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Preparing for FOMC Impact on EUR/USD: Insights and AnalysisAs we approach the FOMC meeting later today, there is anticipation of a potential bullish movement of the EUR against the USD, accompanied by a retest of the 50% Fibonacci level on the short timeframe and an uptick in value. Indicators suggest oversold conditions. Regarding the Federal Reserve, it is expected to maintain a hawkish stance, acknowledging persistent inflation and robust economic indicators. Despite not updating its macroeconomic projections until June, the Fed is likely to highlight recent deteriorations in the inflation outlook. Chair Powell's press conference will be pivotal, with the potential to adjust earlier guidance on easing, indicating a more cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments. Market expectations have shifted, significantly reducing the likelihood of rate cuts in the near future and postponing the start of the easing cycle to September 2024. We anticipate an increase in the EUR value today, with a cautious approach to setting the stop loss (SL) and take profit (TP) levels.
Long
by FOREXN1
4
AUDUSD Forecast: Balancing Economic Realities with Market ExpectIn anticipation of the forthcoming FOMC meeting, the AUDUSD currency pair is demonstrating a notable increase in value, defying the backdrop of data indicating a prevailing contraction in private business activity across Australia during March. Despite these domestic economic challenges, market attention remains focused on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) upcoming meeting scheduled for the following week, widely expected to maintain interest rates at their current level of 4.35%. Against this backdrop, analysts and traders are closely monitoring the unfolding dynamics surrounding the FOMC meeting today. There is a prevailing sentiment within the trading community anticipating a potential bullish impulse in the market. Specifically, there are expectations that the price of the AUDUSD pair may experience a rebound from the significant Fibonacci retracement levels of 50% to 61.8%. Furthermore, there's speculation that this upward movement could bring the price back around the FVG area, signifying a possible uptrend in the market. This anticipated price action suggests the potential for a definitive pullback in the price, presenting traders with opportunities for strategic positioning and profit-taking.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
GOLD Hits Historical High Amid Bullish Rally, Eyes RetracementThe price of gold has surged to historic highs, reaching around $2170 fueled by a robust bullish rally, with little room for a retracement to catch its breath. However, indicators are signaling an overbought condition, suggesting a potential retracement or pullback in price. Central bank policymakers' dovish commentary has provided tailwinds for the yellow metal. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks indicating that the US central bank is nearing confidence in achieving its 2% inflation target to initiate interest rate cuts have bolstered gold's appeal. Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday for fresh market direction, with expectations of around 200,000 jobs added to the US economy. However, stronger-than-expected data could strengthen the Greenback, exerting downward pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde hinted at possible policy easing in the ECB's June meeting. While the ECB maintained its benchmark rate at 4.0% during its March meeting, it revised down its inflation forecast for 2024 from 2.7% to 2.3%, signaling potential rate cuts in the future. Amidst these developments, market analysts are anticipating a retracement in gold prices, with an initial target set at $2130. This retracement could offer traders an opportunity to reassess their positions and capitalize on potential market shifts. As the gold market navigates through a volatile landscape influenced by central bank policies and economic data releases, investors remain vigilant for further cues to determine the precious metal's future trajectory.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Surges to Seven-Week High: A Retracement on the Horizon?The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward momentum, surging to its highest level in seven weeks, surpassing the 1.09550 mark. However, as it nears a significant supply area, market analysts anticipate a potential pullback or retracement in the price. Following the March policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) opted to leave key interest rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations. However, the revised economic projections revealed downward revisions to both inflation and growth forecasts for 2024. During the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledged discussions regarding the possibility of scaling back the current restrictive policy stance. Lagarde emphasized the importance of being "sufficiently confident" in reaching the inflation goal and indicated that further data analysis would be necessary until the June meeting to determine the next policy steps. Despite the Euro's initial struggle to gain traction amidst the ECB event, the widespread selling pressure exerted on the US Dollar contributed to another upward surge in the EUR/USD pair during the latter half of the day. Alternatively, a strong push downward could be witnessed. As the market dynamics unfold, analysts are eyeing a potential retracement in the EUR/USD pair, targeting around the 1.0800 level. This retracement could serve as an opportunity for traders to reassess their positions and gauge the currency pair's future trajectory amidst evolving economic and policy developments.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
✅ Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY JULY 28, 2023Key News: Japan - BoJ Press Conference USA - Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun) USA - Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun) The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on the verge of breaking its longest winning streak in 36 years, fueled by Wall Street's tech-driven rally. The index achieved an impressive 13 consecutive sessions of closing higher until a slight 0.5% decline on Thursday afternoon, following earlier gains. Despite the dip, the rally's expansion across various sectors promises exciting prospects for investors. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index daily chart While investment professionals may lean towards the S&P 500 due to its broader representation of the market with over 500 stocks, the Dow Jones remains a prominent fixture in news media and enjoys widespread recognition among many Americans. The recent impressive surge in the Dow Jones is closely linked to traders' prevailing belief that the US Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday signifies the conclusion of its efforts to combat inflation. This move has instilled confidence in investors, who are now optimistic about the US economy's resilience and its potential to steer clear of a recession. S&P 500 daily chart According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, the Dow Jones' longest winning streak on record dates back to 1897, lasting an impressive 14 sessions. In spite of its recent gains, the Dow Jones has not performed as strongly as other major indices on Wall Street in 2023. Year to date, it has risen by 7%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have experienced more significant gains of 18% and 35%, respectively. During extended trading, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) witnessed a substantial increase of 8.4% following its Q2 earnings report. The company exceeded expectations with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13, outperforming analyst predictions of losses amounting to $0.04 per share. Furthermore, Intel reported a revenue of $12.9 billion for the quarter, surpassing the anticipated revenue of $12.09 billion. Intel Corporation stock daily chart Last night, the European Central Bank (ECB) made a noteworthy move by raising its main policy interest rates by 25 basis points, resulting in a deposit interest rate of 3.75%. The accompanying policy statement caught attention as it kept the possibility of further rate hikes open, but without adopting a more cautious stance. In response to the Federal Reserve's modest boost, the US markets received a slight uplift, while the European indices experienced significant gains this afternoon. The surprise came from ECB President Christine Lagarde's remarks, hinting that the rate hike campaign might conclude with a more dovish tone than initially anticipated. Consequently, the DAX, CAC, and other European indices surged, displaying robust bullish sentiment unaffected by strong US economic data. Although the FTSE's surge has slowed down this week, the overall market sentiment remains resolutely bullish. A few afternoon declines, primarily in Shell and Barclays shares, caused some drag, but