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USD/JPY Loses Ground Despite Strong Economic Data but..The Japanese Yen continued to weaken on Thursday, even as economic data showed a positive trend. The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.2% year-over-year in May, up from April's 1.8%, which marked a 26-month low. In addition, Japan’s Retail Sales (YoY) grew 2.4% in April, accelerating from a downwardly revised 1.1% rise in March and surpassing market forecasts of 1.9% growth. This marks the 26th consecutive month of expansion, indicating a sustained period of healthy consumption in Japan. Monetary Policy Implications The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its deeply entrenched monetary policy stance. Should nationwide inflation in Japan decline, it would prevent the central bank from raising interest rates. The significant rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to exert pressure on the Japanese Yen, underpinning the USD/JPY pair. US Dollar Rebound The US Dollar (USD) rebounded ahead of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is due to be released today. However, the decline in US Treasury yields could limit the advance of the US Dollar. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, we are anticipating a rebound for the Yen, particularly if the US Core PCE Price Index shows a negative impact. The footprint analysis reveals several areas of demand on the daily timeframe chart, where the value could find support for a possible reversal. Investors should monitor the upcoming Core PCE data closely, as it will likely influence the near-term direction of both the USD and JPY.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Identifying Bearish OpportunitiesThe EUR/JPY presents a compelling price action scenario with notable opportunities. Recently, the pair encountered strong absorption at the 171.500 level, evidenced by a significant spike indicating substantial seller presence in this price area. This absorption led to a pronounced bearish impulse driving the price down to the 164.000 level. Since then, the price has been on a recovery trajectory, creating an area of imbalance that the market may seek to revisit for potential retests of previous price levels. In addition to these observations, technical analysis reveals a divergence on the RSI, which suggests a potential double top formation. This divergence indicates weakening bullish momentum, strengthening the case for a bearish outlook. Given these conditions, we have positioned our stop loss at 171.000 to protect against any attempts by the price to retest higher absorption levels above the current range. This strategic setup highlights a promising bearish opportunity, supported by the significant absorption at the 171.500 level, the initial bearish impulse around 164.000, and the divergence observed on the RSI. Traders should closely monitor these technical indicators and price levels to capitalize on potential market movements. This analysis underscores the importance of vigilance in managing positions and adjusting strategies as the market evolves.
Short
by FOREXN1
6
GOLD Surges Following Lower-than-Expected US Core PCE DataGold experienced a significant boost on Friday after the release of marginally lower-than-expected US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The core PCE for April was reported at 0.2% month-over-month, below the forecasted 0.3%. This data initially propelled gold to a peak of $2,359, but the gains were short-lived as prices quickly corrected. Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis The price has now returned to our area of attention, demonstrating a bullish divergence on the Stochastic RSI indicator as the new week begins, suggesting a bullish bias. Additionally, the daily footprint chart reveals a spike of rejection from a passive order block by buyers, reinforcing the potential for a bullish movement. Impact of Inflation Data on Fed Expectations The slightly lower inflation data has shifted market expectations regarding the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 55% from approximately 50% previously. This development is generally positive for gold, as it tends to appreciate when interest rates fall due to its non-yielding nature. Investor Sentiment Despite this, gold investors remain cautious given the persistent high inflation and the Fed's uncertain policy direction. The ongoing ambiguity surrounding the Fed's future actions continues to influence market sentiment. Outlook We anticipate a potential appreciation in gold value today, supported by the recent data and technical indicators. Investors should keep an eye on further developments in inflation data and Fed communications to gauge the longer-term trajectory for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
