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GOLD Prices Surge as US CPI Data Sparks Fed Rate Cut SpeculationGold prices surged following the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which revealed a slowdown in inflation. This unexpected cooling of inflation has fueled market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may initiate interest rate cuts sooner than anticipated. The CPI data, released on Thursday, indicated that headline inflation in the US had dropped to 3.0% year-on-year in June. This figure is not only below the market’s expectations of 3.1% but also a significant decrease from the previous month’s 3.3%. The slowdown in inflation suggests that the aggressive rate hikes by the Fed over the past year are starting to take effect, reducing the urgency for further rate increases. In response to the CPI data, gold prices hit our sell limit in the supply area, prompting us to open a short setup. Our strategy targets the next demand area as the initial objective. While there is potential for gold prices to decline further to the lower demand zone around $2,220, our current target remains at $2,340. The bearish sentiment among commercial traders aligns with our setup, reinforcing our strategy. Commercials, who are typically large-scale market participants such as producers and merchants, continue to hold a pessimistic outlook on gold. Their positioning often provides valuable insight into market trends, and their current bearish stance supports our short setup. As we move forward, market participants will closely monitor the Fed’s policy decisions and economic indicators for further clues on the direction of interest rates. The possibility of earlier-than-expected rate cuts could continue to influence gold prices and market sentiment. In conclusion, the recent US CPI data has provided a significant boost to gold prices by increasing speculation about future Fed rate cuts. Our strategic short setup aims to capitalize on this movement, with a cautious eye on potential further declines. The alignment of commercial traders’ bearish outlook with our setup adds further confidence to our strategy as we navigate the evolving market landscape. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD Market Update: Trends and Strategic InsightsGold has surged to approximately $2,383 on Thursday, reflecting ongoing market expectations of impending interest-rate reductions. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his recent testimony to US lawmakers, has artfully balanced cautious optimism regarding inflation moderation and the pursuit of a soft-landing scenario that avoids significant job losses. Powell underscored the Fed's commitment to a vigilant, data-driven approach to inflation dynamics. Our analysis points towards an intriguing development as Gold nears a critical supply area around $2,400. Here, we've identified a potential reversal pattern amidst bearish positioning by the Commercials. Observing what could be a triple top formation, market conditions suggest a pivotal juncture where the price might pivot. As Gold continues its ascent amid evolving economic cues, staying attuned to these market signals becomes crucial for anticipating potential price movements and strategic positioning. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Continues to Rise: Potential Resistance Levels AheadAs forecasted in our previous analysis, the EUR/USD pair is continuing its upward trajectory. This growth is in line with our expectations, but we are approaching key levels where the pair may encounter resistance. One of the primary resistance areas we have identified is around the 1.0860 level. This supply area has been drawn based on historical price actions and is anticipated to act as a barrier to the current upward momentum. Just beyond this level, we see further resistance at the psychological level of 1.0900, which often serves as a significant hurdle due to market sentiment and trader behaviors. In these areas, we are looking for a possible reversal of the price. This outlook is reinforced by the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which provides insights into the positioning of major market participants. The COT report indicates that traders may be preparing for a shift, aligning with our expectation of resistance and potential price reversal at these levels. Additionally, the chart reveals a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level that coincides with our identified resistance zones. Fibonacci levels are widely used in technical analysis to predict potential reversal points, and the 78.6% retracement is particularly notable for its reliability in signaling resistance. Furthermore, the dynamic trendline of a bearish channel, which has been tracking the pair's movements, also intersects near these resistance levels. This trendline adds another layer of potential resistance, suggesting that the price may rebound upon reaching this confluence of technical indicators. Although this detail is secondary, it provides additional confirmation of our analysis. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Copper: Anticipating Potential Reversals Amid Bullish TrendFollowing a rebound at the $4.3320 Demand area, copper has started a bullish upside movement. In our analysis, we have identified two potential reversal points that align with recognized Supply areas and the seasonal trend analysis. These areas are critical for our strategy, as they indicate possible turning points in the current uptrend. Additionally, within these identified areas, there is a confluence of Fibonacci levels. While these Fibo levels are secondary in importance compared to the Supply and Demand analysis, they still provide valuable insights into potential resistance points. Given this comprehensive analysis, we are looking for short positions as copper approaches these key Supply areas. The confluence of seasonal trends, Supply area recognition, and secondary Fibonacci levels supports our anticipation of potential reversals, making this an opportune moment to prepare for short trades. ✅ Please share your thoughts about Copper in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
