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EUR/USD Hits Weekly High Amid USD Weakness and ECB UncertaintyEUR/USD reached a new weekly high of 1.0880 during Tuesday’s European session. The major currency pair's strength can be attributed to a softening US Dollar (USD) and increasing uncertainty surrounding the European Central Bank's (ECB) future rate cut decisions following the June meeting. The robust economic outlook for the United States and hawkish guidance from policymakers on interest rates have led traders to adjust their rate expectations. Market speculation on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts will be particularly influenced by the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data for April, scheduled for release on Friday. The core PCE inflation data, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is anticipated to have remained steady on both a monthly and annual basis. This data will be crucial in shaping market expectations for the Fed's monetary policy trajectory. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD’s recent price action aligns with our previous forecasts. The currency pair opened Tuesday with a bearish candle at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous swing high. This technical indicator suggests that the pair may be poised for a bearish reversal, potentially leading to a price retracement. The market is also closely watching for signals from ECB policymakers regarding the future path of interest rates. The uncertainty over how aggressively the ECB will reduce key borrowing rates after the June meeting adds an additional layer of complexity to the EUR/USD outlook. ECB officials have recently expressed mixed views on the timing and scale of future rate cuts, which has contributed to the pair's volatility. Furthermore, traders will be monitoring other significant economic indicators this week. In addition to the core PCE data from the US, the market will pay attention to any comments from Federal Reserve officials, as their statements could provide further insights into the Fed's policy stance. The US economic data and Fed communications will be key drivers of USD movement, impacting EUR/USD dynamics. Overall, while EUR/USD has shown strength recently, driven by a weaker USD and ECB-related uncertainties, the technical outlook suggests caution. The bearish candle at the 78.6% Fibonacci level signals the potential for a bearish reversal. Market participants will need to closely watch upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications to gauge the likely direction of EUR/USD in the near term.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Analysis: ECB Stance and Market ExpectationsThe EUR/USD pair has shown strength as European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers refrain from committing to extending the rate-cut cycle beyond the June meeting. This cautious stance suggests that ECB officials are wary of aggressive policy easing, which could reignite inflationary pressures. Market Expectations Adjust In light of recent economic indicators signaling persistent price pressures, such as the Negotiated Wage Rates for the first quarter and the preliminary HCOB Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for May, traders' expectations have shifted. Initially anticipating three rate cuts this year, market participants are now expecting only two. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is nearing the 61.8% retracement level from the previous swing high after a pullback around the 1.0800 level. There are several resistances above, with the first significant resistance at the 1.0860 area, and a more crucial resistance at the 1.0900 level. Our outlook suggests a potential bearish retracement towards the 1.0750 level.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
AUD/USD:Traders Eye Australian Retail Sales and CPI DataThe AUD/USD pair saw upward movement on Monday, benefiting from the subdued activity in the US markets due to the Memorial Day holiday, which left the Greenback weaker. This rise extends Friday’s recovery into a second consecutive day, providing some momentum for the Aussie dollar. Economic Indicators to Watch Australian Retail Sales and CPI Data: Tuesday: Traders are eyeing the Australian Retail Sales data for April, expected to show a modest recovery with a 0.2% increase following a 0.4% decline in the previous month. Wednesday: The focus will shift to Australia's Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, anticipated to grow at 3.4% year-over-year, slightly down from March's annualized 3.5%. US PCE Inflation Data: Later in the week, the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data will be closely watched, as it could provide further direction for the USD and consequently impact the AUD/USD pair. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD is approaching a critical resistance area: The price is nearing the 61.8% retracement level from the recent daily swing high. Additionally, it is within the 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone from a more localized swing. This convergence area is a potential point of resistance, where sellers might step in, looking for a bearish retracement. The market inefficiency noted earlier still remains unclosed, suggesting a potential downward correction. Trading Outlook Given the current economic outlook and technical indicators, we anticipate a bearish retracement in the AUD/USD pair: Bearish Setup: The 61.8% to 78.6% Fibonacci retracement zone could serve as an ideal entry point for sellers. Target: The objective would be to capitalize on the market's inefficiencies and the expected retracement back towards lower levels. In summary, while the AUD/USD pair has found some upward momentum, economic data releases and technical resistance levels suggest that a bearish retracement may be on the horizon. Traders should watch for key data points and technical signals to confirm this potential move.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Faces Pressure Amid USD Strength and Hawkish Fed CommentDuring Wednesday's London session, EUR/USD extended its losses, approaching 1.08370. The pair faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground amidst rising risk aversion sentiment. This shift in market sentiment is possibly triggered by hawkish remarks from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who suggested that further rate hikes remain a possibility. Kashkari's comments highlighted uncertainties about the disinflationary process, predicting only two rate cuts, which contributed to the USD's strength. From a technical perspective, as observed in previous analyses, the price rebounded from the 78.6% Fibonacci level. This rebound occurred in confluence with a well-identified supply zone, confirming our earlier forecasts. The price action suggests the potential formation of a double top pattern in this area, indicating a significant resistance level. The initial bearish impulse from this region supports the likelihood of further downside movement. The recent price behavior and technical indicators suggest that EUR/USD may continue its downward trajectory. The formation of the double top pattern, characterized by the two peaks at the supply zone, often signals a trend reversal. Traders should monitor this area closely, as a confirmed double top could lead to a more pronounced bearish move. In addition to the technical factors, the broader macroeconomic environment continues to influence EUR/USD dynamics. The strengthening USD, driven by hawkish Fed rhetoric and ongoing economic uncertainties, poses additional challenges for the Euro. Market participants will likely remain cautious, closely watching upcoming economic data releases and central bank communications for further guidance. Overall, the combination of technical and fundamental factors suggests a cautious outlook for EUR/USD. The current price action, marked by the rebound from the 78.6% Fibonacci level and potential double top formation, aligns with our bearish forecast. Traders should consider these insights when making their trading decisions, remaining vigilant for any shifts in market sentiment or key economic indicators that could impact the pair's direction.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD: Anticipating Downside Movement Amid Market ImbalanceFollowing our previous analysis of the EUR/USD pair, the price has approached the 1.0900 round level, which is significant as it is forming a potential double top pattern. This movement includes a retest of the previous high reached last Wednesday. Currently, there are no major news events impacting the market, which indicates that the price may experience a bearish outcome as it seeks to cover the imbalance observed in the previous week. To support this analysis, I have included a Footprint analysis on a daily timeframe of the Euro futures. This detailed analysis shows that the price has started to exhibit a negative delta, and the cumulative delta has turned red, signaling a shift in market sentiment. Additionally, the volume profile analysis clearly identifies areas with inefficiencies, suggesting that there is an underlying weakness in the recent upward movement. Given these technical indicators, we are expecting a bearish reversal in the near term. The absence of significant news today aligns with this outlook, as the market may be poised to correct the previous week's imbalance without external influences driving volatility. This confluence of factors strengthens our confidence in anticipating a downward movement for the EUR/USD pair. In summary, the technical evidence from the Footprint analysis and volume profile, combined with the lack of impactful news events, points to a likely bearish reversal for the EUR/USD. We recommend closely monitoring these developments and adjusting trading strategies accordingly to capitalize on the anticipated market correction.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
GOLD's Price Correction: Anticipating a Bullish RetracementGold experienced a strong bearish impulse yesterday, intensifying the selling pressure following the release of the FOMC minutes. This downward movement persisted well beyond the initial reaction to the news. Today, the price has reached a significant demand area, presenting a potential buying opportunity at a discounted price. The current price level is below the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the previous swing low and falls within the 78.6% to 88.6% discount ratio from the minor swing low. This technical setup indicates a favorable condition for a potential retracement, where buyers might step in to take advantage of the lower prices. The demand area, combined with the Fibonacci retracement levels, suggests that the current price could be a strategic entry point for a bullish reversal. Given these factors, we are looking for the price to retrace and form a consecutive bullish impulse. This anticipated move could align with the market's tendency to correct after significant bearish movements, especially when key support and demand levels are met. As such, we are positioning ourselves for a potential upward move in the price of gold, capitalizing on the technical signals and the market dynamics observed.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