AUD/USD: Implications of JOLTS Job Openings DataThe Australian Dollar experienced a marginal decline amidst concerns surrounding an unexpected current account deficit totaling A$4.9 billion in the first quarter. Concurrently, the growth forecast for Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been revised downward to 1.2% year-over-year, a decrease from the previous rate of 1.5%. Conversely, the US Dollar maintained stability, supported by an upward correction in US Treasury yields, highlighting a contrasting trend. In terms of technical analysis, recent market movements nearly reached our predefined profit-taking level before retracing to a region of interest. We are now poised to consider long positions, particularly in light of the forthcoming release of US JOLTS Job Openings data later today, which could potentially fall short of optimistic expectations. Key market drivers include the unexpected Australian Current Account Deficit, indicative of underlying economic challenges, and the anticipated slowdown in GDP growth, both of which could exert further pressure on the Australian Dollar. Conversely, the USD remains fortified by the resilience of US Treasury Yields. The impending release of the JOLTS Job Openings Data assumes critical importance, with the potential to significantly influence the trajectory of the AUD against the USD. Should the data fail to meet optimistic forecasts, we stand prepared to capitalize on renewed AUD strength, leveraging any disparity in US economic indicators.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD: Potential Rebound from Consolidation ZoneThe EUR/USD pair remains in a sideways movement following the profit realized from our previous analysis. The price reversed during the latter part of Friday after US data revealed that inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, increased by 2.7% year-over-year in April, consistent with March's figures and market expectations. Today, the price is approaching the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels within this consolidation zone, indicating a possible rebound following the release of the US PMI data later today. Current forecasts suggest a bearish sentiment favoring the US Dollar. Key Economic Indicators Later today, the US economic docket will feature the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for May. Investors anticipate an improvement in the reading to 49.8 from April's 49.2. A reading above 50 would indicate a return to expansion territory for business activity, potentially supporting the USD in the latter half of the day. Conversely, if the data meets or falls below expectations, a price rebound from the indicated area is likely. Technical Analysis: Footprint Chart Insights The footprint chart shows a block of buy orders that could be triggered in correlation with limit orders, supporting a potential price rebound. This aligns with the anticipated market reaction to today's PMI data, making this a critical area to watch for possible bullish movement. In summary, keep an eye on the US PMI data release today, as it will play a pivotal role in determining the EUR/USD movement. The technical setup and current forecasts suggest a potential rebound from the consolidation zone, depending on the PMI results.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
USD/CAD: Implications of US Treasury Auction ResultsOn Wednesday, the Canadian Dollar experienced a weakening trend across various currency pairs, as the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar gained traction in the broader market. This decline in the Canadian Dollar's value was notably influenced by subdued bid-to-cover ratios observed in a US Treasury auction held on Tuesday, which contributed to dampened market sentiment as the week progressed, leading to a decrease in risk appetite among investors. From a technical standpoint, the price has initiated a reversal from a previous supply area, signaling a potential bearish continuation trajectory below demand regions. This technical analysis suggests a shift in market dynamics favoring downward movement in the Canadian Dollar's value. The economic calendar for Canada remained relatively quiet on Wednesday, with attention now turning to Thursday's release of the Canadian Current Account data. Market expectations anticipate a decline to -5.5 billion, following a climb to a six-month high of -1.62 billion in the previous quarter. Subsequently, on Friday, investors will await the release of Canadian Q1 Gross Domestic Product figures, which are projected to stabilize at 0.0% month-on-month, compared to the previous reading of 0.2%. These upcoming data releases are likely to further influence trading sentiment surrounding the Canadian Dollar.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
AUD/USD Rises Amid Positive Economic Indicators and PMI releaseThe Australian Dollar started the Monday session on a strong note, accelerating ahead of the ISM Manufacturing PMI release. During the early hours of the Asian session, the AUD received support as Australia's minimum wage increased by 3.75%, aligning with market estimates that ranged from 3.5% to 4.0%. Key Factors Driving the AUD/USD Pair Wage Increase: The significant 3.75% increase in the minimum wage in Australia provided a boost to the Australian Dollar, reflecting confidence in the domestic economy. US Inflation Data: The AUD/USD pair also strengthened following the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data. As the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE data for April indicated that price pressures were easing, which had a positive impact on the AUD. Australia's Inflation Rate: Australia's monthly inflation rate accelerated to 3.6%, increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might consider raising interest rates again. This further supported the AUD's upward momentum. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, we can observe a divergence in the price action with the value above the 200 EMA. This suggests a potential bullish setup. Given these technical and fundamental factors, we are looking for a long position on the AUD/USD pair. Conclusion The Australian Dollar's strength is underpinned by positive domestic economic indicators and easing US inflation pressures. With the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI release, investors will be closely watching for further cues. Based on the current technical setup and supportive fundamentals, a long position on the AUD/USD pair appears favorable.