potential pullback in the coming sessions, especially as market participants weigh technical factors against broader economic conditions. The release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data failed to significantly impact market movement, offering little fuel for volatility. Despite the softer inflation data, the overall market remains focused on the Federal Reserve's future policy direction. Speculation over potential rate cuts continues to dominate market sentiment, with traders looking for clearer signals as the central bank navigates its next steps in light of ongoing economic conditions. From a technical perspective, nothing has fundamentally shifted in terms of the broader outlook for EUR/USD. The euro continues to benefit from dollar weakness, but key resistance levels—such as the approaching supply area—remain intact. A pullback at this level could signal the market’s hesitation to push higher without more significant changes in either economic data or Fed policy. As the pair nears this important technical zone, traders should remain cautious. The fundamentals underpinning the current market environment haven't changed dramatically, and until there is a clearer shift in the macroeconomic landscape or central bank policy, the euro's recent gains may face hurdles. Nevertheless, with ongoing dollar softness and a Fed-centric market focus, the EUR/USD remains a pair to watch for further developments. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
AUD/USD Struggles Near Weekly Lows as US CPI Data The AUD/USD currency pair exhibited a period of consolidation near the 0.6640 level, marking a weekly low, during the initial half of the trading day. This stability came amid a notable absence of significant economic data, although the US Dollar experienced a slight retreat, influenced by the strengthening of the Japanese Yen. The situation shifted dramatically following the release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures. Although the overall CPI numbers met market expectations, the annual core CPI unexpectedly rose by 0.3%, exceeding both forecasts and the previous figure of 0.2%. This development tempered hopes for an aggressive 50-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in their upcoming meeting, leading to a subsequent decline in the AUD/USD pair. From a technical standpoint, the pair has already reached its take-profit target, and the Australian Dollar has shown a reaction to a Demand area with a noticeable spike recorded yesterday. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report paints a contrasting picture: while retail traders are increasing their long positions on the AUD, institutional investors, often referred to as "smart money," are opting for short positions. This divergence between retail sentiment and institutional positioning suggests that while retail traders are optimistic about the AUD, the underlying institutional sentiment remains bearish. Considering these dynamics, there is a significant likelihood that the AUD/USD pair could continue to decline, potentially retesting the lower Demand area in the coming days. Traders are advised to remain vigilant and monitor key technical levels, as the mixed signals from retail and institutional participants may lead to heightened market volatility. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUDUSD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
NZD/USD Gains Amid Risk-On Sentiment But Downside Risks RemainThe NZD/USD pair saw gains this week, driven by a positive shift in market sentiment following the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August on Wednesday. The headline inflation figure dropped to a three-year low, easing concerns about persistently high inflation in the U.S. and increasing the likelihood of a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the near future. This risk-on mood has provided short-term support for the New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi), as investors temporarily shifted their focus away from risk-off assets like the U.S. Dollar. Despite this positive development, the Kiwi's upside potential may be limited. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to implement additional rate cuts by the end of 2024, as the country's economic outlook remains uncertain. A dovish stance by the RBNZ could weigh on the NZD in the long term, especially as market participants adjust their expectations for future monetary policy decisions. From a technical analysis perspective, NZD/USD remains vulnerable to further downside pressure. After reversing from a key supply area (as highlighted in our previous analysis), the pair could be poised for a continued decline. Retail traders remain bullish on the NZD, but data shows that institutional players, often referred to as "smart money," have taken a more cautious approach, with lower positioning in the currency. This divergence in sentiment suggests that the current bullish momentum may be short-lived, and a bearish continuation could be on the horizon. In summary, while the NZD/USD pair has gained ground due to improved risk appetite following the U.S. CPI release, the broader outlook remains bearish. The prospect of further RBNZ rate cuts, combined with the positioning of institutional investors, suggests that the Kiwi may face additional downward pressure in the coming weeks. Traders should watch for key technical levels and remain alert to shifts in market sentiment. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