COMEX:HG1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
AUD/USD Faces Potential Reversal: Key Supply Zones in FocusDespite a backdrop of improved risk aversion on Monday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) appreciated, bolstered by domestic economic factors. Persistent high inflation, robust Retail Sales, and a strong Services PMI have provided support to the AUD, leading the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to delay potential rate cuts. However, this upward momentum is tempered by renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD), which puts pressure on the AUD/USD pair. The USD's outlook is complicated by recent US employment data. While Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for June exceeded market expectations, the growth rate was slower compared to May's increase. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate edged higher in June. These indicators suggest that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might face pressure to consider reducing interest rates sooner than anticipated, which could weigh on the USD. In our analysis, the AUD/USD price is nearing a significant area marked by recent Supply zones, where we anticipate a potential price reversal. These zones are critical as they align with historical trends; over the past two years, the AUD has typically started a bearish trend around this time of year. This seasonal pattern, combined with the technical presence of Supply zones, informs our strategy to look for a short setup. In conclusion, the Australian Dollar's recent appreciation is supported by strong domestic economic indicators, but the potential for a bearish reversal looms. The combination of Supply zones and historical seasonality trends points to a possible downturn. We will be closely monitoring these factors to execute a well-timed short trade. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/USD Advances Towards 1.2800 Amid Weak US Economic DataOn Thursday, the GBP/USD pair advanced towards the 1.2800 mark. Renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) propelled GBP/USD higher as markets reacted to disappointing macroeconomic data releases. The ADP's monthly report indicated that payrolls in the private sector increased by 150,000 in June, falling short of the market expectation of 160,000. Additionally, the Department of Labor reported 238,000 first-time applications for unemployment benefits for the week ending June 29, up from 233,000 in the previous week. Moreover, the ISM Services PMI fell to 48.8 in June from 53.8 in May, signaling a contraction in the service sector's business activity. The survey details revealed that the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index declined to 46.1 and 56.3, respectively. From a technical perspective, we anticipate a potential reversal in the supply area where we have set a pending order. Our seasonality analysis also suggests that GBP/USD typically begins a bearish trend during this period of the year, lasting until October. Therefore, we are looking for a bearish setup. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD Price Rides High on Fed Speculation as Market Awaits Datas🟡 The price of gold is riding high on the back of dovish Federal Reserve expectations, a trend that is gaining momentum during the US Independence Day holiday. This bullish rally is likely to see exaggerated movements due to low market liquidity and repositioning by traders ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls data set to be released on Friday. As gold continues its upward trajectory, we have identified a significant supply area where price movements could see a reversal. Over the past decade, this particular period of the year has consistently shown a bearish seasonality for gold prices. This historical trend suggests that despite the current bullish momentum, a downturn may be on the horizon. In preparation for this anticipated shift, we are setting a pending order in the supply area with the intention to short gold in the near future. This strategy aims to capitalize on the expected seasonal decline, leveraging the supply area's historical significance and the current market dynamics influenced by Federal Reserve policies and upcoming economic data. Our analysis indicates that while gold's bullish rally may continue in the short term, the confluence of historical seasonality and key economic data releases presents a compelling opportunity for a well-timed short position. By closely monitoring these factors, we aim to optimize our strategy and maximize potential returns as market conditions evolve. ✅ Please share your thoughts about XAU/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Maintains Bullish Momentum, Surpasses 1.0800As anticipated in our previous forecast, EUR/USD has continued its bullish momentum, climbing above the 1.0800 level. Analyzing the chart, you can observe the areas where we have marked the closest supply zone, which we expect the price to reach before any potential decline. Disappointing macroeconomic data releases from the US triggered a selloff of the US Dollar (USD) during American trading hours on Wednesday, aiding the EUR/USD's upward movement. The ADP reported that private sector payrolls increased by 150,000 in June, missing analysts' estimate of 160,000. Additionally, the Department of Labor's weekly data showed 238,000 first-time applications for unemployment benefits, up from 233,000 the previous week. Furthermore, the ISM Services PMI fell to 48.8 in June from 53.8 in May, indicating a contraction in the service sector's business activity. The Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index of the PMI survey also dropped to 46.1 and 56.3, respectively. Looking ahead, tomorrow's release of USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to introduce further market volatility. Our forecast remains bullish until the price reaches the identified supply area. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EURUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
