Get started

Forexn1

EUR/USD Bullish Outlook Following Double Bottom ReactionFollowing our previous analysis, the EUR/USD pair showed a notable reaction to the double bottom pattern we forecasted on Friday. The price bounced off the 1.06800 level, indicating a potential continuation of the bullish impulse. This movement is further supported by the lack of high-tier data releases from the US economic docket in the second half of the day, which means that the USD's valuation is unlikely to be driven by new economic data. As a result, investors are expected to respond primarily to changes in risk perception. On Friday, PMI data from the US indicated that business activity continued to expand at a robust pace in June. This data helped the US Dollar (USD) maintain its strength ahead of the weekend, preventing the EUR/USD pair from gaining significant traction. Given these factors, we anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend for EUR/USD. We will continue to monitor market developments closely and adjust our strategy as necessary to capitalize on this potential upward movement.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD Continues Strong Rise Amid Geopolitical TensionsGold continued its strong rise on Thursday, as we reached our first take profit target and closed 50% of our long position. We remain confident that the price may continue to grow in the short term due to a combination of technical and geopolitical factors. The increasing geopolitical threat level has boosted demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Investors are becoming increasingly concerned about intensifying geopolitical events worldwide, driving up the metal's appeal. In the Middle East, tensions between Israel and Lebanon escalated dramatically on Wednesday. Israeli officials announced that they had approved plans for the Northern Command to launch an “all-out war” with Hezbollah in Lebanon. This development has significantly increased geopolitical risks, further supporting gold prices. From a technical analysis perspective, several factors indicate a potential continuation of the bullish trend for gold. The price has rebounded from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with a significant support area. Additionally, there is a divergence on the stochastic indicator, suggesting a possible trend reversal or continuation. These technical signals point to a potential move towards the supply area around $2,390, located in a premium price zone. Given these confluences, we are looking for a continuation of the long position in gold. The combination of heightened geopolitical tensions and strong technical signals supports our bullish outlook. As gold remains a preferred safe-haven asset, we anticipate further upward movement in the short term.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
AUD/USD Starts New Week with Positive Tone,Rebound ExpectedThe AUD/USD pair kicked off the new week on a positive note, hinting at a potential rebound from a significant support area that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This comes after a bearish reversal observed last week, which saw the pair correcting from its previous bullish momentum. Recent Trading Activity Last week, we successfully closed a profitable position by capitalizing on the bullish impulse. Our detailed analysis and forecast, available on our page, accurately predicted the upward movement, allowing us to ride the bullish wave to its peak. Technical Analysis Currently, the AUD/USD is showing signs of a potential reversal from the support area. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, known for being a strong support level, adds further weight to this potential rebound. This Fibonacci level is often seen as a critical point where prices tend to find support and reverse, especially after a significant bearish correction. Market Sentiment and Trend Analysis Analyzing the market sentiment, an upside break this week appears marginally more likely than a downside break. This outlook is based on the observation that the trend prior to the formation of the current range was bullish. Typically, when a range forms after a strong trend, the breakout tends to follow the direction of the initial trend. Therefore, the probability of an upward breakout remains slightly higher. Trading Strategy Given the technical indicators and market sentiment, we have decided to open a bullish setup. This setup offers a positive risk/reward (R/R) ratio, making it a viable long-term trade. By positioning ourselves for a potential rebound, we aim to capitalize on the expected upward movement while managing our risk effectively.