3
GOLD: Tuesday’s Retracement,Market Remains OptimisticGold experienced a decline following the retracement observed on Tuesday but opened Wednesday on a positive note. Today, members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) issued warnings that the US central bank requires much more compelling evidence that inflation is easing before it can begin cutting interest rates. This caution from the Fed underscores the likelihood that interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period, which could potentially boost the Greenback and exert downward pressure on USD-denominated gold. Despite this, the downside for gold may be mitigated by several factors. Renewed trade tensions between the US and China, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and robust demand from central banks and Asian buyers are likely to provide substantial support for the yellow metal. These elements could limit the extent of any decline, keeping gold relatively buoyant despite the adverse impact of a stronger US dollar. Later on Wednesday, gold traders will be closely monitoring the release of the FOMC minutes and a speech by Fed member Goolsbee. These events are expected to offer further insights into the Fed's economic outlook and monetary policy stance, which could influence gold prices. From a technical analysis perspective, the price of gold continues to reside in a zone that suggests a potential bullish impulse. This follows a false breakdown, which we have identified as a Wyckoff spring pattern—a classic signal in technical analysis indicating a possible upward reversal. The price has retested the local 50% retracement area, and from our point of view, this sets the stage for a possible upward movement towards the upper boundary of the current accumulation area. This technical setup, combined with the fundamental factors at play, indicates that gold may have room to grow despite current market pressures.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/JPY: A Closer Look at Recent Market DevelopmentsThe GBP/JPY Futures have demonstrated seven consecutive days of growth, characterized by a consistent retesting of previous market inefficiencies and increasing volumes. Each day, the price has closed above the volume range of every candle, while also maintaining its position above the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP). Additionally, the Delta has consistently closed positively at the end of each daily session. Tick volumes have remained below the 20-day Moving Average, indicating a sustained rally trajectory towards the 199.895 area to address buyer and seller inefficiencies. Notably, the current candle exhibits an imbalance between buyers and sellers, reflected in a negative delta. However, it's important to note that this data may fluctuate following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) today, introducing additional volatility to the pair. British Pound / Japanese Yen Futures
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GOLD Market Outlook: Accumulation Phase and Bullish PotentialGold prices extended their gains on Monday, trading just below the all-time high of $2,450 reached during the Asian session. This movement is driven by growing expectations that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may ease monetary policy in 2024. After hitting the peak at $2,450, the price experienced a retracement to the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with a high-value area and the 20-period VWAP moving average. This confluence of technical factors suggests that the price may be entering an accumulation phase, indicating the potential for a new swing high driven by a bullish impulse. If the market transitions to a distribution phase, the price is likely to revert below the 78.6% Fibonacci level, which has been identified as our stop loss. This level provides a crucial support point that, if breached, could signal a significant shift in market sentiment. This week, the U.S. economic docket will be heavily influenced by statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, leading up to the release of the latest Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. These minutes will offer insights into the Fed's current stance on monetary policy and potential future actions. Additionally, on Thursday, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report is expected to provide further evidence of a cooling labor market. This report, coupled with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, will be closely watched for indications of broader economic trends. Market participants should pay close attention to these developments, as they will likely influence gold prices and overall market sentiment. The interplay between technical indicators and fundamental economic