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/CAD Accumulation Area Suggests Imminent Bearish ShiftThe GBP/CAD pair recently reached a market high on September 23, 2023. Presently, the price is situated in an accumulation area, suggesting the potential for a bearish reversal. Technical analysis indicates that the pair may retrace to the 1.7300 level and potentially beyond. Given the current market conditions, we have identified signs that support a possible downward movement. The accumulation area, characterized by price consolidation, often precedes a significant price movement. In this case, the consolidation at the top suggests that the market is preparing for a reversal. From a technical perspective, various indicators, including momentum oscillators and trend analysis, support the hypothesis of a bearish reversal. Specifically, divergence observed in higher timeframes points to weakening bullish momentum, increasing the likelihood of a downward correction. Considering these factors, we are looking for a short setup in this region. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels and be prepared for potential market shifts that align with this bearish outlook. Our target for the reversal is initially set at the 1.7300 level, with the possibility of further declines if the bearish trend gains strength. In conclusion, the GBP/CAD pair's recent high and current accumulation phase present a compelling case for a bearish reversal. By carefully observing market signals and technical indicators, traders can position themselves to capitalize on this anticipated market movement.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Finds Support at 1.08150, Investors Await Key Inflation EUR/USD rebounded from the 1.08150 demand area and closed in positive territory on Thursday. The pair fluctuates above 1.0830 during the European session as investors remain cautious ahead of key inflation data. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the annualized first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth down to 1.3% from the initial estimate of 1.6%. Consequently, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield corrected lower, losing more than 1% on Thursday, which undermined the US Dollar (USD) and prevented it from maintaining its strength. From a technical perspective, we are anticipating a potential bullish impulse after the price has captured some liquidity, as indicated in the footprint chart below. We are looking for a long setup.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Gold Price Analysis: Factors and Forecast 🟡Gold Shows Signs of Recovery Despite Stronger USD Gold prices have shown some recovery on Friday, despite the strength of the US Dollar (USD). However, the upside potential for the yellow metal might be constrained by diminishing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. Nonetheless, safe-haven flows due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could provide support to gold prices. Key Factors Influencing Gold Prices Federal Reserve's Influence: Gold investors will closely monitor comments from Federal Reserve officials, with Fed's Waller set to speak on Friday. Hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers could further weigh on gold prices. It is important to note that higher interest rates generally exert downward pressure on gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. US Economic Data: Investors will also look to upcoming US economic indicators, including the Durable Goods Orders and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. These data points can provide further insights into the economic outlook and influence gold price movements. Technical Analysis: Footprint and RSI Insights A footprint analysis indicates a potential recovery in gold value as the price resides in a discount area, accompanied by divergence on the H4 RSI. This divergence suggests that selling pressure might be waning, increasing the likelihood of a price rebound. Additionally, the imbalance observed in the footprint analysis supports the expectation of a recovery in gold prices. Outlook While the strong USD and hawkish Fed stance may limit gold's upside, geopolitical tensions and technical indicators suggest potential support for a price rebound. Investors should watch Fed commentary and economic data releases closely, as these will provide further direction for gold prices. Daily Footprint Analysis:
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
3
Gold Market Update: Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Rhetoric On Tuesday, the US Dollar gained renewed strength during the American trading session as risk sentiment deteriorated due to escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Gaza. Concurrently, hawkish comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari drove US Treasury bond yields higher, which in turn boosted the Greenback from its weekly lows against major currencies. Geopolitical Developments Israeli forces shelled a tent camp in a designated “safe zone” west of Rafah, resulting in the deaths of at least 21 people, including 13 women and girls. This incident marks another mass killing of Palestinian civilians. In response, the UN Security Council convened an emergency meeting to address Israel’s ground invasion of Rafah. Additionally, Spain, Ireland, and Norway formally recognized the state of Palestine, further intensifying geopolitical tensions. Market Reaction These developments led investors to seek safety in the US Dollar, reducing the appeal of Gold as a traditional safe-haven asset. The flight to the Greenback underscores the market's preference for stability amid heightened uncertainty. Technical Analysis: Gold From a technical perspective, Gold is currently retesting areas with a high concentration of bullish orders on the Footprint Daily chart. Despite the recent pullback, the outlook remains positive, and we maintain a long position on Gold. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating risk sentiment are expected to continue influencing Gold prices in the near term. Summary The combination of escalating geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed rhetoric has reinforced the US Dollar's position, while the technical setup for Gold suggests potential for further gains following the recent correction. Investors should closely monitor developments in the Middle East and upcoming Fed statements for further market cues.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Hits Weekly High Amid USD Weakness and ECB UncertaintyEUR/USD reached a new weekly high of 1.0880 during Tuesday’s European session. The major currency pair's strength can be attributed to a softening US Dollar (USD) and increasing uncertainty surrounding the European Central Bank's (ECB) future rate cut decisions following the June meeting. The robust economic outlook for the United States and hawkish guidance from policymakers on interest rates have led traders to adjust their rate expectations. Market speculation on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts will be particularly influenced by the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data for April, scheduled for release on Friday. The core PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is anticipated to have remained steady on both a monthly and annual basis. This data will be crucial in shaping market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy trajectory. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD’s recent price action aligns with our previous forecasts. The currency pair opened Tuesday with a bearish candle at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous swing high. This technical indicator suggests that the pair may be poised for a bearish reversal, potentially leading to a price retracement. The market is also closely watching for signals from ECB policymakers regarding the future path of interest rates. The uncertainty over how aggressively the ECB will reduce key borrowing rates after the June meeting adds an additional layer of complexity to the EUR/USD outlook. ECB officials have recently expressed mixed views on the timing and scale of future rate cuts, which has contributed to the pair's volatility. Furthermore, traders will be monitoring other significant economic indicators this week. In addition to the core PCE data from the US, the market will pay attention to any comments from Federal Reserve officials, as their statements could provide further insights into the Fed's policy stance. The US economic data and Fed communications will be key drivers of USD movement, impacting EUR/USD dynamics. Overall, while EUR/USD has shown strength recently, driven by a weaker USD and ECB-related uncertainties, the technical outlook suggests caution. The bearish candle at the 78.6% Fibonacci level signals the potential for a bearish reversal. Market participants will need to closely watch upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications to gauge the likely direction of EUR/USD in the near term.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Analysis: ECB Stance and Market ExpectationsThe EUR/USD pair has shown strength as European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers refrain from committing to extending the rate-cut cycle beyond the June meeting. This cautious stance suggests that ECB officials are wary of aggressive policy easing, which could reignite inflationary pressures. Market Expectations Adjust In light of recent economic indicators signaling persistent price pressures, such as the Negotiated Wage Rates for the first quarter and the preliminary HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for May, traders' expectations have shifted. Initially anticipating three rate cuts this year, market participants are now expecting only two. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is nearing the 61.8% retracement level from the previous swing high after a pullback around the 1.0800 level. There are several resistances above, with the first significant resistance at the 1.0860 area, and a more crucial resistance at the 1.0900 level. Our outlook suggests a potential bearish retracement towards the 1.0750 level.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