AUD/USD Weakens Toward 0.6745 and Rising USDThe AUD/USD pair is losing further ground, trading around 0.6745 during the early European session on Tuesday. The Australian Dollar is under pressure due to a widening Current Account deficit in the second quarter, which has dampened sentiment. This economic backdrop, coupled with a modest uptick in the US Dollar and a broader decline in risk appetite, is weighing on the pair. Market Focus Shifts to US Economic Data As the market shifts its focus to upcoming top-tier US economic data, the AUD/USD pair is likely to remain volatile. Investors are closely watching these releases for further clues on the direction of the US Dollar, which has been showing signs of strength. Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Align From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair has recently rebounded from a key Supply area, suggesting that the upward momentum may be stalling. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report adds another layer to the bearish outlook, showing that retail traders are predominantly bullish on the AUD, a contrarian signal that often suggests potential downside. Additionally, the presence of divergence and a seasonal bearish pattern further supports the case for continued weakness in the AUD/USD pair. These factors combined indicate that the pair may continue to struggle in the near term. Trading Strategy: Scalping with a 1:1 Risk-Reward Ratio Given the current market conditions and the technical setup, a scalp entry with a 1:1 risk-reward ratio could be a prudent approach. While the ideal entry point higher up may have been missed, the ongoing bearish signals provide an opportunity for a short-term trade. Traders looking to capitalize on the continued weakness of the AUD/USD pair might consider this strategy, especially as the pair hovers near key support levels. Conclusion: Bearish Outlook Amid Economic and Technical Headwinds The AUD/USD pair faces several headwinds, including a widening Australian Current Account deficit, a stronger US Dollar, and unfavorable technical signals. As the pair continues to lose ground, traders should remain cautious and look for opportunities to capitalize on the bearish trend, particularly in light of upcoming US economic data that could further influence the pair’s direction. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
USD/ZAR Reaches Key Demand Zone: Are We Set for a Reversal?The USD/ZAR currency pair has reached a significant demand area around the 17.72800 level, presenting a potential opportunity for a long position. This critical zone has caught the attention of traders and market analysts alike, especially those looking for a reversal setup based on market positioning data and technical indicators. COT Report Insights: A Contrarian Indicator A deeper dive into the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals intriguing insights into market sentiment for the USD/ZAR pair. The data shows a notable divergence between retail traders and commercials. Currently, retail traders are predominantly short on the USD/ZAR, betting on further declines in the pair. On the other hand, commercials—who often represent larger, more informed institutional players—are also short on the Rand in the Weekly Futures market. This contrarian stance by retail traders and commercials indicates that a significant market move may be on the horizon. Market Positioning and the Case for a Reversal The current market positioning suggests a classic oversold condition for the USD/ZAR pair. An oversold market is typically characterized by excessive selling pressure that has pushed prices lower than what underlying fundamentals might justify. This often leads to a potential reversal as market forces balance out and traders begin to cover their short positions. The convergence of these factors—an oversold technical condition, retail traders being heavily short, and commercials positioning themselves short on the Rand—sets the stage for a possible bullish reversal. Such a scenario could see the USD/ZAR pair rebound from the current demand area and make a move higher, as buying interest emerges to drive the pair up from its current levels. Technical Analysis Supports Bullish Outlook From a technical perspective, the 17.72800 demand zone has historically served as a strong support level, where buying pressure has previously emerged. This zone has acted as a magnet for price action, attracting significant buying interest whenever the pair has approached it. The current price action shows signs of stabilization around this key area, further bolstering the case for a bullish reversal. Additionally, the presence of bullish reversal patterns or signals, such as candlestick formations or momentum indicators turning upward from oversold levels, would add further confirmation to the potential for an upward move. Traders and analysts are closely monitoring the price action for these confirming signals to enter long positions with more confidence. Conclusion: Preparing for a Bullish Reversal Given the convergence of factors—COT report insights, oversold conditions, and technical support at the demand zone—the USD/ZAR pair appears primed for a potential bullish reversal. Traders should keep a close watch on upcoming price action and market data for further clues on the timing and strength of this anticipated move. As always, it's essential to manage risk carefully and consider both fundamental and technical aspects when planning trades. With the USD/ZAR trading near critical levels, a well-timed entry could offer a favorable risk-reward setup for those anticipating a reversal and subsequent upward movement in the pair. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/ZAR in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CAD Rebounds from Key Demand Zone as Retail Traders BearishAs predicted last week, the USD/CAD pair has rebounded from a key demand area, in line with expectations. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report continues to highlight a bearish stance from retail traders, who are positioned at their most bearish levels since 2009. This sentiment contrasts with the recent price action, which suggests a potential recovery for the USD. Today’s release of critical economic indicators, including the USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, could provide further momentum to the USD. If these reports come in positive, they may serve as a catalyst for the USD to regain even more value against the CAD. From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair is positioned in a strong demand zone, which has already facilitated a rebound. With retail traders remaining firmly bearish, the potential for a bullish move increases, especially if the upcoming data aligns favorably for the USD. While the market waits for these key economic releases, traders are likely to keep a close eye on the indicators to assess the USD’s next move. A positive outcome could signal a further rally, reinforcing the recovery already underway. However, it's essential to stay patient and see how the data unfolds. The market reaction to today’s news will provide clearer direction for USD/CAD’s future trajectory. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/CAD in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USD Recovery Gains Momentum Ahead of Core PPI and Unemployment..As the market gears up for the release of key economic indicators such as the USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, the USD has shown signs of recovery. This rebound began yesterday and has continued into today’s London session, where the USD/JPY pair is trading around 143.50 as I write this article. The pair’s recent movement follows a strong carry trade impact on the JPY, which caused the price to drop significantly from the 162 level to where we find it today. However, the USD/JPY has encountered a demand zone, showing signs of potential stabilization. Supporting this outlook is the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates that retail traders are still predominantly short on the pair, while fund managers have begun adding to their long positions, signaling a possible shift in sentiment. From a technical standpoint, this setup presents a favorable opportunity for a long position, aligning with forecasts we've been tracking over the last two weeks. The pair's current price action and its position near the demand zone suggest the potential for a reversal. Today’s economic releases will be crucial in determining the next move for the USD/JPY. The data could provide further clarity on the USD’s recovery path and offer a better understanding of the broader market environment. For now, traders eyeing long positions will be watching the news closely, awaiting confirmation of the technical and fundamental cues aligning for the pair. JPY Futures - Weekly Chart. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and 👍 HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/USD Struggles as Dollar Strengthens Following Economic DataThe Pound Sterling has continued to underperform against the US Dollar, following a series of key economic events. Initially, on Friday, the USD experienced a brief weakening after the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims, which pointed to weaker-than-expected economic signals. U.S. employment growth for August came in below forecasts, casting doubt on the overall health of the labor market. However, the dollar quickly regained its strength, in line with last week’s price action, after market participants absorbed these figures and focused on other economic data points. Our previous forecast for GBP/USD, as outlined last week, highlighted a key supply area that would likely serve as a turning point for the pair, and indeed this has played out. The price action during the London session shows continued weakness in the British pound, confirming a bearish continuation as the USD maintains its momentum. The GBP remains under pressure as the pair seems unable to sustain any recovery attempts, particularly as the USD continues to recover its losses from earlier in the month. Previous Analysis: Looking ahead, tomorrow’s U.S. economic releases, including Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, will be crucial in determining whether the dollar can extend its bullish momentum. Additionally, the upcoming U.S. pre-election debate could add further volatility to the market, making this a key event for traders to watch. In conclusion, GBP/USD remains on a bearish trajectory, and further downside pressure could emerge if the upcoming U.S. data continues to support the case for dollar strength. Traders should stay alert to these key data points as they will likely set the tone for the pair’s movement in the coming days.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Eyes Key Demand Zone: Potential for Retracement AheadThe GBP/USD currency pair has approached a notable demand zone, which appears particularly intriguing on the future 6B1 chart. This area could present significant opportunities that may become even more evident in subsequent trading sessions. Currently, the price of the GBP/USD pair is exhibiting signs of being overbought. This condition is largely influenced by retail traders who are driving the price upward aggressively. Such market dynamics often precede a potential pullback as the buying momentum may not be sustainable over the long term. Given these conditions, we are anticipating a retracement of the British Pound in the near future. This expected downward movement would align with the typical market behavior following an overbought state, where prices correct themselves after a significant upward surge. Traders should monitor this development closely, as it could offer valuable entry points for those looking to capitalize on the impending adjustments in price. GBP Futures ( Weekly Chart ) ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