data will be key in determining the next major move in gold prices. As always, traders are advised to stay informed and adjust their strategies accordingly in response to evolving market conditions. In summary, gold prices are positioned just below their historical peak, with technical indicators suggesting potential for further gains. However, the upcoming economic data and Fed communications will play a critical role in shaping market dynamics in the near term. Maintaining a close watch on these factors will be essential for navigating potential market shifts and making informed trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD Futures: H4 Footprint Insights and Daily Chart DynamicsGold Futures Footprint Analysis on the H4 Timeframe reveals an intriguing market dynamic. Monday's opening saw a bearish candle, characterized by a spike that retraced to the previous Point of Control (POC) volume of the preceding candle. This retracement occurred concurrently with a block of previous bullish orders (513+535), suggesting a potential area of resistance. Despite the presence of sellers, there appears to be a notable imbalance favoring buyers, indicating underlying support for a price increase. Although the Delta reflects a bearish sentiment, the sellers' efforts do not seem to exert a significant downward pressure on price movement. This phenomenon aligns with a classic interpretation of price action in CFD trading, commonly referred to as a "retest." Zooming out to the daily chart, we observe that buyer volume slightly surpasses that of sellers, accompanied by a lower Delta compared to the previous candle. This discrepancy implies that a relatively small effort from buyers may yield significant results. Moreover, the POC on the daily chart currently resides on the upper side of the candle, indicating that the majority of transactions or market battles are occurring at higher price levels. This observation further strengthens the case for a bullish continuation. In summary, the Footprint Analysis highlights a nuanced interplay between buyers and sellers in the Gold Futures market. Despite initial bearish signals, the presence of buyer imbalance and strategic positioning on the daily chart suggest a potential bullish momentum continuation. Traders may consider these insights when formulating their trading strategies. Daily Footprint Analysis
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Retreats: Understanding the Factors at PlayGBP/USD underwent a technical correction, retracing to approximately 61.8% from the previous swing high before concluding Thursday's session in negative territory. The pair has continued its downward trend early into Friday. Comments made by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on Thursday contributed to a rebound in US Treasury bond yields and bolstered the US Dollar (USD). Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic acknowledged progress in inflation for April but emphasized that the Fed had not yet initiated policy easing. Similarly, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester remarked on the adequacy of current monetary policy, indicating a need to review additional data. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin echoed these sentiments, stating on CNBC that recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data did not align with the Fed's objectives for inflation. Meanwhile, the US Department of Labor reported 222,000 weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 11, down from 232,000 the previous week. From a technical standpoint, there is potential for a bearish correction in the GBP/USD price, targeting the lower end of the chart to address inefficiencies stemming from the preceding bullish rally. This area has been highlighted in the Footprint chart for reference. Footprint chart
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Price Action Analysis: Identifying Trends and OpportunitIn Wednesday’s New York session, the EUR/USD pair surged to a monthly high, nearing 1.0870. This rise in the major currency pair was fueled by developments such as the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) easing in line with estimates, and the monthly Retail Sales figures remaining stagnant for April. The anticipated decrease in price pressures within the US economy, coupled with lackluster Retail Sales data, has created an unfavorable environment for the US Dollar and bond yields. Simultaneously, there are indications suggesting potential opportunities for the USD to capitalize on the EUR rally, primarily evident in inefficiencies within the price footprint. These inefficiencies could potentially exert downward pressure on the EUR in the short term. Furthermore, from a technical perspective, the EUR has reached a premium selling area, indicating the possibility of a double local top formation. This is complemented by divergence in the RSI and an overbought condition observed in both the RSI and Stochastic indicators. These technical signals suggest a potential reversal in the EUR's upward trend, presenting trading opportunities for market participants. Footprint Trigger H1
Short
by FOREXN1
2