AUD/USD:Traders Eye Australian Retail Sales and CPI DataThe AUD/USD pair saw upward movement on Monday, benefiting from the subdued activity in the US markets due to the Memorial Day holiday, which left the Greenback weaker. This rise extends Friday’s recovery into a second consecutive day, providing some momentum for the Aussie dollar. Economic Indicators to Watch Australian Retail Sales and CPI Data: Tuesday: Traders are eyeing the Australian Retail Sales data for April, expected to show a modest recovery with a 0.2% increase following a 0.4% decline in the previous month. Wednesday: The focus will shift to Australia's Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, anticipated to grow at 3.4% year-over-year, slightly down from March's annualized 3.5%. US PCE Inflation Data: Later in the week, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data will be closely watched, as it could provide further direction for the USD and consequently impact the AUD/USD pair. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD is approaching a critical resistance area: The price is nearing the 61.8% retracement level from the recent daily swing high. Additionally, it is within the 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone from a more localized swing. This convergence area is a potential point of resistance, where sellers might step in, looking for a bearish retracement. The market inefficiency noted earlier still remains unclosed, suggesting a potential downward correction. Trading Outlook Given the current economic outlook and technical indicators, we anticipate a bearish retracement in the AUD/USD pair: Bearish Setup: The 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone could serve as an ideal entry point for sellers. Target: The objective would be to capitalize on the market's inefficiencies and the expected retracement back towards lower levels. In summary, while the AUD/USD pair has found some upward momentum, economic data releases and technical resistance levels suggest that a bearish retracement may be on the horizon. Traders should watch for key data points and technical signals to confirm this potential move.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Faces Pressure Amid USD Strength and Hawkish Fed CommentDuring Wednesday's London session, EUR/USD extended its losses, approaching 1.08370. The pair faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amidst rising risk aversion sentiment. This shift in market sentiment is possibly triggered by hawkish remarks from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who suggested that further rate hikes remain a possibility. Kashkari's comments highlighted uncertainties about the disinflationary process, predicting only two rate cuts, which contributed to the USD's strength. From a technical perspective, as observed in previous analyses, the price rebounded from the 78.6% Fibonacci level. This rebound occurred in confluence with a well-identified supply zone, confirming our earlier forecasts. The price action suggests the potential formation of a double top pattern in this area, indicating a significant resistance level. The initial bearish impulse from this region supports the likelihood of further downside movement. The recent price behavior and technical indicators suggest that EUR/USD may continue its downward trajectory. The formation of the double top pattern, characterized by the two peaks at the supply zone, often signals a trend reversal. Traders should monitor this area closely, as a confirmed double top could lead to a more pronounced bearish move. In addition to the technical factors, the broader macroeconomic environment continues to influence EUR/USD dynamics. The strengthening USD, driven by hawkish Fed rhetoric and ongoing economic uncertainties, poses additional challenges for the Euro. Market participants will likely remain cautious, closely watching upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications for further guidance. Overall, the combination of technical and fundamental factors suggests a cautious outlook for EUR/USD. The current price action, marked by the rebound from the 78.6% Fibonacci level and potential double top formation, aligns with our bearish forecast. Traders should consider these insights when making their trading decisions, remaining vigilant for any shifts in market sentiment or key economic indicators that could impact the pair's direction.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD: Anticipating Downside Movement Amid Market ImbalanceFollowing our previous analysis of the EUR/USD pair, the price has approached the 1.0900 round level, which is significant as it is forming a potential double top pattern. This movement includes a retest of the previous high reached last Wednesday. Currently, there are no major news events impacting the market, which indicates that the price may experience a bearish outcome as it seeks to cover the imbalance observed in the previous week. To support this analysis, I have included a Footprint analysis on a daily timeframe of the Euro futures. This detailed analysis shows that the price has started to exhibit a negative delta, and the cumulative delta has turned red, signaling a shift in market sentiment. Additionally, the volume profile analysis clearly identifies areas with inefficiencies, suggesting that there is an underlying weakness in the recent upward movement. Given these technical indicators, we are expecting a bearish reversal in the near term. The absence of significant news today aligns with this outlook, as the market may be poised to correct the previous week's imbalance without external influences driving volatility. This confluence of factors strengthens our confidence in anticipating a downward movement for the EUR/USD pair. In summary, the technical evidence from the Footprint analysis and volume profile, combined with the lack of impactful news events, points to a likely bearish reversal for the EUR/USD. We recommend closely monitoring these developments and adjusting trading strategies accordingly to capitalize on the anticipated market correction.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