the index still shows signs of further upside potential. Looking ahead, expectations point towards the Bank of England (BoE) following the lead of the Fed and ECB on rates. A dovish tone in the upcoming week should support UK stocks in reclaiming some lost ground. FTSE index daily chart During the early hours of Friday's Asian trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair is fluctuating within the range of 1.0980-1.0970. The pair is on a recovery path after experiencing a significant decline, marking its largest drop in 4.5 months during the previous day's trading. The current state of the Euro pair reflects the cautious sentiment prevailing in the market, as investors eagerly await the release of top-tier data from both Germany and the United States. The overall market sentiment appears subdued, reaching its lowest level in three weeks ahead of these crucial economic indicators. Investors are closely monitoring the data releases for potential insights into the economic outlook, contributing to the prevailing cautious atmosphere in the foreign exchange market. EUR/USD daily chart During the highly anticipated July policy review meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members unanimously agreed to maintain their existing monetary policy settings without making any changes. This includes leaving interest rates at -10 basis points and keeping the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield target at 0.00%. The market's response to the BoJ's policy announcements was immediate, and the USD/JPY pair experienced a notable upward movement, gaining significant momentum. At present, the pair is trading at 140.06, representing a notable 0.45% increase for the day. In the aftermath of the BoJ's decision, there was a swift knee-jerk reaction, propelling the pair to test 141.08 before eventually settling at its current trading level. The BoJ's decision has had a considerable impact on the foreign exchange market, influencing the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair and prompting investors to closely monitor further developments. USD/JPY daily chart As Friday's trading approaches, investors are eagerly awaiting the release of crucial data on the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index, a key indicator of inflation. This data will be closely monitored, as it can provide valuable insights into the current inflationary pressures in the economy. Additionally, market participants will be keenly interested in the Michigan consumer sentiment and expectations data. This data, reflecting consumer confidence and economic expectations, holds significant importance as it sheds light on consumer behavior and sentiment, which are crucial drivers of economic growth. On the earnings front, two major companies, Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) and Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG), are scheduled to announce their quarterly results. These reports have the potential to significantly impact the stock prices of these companies and may also influence broader market sentiment. Investors will scrutinize these earnings reports to assess the financial health of these corporations and to gauge the overall health of their respective industries. As these critical data releases and earnings reports unfold on Friday, the financial markets are likely to experience heightened volatility and uncertainty. Investors are advised to exercise caution and remain vigilant during this period, as the outcomes of these events can have substantial implications for investment decisions and market trends.
by FOREXN1
4
EUR/USD Records Lowest Daily Close Since July 12 Amid Economic..EUR/USD Records Lowest Daily Close Since July 12 Amid Economic Weakness in Eurozone The EUR/USD pair faced another decline, marking its lowest daily close since July 12. Continuing its downward trend for the fifth consecutive day, the pair is undergoing a corrective phase after reaching its highest level in over a year, near 1.1300, earlier this month. The drop was primarily influenced by weaker-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone, leading market attention towards central banks' actions. Eurozone's Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) fell below expectations, with the Manufacturing PMI dropping to 42.7 in June, while the Services PMI stood at 51.1. The Composite Index recorded a reading of 48.9, marking its lowest level since November. Both Germany and France experienced Composite Indexes below 50, signaling heightened risks of a recession. Despite these indications of economic weakness, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to raise interest rates by 25 basis points during its upcoming meeting on Thursday. Investors will closely analyze the messaging from the central bank for further insights. On the other hand, US Treasury yields rose as market participants positioned themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision. The Fed is expected to implement a 25 basis points rate hike on Wednesday. The central bank's communication will be of utmost importance, not only for the US Dollar but also for financial markets. The US PMI data presented mixed results, with the Services PMI declining from 54.4 to 52.4 in July, falling short of the anticipated 54. However, the Manufacturing PMI rebounded from 46.3 to 49, surpassing the market consensus of 46.4. The strengthening US Dollar Index (DXY) has been pressuring the EUR/USD pair downwards. While the pair is expected to stabilize in anticipation of the Fed meeting, increased volatility is anticipated in the coming sessions. On Tuesday, the German IFO survey and US housing data are scheduled for release, adding further potential for market movement. TurnAround Point: 1.1100 Our preference Short positions below 1.1100 with targets at 1.1055 & 1.1035in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
✅ Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY JULY 25, 2023Key News: Canada - Manufacturing Sales (MoM) USA - S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (May) USA - CB Consumer Confidence (Jul) On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average extended its winning streak with an impressive eleventh-straight gain, primarily driven by a surge in energy stocks. Investor sentiment remained upbeat as they embraced the better-than-expected quarterly results from major technology companies. Additionally, market participants were eagerly awaiting the upcoming Federal Reserve's decision later in the week. Similarly, the S&P 500 also experienced gains, propelled by strength in energy stocks. Investors continued to digest the positive quarterly reports from prominent tech firms, contributing to the positive market sentiment. The anticipation for the Federal Reserve's decision added to the overall optimism, with investors closely monitoring the central bank's next move. Dow Jones Industrial Average indices daily chart S&P 500 indices daily chart Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), two major tech giants, are set to announce their earnings after the market closes on Tuesday. The tech sector faced some challenges last week, as bullish bets were affected by declines in Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) stocks. These slumps in prominent tech companies had an impact on investor sentiment towards the sector. As Alphabet and Microsoft prepare to release their earnings reports, investors will closely watch for any insights into the overall health and performance of the tech industry. GOOGL stock daily chart TSLA stock daily chart Wedbush analysts hold a positive outlook for this week, presenting a different scenario compared to the previous one, particularly for the tech sector. Their optimism is based on several contributing factors, including the strong performance of cloud services, monetization of artificial intelligence (AI), stabilization of digital advertising, and an overall environment of increased confidence in IT spending. With these factors in play, the analysts believe there is a compelling case for investing in tech stocks during the second quarter tech earnings season. In the currency markets, the US dollar exhibited sustained strength during overnight trading, continuing a significant rebound observed in the previous session. This strength led to the USD/JPY pair rising above the 140.00 level once again, indicating a bullish trend for the dollar against the Japanese yen. Investors and traders will closely monitor the dollar's movements in response to various economic factors and events in the global market. USD/JPY daily chart The recent reversal of the US dollar's weakness can be attributed to an uptick in US yields. Over the past week, the 2-year US Treasury bond yield rose by slightly over 20 basis points (bps) as market participants adjusted their predictions concerning the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts for the upcoming year. However, the forecast for one final rate hike this month saw little change, indicating that investors are still expecting some tightening by the central bank in the near term. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart This week holds significant central bank meetings, with the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday being particularly noteworthy. Interest rates have either reached their peak levels or are very close to doing so, and there is a possibility that this week could witness the Fed and ECB announcing their final rate hike in their tightening cycles. PMI data offers insights into the ongoing global economic cooling trend. Inflation is also on the decline, largely due to favorable base effects, falling energy prices, and slower growth in food costs. Recent PMI data from the eurozone, the UK, and the US all convey a similar message. The manufacturing sectors continue to face challenges, with the US performing better than expected. However, expectations for growth in services are slowing. These surveys indicate clear signs of further economic cooling, reduced inflationary pressures, and weaker hiring trends. While central banks may find some relief in the data, it's unlikely to be sufficient for them to claim victory or explicitly announce the end of their tightening cycles. Policymakers will proceed with extreme caution, although they will be encouraged by the positive data observed over the last month or two. Gold, in the meantime, appears to be pausing momentarily in anticipation of the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday. The yellow metal recently received a significant boost from positive economic data, coming close to reaching the $2,000 mark at one point last week. Investors will closely monitor the Fed's decisions and statements for further clues about the future direction of gold prices. XAU/USD daily chart Indeed, there has been some profit-taking in the gold market following the recent surge, causing the price to pull back to around $1,960. These price fluctuations have made it challenging to definitively interpret the short-term direction of gold. The future trajectory of gold will be heavily influenced by the decisions of the Federal Reserve. If the Fed provides a clear indication that the current rate hike will be the final one or surprises the market by not raising rates, it could trigger a bullish sentiment for gold. In such a scenario, the precious metal may have the potential to test the $2,000 level once again. A breakthrough above this psychological and technical barrier would serve as a strong bullish signal for gold, attracting further investor interest. Investors will closely monitor the Fed's actions and statements for any cues on how gold might behave in the coming days. The central bank's communication and stance on monetary policy will play a crucial role in shaping gold's price direction in the near term.
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD decline Towards 1.105 Following Disappointing EurozoneAfter a relatively quiet Asian session, the EUR/USD pair faced an onslaught of bearish pressure, breaking below the critical level of 1.1100. Now, the focus shifts to the next potential support zone around 1.1050, although there may be some reprieve in the near term due to oversold conditions. The latest data from Germany brought concerning news, as the HCOB Composite PMI for early July tumbled to 48.3 from 50.6 in June, indicating a clear contraction in the private sector's business activity. Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), commented on the PMI surveys, expressing the view that there's an increased likelihood of the economy slipping into a recession in the latter half of the year. The HCOB's nowcast for the third quarter, considering the latest PMI figures, signals negative growth prospects. In line with Germany's struggles, the Eurozone's HCOB Composite PMI also worsened, declining from 49.9 to 48.9 during the same period. The Manufacturing PMI in the region slumped even further, falling from 43.4 to 42.7. As the day progresses, market participants eagerly await the S&P Global PMIs from the US. A reading above 50 in these reports could reaffirm the perception that the US economy is in relatively better shape compared to the EU. Such a development might add more weight to the EUR/USD's downward trend, especially in anticipation of crucial policy announcements by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve scheduled for later this week. TurnAround Point: 1.1110 Our preference Short positions below 1.1110 with targets at 1.1055 & 1.1035 in extension.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
Daily Market Analysis - THURSDAY JULY 20, 2023Greetings, traders! Welcome back to our daily Market Analysis. Today, we have gathered the top news and interesting fundamental analysis for your consideration. Let's dive in and stay informed! The market digests positive earnings reports and economic optimism, driving various assets higher. Among them, the Australian Dollar surges on the back of robust employment data. Investors are analyzing corporate earnings reports and economic indicators to gauge the health of the global economy. The Australian Dollar has seen significant gains following the release of strong employment data, indicating positive economic momentum in the country. Key News: USA - Initial Jobless Claims USA - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) USA - Existing Home Sales (Jun) On Wednesday evening, Dow futures experienced a decline, following the earlier surge in major benchmark averages, reaching new 15-month highs. Traders were closely analyzing the quarterly earnings results of significant companies reported during the session. The market was in the process of digesting this corporate financial data to assess its potential impact on future trends. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index daily chart Yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a positive outlook on the current economic conditions in the United States, which was well-received by the markets. The decreasing inflation has fostered optimism about the US economy's potential for a smooth landing. Yellen's confidence in the labor market cooling down without significant distress has further contributed to this positive sentiment. If economic data continues to support this optimistic view, the market is likely to maintain confidence in a soft economic landing, leading to a gradual decline in the value of the US dollar. The S&P 500 index experienced a 0.7% increase yesterday, approaching levels last seen in early April when inflation concerns were more pronounced. S&P 500 daily chart The recent retail sales data from the US also supports the idea of a soft economic landing, with consumer spending showing growth, albeit at a slower pace. Despite this positive economic outlook, the yen is currently underperforming, as carry trades gain favor in the market. In Japan, the TOPIX index experienced a 1.0% increase, and the 10-year swap rate retreated after reaching highs earlier this month, surpassing 0.70% on Friday for the first time since March. TOPIX daily chart Governor Ueda's comments at the G20 summit in India have played a role in the recent rebound of USD/JPY and the decline in longer-term yields. His statement emphasized that achieving the 2% inflation goal is still a distant prospect, reaffirming the unchanged assumption reiterated in the overall narrative. USD/JPY daily chart The market's response to Governor Ueda's comments has tempered speculation about an immediate yield curve control (YCC) change in the upcoming week. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might still make adjustments to YCC during the July meeting based on updated forecasts. Although yields currently show no upward pressure and are within the 0.50% band limit, the upcoming CPI data on Friday will be pivotal and could reignite speculation depending on the results. On Thursday, the Australian dollar saw a substantial surge after the release of better-than-expected employment data in the country. Australia's net employment rose by 32,600 in June, exceeding market expectations for the second consecutive month of a 15,000 increase. As a result of this positive economic news, the Australian dollar surged more than 0.9% to reach an intraday high of $0.6834. AUD/USD daily chart On the other hand, the British pound suffered notable losses due to disappointing inflation data that fell short of market expectations. As a result, the market's anticipation of further aggressive interest rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) diminished. However, the pound managed to stage a slight recovery, gaining 0.15% to trade at $1.2958, after experiencing a decline of over 0.7% on the previous day. GBP/USD daily chart The euro, on the other hand, strengthened by 0.24% against the US dollar, reaching $1.1227. Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting for additional insights into the rate outlook. Recently, ECB policymakers have adopted a more dovish stance, with some indicating uncertainty about future rate increases beyond the likely 25 basis points increase expected in July.