✅ GBP/USD Movement: Factors Affecting Price ActionFollowing a notable rebound at the daily 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, the GBP/USD appears poised for a potential bullish impulse continuation, particularly from the level around 1.23500. The recent downturn in the US Dollar's value, which concluded the week on a significant decline, correlates with a broader trend of decreasing US yields across various timeframes. This movement aligns with investors' current preference for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Looking ahead, upcoming economic indicators include the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and Consumer Credit Change on May 7, followed by the release of the weekly MBA’s Mortgage Applications and Wholesale Inventories on May 8, with Initial Jobless Claims expected on May 9. The week concludes with the publication of preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and the Monthly Budget Statement. Despite a continuation of the GBP/USD's upward momentum observed in the preceding week, the breach of the 1.2600 resistance level toward the end of the week failed to sustain momentum. On May 7, market watchers anticipate the release of the BRC Retail Sales Monitor ahead of the S&P Global Construction PMI. The Bank of England's meeting on May 9 is a notable event, alongside the expected release of GDP figures, Trade Balance data, Industrial and Manufacturing Production statistics, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker toward the end of the week. In summary, market sentiment leans towards a bullish continuation in the GBP/USD, with key economic indicators and central bank decisions shaping the trajectory of the currency pair in the coming days.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD: H4 Double Top Patterns and Impact of Economic DataOn Wednesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) saw an upward trajectory following the release of notable economic data. Specifically, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data for April came in lower than economists' expectations. This unexpected downturn in economic indicators has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may take measures to cut interest rates sooner than previously anticipated. Lower interest rates, or even the expectation of their reduction, typically have a positive effect on gold prices. This is because lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost associated with holding gold, which is a non-yielding asset. Investors are less inclined to hold assets that generate little to no return when interest rates are high, but as interest rates decline, the attractiveness of gold as an investment option increases. In addition to the macroeconomic factors influencing gold prices, technical analysis of the XAU/USD chart reveals the formation of a H4 Double Top pattern. This pattern suggests a potential reversal in the upward trend of gold prices. Notably, within the footprint of the previous H4 chart, there is an observable imbalance of sellers, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bearishness. Further supporting the bearish outlook is the presence of red Deltas, which signify selling pressure within the market. This convergence of technical indicators suggests the possibility of a short bearish setup for gold prices in the near term. In summary, while the release of disappointing economic data may have initially spurred a bullish trend in gold prices, the presence of technical patterns and indicators points towards a potential reversal in the upward trajectory. Investors should carefully monitor both macroeconomic developments and technical signals to make informed decisions regarding gold investments. Footprint Chart
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
2
USD/CHF Pair's Descent: Factors Behind the Extended DowntrendDuring the early trading hours of Friday's European session, the USD/CHF pair sustained its downward trajectory for the third consecutive day, with its value depreciating to 0.9080. This extended decline comes on the heels of a recent pullback from a notable seven-month peak, observed around the formidable resistance zone positioned at 0.9200. The retreat in value can be predominantly attributed to the prevailing weakness exhibited by the US Dollar (USD) across various fronts in the market landscape. Investor sentiment remains closely tethered to the impending release of the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for April, which is anticipated to shed light on the addition of approximately 243,000 jobs to the US economy. The outcome of this report is poised to significantly influence market dynamics and shape trading strategies in the near term. Furthermore, there exists a palpable sense of anticipation within the trading community regarding potential seasonal short positions, which are being contemplated in light of insights gleaned from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report. This additional layer of analysis underscores the intricate interplay of various factors contributing to the ongoing fluctuations within the USD/CHF currency pair.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Trends: The Role of Economic Data and Policy SignalsFollowing the USD/JPY's ascent to 160.200, the currency pair underwent a reversal, marked by a retracement to the 50% Fibonacci level and subsequent bearish momentum, driving prices down to approximately 151.885. In Japan, Masato Kanda, a prominent figure in currency diplomacy, hinted at potential measures to address market volatility, signaling possible interventions. Recent speculation regarding Japanese government intervention led to a strengthening of the Japanese Yen (JPY), as evidenced by reports from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) suggesting significant allocations of funds, approximately ¥6.0 trillion on April 29 and ¥3.66 trillion on May 1, to support the JPY. In light of these fundamental developments, we are adopting a bearish outlook on the USD/JPY, anticipating further downward pressure. Our strategy involves initiating a short position with the placement of two sell limits, aligning with our bearish market sentiment.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