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/USD: Assessing Momentum and Pullback OpportunitiesGBP/USD gained significant bullish momentum on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since early March, climbing above 1.2850. The pair managed to sustain most of its gains throughout the day, closing in positive territory for the third consecutive session. However, in the late American session, some of these gains were pared back. Early Thursday, GBP/USD is struggling to preserve its bullish momentum and is trading below 1.2800, around 1.2785 as I write this article. This recent upward movement is attributed to a combination of factors. Firstly, the broader market sentiment has been relatively positive, providing support to the GBP/USD pair. Secondly, the British Pound has benefited from the recent economic data, which has been relatively strong, suggesting that the UK economy is recovering at a steady pace. On the other hand, the US Dollar has been under pressure due to expectations that the Federal Reserve might adopt a more cautious approach to future interest rate hikes, especially after recent comments from Fed officials and economic data pointing towards a potential slowdown in the US economy. From a technical perspective, the Pound is in a clear uptrend against the USD. The price is positioned above the major moving averages, indicating strong bullish sentiment. Additionally, the Stochastic indicator has moved out of the oversold condition, signaling that there might be more room for the pair to rise. The recent price action has created a bullish structure, with higher highs and higher lows being formed on the chart. We are currently looking for a potential pullback to the Fibonacci retracement area, which could provide a new buying opportunity for traders. This pullback could help consolidate recent gains and provide a base for the next bullish impulse. The key levels to watch on the downside include the 1.2750 and 1.2700 support areas, which could act as a strong barrier against further declines. On the upside, if the pair can break above the recent high of 1.2850, it could open the door for further gains towards 1.2900 and beyond. In summary, while GBP/USD has shown strong bullish momentum recently, it is currently facing some resistance around the 1.2800 level. However, from a technical standpoint, the uptrend remains intact, and a pullback to the Fibonacci area could offer a good buying opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on the ongoing bullish trend. The overall market sentiment, economic data, and central bank policies will continue to play a crucial role in determining the future direction of the pair.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Follows Bullish Path Post-CPI; Buy Limit Strategy FocusEUR/USD experienced a significant upward movement on Wednesday, driven by an overall increase in market risk appetite following the release of a cooler-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. This positive sentiment was initially bolstered as the lower inflation figures suggested a potential easing of pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates aggressively. However, the enthusiasm was tempered later in the day due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance reflected in its latest update to the dot plot of interest rate expectations. This update indicated a possibility of more rate hikes in the future than previously anticipated, which crimped market sentiment. From a technical standpoint, the price action adhered closely to our earlier analysis. The EUR/USD pair achieved all the take-profit targets we had established beforehand. Post-FOMC meeting, the price action retraced the gains from the CPI-induced bullish impulse, creating a gap in the market. This gap, left by the rapid price movement following the CPI release, typically attracts market participants looking to "fill" it, as prices often return to these levels to establish more balanced trading conditions. Given the current scenario, we are contemplating a strategic approach involving a potential buy limit order. This approach is based on the expectation that the price will return to cover the unfilled gap left by the CPI announcement. The buy limit order would allow us to enter the market at a more advantageous price point, capitalizing on the anticipated retracement. Additionally, the broader economic context and market sentiment will be closely monitored to adjust our strategy as needed, ensuring that our trading decisions are well-informed and responsive to ongoing developments. In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair has shown resilience and upward momentum, the mixed signals from recent economic data and Fed communications warrant a cautious yet opportunistic approach. By setting a buy limit order, we aim to leverage the expected price correction, positioning ourselves to benefit from subsequent bullish movements.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CAD Faces Resistance at 1.3780, Potential Reversal in SightThe USD/CAD pair has reached the 1.3780 area of resistance, signaling a potential reversal. This comes in the wake of a robust Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May, which dispelled fears of a weakening labor market. The report indicated strong labor demand across all sectors and higher-than-expected wage growth. Market Dynamics 1. Strong NFP Report: The latest NFP data highlighted a resilient labor market, easing concerns about a slowdown. This strength in the labor market has influenced market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. 2. Fed Rate Cut Expectations: Investors now anticipate that the Fed will cut interest rates once this year, likely in November or December. This outlook is shaping the market's response to recent economic data. Upcoming Economic Indicators To gain more insights into the Fed’s potential actions, investors are keenly awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May and the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy announcement, both scheduled for Wednesday. These events are expected to provide further clarity on the interest rate outlook. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair is approaching a significant resistance level at 1.3780. The price action suggests a potential reversal as it encounters this resistance.n. in conclusion the USD/CAD pair is at a critical juncture, facing resistance at the 1.3780 level. The strong NFP report for May has bolstered the USD, but upcoming CPI data and the Fed’s monetary policy announcement will be crucial in determining the next move. From a technical standpoint, signs are pointing towards a potential reversal at this resistance level. Investors and traders should remain vigilant and look for clear reversal signals before making trading decisions.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/CAD Edges Lower as Traders Eye Key US Economic DataUSD/CAD is trending lower during the Asian session on Wednesday, currently trading around 1.3750. This recent movement follows a notable reversal from the 1.3790 area, where technical indicators suggested a potential change in direction. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD pair exhibited signs of overbought conditions around the 1.3790 mark, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the H4 timeframe. A divergence was observed, signaling that the bullish momentum was weakening and a reversal was likely. The pair has since edged lower, reflecting these technical signals. Market Sentiment and Economic Data The market is now focused on upcoming US economic data releases, which are anticipated to inject significant volatility into the trading environment. The key events include the release of the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. Core CPI Data The Core CPI data, set to be released today, is a critical measure of inflation that excludes food and energy prices. This indicator is closely watched by traders and investors as it provides insights into underlying inflationary pressures within the US economy. Stronger-than-expected CPI figures could reinforce expectations of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially supporting the US Dollar and influencing the USD/CAD pair. FOMC Decision In addition to the inflation data, the FOMC decision is another pivotal event for the day. The Federal Reserve's policy statement and subsequent press conference will offer guidance on the central bank's outlook and future monetary policy actions. Market participants will be keenly observing any hints regarding the timing and extent of interest rate adjustments. The FOMC's tone and projections will be crucial in determining the next directional move for the USD/CAD pair. Anticipated Volatility Given the significance of these economic events, traders are preparing for heightened volatility. The Core CPI and FOMC decision are expected to provide the necessary catalyst for a potential continuation of the reversal observed in the USD/CAD pair. Depending on the outcomes, we could see significant movements as traders react to the data and adjust their positions accordingly. in conclusion USD/CAD is currently consolidating its recent losses around 1.3750, following a technical reversal from the 1.3790 area. The pair's future direction will likely be influenced by today's Core CPI release and the FOMC decision. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility and potential continuation of the bearish trend, especially if the economic data aligns with the technical indicators pointing towards a reversal.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Presents New Reversal Opportunity at 157.390The USD/JPY pair, having reached the target of our previous analysis, is now presenting another trading opportunity around the 157.390 level. This level is showing potential for a new reversal. Market Dynamics Current Setup: The price is forming an inversion swing pattern (fractal), indicating a possible downward push. Technical Indicators: The swing pattern at 157.390 suggests a potential shift in momentum, making it an attractive level for a reversal trade. Trading Strategy Given the current setup and following the movements of other pairs against the USD, we are considering a short scalping position. Key considerations include: Inversion Swing Pattern: The fractal pattern forming at the 157.390 level signals a possible bearish reversal. Short Scalping Position: The technical setup suggests a potential push down, making it a suitable scenario for a short-term scalping trade. In conclusion the USD/JPY pair is showing a new reversal opportunity at 157.390, with the formation of an inversion swing pattern suggesting a potential downward move. Traders may consider a short scalping position based on this technical setup, looking to capitalize on the anticipated bearish impulse.