GOLD's Price Correction: Anticipating a Bullish RetracementGold experienced a strong bearish impulse yesterday, intensifying the selling pressure following the release of the FOMC minutes. This downward movement persisted well beyond the initial reaction to the news. Today, the price has reached a significant demand area, presenting a potential buying opportunity at a discounted price. The current price level is below the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the previous swing low and falls within the 78.6% to 88.6% discount ratio from the minor swing low. This technical setup indicates a favorable condition for a potential retracement, where buyers might step in to take advantage of the lower prices. The demand area, combined with the Fibonacci retracement levels, suggests that the current price could be a strategic entry point for a bullish reversal. Given these factors, we are looking for the price to retrace and form a consecutive bullish impulse. This anticipated move could align with the market's tendency to correct after significant bearish movements, especially when key support and demand levels are met. As such, we are positioning ourselves for a potential upward move in the price of gold, capitalizing on the technical signals and the market dynamics observed.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
3
GOLD: Tuesday’s Retracement,Market Remains OptimisticGold experienced a decline following the retracement observed on Tuesday but opened Wednesday on a positive note. Today, members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) issued warnings that the US central bank requires much more compelling evidence that inflation is easing before it can begin cutting interest rates. This caution from the Fed underscores the likelihood that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period, which could potentially boost the Greenback and exert downward pressure on USD-denominated gold. Despite this, the downside for gold may be mitigated by several factors. Renewed trade tensions between the US and China, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and robust demand from central banks and Asian buyers are likely to provide substantial support for the yellow metal. These elements could limit the extent of any decline, keeping gold relatively buoyant despite the adverse impact of a stronger US dollar. Later on Wednesday, gold traders will be closely monitoring the release of the FOMC minutes and a speech by Fed member Goolsbee. These events are expected to offer further insights into the Fed's economic outlook and monetary policy stance, which could influence gold prices. From a technical analysis perspective, the price of gold continues to reside in a zone that suggests a potential bullish impulse. This follows a false breakdown, which we have identified as a Wyckoff spring pattern—a classic signal in technical analysis indicating a possible upward reversal. The price has retested the local 50% retracement area, and from our point of view, this sets the stage for a possible upward movement towards the upper boundary of the current accumulation area. This technical setup, combined with the fundamental factors at play, indicates that gold may have room to grow despite current market pressures.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/JPY: A Closer Look at Recent Market DevelopmentsThe GBP/JPY Futures have demonstrated seven consecutive days of growth, characterized by a consistent retesting of previous market inefficiencies and increasing volumes. Each day, the price has closed above the volume range of every candle, while also maintaining its position above the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). Additionally, the Delta has consistently closed positively at the end of each daily session. Tick volumes have remained below the 20-day Moving Average, indicating a sustained rally trajectory towards the 199.895 area to address buyer and seller inefficiencies. Notably, the current candle exhibits an imbalance between buyers and sellers, reflected in a negative delta. However, it's important to note that this data may fluctuate following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, introducing additional volatility to the pair. British Pound / Japanese Yen Futures
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GOLD Market Outlook: Accumulation Phase and Bullish PotentialGold prices extended their gains on Monday, trading just below the all-time high of $2,450 reached during the Asian session. This movement is driven by growing expectations that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may ease monetary policy in 2024. After hitting the peak at $2,450, the price experienced a retracement to the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with a high-value area and the 20-period VWAP moving average. This confluence of technical factors suggests that the price may be entering an accumulation phase, indicating the potential for a new swing high driven by a bullish impulse. If the market transitions to a distribution phase, the price is likely to revert below the 78.6% Fibonacci level, which has been identified as our stop loss. This level provides a crucial support point that, if breached, could signal a significant shift in market sentiment. This week, the U.S. economic docket will be heavily influenced by statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, leading up to the release of the latest Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. These minutes will offer insights into the Fed's current stance on monetary policy and potential future actions. Additionally, on Thursday, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report