GOLD Price Stability Amid Rising Global TensionsOn Tuesday, the price of gold stabilized as mounting geopolitical tensions spurred demand for the safe-haven asset. Escalating protests against Israel’s presence in Gaza, Russia’s initiation of a new conflict in Ukraine, and concerns regarding potential disruptions in global trade have heightened the perception of geopolitical risk. The decision by BRICS nations to reduce reliance on the US Dollar for international trade transactions has bolstered interest in gold as an alternative. Consequently, there has been a notable increase in non-Western central banks' demand for gold, accompanied by a corresponding decrease in US Dollar reserves. Gold is being considered as a viable substitute for the US Dollar as a secure store of value in international trade agreements involving nations with volatile domestic currencies, as per insights from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based advisory service. From a technical standpoint, analysis of the H4 timeframe reveals a divergence in the cumulative delta, with the preceding candle exhibiting a negative cumulative delta while the current candle shows a positive delta. The previous candle effectively absorbed all inefficiency orders from sellers, forming an absorption candle characterized by a long spike, while the current candle is endeavoring to elevate buyer volume. There is potential for the current candle to retest the previous candle's point of control (POC) to attract new buyers at a discounted rate. Our strategy revolves around a long setup with a target aimed at the previous fair value area.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by FOREXN1
2
Decoding the BoJ's Role: Impact on GBP/JPY ReversalThe GBP/JPY experienced a notable turnaround at the 200.500 level following reports indicating potential direct intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the foreign exchange (FX) markets. This intervention, suspected to have occurred twice within a two-day span earlier this week, aimed to bolster the beleaguered Japanese Yen (JPY). Disclosure reports from the BoJ revealed a significant overspending on uncategorized financing operations, amounting to approximately 9 trillion Yen. This substantial deviation from expected financial activities strongly suggests the likelihood of direct market intervention in support of the Yen. However, official statements confirming or denying such actions have yet to be issued. Our analysis anticipates a retesting of the aforementioned price zone, followed by a continuation of bearish momentum in the GBP/JPY.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
GBP/CAD Forecast: Historical Trends and Institutional Sentiment The Pound Sterling's recovery has encountered a standstill amidst robust speculation regarding early rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE). Concurrently, the GBP/CAD pair, after establishing a bottom within its channel around 1.68880, initiated a pronounced bullish surge, propelled by a convergence of technical and seasonal indicators. Technically, the price nears the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous swing high, compounded by the presence of the volume point of control. In light of these factors, we have established two limit orders within this zone. Furthermore, there exists the potential for price rejection at the dynamic trendline within the bearish channel, in addition to the VWAP 200 periods. Historically and statistically, the GBP/CAD tends to exhibit a bearish trend during this period of the year. The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report indicates a decline or negative sentiment among institutional orders, further suggesting a looming price drop.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
✅GOLD Prices Rebound Amidst Speculation on Interest Rate OutlookOn Monday, the price of gold experienced a rebound as market participants deliberated over the trajectory of interest rates in light of recent US employment indicators. According to Friday's data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report indicated that 175,000 individuals secured employment in April, falling below market expectations. Of particular note was the deceleration in wage inflation, with Average Hourly Earnings exhibiting a decline both on an annual and monthly basis compared to economists' projections. The current price of gold remains confined within a range-bound area or rectangle, with the preceding rebound observed around the $2288 mark potentially manifesting upon a retest of the upper boundary of this channel, with potential for further expansion. The underwhelming employment data suggests a potential for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to initiate interest rate cuts earlier than previously envisaged. This prospective scenario heightens the appeal of gold, as lower interest rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding precious metal. We anticipate a bullish continuation, adopting a scalping approach characterized by higher potential rewards but a lower win rate.