by FOREXN1
13
The Psychology Of Trading: How To Manage Your Emotions.The significance of psychology in trading cannot be overstated, as it serves as a cornerstone for achieving success. Failure to acknowledge its importance can have disastrous consequences. A notable example is the case of Nick Leeson, who single-handedly caused the downfall of the venerable 200-year-old Barings Bank, a financial institution of such stature that even Queen Elizabeth II entrusted her funds to it. The losses incurred amounted to a staggering 2 million pounds, highlighting how the lack of emotional control in trading can lead to catastrophic outcomes. Understanding and managing one's psychological state is crucial for traders at every level, without any exceptions. It holds true for beginners who may be working with a modest capital of a few hundred dollars, as well as for seasoned professionals who operate with million-dollar deposits. The ability to control emotions, maintain a disciplined mindset, and make rational decisions amidst market fluctuations are vital components for long-term success in trading. By recognizing the impact of psychology and taking steps to develop a strong mental framework, traders can navigate the complexities of the financial markets with greater resilience and achieve their desired outcomes. What Is Trading Psychology? Trading psychology encompasses the behavioral aspects that shape an individual's actions within the realm of financial markets. These actions range from identifying optimal entry points to executing profitable trades. Renowned trader and fund manager William Eckhardt once remarked that intelligence is largely unrelated to success in trading. Based on his observations, individuals of average intelligence, yet diligent in their approach and possessing discipline and self-control, consistently achieved trading success. This observation underscores the crucial role of psychology in trading. Only through complete control over one's actions can traders earn stable profits, rather than relying on occasional wins. The development of trading psychology is a process that unfolds over time. Beginners often find themselves prone to making repetitive mistakes, but with a focus on self-control, they can cultivate these necessary qualities. The key lies in the ability to learn from one's own mistakes and grow from them. By recognizing and addressing psychological factors such as fear, greed, and impatience, traders can enhance their decision-making abilities and gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics. Through continuous self-reflection and a commitment to personal growth, individuals can refine their trading psychology, leading to more consistent and successful outcomes. How Do I Handle My Emotions As A Trader? Indeed, while constant practice and self-control are essential components of addressing psychological challenges in trading, a more detailed approach is necessary for effectively resolving these issues. Below are some key strategies that can contribute to overcoming psychological obstacles in trading: 1) Self-awareness: Develop a deep understanding of your own psychological tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses as a trader. Recognize the emotions and biases that may influence your decision-making process. 2) Journaling: Maintain a trading journal to record your thoughts, emotions, and actions during trades. This practice can help you identify patterns, errors, and areas for improvement. Regularly review and reflect on your journal entries to gain valuable insights into your psychological state while trading. 3) Emotional regulation: Learn to manage emotions such as fear, greed, and impatience. Implement techniques like deep breathing exercises, meditation, or mindfulness practices to cultivate emotional stability and prevent impulsive decision-making. 4) Risk management: Establish and adhere to a well-defined risk management plan. Determine the maximum acceptable level of risk for each trade and set stop-loss orders accordingly. This approach can help mitigate the negative impact of emotional decision-making during turbulent market conditions. 5) Positive reinforcement: Celebrate your trading successes, regardless of their magnitude. Acknowledge and reward yourself for following your trading plan and executing disciplined trades. This positive reinforcement can strengthen your confidence and reinforce desirable trading behaviors. 6) Continuous education: Invest in expanding your knowledge and skills through ongoing education. Attend trading workshops, webinars, and seminars to enhance your understanding of both technical and psychological aspects of trading. Engaging with a community of traders can provide valuable support and insights. 7) Seeking support: Consider joining trading forums or finding a mentor who can provide guidance and support. Discussing challenges and sharing experiences with fellow traders can offer fresh perspectives and encourage personal growth. Remember, addressing psychological challenges in trading is an ongoing process that requires dedication and perseverance. By implementing these strategies and adapting them to your individual needs, you can develop a robust psychological toolkit to navigate the complexities of the market and enhance your trading performance. Learn To Rest Trading is undoubtedly associated with stress, and it is crucial to find effective ways to alleviate psychological pressure. No one can sustain constant worry about open trades or missed opportunities without experiencing negative consequences. Just as athletes prioritize physical and mental preparation before important games or competitions, traders can benefit from a similar approach. Taking care of both physiology and psychology is essential in achieving a balanced state of mind. To effectively manage stress in trading, consider the following recommendations: Establish a routine: Create a structured daily schedule that includes not only trading activities but also time for physical exercise, relaxation, and leisure. This routine helps maintain a sense of balance and prevents trading from becoming the sole focus of your life. Physical activity: Incorporate regular exercise into your routine. Engaging in activities such as going to the gym, taking walks, or participating in sports can help reduce stress, improve overall well-being, and promote mental clarity. Healthy lifestyle: Pay attention to your diet, sleep patterns, and overall self-care. Eating nutritious meals, getting sufficient sleep, and practicing relaxation techniques like meditation or deep breathing exercises contribute to a healthier physiological state, which in turn positively impacts your psychological well-being. Maintain social connections: Engage with friends, family, and fellow traders to maintain a support network. Sharing experiences, discussing challenges, and seeking advice from trusted individuals can alleviate feelings of isolation and provide valuable perspectives. Take breaks: Allow yourself regular breaks from trading to recharge and rejuvenate. Stepping away from the screen, engaging in hobbies, or spending time in nature can help reduce stress levels and provide a fresh perspective when you return to the market. Mindfulness and stress management techniques: Incorporate mindfulness practices into your daily routine. Techniques such as meditation, deep breathing exercises, or visualization can help calm the mind, increase self-awareness, and improve resilience in the face of stress. Remember, trading should be a part of your life, not the sole focus. By nurturing a well-rounded lifestyle that includes physical activity, relaxation, and maintaining social connections, you can effectively manage stress, enhance your psychological well-being, and ultimately improve your trading performance. Don't Focus On The Problem And Find Unconventional Solutions Trading is inherently dynamic, and challenges are bound to arise. Profitable strategies can lose their effectiveness over time, and market conditions evolve, rendering old analytical methods obsolete. It is important to recognize the risk of becoming fixated on a specific problem without finding a guaranteed solution. One common example is the endless pursuit of optimizing a trading strategy. Traders may dedicate days or even weeks attempting to fine-tune a strategy, only to find their efforts in vain. In such situations, it is crucial for traders to possess the ability to recognize when to let go and seek alternative approaches. If attempts to optimize an existing strategy prove futile, it may be time to explore new strategies or even consider a shift in trading style altogether. Adaptability and the willingness to embrace change are essential qualities for traders. Instead of becoming overly attached to a single approach, being open to non-standard solutions can be immensely valuable. This might involve exploring different trading methodologies, incorporating new indicators, or even considering alternative markets. Finding a new strategy or adjusting one's trading style requires a combination of self-reflection, continuous learning, and experimentation. Being proactive in seeking innovative solutions ensures that traders can navigate evolving market conditions and maintain a competitive edge. Remember, trading is a dynamic endeavor, and the ability to adapt and explore new possibilities is key to long-term success. By embracing change and being open to new strategies, traders can navigate the challenges that arise and continue to thrive in the ever-changing landscape of the financial markets. Fearless Analysis Brett Steenbarger's