NZD/USD: Bearish Continuation Confirmed After Key USD DataIn line with our previous analysis, NZD/USD triggered our sell limit order last Friday, signaling a potential bearish move after the release of key U.S. economic data. Initially, the U.S. dollar weakened following the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims reports, which delivered softer-than-expected results, raising concerns about the strength of the U.S. labor market. However, the dollar quickly regained its footing due to positive outcomes from the Final Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, and Crude Oil Inventories, all of which reinforced confidence in the U.S. economy. As a result, the New Zealand dollar, like other major currencies, began a reversal, continuing its bearish trend against the strengthening USD. The recovery in the U.S. dollar has put downward pressure on NZD, confirming our expectations of a bearish continuation for the pair. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report remains consistent with our earlier forecasts. Institutional players are still favoring a bearish outlook on the NZD, while retail traders are likely still holding onto bullish positions, creating a divergence that suggests more downside potential for NZD/USD. With these factors in mind, we are confident in our bearish stance and expect the pair to reach our take profit target in the coming days. Technically, the price action supports our forecast, with the NZD/USD pair failing to break key resistance levels and continuing to trade within a bearish channel. The reversal we anticipated has materialized, and the pair appears poised to continue its downward movement as the U.S. dollar remains strong in the wake of positive economic data. In conclusion, our analysis points to further downside for NZD/USD this week, and we remain focused on reaching our take profit target. With both fundamental and technical factors aligned, the outlook for the pair remains bearish, and traders should be prepared for continued weakness in the New Zealand dollar as the U.S. dollar continues to recover. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD: Bearish Bias Amid Dollar Strength and ECB Rate Cut Ex..EUR/USD: Bearish Bias Amid Dollar Strength and ECB Rate Cut Expectations Last Friday, the EUR/USD pair attempted to recover some of its losses from the previous week, following an initial decline in the US Dollar. The greenback weakened after the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims, which delivered less-than-encouraging economic signals. However, the dollar quickly regained ground thanks to positive results from the Final Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, and Crude Oil Inventories, all of which helped to boost investor confidence in the US economy. Despite this brief rebound in EUR/USD, the pair's upside potential seems limited. Recent inflation data from the eurozone has heightened market expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will implement a rate cut at its upcoming policy meeting on Thursday. This looming policy shift has created a bearish outlook for the euro, as lower interest rates typically reduce the attractiveness of a currency in global markets. From a technical perspective, our bearish stance on EUR/USD remains unchanged. Over the past two weeks, the pair has struggled to maintain its rally after hitting a major supply area, which has now turned into a formidable resistance zone. Adding further to this bearish sentiment is the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which reveals that retail traders are predominantly bullish on the euro, while institutional players, often referred to as "smart money," maintain a bearish position. This divergence suggests that the euro's recent attempts to rally may lack the institutional support needed for sustained upward momentum. Seasonality also favors a bearish trend for the euro at this time of the year. Historical data shows that the EUR/USD pair tends to weaken during this period, aligning with our current forecast. The combination of technical resistance, COT positioning, and seasonal trends points to further downside risks for the euro. On the chart, I have highlighted a key demand area where the price could potentially drop. This zone may act as a magnet, pulling the pair lower before triggering a possible retracement. If the price reaches this level, we may see a short-term bounce, but the overall bias remains bearish unless there is a significant shift in fundamentals or technical indicators. In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair faces several headwinds, including dollar strength, expectations of an ECB rate cut, and bearish technical and seasonal factors. Traders should remain cautious as the pair approaches key demand levels, and any short-term rallies may be limited by broader market forces. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CHF: Navigating Demand Zones and Market SentimentLast Friday, USD/CHF dropped to a daily low of 0.8375 before rebounding in Monday’s European session, with the current price around 0.84585 as I write this article. The initial decline in the US Dollar came after the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims, which provided less-than-positive signals. However, the dollar regained strength following encouraging results from the Final Services PMI, ISM Services PMI, and Crude Oil Inventories, all of which had a positive impact. From a technical perspective, the analysis remains consistent with last week’s outlook, where we see a potential USD rebound against CHF, as the pair continues to trade within a strong demand zone, with retail traders heavily shorting. Looking at seasonality over the past 10 years, there is a historical tendency for an increase in value for this pair around this time. However, given the pre-election period in the US and shifting economic factors, extra caution is advised during this phase. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/CAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