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD Awaits Volatility Ahead of Key US Data and FOMC DecisionThe EUR/USD pair is currently oscillating within a narrow range of 1.0750 - 1.0722 during the Asian session on Wednesday, consolidating the losses accumulated over the past three days. This period of consolidation comes as traders adopt a cautious approach, awaiting significant economic events before committing to new directional bets. Market Sentiment and Upcoming Economic Data The subdued trading activity can be attributed to the anticipation surrounding the release of the US consumer inflation figures and the crucial Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. Both events are expected to have a substantial impact on market volatility and could provide fresh momentum for the EUR/USD pair. US Consumer Inflation Figures The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, particularly the Core CPI m/m, is a key indicator of inflation and is closely watched by market participants. The data release is expected to shed light on the current inflationary pressures within the US economy and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Strong inflation data could bolster expectations of a hawkish Fed, potentially supporting the US Dollar and putting further pressure on the EUR/USD pair. FOMC Decision In addition to the inflation data, the FOMC decision is another critical event on the horizon. The Federal Reserve's policy statement and subsequent press conference will provide insights into the central bank's economic outlook and future policy actions. Traders will be particularly interested in any indications regarding the timing of interest rate hikes or tapering of asset purchases. A more hawkish stance could lead to increased demand for the US Dollar, impacting the EUR/USD pair. Technical Perspective From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair is currently in a phase of consolidation. The price is hovering around the support level at 1.0722 and resistance at 1.0750. The market is awaiting the release of the Core CPI m/m and the FOMC decision to trigger the necessary volatility for a significant price movement. Given the current technical indicators and market sentiment, we are looking for a potential long impulse once the data is released. In conclusion the EUR/USD pair remains in a tight range as traders await key economic data and the FOMC decision. The outcome of these events will likely determine the next directional move for the pair. From a technical perspective, we anticipate a bullish impulse following the release of the US inflation figures and the FOMC announcement, provided the data supports such a move. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility and be ready to adjust their positions accordingly.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Loses Momentum as Market Awaits Key US Economic DataThe EUR/USD pair experienced a setback on Tuesday after reaching its highest level since late March, climbing above 1.0900 before closing the day in negative territory. The pair's near-term technical outlook suggests a lack of bullish momentum as attention shifts to upcoming macroeconomic data releases from the United States. Technical Analysis Overview In the lower timeframes, particularly on the H1 chart, EUR/USD shows a harmonic movement within an uptrend, characterized by swing highs and lower highs. Pullbacks have been consistently supported at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating a potentially strong base for a new bullish impulse. This technical setup suggests that a positive reaction to upcoming economic news could trigger a fresh upward movement. Key Economic Data Releases The focus is now on two critical economic indicators from the US: the ADP Employment Change and the ISM Services PMI for May. These releases are expected to provide significant insights into the state of the US economy and influence the EUR/USD pair's trajectory. 1. ADP Employment Change: Market expectations are for a rise of 173,000 in private sector employment for May. This report is an important gauge of the labor market's health and can affect market perceptions of the Federal Reserve's future policy moves. 2. ISM Services PMI: The ISM Services PMI is projected to recover to a reading above 50, indicating expansion, with expectations set at 50.5 for May, up from April's 49.4. A reading above 50 suggests growth in the services sector, which is crucial for overall economic performance. Potential Market Reactions The EUR/USD pair's movements will be significantly influenced by these data releases. Stronger-than-expected figures could bolster the US Dollar, exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, if the data disappoints, it could weaken the USD, providing a potential boost to the EUR/USD pair. Conclusion Currently, the EUR/USD pair displays a lack of sustained bullish momentum, but the upcoming US economic data could serve as a catalyst for change. Traders should pay close attention to the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI releases, as they will offer crucial insights into the health of the US economy and guide expectations for future monetary policy. The technical outlook on the lower timeframes indicates a potential for a bullish impulse, provided that the economic data supports such a move. The EUR/USD pair remains at a pivotal point, with the direction likely to be shaped by the forthcoming macroeconomic indicators.