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Outlook: Factors Influencing Near-Term Price ActionThe EUR/USD exhibited a modest bearish tone and closed in negative territory during Tuesday's trading session. Despite attempts to recover, the pair struggled to regain traction after reaching a peak of 1.0800 in recent days. Looking ahead, today's economic calendar appears relatively quiet, with no high-impact data releases scheduled. However, market participants will keep a close eye on any commentary from Federal Reserve officials, as their remarks could potentially sway the pair's direction later in the day. Moreover, it's worth considering the seasonal tendencies that have historically influenced the EUR/USD movement. Over the past years, there has been a consistent pattern of price decline for the pair until the end of the month. This seasonal effect could further weigh on the EUR/USD in the near term. Furthermore, insights from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report reveal a notable shift in positioning among hedge funds and money managers. There has been a noticeable increase in short positions, suggesting a prevailing sentiment favoring bearish continuation. In light of these observations, there is a growing inclination to implement a more aggressive stop-loss strategy to manage potential downside risks effectively.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
Nasdaq's Bearish Outlook: Tactical Approaches for TradersIn assessing the Nasdaq's current market conditions, there emerges a compelling narrative suggesting a potential bearish leg in its trajectory. This notion finds its roots in the recent retest of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, a critical technical threshold renowned for its significance in price action analysis. Concurrently, this retracement is complemented by the manifestation of divergence signals, indicative of a discordance between price action and momentum indicators, thus hinting at underlying weakness in the market's upward momentum. Moreover, the retest of a bearish order block further reinforces this notion, adding another layer of confirmation to the bearish outlook. Such order blocks are often perceived as zones of significant supply or demand, exerting influence on price movements when revisited. In this instance, the revisit of a bearish order block serves to validate the potential for a reversal in price direction. As we delve deeper into our analysis, the stochastic indicator emerges as an additional corroborating factor supporting the envisaged bearish scenario. Currently indicating an overbought condition, the stochastic oscillator suggests a potential exhaustion of buying momentum, paving the way for a reversal in favor of sellers. Furthermore, while the identification of a harmonic pattern formation adds another dimension to our analysis, its significance is viewed through the lens of secondary importance in comparison to the overarching confluence of indicators pointing towards a bearish bias. While harmonic patterns can offer valuable insights into potential price reversals, the primary weight is placed on the alignment of multiple technical factors, each lending credence to the bearish outlook. In essence, the confluence of these technical indications paints a comprehensive picture of the Nasdaq's current market sentiment, leaning decisively towards a bearish bias. As such, our strategy is poised to capitalize on potential downward movements, with careful consideration given to risk management and entry timing amidst evolving market dynamics.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by FOREXN1
1
Platinum: Examining Resistance Retests and Seasonal BehaviorThe recent movement in Platinum futures has seen a notable retest of the upper boundary of the range, coinciding with a resistance zone commonly referred to as "Supply." Our analytical approach begins at this critical juncture, where we factor in various elements, including the seasonal behavior observed in this precious metal over the past decade and a half. A meticulous examination of historical data reveals a consistent pattern wherein Platinum experiences a significant decline in value from May through July. This seasonal trend, observed over the course of the last 10 to 15 years, underscores the likelihood of a continued downturn in Platinum's value during this period. In light of this compelling historical precedent, we are inclined to anticipate a continuation of this seasonal pattern in the current market environment. Consequently, our focus is squarely on identifying and capitalizing on potential bearish opportunities. Specifically, we are actively seeking a setup that anticipates a local retest of the aforementioned resistance zone, which could serve as a catalyst for a reversal in price direction. By aligning our analysis with both technical and seasonal considerations, we aim to position ourselves strategically to navigate the evolving dynamics of the Platinum futures market.
NYMEX:PL1!Short
by FOREXN1
1