6
EUR/USD Reversal After Strong US Data: Bearish Momentum Ahead?After yesterday's pullback, the EUR/USD pair has formed a rejection candle on the daily chart after touching the 1.1112 mark. The pair's gains against the USD were quickly reversed, as surprisingly strong US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for August offered significant support to the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, has recovered most of its intraday losses after finding buying interest near the day's low around the 101.00 level. From a technical perspective, we have already closed 50% of our position after the price bounced back from a key supply area. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows a high level of retail traders accumulating long positions in EUR/USD, marking the highest accumulation since the last significant price peak in December. This accumulation hints at potential exhaustion of the bullish sentiment among retail traders, which may lead to further bearish pressure. The ISM Services PMI report revealed that activity in the US services sector expanded slightly more than anticipated, with a reading of 51.5, compared to July's 51.4. Economists had projected a modest slowdown to 51.1, but the unexpected uptick in service activity adds another layer of support for the USD. This strong economic performance suggests that the US economy remains resilient, increasing the chances of sustained strength in the USD. Given this scenario, we anticipate a continuation of bearish pressure on the EUR/USD and other currency pairs against the USD. With retail traders heavily positioned long and the fundamentals favoring the USD, the market may continue to see the US Dollar strengthen in the coming days, offering potential opportunities for those seeking to short the EUR/USD or other USD pairs. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
NZD/USD: Traders Eye Short Setup After Key ReboundThe NZD/USD pair saw a strong recovery from its intraday low of 0.6170 during Wednesday’s New York session. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) regained some ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggled to maintain its upward momentum, having recently corrected from a fresh two-week high. Investors are now eagerly awaiting the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the highlight of a data-heavy week for the US economy. From a technical standpoint, the price had already rebounded from a key Supply area, and after today's short recovery, traders may find an opportunity for a potential short setup. This pullback could be seen as a chance to enter the market by setting a Sell Limit order or entering directly to take advantage of the correction. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders are increasingly aggressive on the long side, while Smart Money appears to be reducing its positions, signaling a possible bearish trend. Additionally, seasonality data further hints at the potential for a bearish move in the near future. With several factors aligning, traders may be preparing for a potential downside in the NZD/USD pair, making this pullback an attractive opportunity for short positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Is the EUR/USD Recovery a Pullback Before a Bearish Move?The EUR/USD pair rebounded following the release of the weaker-than-expected US JOLTS Job Openings data, prompting questions about whether this is a potential opportunity to enter short positions. After an initial rebound from the Supply area, the EUR/USD pair recovered some ground on Wednesday, likely driven by the US labor data. However, this recovery could present a pullback, offering investors a chance to add to their positions in anticipation of a possible bearish scenario. Investors are now eagerly awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, scheduled for release on Friday. This official labor market data will be critical in shaping the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path for interest rate cuts in September. While many investors believe that the Fed will begin reducing its key borrowing rates this month, there is still uncertainty regarding the size of the potential rate cut. From a Commitment of Traders (COT) perspective, we can observe that retail traders are heavily positioned on the long side of the EUR/USD, which often serves as a contrarian indicator. Additionally, seasonality data points to a likely drop in the EUR in the near term. Given this COT scenario and the broader market sentiment, we are maintaining our bearish outlook on the EUR/USD and see this pullback as an opportunity to consider short positions. With key data releases on the horizon, such as the NFP, traders should remain cautious but be prepared for further downside in the EUR/USD pair as market conditions evolve. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