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD:Potential Market Movements Ahead of Key US Economic DataOn Monday, EUR/USD reached its highest level since late March, surpassing 1.0915. However, after making slight gains during the Asian session on Tuesday, the pair lost momentum and fell below this level. Market participants are now focused on the April JOLTS Job Openings data from the US, set to be released later today. US Economic Indicators On Monday, data from the US revealed that the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7 in May from 49.2 in April, indicating that business activity in the manufacturing sector continued to contract at an accelerating rate. Furthermore, the Prices Paid Index, which measures inflation, decreased to 57 from 60.9. Following the release of the PMI report, the US Dollar (USD) experienced significant selling pressure, aiding the EUR/USD in pushing higher. Federal Reserve Rate Expectations The probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining its policy rate unchanged in September dropped to 40% from nearly 50% before the PMI data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This shift in expectations has influenced the market sentiment towards the USD. Upcoming JOLTS Job Openings Data Today's release of the US JOLTS Job Openings data will be crucial. If the data falls below expectations, it could trigger another upward move in EUR/USD. Currently, the price is finding support levels, while the optimistic forecast for JOLTS Job Openings suggests potential strength for the USD. Strategic Trade Setup In anticipation of potential market reactions, we have placed two Buy Limit orders to capitalize on possible pullback areas for the EUR. These orders are set to engage if the price dips, positioning us to benefit from a subsequent upward movement. In summary, the EUR/USD pair's movements will be significantly influenced by today's JOLTS Job Openings data. Traders should watch for deviations from forecasts, as this will likely impact both the EUR and USD.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/JPY Faces Downward Pressure Despite Market 'Yenterventions'On Wednesday, GBP/JPY experienced a slight decline, easing to 200.30 but remaining close to multi-decade highs near 200.75. The pair has drifted into bullish territory as markets seem to dismiss potential "Yenterventions" by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which have yet to be confirmed. Despite speculation about direct intervention in global foreign exchange markets, the Yen continues to weaken. The primary driver behind the Yen's ongoing decline is the substantial interest rate differential between the Yen and other major global currencies. This wide gap in interest rates has kept JPY flows on the short side, as investors seek higher yields elsewhere. Even with repeated warnings from BoJ policymakers, the market continues to sell the Yen, demonstrating limited impact from these interventions. Furthermore, the BoJ's stance and actions have been under scrutiny, as their commitment to maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy contrasts sharply with the tightening cycles observed in other major economies. This divergence in monetary policies exacerbates the Yen's depreciation, as higher interest rates elsewhere attract capital flows away from Japan. From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY shows signs of divergence on the higher time frame charts. This divergence indicates a potential bearish setup, suggesting that the pair might be due for a correction after its recent highs. Technical analysts often use such divergences as early indicators of potential reversals in trend, as they reflect underlying market conditions that may not be immediately apparent in the price action alone. In addition to the technical signals, the broader market sentiment and macroeconomic factors should be considered. The ongoing uncertainty regarding the BoJ's actual interventions and the general risk sentiment in global markets could influence GBP/JPY movements. As such, while the pair currently remains in bullish territory, traders should stay vigilant for signs of a potential reversal, particularly given the mixed signals from both fundamental and technical perspectives. In summary, GBP/JPY has shown resilience near multi-decade highs despite the BoJ's warnings and potential interventions. However, the significant interest rate differential and technical indicators of divergence suggest a possible bearish setup. Investors and traders should closely monitor both the BoJ's actions and broader market trends to navigate this complex trading environment effectively.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
XAUUSD: Fed Rate Cut Prospects Cushion Market DownturnDuring the European session on Tuesday, gold is trading in negative territory, erasing some of the recovery gains made the previous day. However, the downside appears to be limited due to rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates later this year. These expectations have been strengthened by disappointing US macroeconomic data released on Monday, leading to speculation that the Fed may adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. This anticipation has caused the US Dollar (USD) to fall to its lowest level in nearly two months, providing ongoing support for gold, a non-yielding asset. A weaker USD makes gold more affordable for holders of other currencies, thus enhancing its attractiveness. From a technical analysis standpoint, gold remains within a buying opportunity zone. This perspective follows a retest of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, coupled with a divergence, suggesting the potential for an upward trend. The 50% Fibonacci level is often viewed as a significant support area, and the observed divergence implies that selling pressure might be decreasing, making it a strategic moment to consider a long position. In essence, despite gold's current lower trading position, the broader macroeconomic environment and technical indicators point towards a positive outlook for a long position. The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Fed and the resulting weakness in the US Dollar are likely to act as supportive factors for gold, bolstering its price in the near future.