analogy between trading analysis and the principles of Alcoholics Anonymous highlights an important aspect of personal growth and development in trading. Just as it takes courage for individuals to admit their problems and seek help in recovery programs like Alcoholics Anonymous, traders must also be willing to acknowledge their mistakes and take responsibility for their actions. In the trading world, it is common for individuals to deflect blame onto external factors such as the market, market makers, or indicators, rather than accepting their own errors. However, true progress can only be achieved when traders are mentally capable of saying to themselves, "I made mistakes, and that's why I lost money. The external factors played a minimal role." By embracing this mindset, traders can take ownership of their actions and begin the process of self-improvement. Accepting personal responsibility for mistakes allows for self-reflection and learning from past experiences. It enables traders to identify areas for improvement, refine their strategies, and develop a more disciplined and effective approach to trading. Acknowledging the problem is indeed the first step toward finding a solution. This fundamental principle holds true not only in trading but in all aspects of life. By confronting our shortcomings, we open the door to personal growth and development. It empowers us to make necessary changes, learn from our mistakes, and ultimately enhance our trading performance. In summary, having the courage to admit mistakes, taking responsibility for one's actions, and acknowledging the role of personal accountability are crucial steps in the journey toward becoming a successful trader. Evaluation Of Hypothetical Scenarios Being prepared for all possible scenarios is a crucial aspect of successful trading. Relying solely on one scenario and assuming a 100% guarantee is unrealistic and leaves traders vulnerable to unexpected market movements. For instance, in the case of a well-established downtrend where a currency pair consistently breaks through support levels, it may appear likely that the trend will continue. However, it is important to acknowledge that no outcome can be guaranteed with absolute certainty. While the probability of a reversal might be relatively low, it is still essential for traders to evaluate this scenario and consider potential levels where the downward movement could potentially halt, as well as identify potential targets in case of a reversal. By considering multiple scenarios, traders are prepared for different market outcomes. If one scenario fails to materialize, they can quickly shift to their backup plan of action. This approach avoids panic and ensures a clear understanding of the unfolding market conditions. It benefits traders both emotionally, by maintaining a composed mindset, and practically, by helping to recover from any potential drawdowns. If losses occur according to the first scenario, the backup plan allows for swift recovery and helps compensate for the incurred loss. Having multiple scenarios and contingency plans not only provides traders with a more comprehensive approach but also fosters adaptability and resilience in navigating various market conditions. It enables traders to effectively manage risk and make informed decisions based on evolving market dynamics. In summary, a trader's ability to embrace multiple scenarios and swiftly switch to alternative plans when necessary contributes to emotional stability, risk management, and the potential for recovering from losses. Being prepared for all possibilities strengthens a trader's overall strategy and increases the chances of achieving consistent profitability. Detached Attitude To Trading In the world of trading, the psychology of the quiet trader refers to the ability to approach trading with a calm and detached mindset, devoid of intense emotional reactions. While it may be unlikely to experience intense emotions in a typical day job, achieving a similar state of detachment and routine in trading is a valuable skill to develop. At the beginning of their trading journey, it is natural for traders to experience a range of emotions that can interfere with decision-making. However, with consistent practice and experience, the trading process can become more routine and automatic. Placing orders and managing positions should become a habitual process that no longer elicits strong emotional reactions. Larry Hite, a renowned trader featured in Jack Schwager's book "Stock Market Wizards," highlighted the importance of trading being utterly boring. Hite's trades were devoid of captivating stories that interested his colleagues. This perspective underscores the idea that successful trading involves striving for consistency and routine in every trade. The art of trading lies in developing a disciplined approach where all trades become similar to each other. This means treating each trade as part of a well-defined strategy, adhering to predetermined rules, and executing trades without being swayed by emotional highs or lows. By cultivating this mindset, traders can maintain a calm and objective perspective, making sound decisions based on analysis and strategy rather than being influenced by fleeting emotions. It is important to note that achieving the psychology of the quiet trader requires ongoing practice and self-awareness. Emotions may still arise, especially during challenging market conditions, but the goal is to minimize their impact on trading decisions. Through continuous learning, self-reflection, and discipline, traders can strive for a state of emotional detachment and routine in their trading activities. In summary, the psychology of the quiet trader emphasizes the importance of approaching trading with a calm and detached mindset. By striving for routine and consistency, traders can reduce the influence of emotions and make objective decisions based on their trading strategy. Developing this skill requires practice, self-awareness, and a commitment to ongoing improvement. Keeping Track Of Your Actions Keeping a trader's journal is often overlooked by many beginners in the trading world. It may initially appear unnecessary, as the signals and trades seem clear in the moment, leaving no room for the perceived time wastage of jotting down notes. However, this approach ultimately deprives traders of a valuable foundation for future trade analysis and improvement. While trading reports can be downloaded from the trading terminal, they are not an adequate substitute for a trader's journal. Trading reports typically only include basic information such as trade details (entry and exit times), closed position results, and expenses incurred. On the other hand, a trader's journal goes beyond these raw data points, allowing traders to record the reasons behind their trading decisions and evaluate their emotional state during each trade. By maintaining a journal, traders can gain insights into their decision-making processes and learn from past experiences. It provides an opportunity to review trades and analyze the effectiveness of their strategies. Additionally, tracking emotional states throughout trades helps traders identify patterns and better understand how emotions can impact their performance. In addition to the journal, it is recommended that beginners create a checklist to ensure the adherence to their trading rules. Writing down and assessing the filters used to evaluate trade signals on a sheet of paper, assigning points to each filter, and evaluating entry points can be effective techniques. Over time, traders may become adept at mentally checking these criteria, but the act of physically documenting them helps reinforce consistency and discipline. Both the trader's journal and checklist serve as valuable tools for self-assessment and improvement. They provide a structured framework for traders to reflect on their trades, identify strengths and weaknesses, and refine their trading strategies. By consistently using these techniques, beginners can develop a deeper understanding of their trading approach and enhance their overall performance over time. In summary, while it may seem unnecessary at first, maintaining a trader's journal and utilizing a checklist can greatly contribute to a trader's growth and improvement. These practices offer valuable insights into decision-making processes, emotional states, and the adherence to trading rules. By incorporating these techniques into their routine, traders can refine their strategies and make informed adjustments to achieve greater trading success. Regular Practice As mentioned earlier, taking breaks in trading is important for maintaining a balanced approach and managing stress. However, it is crucial to clarify that taking breaks does not mean completely giving up trading for an extended period. Consistency and regular practice are key to developing and refining trading skills. In the event of a challenging period or a losing streak, it is necessary to pause and take time to normalize one's psychological state. This break allows traders to step back, reassess their approach, and work on addressing any mistakes or weaknesses. Taking the time to reflect and learn from past experiences can contribute to personal growth and improvement as a trader. However, it is essential to emphasize that the break should not transform into a long-term avoidance of trading. Once the trader has regained their psychological equilibrium and made necessary adjustments, it is important to resume trading. Consistent practice is vital for maintaining trading skills and staying in shape, similar to