is expected to provide further evidence of a cooling labor market. This report, coupled with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, will be closely watched for indications of broader economic trends. Market participants should pay close attention to these developments, as they will likely influence gold prices and overall market sentiment. The interplay between technical indicators and fundamental economic data will be key in determining the next major move in gold prices. As always, traders are advised to stay informed and adjust their strategies accordingly in response to evolving market conditions. In summary, gold prices are positioned just below their historical peak, with technical indicators suggesting potential for further gains. However, the upcoming economic data and Fed communications will play a critical role in shaping market dynamics in the near term. Maintaining a close watch on these factors will be essential for navigating potential market shifts and making informed trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD Futures: H4 Footprint Insights and Daily Chart DynamicsGold Futures Footprint Analysis on the H4 Timeframe reveals an intriguing market dynamic. Monday's opening saw a bearish candle, characterized by a spike that retraced to the previous Point of Control (POC) volume of the preceding candle. This retracement occurred concurrently with a block of previous bullish orders (513+535), suggesting a potential area of resistance. Despite the presence of sellers, there appears to be a notable imbalance favoring buyers, indicating underlying support for a price increase. Although the Delta reflects a bearish sentiment, the sellers' efforts do not seem to exert a significant downward pressure on price movement. This phenomenon aligns with a classic interpretation of price action in CFD trading, commonly referred to as a "retest." Zooming out to the daily chart, we observe that buyer volume slightly surpasses that of sellers, accompanied by a lower Delta compared to the previous candle. This discrepancy implies that a relatively small effort from buyers may yield significant results. Moreover, the POC on the daily chart currently resides on the upper side of the candle, indicating that the majority of transactions or market battles are occurring at higher price levels. This observation further strengthens the case for a bullish continuation. In summary, the Footprint Analysis highlights a nuanced interplay between buyers and sellers in the Gold Futures market. Despite initial bearish signals, the presence of buyer imbalance and strategic positioning on the daily chart suggest a potential bullish momentum continuation. Traders may consider these insights when formulating their trading strategies. Daily Footprint Analysis
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Retreats: Understanding the Factors at PlayGBP/USD underwent a technical correction, retracing to approximately 61.8% from the previous swing high before concluding Thursday's session in negative territory. The pair has continued its downward trend early into Friday. Comments made by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Thursday contributed to a rebound in US Treasury bond yields and bolstered the US Dollar (USD). Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic acknowledged progress in inflation for April but emphasized that the Fed had not yet initiated policy easing. Similarly, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester remarked on the adequacy of current monetary policy, indicating a need to review additional data. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin echoed these sentiments, stating on CNBC that recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data did not align with the Fed's objectives for inflation. Meanwhile, the US Department of Labor reported 222,000 weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 11, down from 232,000 the previous week. From a technical standpoint, there is potential for a bearish correction in the GBP/USD price, targeting the lower end of the chart to address inefficiencies stemming from the preceding bullish rally. This area has been highlighted in the Footprint chart for reference. Footprint chart
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Price Action Analysis: Identifying Trends and OpportunitIn Wednesday’s New York session, the EUR/USD pair surged to a monthly high, nearing 1.0870. This rise in the major currency pair was fueled by developments such as the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) easing in line with estimates, and the monthly Retail Sales figures remaining stagnant for April. The anticipated decrease in price pressures within the US economy, coupled with lackluster Retail Sales data, has created an unfavorable environment for the US Dollar and bond yields. Simultaneously, there are indications suggesting potential opportunities for the USD to capitalize on the EUR rally, primarily evident in inefficiencies within the price footprint. These inefficiencies could potentially exert downward pressure on the EUR in the short term. Furthermore, from a technical perspective, the EUR has reached a premium selling area, indicating the possibility of a double local top formation. This is complemented by divergence in the RSI and an overbought condition observed in both the RSI and Stochastic indicators. These technical signals suggest a potential reversal in the EUR's upward trend, presenting trading opportunities for market participants. Footprint Trigger H1
Short
by FOREXN1
2