GBP/NZD: Demand Area Reaction and RSI Divergence Suggest UptrendThe GBP/NZD pair has shown a positive reaction to a significant demand area, with the price beginning to increase in value this morning. This upward movement is accompanied by an RSI divergence originating from oversold levels, which typically signals a potential reversal and further price appreciation. The presence of this RSI divergence strengthens the bullish outlook, as it indicates that the recent selling pressure may be exhausted. Given this context, we anticipate that the price could continue to rise and potentially retest the imbalance areas that have remained unaddressed since the beginning of the month. These imbalance areas represent key levels where the price action previously left gaps or inefficiencies, making them likely targets for a retracement. The combination of the strong demand area, RSI divergence, and untested imbalance zones creates a favorable environment for a bullish scenario in the GBP/NZD pair. Traders should monitor these technical indicators closely, as they provide valuable insights into potential price movements. By aligning trading strategies with these signals, there is an opportunity to capitalize on the expected upward trend.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/AUD Analysis: Anticipating a Bullish InitiativeFollowing our previous analysis, the GBP/AUD pair continues to reside within our identified area of attention, particularly around a key Demand area. This area has been filled, and the price has reacted with an initial reversal. Currently, the price hovers around 1.9015, a level of significant interest for several reasons. Firstly, the COT report reveals that a majority of institutional positions are on the long side. This indicates strong interest from major market players in the upside potential of the GBP/AUD pair, adding credibility to our bullish outlook. Secondly, our seasonality analysis further supports the case for a bullish initiative. Historically, during this part of the year, the GBP/AUD pair tends to experience growth. This seasonal tendency aligns well with our technical and fundamental observations, providing an additional layer of confidence in our analysis. From a technical perspective, the initial reversal from the Demand area suggests that buyers are stepping in at this level, supporting the price and preventing it from falling further. This Demand area, around 1.9015, serves as a crucial support zone where buying interest outweighs selling pressure. In light of these factors, we are actively looking for a bullish initiative. Our strategy involves monitoring the price action for further confirmation of the bullish trend. Key indicators to watch include higher lows and higher highs on shorter time frames, as well as supportive volume patterns that indicate sustained buying interest. We are also paying close attention to any news or events that could impact the GBP/AUD pair, including economic data releases and geopolitical developments. These factors could provide additional catalysts for the anticipated upward movement. In summary, with institutional support, favorable seasonal trends, and technical signals aligning, we are poised to capitalize on the bullish potential of the GBP/AUD pair. We will be looking for optimal entry points to enter long positions, aiming to benefit from the expected price appreciation in the coming weeks. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/AUD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Weakens Amid Caution Ahead of Fed Powell’s SpeechThe GBP/USD pair has retraced to 1.2618 against the US Dollar (USD) during Tuesday’s London session. The pair's weakness is attributed to risk aversion among market participants, driven by uncertainty ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech and the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, scheduled for release on Friday. From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair is moving towards a clear support/Demand area around 1.2540, which appears to be its next target. Powell is expected to provide crucial insights into when the central bank might begin lowering its key borrowing rates. This week, investors will closely monitor labor demand and wage growth data to determine if the Fed will consider reducing interest rates starting from the September meeting, as suggested by the 30-day Federal Fund futures pricing data from the CME FedWatch tool. Given the current market conditions, we are anticipating a bearish continuation towards the Demand area around 1.2540. Once this level is reached, we will look for a potential long position from that area. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Bullish Outlook Following Double Bottom ReactionFollowing our previous analysis, the EUR/USD pair showed a notable reaction to the double bottom pattern we forecasted on Friday. The price bounced off the 1.06800 level, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish impulse. This movement is further supported by the lack of high-tier data releases from the US economic docket in the second half of the day, which means that the USD's valuation is unlikely to be driven by new economic data. As a result, investors are expected to respond primarily to changes in risk perception. On Friday, PMI data from the US indicated that business activity continued to expand at a robust pace in June. This data helped the US Dollar (USD) maintain its strength ahead of the weekend, preventing the EUR/USD pair from gaining significant traction. Given these factors, we anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend for EUR/USD. We will continue to monitor market developments closely and adjust our strategy as necessary to capitalize on this potential upward movement.