how weightlifters need regular training to retain their form. Drawing a parallel to sports, just as weightlifters would lose their physical form without regular practice, traders need consistent engagement in the markets to hone their skills and adapt to changing conditions. By regularly participating in trading activities, traders can stay sharp, stay updated with market dynamics, and refine their strategies. In summary, while breaks are valuable for maintaining psychological well-being and addressing trading challenges, it is important not to abandon trading for an extended period. Regular practice and engagement in the markets are necessary for traders to stay in shape and continuously improve their trading skills. By striking a balance between taking breaks when needed and consistent practice, traders can navigate the markets effectively and increase their chances of success. Trading Will Be Unprofitable From Time To Time Indeed, it is crucial for beginners to understand that not every trade will be profitable. It is unrealistic to expect a 100% success rate in trading, and even the most successful traders experience losses along the way. What matters is the overall statistics and performance of their trading strategy. Successful trading is not about winning every single trade, but rather about having a strategy that generates a greater number of profitable trades and/or profits that exceed the losses. Traders should focus on the bigger picture and assess the effectiveness of their strategy based on the cumulative results over a period of time, such as a day, week, or month. Instead of fixating on the outcome of each individual trade, it is more important for traders to pay attention to whether their trades adhere to their predetermined rules. If a trade is closed based on the application of a stop-loss order, and the decision was in line with their strategy, then it can be considered a successful trade, regardless of the actual outcome. By shifting the focus from the outcome of each trade to the consistency and adherence to the trading plan, traders can maintain discipline and objectivity in their decision-making. It allows them to evaluate the effectiveness of their strategy based on a broader perspective and make informed adjustments as needed. In summary, it is crucial for beginners to understand that not every trade will be profitable. The key to successful trading lies in the overall performance of the strategy, with a focus on the compliance with predetermined rules rather than the outcome of individual trades. By adopting this mindset, traders can maintain discipline, manage risk effectively, and increase their chances of long-term profitability. Possible Failure Is Not Related To Your Personal Qualities Absolutely, the outcome of the first attempt in trading does not define a person's intelligence or talent. It is important for beginners to recognize that initial failures are a common part of the learning process. In fact, even intellectually developed individuals may face challenges in trading, and there is no direct correlation between intellectual capacity and trading success. Famous traders have observed that intellectually developed individuals may find trading more difficult. This could be due to various factors such as overanalysis, overthinking, or struggling to detach emotions from their decision-making process. However, it is crucial to remember that trading skills can be developed through discipline, persistence, and a willingness to learn from mistakes. Mistakes are not a disaster but rather opportunities for growth and improvement. They serve as valuable lessons that can be used to refine decision-making methods and trading strategies. With dedication and a commitment to learning, traders can make corrections and progress in their trading journey. Success in trading relies more on discipline and persistence than innate talent or intelligence. Developing the ability to stick to a trading plan, manage risk effectively, and maintain emotional control are critical factors in achieving long-term success. By cultivating these qualities and learning from mistakes, traders can enhance their trading skills and increase their chances of success in the markets. In summary, the outcome of the first attempt in trading does not determine a person's intelligence or talent. Mistakes and challenges are part of the learning process, and success in trading is not solely dependent on innate abilities. By emphasizing discipline, persistence, and a commitment to continuous improvement, traders can overcome obstacles, learn from mistakes, and increase their chances of achieving trading success. Conclusion Losing a trading deposit does not indicate a lack of intelligence or suggest that trading is not suitable for an individual. It is important to understand that losses are a natural part of the trading journey and can provide valuable lessons for personal growth and improvement. Instead of viewing a lost deposit as a failure, it should be seen as an opportunity to learn from mistakes, gain experience, and continue working towards success. Learning from other people's mistakes is indeed beneficial in trading. By studying the experiences and insights of successful traders, one can gain valuable knowledge and avoid making similar errors. However, personal experiences and mistakes also play a crucial role in the learning process. Analyzing one's own trades, identifying what went wrong, and drawing conclusions from those experiences can lead to valuable insights and improvements in future trading decisions. It is essential to approach trading with a growth mindset, understanding that setbacks and losses are temporary and can be stepping stones to success. Rather than being discouraged by mistakes, it is important to embrace them as opportunities for growth and development. By learning from both personal and others' mistakes, traders can refine their strategies, strengthen their decision-making skills, and increase their chances of achieving success in the markets. In summary, a lost trading deposit does not determine an individual's intelligence or suitability for trading. It is a chance to learn, grow, and refine one's approach to trading. By utilizing personal experiences and drawing lessons from both personal and others' mistakes, traders can enhance their knowledge, skills, and ultimately increase their potential for success in the world of trading.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDEducation
by FOREXN1
22
GBP/JPY Hits Highest Levels Since 2016, Ignoring Mixed UK GrowthGBP/JPY maintains its bullish stance around the mid-175.00s, supported by concerns about the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and selling pressure in Treasury bonds. The currency pair continues to hold onto moderate gains, reaching its highest levels since January 2016. Despite mixed concerns about the UK's economic growth, sellers remain subdued due to BoJ officials defending their accommodative monetary policy. The bond markets reflect significant selling pressure ahead of the upcoming central bank decision. The bearish Japan Producer Price Index (PPI) further strengthens the bullish bias, especially in anticipation of the UK employment data and the BoJ monetary policy meeting. GBP/JPY remains on an upward trajectory for the fourth consecutive day, as bulls push the currency pair to levels not seen since early 2016 during the European session on Monday. This upward momentum is justified by the market's acceptance of the diverging monetary policies between the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Additionally, the firmer bond yields and the upcoming significant data and events of the week contribute to the positive sentiment. Concerns about the hawkish stance of the BoE are not substantiated by the latest comments from policymakers. Catherine Mann of the BoE emphasizes the need for a long-term agenda to support economic growth. Meanwhile, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) trade body suggests that although the UK's economy is likely to avoid a recession this year, persistent issues like weak business investment remain. The higher inflation in the UK compared to Japan, along with these ongoing concerns, favor the GBP/JPY bulls, reinforcing the divergence between the two central banks. On the other hand, Japan's PPI for May continues its downward trend for the fifth consecutive month, registering a year-on-year decline of 5.1% compared to the previous reading of 5.8% and market expectations of 5.5%. The monthly figures also disappoint Yen traders, showing a -0.7% month-on-month outcome, while expectations were at -0.2% and the previous figure was 0.2%. Following this weak inflation data, BoJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe states that there will be no changes in the BoJ's monetary policy during this week's meeting. Furthermore, Bloomberg reports heavy selling pressure in the Treasury bond market, favoring higher yields and GBP/JPY prices. Hedge funds continue to sell short-dated Treasuries, expecting the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation to persist. However, recent bullish speculations supporting the BoJ's potential exit from ultra-easy monetary policy pose a challenge to GBP/JPY bulls. Reuters reports a decline in yields on Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) as investors anticipate that the Bank of Japan will maintain its current stimulus settings during this week's meeting. Looking ahead, Tuesday's UK employment data will be significant for observers of the currency pair, leading up to the BoJ meeting on Friday.