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Loses Ground Despite Strong Economic Data but..The Japanese Yen continued to weaken on Thursday, even as economic data showed a positive trend. The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.2% year-over-year in May, up from April's 1.8%, which marked a 26-month low. In addition, Japan’s Retail Sales (YoY) grew 2.4% in April, accelerating from a downwardly revised 1.1% rise in March and surpassing market forecasts of 1.9% growth. This marks the 26th consecutive month of expansion, indicating a sustained period of healthy consumption in Japan. Monetary Policy Implications The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its deeply entrenched monetary policy stance. Should nationwide inflation in Japan decline, it would prevent the central bank from raising interest rates. The significant rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to exert pressure on the Japanese Yen, underpinning the USD/JPY pair. US Dollar Rebound The US Dollar (USD) rebounded ahead of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is due to be released today. However, the decline in US Treasury yields could limit the advance of the US Dollar. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, we are anticipating a rebound for the Yen, particularly if the US Core PCE Price Index shows a negative impact. The footprint analysis reveals several areas of demand on the daily timeframe chart, where the value could find support for a possible reversal. Investors should monitor the upcoming Core PCE data closely, as it will likely influence the near-term direction of both the USD and JPY.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Identifying Bearish OpportunitiesThe EUR/JPY presents a compelling price action scenario with notable opportunities. Recently, the pair encountered strong absorption at the 171.500 level, evidenced by a significant spike indicating substantial seller presence in this price area. This absorption led to a pronounced bearish impulse driving the price down to the 164.000 level. Since then, the price has been on a recovery trajectory, creating an area of imbalance that the market may seek to revisit for potential retests of previous price levels. In addition to these observations, technical analysis reveals a divergence on the RSI, which suggests a potential double top formation. This divergence indicates weakening bullish momentum, strengthening the case for a bearish outlook. Given these conditions, we have positioned our stop loss at 171.000 to protect against any attempts by the price to retest higher absorption levels above the current range. This strategic setup highlights a promising bearish opportunity, supported by the significant absorption at the 171.500 level, the initial bearish impulse around 164.000, and the divergence observed on the RSI. Traders should closely monitor these technical indicators and price levels to capitalize on potential market movements. This analysis underscores the importance of vigilance in managing positions and adjusting strategies as the market evolves.
Short
by FOREXN1
6
GOLD Surges Following Lower-than-Expected US Core PCE DataGold experienced a significant boost on Friday after the release of marginally lower-than-expected US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The core PCE for April was reported at 0.2% month-over-month, below the forecasted 0.3%. This data initially propelled gold to a peak of $2,359, but the gains were short-lived as prices quickly corrected. Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis The price has now returned to our area of attention, demonstrating a bullish divergence on the Stochastic RSI indicator as the new week begins, suggesting a bullish bias. Additionally, the daily footprint chart reveals a spike of rejection from a passive order block by buyers, reinforcing the potential for a bullish movement. Impact of Inflation Data on Fed Expectations The slightly lower inflation data has shifted market expectations regarding the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 55% from approximately 50% previously. This development is generally positive for gold, as it tends to appreciate when interest rates fall due to its non-yielding nature. Investor Sentiment Despite this, gold investors remain cautious given the persistent high inflation and the Fed's uncertain policy direction. The ongoing ambiguity surrounding the Fed's future actions continues to influence market sentiment. Outlook We anticipate a potential appreciation in gold value today, supported by the recent data and technical indicators. Investors should keep an eye on further developments in inflation data and Fed communications to gauge the longer-term trajectory for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