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD Continues Strong Rise Amid Geopolitical TensionsGold continued its strong rise on Thursday, as we reached our first take profit target and closed 50% of our long position. We remain confident that the price may continue to grow in the short term due to a combination of technical and geopolitical factors. The increasing geopolitical threat level has boosted demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about intensifying geopolitical events worldwide, driving up the metal's appeal. In the Middle East, tensions between Israel and Lebanon escalated dramatically on Wednesday. Israeli officials announced that they had approved plans for the Northern Command to launch an “all-out war” with Hezbollah in Lebanon. This development has significantly increased geopolitical risks, further supporting gold prices. From a technical analysis perspective, several factors indicate a potential continuation of the bullish trend for gold. The price has rebounded from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with a significant support area. Additionally, there is a divergence on the stochastic indicator, suggesting a possible trend reversal or continuation. These technical signals point to a potential move towards the supply area around $2,390, located in a premium price zone. Given these confluences, we are looking for a continuation of the long position in gold. The combination of heightened geopolitical tensions and strong technical signals supports our bullish outlook. As gold remains a preferred safe-haven asset, we anticipate further upward movement in the short term.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
AUD/USD Starts New Week with Positive Tone,Rebound ExpectedThe AUD/USD pair kicked off the new week on a positive note, hinting at a potential rebound from a significant support area that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This comes after a bearish reversal observed last week, which saw the pair correcting from its previous bullish momentum. Recent Trading Activity Last week, we successfully closed a profitable position by capitalizing on the bullish impulse. Our detailed analysis and forecast, available on our page, accurately predicted the upward movement, allowing us to ride the bullish wave to its peak. Technical Analysis Currently, the AUD/USD is showing signs of a potential reversal from the support area. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, known for being a strong support level, adds further weight to this potential rebound. This Fibonacci level is often seen as a critical point where prices tend to find support and reverse, especially after a significant bearish correction. Market Sentiment and Trend Analysis Analyzing the market sentiment, an upside break this week appears marginally more likely than a downside break. This outlook is based on the observation that the trend prior to the formation of the current range was bullish. Typically, when a range forms after a strong trend, the breakout tends to follow the direction of the initial trend. Therefore, the probability of an upward breakout remains slightly higher. Trading Strategy Given the technical indicators and market sentiment, we have decided to open a bullish setup. This setup offers a positive risk/reward (R/R) ratio, making it a viable long-term trade. By positioning ourselves for a potential rebound, we aim to capitalize on the expected upward movement while managing our risk effectively.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/USD: Assessing Momentum and Pullback OpportunitiesGBP/USD gained significant bullish momentum on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since early March, climbing above 1.2850. The pair managed to sustain most of its gains throughout the day, closing in positive territory for the third consecutive session. However, in the late American session, some of these gains were pared back. Early Thursday, GBP/USD is struggling to preserve its bullish momentum and is trading below 1.2800, around 1.2785 as I write this article. This recent upward movement is attributed to a combination of factors. Firstly, the broader market sentiment has been relatively positive, providing support to the GBP/USD pair. Secondly, the British Pound has benefited from the recent economic data, which has been relatively strong, suggesting that the UK economy is recovering at a steady pace. On the other hand, the US Dollar has been under pressure due to expectations that the Federal Reserve might adopt a more cautious approach to future interest rate hikes, especially after recent comments from Fed officials and economic data pointing towards a potential slowdown in the US economy. From a technical perspective, the Pound is in a clear uptrend against the USD. The price is positioned above the major moving averages, indicating strong bullish sentiment. Additionally, the Stochastic indicator has moved out of the oversold condition, signaling that there might be more room for the pair to rise. The recent price action has created a bullish structure, with higher highs and higher lows being formed on the chart. We are currently looking for a potential pullback to the Fibonacci retracement area, which could provide a new buying opportunity for traders. This pullback could help consolidate recent gains and provide a base for the next bullish impulse. The key levels to watch on the downside include the 1.2750 and 1.2700 support areas, which could act as a strong barrier against further declines. On the upside, if the pair can break above the recent high of 1.2850, it could open the door for further gains towards 1.2900 and beyond. In summary, while GBP/USD has shown strong bullish momentum recently, it is currently facing some resistance around the 1.2800 level. However, from a technical standpoint, the uptrend remains intact, and a pullback to the Fibonacci area could offer a good buying opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on the ongoing bullish trend. The overall market sentiment, economic data, and central bank policies will continue to play a crucial role in determining the future direction of the pair.