Long
by FOREXN1
30
AUD/USD Pair Climbs to One-Month High, Faces Consolidation AheadOn Tuesday, the AUD/USD pair reached its highest level in a month at 0.6807 following the release of US economic data. However, it later retreated, reducing its daily gains. The Australian dollar struggled to stay above 0.6800. Although the upward trend remains intact after rising in eight of the last nine trading days, it appears that some consolidation or correction is overdue. The latest data revealed that the Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence increased by 0.2% in June, in line with expectations. On the other hand, the National Australia Bank reported a larger-than-expected decline in the Business Conditions Index from 15 to 8 in May, along with a drop in the Confidence Index from 0 to -4. The most significant economic report of the week, which includes employment numbers, is scheduled for release on Thursday. It is expected to show a positive change of 15,000. The decision by the People's Bank of China to ease short-term policy rates contributed to the positive sentiment towards the Australian dollar. This move by Chinese policymakers could potentially lead to further rate cuts. Specifically, on Tuesday, the 7-day reverse repo rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.9%. However, the impact on commodities and Chinese equities remained limited. In the US, data indicated that consumer inflation eased in May, with the Consumer Price Index rising by 0.1% and the annual rate at 4.0%, the lowest reading since March 2021. These figures reinforced the Federal Reserve's decision to pause. On Wednesday, the FOMC will release new economic projections, and Chair Powell is expected to provide a message that might signal the possibility of more rate hikes despite recent numbers. Additionally, the US May Producer Price Index is due before the FOMC statement. The US dollar and risk sentiment will continue to be the key drivers in the next few hours. Market participants will closely analyze the inflation figures from the US ahead of the FOMC statement. If a positive tone prevails in equity markets during the Asian session and commodity prices continue to rise, the Australian dollar could strengthen. The performance of the AUD/USD pair after the FOMC statement will be crucial in determining its trajectory, particularly in the 0.6800 area. From a technical standpoint, we anticipate a potential reaction and drop to the 38.2% or 50% Fibonacci level from the previous swing low before resuming growth.
by FOREXN1
5
GBP/USD Faces Correction Amid Potential Reversal Zone IdentifiedGBP/USD Retreats from Highs, Holding Ground Below 1.2600 Level in Early European Trading GBP/USD, after reaching its highest level since May 10 near 1.2570 earlier on Friday, is currently struggling to gain upward momentum and has entered a consolidation phase during the European trading hours. The pair has edged lower, defending minor bids below the 1.2600 level. The US Dollar is maintaining its recovery gains, supported by a cautious market sentiment. The focus remains on the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and the Federal Reserve's decision. On Thursday, the US Dollar faced significant selling pressure as the US Department of Labor's weekly report indicated an increase in Initial Jobless Claims to 261,000 for the week ending June 3, up from 233,000. This data highlighted looser labor market conditions, leading to a retreat in the 10-year US Treasury bond yield, which had previously seen gains following the unexpected rate hike by the Bank of Canada. Consequently, the US Dollar Index declined by more than 0.7%, reflecting the negative impact of the jobless claims data on the currency's performance. Meanwhile, major US stock indexes closed higher. In the European session, US stock index futures are trading mixed, and the UK's FTSE is showing modest gains. If risk sentiment does not continue to dominate market dynamics in the second half of the day, investors might refrain from betting on sustained weakness in the US Dollar ahead of crucial inflation data and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting next week. This caution could limit further upward movement in GBP/USD. Considering Thursday's significant rally, market participants may also opt to secure their profits, resulting in a downward correction for GBP/USD. Notably, in the H4 timeframe, a recognizable Gartley Harmonic pattern has emerged, indicating that the price is currently in a potential reversal zone. This pattern could present an interesting option for traders to consider.