AUD/USD: Implications of JOLTS Job Openings DataThe Australian Dollar experienced a marginal decline amidst concerns surrounding an unexpected current account deficit totaling A$4.9 billion in the first quarter. Concurrently, the growth forecast for Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been revised downward to 1.2% year-over-year, a decrease from the previous rate of 1.5%. Conversely, the US Dollar maintained stability, supported by an upward correction in US Treasury yields, highlighting a contrasting trend. In terms of technical analysis, recent market movements nearly reached our predefined profit-taking level before retracing to a region of interest. We are now poised to consider long positions, particularly in light of the forthcoming release of US JOLTS Job Openings data later today, which could potentially fall short of optimistic expectations. Key market drivers include the unexpected Australian Current Account Deficit, indicative of underlying economic challenges, and the anticipated slowdown in GDP growth, both of which could exert further pressure on the Australian Dollar. Conversely, the USD remains fortified by the resilience of US Treasury Yields. The impending release of the JOLTS Job Openings Data assumes critical importance, with the potential to significantly influence the trajectory of the AUD against the USD. Should the data fail to meet optimistic forecasts, we stand prepared to capitalize on renewed AUD strength, leveraging any disparity in US economic indicators.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD: Potential Rebound from Consolidation ZoneThe EUR/USD pair remains in a sideways movement following the profit realized from our previous analysis. The price reversed during the latter part of Friday after US data revealed that inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, increased by 2.7% year-over-year in April, consistent with March's figures and market expectations. Today, the price is approaching the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels within this consolidation zone, indicating a possible rebound following the release of the US PMI data later today. Current forecasts suggest a bearish sentiment favoring the US Dollar. Key Economic Indicators Later today, the US economic docket will feature the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for May. Investors anticipate an improvement in the reading to 49.8 from April's 49.2. A reading above 50 would indicate a return to expansion territory for business activity, potentially supporting the USD in the latter half of the day. Conversely, if the data meets or falls below expectations, a price rebound from the indicated area is likely. Technical Analysis: Footprint Chart Insights The footprint chart shows a block of buy orders that could be triggered in correlation with limit orders, supporting a potential price rebound. This aligns with the anticipated market reaction to today's PMI data, making this a critical area to watch for possible bullish movement. In summary, keep an eye on the US PMI data release today, as it will play a pivotal role in determining the EUR/USD movement. The technical setup and current forecasts suggest a potential rebound from the consolidation zone, depending on the PMI results.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
USD/CAD: Implications of US Treasury Auction ResultsOn Wednesday, the Canadian Dollar experienced a weakening trend across various currency pairs, as the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar gained traction in the broader market. This decline in the Canadian Dollar's value was notably influenced by subdued bid-to-cover ratios observed in a US Treasury auction held on Tuesday, which contributed to dampened market sentiment as the week progressed, leading to a decrease in risk appetite among investors. From a technical standpoint, the price has initiated a reversal from a previous supply area, signaling a potential bearish continuation trajectory below demand regions. This technical analysis suggests a shift in market dynamics favoring downward movement in the Canadian Dollar's value. The economic calendar for Canada remained relatively quiet on Wednesday, with attention now turning to Thursday's release of the Canadian Current Account data. Market expectations anticipate a decline to -5.5 billion, following a climb to a six-month high of -1.62 billion in the previous quarter. Subsequently, on Friday, investors will await the release of Canadian Q1 Gross Domestic Product figures, which are projected to stabilize at 0.0% month-on-month, compared to the previous reading of 0.2%. These upcoming data releases are likely to further influence trading sentiment surrounding the Canadian Dollar.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
AUD/USD Rises Amid Positive Economic Indicators and PMI releaseThe Australian Dollar started the Monday session on a strong note, accelerating ahead of the ISM Manufacturing PMI release. During the early hours of the Asian session, the AUD received support as Australia's minimum wage increased by 3.75%, aligning with market estimates that ranged from 3.5% to 4.0%. Key Factors Driving the AUD/USD Pair Wage Increase: The significant 3.75% increase in the minimum wage in Australia provided a boost to the Australian Dollar, reflecting confidence in the domestic economy. US Inflation Data: The AUD/USD pair also strengthened following the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data. As the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE data for April indicated that price pressures were easing, which had a positive impact on the AUD. Australia's Inflation Rate: Australia's monthly inflation rate accelerated to 3.6%, increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might consider raising interest rates again. This further supported the AUD's upward momentum. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, we can observe a divergence in the price action with the value above the 200 EMA. This suggests a potential bullish setup. Given these technical and fundamental factors, we are looking for a long position on the AUD/USD pair. Conclusion The Australian Dollar's strength is underpinned by positive domestic economic indicators and easing US inflation pressures. With the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI release, investors will be closely watching for further cues. Based on the current technical setup and supportive fundamentals, a long position on the AUD/USD pair appears favorable.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GBP/CAD Accumulation Area Suggests Imminent Bearish ShiftThe GBP/CAD pair recently reached a market high on September 23, 2023. Presently, the price is situated in an accumulation area, suggesting the potential for a bearish reversal. Technical analysis indicates that the pair may retrace to the 1.7300 level and potentially beyond. Given the current market conditions, we have identified signs that support a possible downward movement. The accumulation area, characterized by price consolidation, often precedes a significant price movement. In this case, the consolidation at the top suggests that the market is preparing for a reversal. From a technical perspective, various indicators, including momentum oscillators and trend analysis, support the hypothesis of a bearish reversal. Specifically, divergence observed in higher timeframes points to weakening bullish momentum, increasing the likelihood of a downward correction. Considering these factors, we are looking for a short setup in this region. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels and be prepared for potential market shifts that align with this bearish outlook. Our target for the reversal is initially set at the 1.7300 level, with the possibility of further declines if the bearish trend gains strength. In conclusion, the GBP/CAD pair's recent high and current accumulation phase present a compelling case for a bearish reversal. By carefully observing market signals and technical indicators, traders can position themselves to capitalize on this anticipated market movement.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Finds Support at 1.08150, Investors Await Key Inflation EUR/USD rebounded from the 1.08150 demand area and closed in positive territory on Thursday. The pair fluctuates above 1.0830 during the European session as investors remain cautious ahead of key inflation data. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the annualized first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth down to 1.3% from the initial estimate of 1.6%. Consequently, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield corrected lower, losing more than 1% on Thursday, which undermined the US Dollar (USD) and prevented it from maintaining its strength. From a technical perspective, we are anticipating a potential bullish impulse after the price has captured some liquidity, as indicated in the footprint chart below. We are looking for a long setup.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Gold Price Analysis: Factors and Forecast 🟡Gold Shows Signs of Recovery Despite Stronger USD Gold prices have shown some recovery on Friday, despite the strength of the US Dollar (USD). However, the upside potential for the yellow metal might be constrained by diminishing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. Nonetheless, safe-haven flows due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could provide support to gold prices. Key Factors Influencing Gold Prices Federal Reserve's Influence: Gold investors will closely monitor comments from Federal Reserve officials, with Fed's Waller set to speak on Friday. Hawkish remarks from Fed policymakers could further weigh on gold prices. It is important to note that higher interest rates generally exert downward pressure on gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. US Economic Data: Investors will also look to upcoming US economic indicators, including the Durable Goods Orders and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. These data points can provide further insights into the economic outlook and influence gold price movements. Technical Analysis: Footprint and RSI Insights A footprint analysis indicates a potential recovery in gold value as the price resides in a discount area, accompanied by divergence on the H4 RSI. This divergence suggests that selling pressure might be waning, increasing the likelihood of a price rebound. Additionally, the imbalance observed in the footprint analysis supports the expectation of a recovery in gold prices. Outlook While the strong USD and hawkish Fed stance may limit gold's upside, geopolitical tensions and technical indicators suggest potential support for a price rebound. Investors should watch Fed commentary and economic data releases closely, as these will provide further direction for gold prices. Daily Footprint Analysis:
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
3