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Follows Bullish Path Post-CPI; Buy Limit Strategy FocusEUR/USD experienced a significant upward movement on Wednesday, driven by an overall increase in market risk appetite following the release of a cooler-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. This positive sentiment was initially bolstered as the lower inflation figures suggested a potential easing of pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively. However, the enthusiasm was tempered later in the day due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance reflected in its latest update to the dot plot of interest rate expectations. This update indicated a possibility of more rate hikes in the future than previously anticipated, which crimped market sentiment. From a technical standpoint, the price action adhered closely to our earlier analysis. The EUR/USD pair achieved all the take-profit targets we had established beforehand. Post-FOMC meeting, the price action retraced the gains from the CPI-induced bullish impulse, creating a gap in the market. This gap, left by the rapid price movement following the CPI release, typically attracts market participants looking to "fill" it, as prices often return to these levels to establish more balanced trading conditions. Given the current scenario, we are contemplating a strategic approach involving a potential buy limit order. This approach is based on the expectation that the price will return to cover the unfilled gap left by the CPI announcement. The buy limit order would allow us to enter the market at a more advantageous price point, capitalizing on the anticipated retracement. Additionally, the broader economic context and market sentiment will be closely monitored to adjust our strategy as needed, ensuring that our trading decisions are well-informed and responsive to ongoing developments. In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair has shown resilience and upward momentum, the mixed signals from recent economic data and Fed communications warrant a cautious yet opportunistic approach. By setting a buy limit order, we aim to leverage the expected price correction, positioning ourselves to benefit from subsequent bullish movements.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CAD Faces Resistance at 1.3780, Potential Reversal in SightThe USD/CAD pair has reached the 1.3780 area of resistance, signaling a potential reversal. This comes in the wake of a robust Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May, which dispelled fears of a weakening labor market. The report indicated strong labor demand across all sectors and higher-than-expected wage growth. Market Dynamics 1. Strong NFP Report: The latest NFP data highlighted a resilient labor market, easing concerns about a slowdown. This strength in the labor market has influenced market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. 2. Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Investors now anticipate that the Fed will cut interest rates once this year, likely in November or December. This outlook is shaping the market's response to recent economic data. Upcoming Economic Indicators To gain more insights into the Fed’s potential actions, investors are keenly awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May and the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy announcement, both scheduled for Wednesday. These events are expected to provide further clarity on the interest rate outlook. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair is approaching a significant resistance level at 1.3780. The price action suggests a potential reversal as it encounters this resistance.n. in conclusion the USD/CAD pair is at a critical juncture, facing resistance at the 1.3780 level. The strong NFP report for May has bolstered the USD, but upcoming CPI data and the Fed’s monetary policy announcement will be crucial in determining the next move. From a technical standpoint, signs are pointing towards a potential reversal at this resistance level. Investors and traders should remain vigilant and look for clear reversal signals before making trading decisions.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CAD Edges Lower as Traders Eye Key US Economic DataUSD/CAD is trending lower during the Asian session on Wednesday, currently trading around 1.3750. This recent movement follows a notable reversal from the 1.3790 area, where technical indicators suggested a potential change in direction. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD pair exhibited signs of overbought conditions around the 1.3790 mark, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the H4 timeframe. A divergence was observed, signaling that the bullish momentum was weakening and a reversal was likely. The pair has since edged lower, reflecting these technical signals. Market Sentiment and Economic Data The market is now focused on upcoming US economic data releases, which are anticipated to inject significant volatility into the trading environment. The key events include the release of the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. Core CPI Data The Core CPI data, set to be released today, is a critical measure of inflation that excludes food and energy prices. This indicator is closely watched by traders and investors as it provides insights into underlying inflationary pressures within the US economy. Stronger-than-expected CPI figures could reinforce expectations of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially supporting the US Dollar and influencing the USD/CAD pair. FOMC Decision In addition to the inflation data, the FOMC decision is another pivotal event for the day. The Federal Reserve's policy statement and subsequent press conference will offer guidance on the central bank's outlook and future monetary policy actions. Market participants will be keenly observing any hints regarding the timing and extent of interest rate adjustments. The FOMC's tone and projections will be crucial in determining the next directional move for the USD/CAD pair. Anticipated Volatility Given the significance of these economic events, traders are preparing for heightened volatility. The Core CPI and FOMC decision are expected to provide the necessary catalyst for a potential continuation of the reversal observed in the USD/CAD pair. Depending on the outcomes, we could see significant movements as traders react to the data and adjust their positions accordingly. in conclusion USD/CAD is currently consolidating its recent losses around 1.3750, following a technical reversal from the 1.3790 area. The pair's future direction will likely be influenced by today's Core CPI release and the FOMC decision. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility and potential continuation of the bearish trend, especially if the economic data aligns with the technical indicators pointing towards a reversal.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Presents New Reversal Opportunity at 157.390The USD/JPY pair, having reached the target of our previous analysis, is now presenting another trading opportunity around the 157.390 level. This level is showing potential for a new reversal. Market Dynamics Current Setup: The price is forming an inversion swing pattern (fractal), indicating a possible downward push. Technical Indicators: The swing pattern at 157.390 suggests a potential shift in momentum, making it an attractive level for a reversal trade. Trading Strategy Given the current setup and following the movements of other pairs against the USD, we are considering a short scalping position. Key considerations include: Inversion Swing Pattern: The fractal pattern forming at the 157.390 level signals a possible bearish reversal. Short Scalping Position: The technical setup suggests a potential push down, making it a suitable scenario for a short-term scalping trade. In conclusion the USD/JPY pair is showing a new reversal opportunity at 157.390, with the formation of an inversion swing pattern suggesting a potential downward move. Traders may consider a short scalping position based on this technical setup, looking to capitalize on the anticipated bearish impulse.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD Awaits Volatility Ahead of Key US Data and FOMC DecisionThe EUR/USD pair is currently oscillating within a narrow range of 1.0750 - 1.0722 during the Asian session on Wednesday, consolidating the losses accumulated over the past three days. This period of consolidation comes as traders adopt a cautious approach, awaiting significant economic events before committing to new directional bets. Market Sentiment and Upcoming Economic Data The subdued trading activity can be attributed to the anticipation surrounding the release of the US consumer inflation figures and the crucial Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. Both events are expected to have a substantial impact on market volatility and could provide fresh momentum for the EUR/USD pair. US Consumer Inflation Figures The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, particularly the Core CPI m/m, is a key indicator of inflation and is closely watched by market participants. The data release is expected to shed light on the current inflationary pressures within the US economy and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Strong inflation data could bolster expectations of a hawkish Fed, potentially supporting the US Dollar and putting further pressure on the EUR/USD pair. FOMC Decision In addition to the inflation data, the FOMC decision is another critical event on the horizon. The Federal Reserve's policy statement and subsequent press conference will provide insights into the central bank's economic outlook and future policy actions. Traders will be particularly interested in any indications regarding the timing of interest rate hikes or tapering of asset purchases. A more hawkish stance could lead to increased demand for the US Dollar, impacting the EUR/USD pair. Technical Perspective From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair is currently in a phase of consolidation. The price is hovering around the support level at 1.0722 and resistance at 1.0750. The market is awaiting the release of the Core CPI m/m and the FOMC decision to trigger the necessary volatility for a significant price movement. Given the current technical indicators and market sentiment, we are looking for a potential long impulse once the data is released. In conclusion the EUR/USD pair remains in a tight range as traders await key economic data and the FOMC decision. The outcome of these events will likely determine the next directional move for the pair. From a technical perspective, we anticipate a bullish impulse following the release of the US inflation figures and the FOMC announcement, provided the data supports such a move. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility and be ready to adjust their positions accordingly.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Loses Momentum as Market Awaits Key US Economic DataThe EUR/USD pair experienced a setback on Tuesday after reaching its highest level since late March, climbing above 1.0900 before closing the day in negative territory. The pair's near-term technical outlook suggests a lack of bullish momentum as attention shifts to upcoming macroeconomic data releases from the United States. Technical Analysis Overview In the lower timeframes, particularly on the H1 chart, EUR/USD shows a harmonic movement within an uptrend, characterized by swing highs and lower highs. Pullbacks have been consistently supported at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potentially strong base for a new bullish impulse. This technical setup suggests that a positive reaction to upcoming economic news could trigger a fresh upward movement. Key Economic Data Releases The focus is now on two critical economic indicators from the US: the ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI for May. These releases are expected to provide significant insights into the state of the US economy and influence the EUR/USD pair's trajectory. 