USD/CHF Dips Amid Caution, but Bullish Long-Term Outlook RemainsThe USD/CHF pair has lost some ground as traders proceed with caution following the release of key economic data from the United States, particularly the JOLTS Job Openings report. After initially reacting to a well-established Demand Area over the past few days, the USD/CHF price began to recover slightly, reflecting market uncertainty and a lack of momentum. However, despite the short-term pullback, our long-term outlook for the pair remains unchanged. From a fundamental perspective, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals an interesting divergence: retail traders are heavily short in this demand zone, while large speculators continue to maintain long positions. This contrast suggests that the smart money sees value in the current price level, supporting the potential for an upward move. Additionally, seasonality patterns point to the start of a potential bullish trend for the USD/CHF pair. Historically, this time of year has seen upward pressure on the US Dollar, which could further support a continuation of the recovery. In conclusion, while short-term fluctuations may cause some hesitation, the broader market signals—retailers positioned short, large speculators holding long positions, and favorable seasonality—suggest that the USD/CHF pair may be gearing up for a bullish move in the coming weeks. Traders should remain vigilant and watch for opportunities to enter long positions as the market stabilizes. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/CHF in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
DXY - US Dollar Strengthens Above 101.70 Market AnalysisThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing renewed strength, climbing above the 101.70 mark after a relatively flat Monday. This move extends the momentum from last week, where the DXY gained over 1%. As the market braces for key labor data later this week, all eyes are on the August jobs report, set to be released on Friday. This report is expected to reveal a solid increase in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which could provide further support to the US Dollar. Technical Analysis: Reversal from Key Demand Area From a technical standpoint, the DXY has already exhibited a significant reversal from a key Demand area around 100.535. As forecasted, the price rebounded from the 100.515 level, confirming the strength of this support zone. This reversal was anticipated based on previous analysis, and it has played out as expected, setting the stage for the current bullish momentum. Sentiment and Seasonal Trends Support a Bullish Outlook The Commitments of Traders (COT) report adds an interesting layer to the analysis, showing that retail traders are aggressively short on the US Dollar. This aggressive short positioning often acts as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that there might be further upside potential for the DXY. Additionally, seasonal trends are aligning with a possible bullish rally in the US Dollar. Historically, this period has seen increased demand for the USD, and the current setup appears to be following that pattern. When combining the COT data with the technical bounce from the Demand area, the outlook for the US Dollar remains positive. Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors Supporting USD Strength The DXY's move above 101.70 is supported by a confluence of technical and sentiment factors. The reversal from the Demand area, coupled with the contrarian signal from the COT report and favorable seasonality, all point towards a continued increase in the value of the US Dollar. As the market awaits the crucial NFP report on Friday, the stage is set for potential further gains in the DXY, reinforcing our bullish outlook for the US Dollar. Previous Forecast ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
TVC:DXYLong
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CHF Recovery Gains Momentum on Robust US Growth DataThe USD/CHF pair continued its recovery on Monday, trading around the 0.8517 level. This uptick in the pair is largely driven by a stronger US Dollar (USD), which gained momentum following stronger-than-expected US economic growth data. The recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report revealed that the US economy expanded more rapidly than anticipated in the second quarter, reducing market expectations for a larger 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. According to the second estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) last Thursday, the US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q2, up from the initial estimate of 2.8%. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 231,000 for the week ending August 24, slightly below the projected 232,000, further supporting the Greenback. From a technical perspective, the USD saw a significant rebound after touching our identified Demand area, where the price swiftly reversed direction. This area has proven to be a strong support level, reinforcing the bullish momentum. Moreover, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report highlights a marked bearish sentiment among retail traders, which, when combined with the Demand area, signals a potential continuation of the long setup. In summary, the combination of robust US economic data, a resilient Demand area, and the bearish positioning of retail traders suggests that the USD/CHF pair may continue its upward trajectory in the near term. Traders should keep an eye on this setup as it could present further opportunities for long positions. PREVIOUS FORECAST ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/CHF in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1