1. ADP Employment Change: Market expectations are for a rise of 173,000 in private sector employment for May. This report is an important gauge of the labor market's health and can affect market perceptions of the Federal Reserve's future policy moves. 2. ISM Services PMI: The ISM Services PMI is projected to recover to a reading above 50, indicating expansion, with expectations set at 50.5 for May, up from April's 49.4. A reading above 50 suggests growth in the services sector, which is crucial for overall economic performance. Potential Market Reactions The EUR/USD pair's movements will be significantly influenced by these data releases. Stronger-than-expected figures could bolster the US Dollar, exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, if the data disappoints, it could weaken the USD, providing a potential boost to the EUR/USD pair. Conclusion Currently, the EUR/USD pair displays a lack of sustained bullish momentum, but the upcoming US economic data could serve as a catalyst for change. Traders should pay close attention to the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI releases, as they will offer crucial insights into the health of the US economy and guide expectations for future monetary policy. The technical outlook on the lower timeframes indicates a potential for a bullish impulse, provided that the economic data supports such a move. The EUR/USD pair remains at a pivotal point, with the direction likely to be shaped by the forthcoming macroeconomic indicators.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD:Potential Market Movements Ahead of Key US Economic DataOn Monday, EUR/USD reached its highest level since late March, surpassing 1.0915. However, after making slight gains during the Asian session on Tuesday, the pair lost momentum and fell below this level. Market participants are now focused on the April JOLTS Job Openings data from the US, set to be released later today. US Economic Indicators On Monday, data from the US revealed that the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7 in May from 49.2 in April, indicating that business activity in the manufacturing sector continued to contract at an accelerating rate. Furthermore, the Prices Paid Index, which measures inflation, decreased to 57 from 60.9. Following the release of the PMI report, the US Dollar (USD) experienced significant selling pressure, aiding the EUR/USD in pushing higher. Federal Reserve Rate Expectations The probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining its policy rate unchanged in September dropped to 40% from nearly 50% before the PMI data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This shift in expectations has influenced the market sentiment towards the USD. Upcoming JOLTS Job Openings Data Today's release of the US JOLTS Job Openings data will be crucial. If the data falls below expectations, it could trigger another upward move in EUR/USD. Currently, the price is finding support levels, while the optimistic forecast for JOLTS Job Openings suggests potential strength for the USD. Strategic Trade Setup In anticipation of potential market reactions, we have placed two Buy Limit orders to capitalize on possible pullback areas for the EUR. These orders are set to engage if the price dips, positioning us to benefit from a subsequent upward movement. In summary, the EUR/USD pair's movements will be significantly influenced by today's JOLTS Job Openings data. Traders should watch for deviations from forecasts, as this will likely impact both the EUR and USD.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/JPY Faces Downward Pressure Despite Market 'Yenterventions'On Wednesday, GBP/JPY experienced a slight decline, easing to 200.30 but remaining close to multi-decade highs near 200.75. The pair has drifted into bullish territory as markets seem to dismiss potential "Yenterventions" by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which have yet to be confirmed. Despite speculation about direct intervention in global foreign exchange markets, the Yen continues to weaken. The primary driver behind the Yen's ongoing decline is the substantial interest rate differential between the Yen and other major global currencies. This wide gap in interest rates has kept JPY flows on the short side, as investors seek higher yields elsewhere. Even with repeated warnings from BoJ policymakers, the market continues to sell the Yen, demonstrating limited impact from these interventions. Furthermore, the BoJ's stance and actions have been under scrutiny, as their commitment to maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy contrasts sharply with the tightening cycles observed in other major economies. This divergence in monetary policies exacerbates the Yen's depreciation, as higher interest rates elsewhere attract capital flows away from Japan. From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY shows signs of divergence on the higher time frame charts. This divergence indicates a potential bearish setup, suggesting that the pair might be due for a correction after its recent highs. Technical analysts often use such divergences as early indicators of potential reversals in trend, as they reflect underlying market conditions that may not be immediately apparent in the price action alone. In addition to the technical signals, the broader market sentiment and macroeconomic factors should be considered. The ongoing uncertainty regarding the BoJ's actual interventions and the general risk sentiment in global markets could influence GBP/JPY movements. As such, while the pair currently remains in bullish territory, traders should stay vigilant for signs of a potential reversal, particularly given the mixed signals from both fundamental and technical perspectives. In summary, GBP/JPY has shown resilience near multi-decade highs despite the BoJ's warnings and potential interventions. However, the significant interest rate differential and technical indicators of divergence suggest a possible bearish setup. Investors and traders should closely monitor both the BoJ's actions and broader market trends to navigate this complex trading environment effectively.
Short
by FOREXN1
1