Short
by FOREXN1
18
EUR/USD Surges Amid Soft US Employment DataThe EUR/USD faced downward pressure, remaining below the 1.0800 level. However, it experienced a notable upswing on Thursday, delivering its strongest performance in weeks, primarily driven by a weakened US Dollar. The Greenback faltered across the board as softer employment data from the US emerged ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting next week. This favorable outlook suggests the potential for further gains in the near term. Despite downward revisions in Euro area Q1 GDP, the Euro remained unaffected. The growth rate was adjusted from 0.1% QoQ to -0.1% QoQ. Growth varied across countries, with Italy and Spain displaying a 0.5% expansion, France at 0.2%, and Germany experiencing a contraction of 0.3%. These figures did not significantly alter expectations for the upcoming European Central Bank meeting. Market pricing already accounts for a 25 basis points rate hike. However, the updated macroeconomic forecasts may carry more significance. Thursday's rally in EUR/USD was propelled by a combination of factors, including a weakened US Dollar, increased risk appetite, and technical considerations. In the US, Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly rose to their highest level since October 2021. These figures further tempered expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. However, the crucial report to watch will be the release of the May Consumer Price Index next Tuesday, just a day before the FOMC decision. Interestingly, Wall Street responded positively to the negative employment numbers, boosting risk appetite and exerting additional downward pressure on the US Dollar. As we approach Friday, the highlight on the economic calendar will be a speech from ECB's Guindos. Currently, the US Dollar appears weak in the lead-up to the Asian session, potentially extending its losses after some consolidation. However, it's worth noting that a shift in market sentiment could limit the upside potential and potentially favor a sharp correction. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is now approaching a series of resistance levels, particularly around the 1.0800 mark, where a reversal may occur. Based on this analysis, our recommendation is to consider a short setup.
by FOREXN1
18
EUR/USD Holds Steady around 1.0750 in Quiet Market ConditionsEUR/USD is maintaining a steady position near 1.0750 as it consolidates its pullback from Friday's movement in the early hours of Monday. The main currency pair is treading cautiously, influenced by a generally stronger US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields. Market activity remains subdued as investors brace themselves for upcoming events from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). EUR/USD kicked off the new week on a positive note, making gains beyond 1.0750 during the European trading session. While the technical outlook suggests the potential for further gains in the near future, investors may adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of key risk events scheduled for this week. The prevailing risk-on sentiment in the market is making it challenging for the US Dollar (USD) to attract significant demand at the start of the week, which is providing support to EUR/USD. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up nearly 1%, and US stock index futures are holding onto modest gains during the early European session. On Tuesday, the US will release May inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) anticipated to show a 4.2% year-on-year increase, significantly lower than the 4.9% rise recorded in April. The second half of the week will see increased volatility in financial markets as the Fed and ECB announce their respective policy decisions on Wednesday and Thursday. If Wall Street's main indexes gain bullish momentum after the market opens, the USD could remain under pressure, while a reversal could occur if the opposite scenario unfolds. However, without any high-impact macroeconomic data releases to impact the currency's valuation, the market is likely to focus on the central banks' announcements. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains within a bearish channel, approaching significant resistance levels that may prompt a potential downward move.
Short
by FOREXN1
17
GBP/JPY: Continuing Bullish Trend with Potential Swing Approach.The GBP/JPY currency pair has been maintaining its bullish trend across higher timeframes. In the past few hours, the price reached the area around 174.000, but this morning, it initiated the day with a red candle, indicating a retracement at the moment. It is important to note that the GBP/JPY has a strong correlation with the USD/JPY, and currently, we hold a bullish view on the latter. Following this correlation, we are also considering a potential bullish scenario for the GBP/JPY. Currently, the price is approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the previous swing in the H4 timeframe. Additionally, there is an AB=CD pattern formation in progress, with the D extension leg targeting around 175.100. Therefore, this becomes our target point for the swing approach strategy. Considering these factors, we anticipate further upward movement in the GBP/JPY, aligning with the overall bullish trend and the correlation with the USD/JPY. However, it is important to monitor the price action and market conditions closely for any potential changes or developments that may affect this scenario.
by FOREXN1
28
GOLD Price Struggles amid Absence of Fed Talks and Major DataGold Price (XAU/USD) struggles to maintain its bullish momentum as it retreats from its intraday high, signaling a bearish tilt for the precious metal in the second consecutive week. The sluggish performance of the US Dollar, coupled with an unimpressive market environment and mixed data from China, weighs on XAU/USD traders. Multiple hurdles hinder the prospects for gold buyers, particularly around the $1,970 level, as yields trickle lower. Despite the slight advantage held by gold bulls, the lack of clear direction in the market is evident, with the absence of Federal Reserve (Fed) discussions and a dearth of significant upcoming economic data. Furthermore, the conflicting signals arising from upbeat China PMI data and mixed foreign trade figures add to the uncertainty surrounding gold. Additionally, the recent increase in the US Treasury's bond issuance and cautious optimism surrounding China's economic outlook further challenge the bullish sentiment for gold. With no expectations of a rate hike from the June FOMC meeting, gold bulls face an uphill battle to maintain their position in the market.
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
24
AUD/USD's Sharp Recovery Despite Consolidation BreakdownThe AUD/USD is currently experiencing bullish momentum, and we are looking to capitalize on the next upward movement using a trend-following setup. However, in terms of fundamental analysis, the AUD/USD pair is facing difficulties in sustaining its current rally above 0.6680. This rally was initially sparked by the unexpected announcement of an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). RBA Governor Philip Lowe raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.10%, despite the fact that Australian inflation levels are significantly below the desired target. As a result, the policy divergence between the RBA and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has narrowed. The S&P500 futures are exhibiting a subdued performance, lacking any significant triggers. The overall market sentiment is cautious as investors hold differing opinions regarding the June monetary policy meeting by the Fed. After a decline driven by weaker-than-expected United States ISM Services PMI data, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has found some support around 103.80. Interestingly, the AUD/USD witnessed a strong recovery despite breaking down from its consolidation range of 0.6563-0.6808 on a daily basis. The lack of sustained selling pressure on the Australian dollar following the consolidation breakdown contributed to this notable rebound.
Long
by FOREXN1
24
GBP/AUD:AU GDP Growth Slows in Q1, Capital Expenditure Picks UpThe Australian AiG Construction Index for May registered a reading of -6.6, showing a slight improvement compared to the April figure of -12.4. Additionally, the AiG Manufacturing Index came in at -5.1, while the AiG Industry Index recorded -10.9. Comparatively, in April, the AiG Manufacturing Index was reported at -20.2, and the AiG Industry Index at -20.1. Turning to the Australian GDP for the first quarter, the growth rate stood at 0.2% on a quarterly basis and 2.3% on an annualized basis. Economists had anticipated a slightly higher increase of 0.3% and 2.4% respectively. In comparison, the GDP for the fourth quarter of the previous year had experienced a quarterly growth of 0.6% and an annualized growth of 2.6%. Furthermore, Capital Expenditure for the first quarter showed a quarterly increase of 1.8%, the Chain Price Index rose by 1.8% on a quarterly basis, and Final Consumption expanded by 0.2% quarterly. The economist's forecasts were for a decline of 5.6% in Capital Expenditure, a rise of 4.3% in the Chain Price Index, and an increase of 1.4% in Final Consumption. By comparison, during the fourth quarter, Capital Expenditure had decreased by 1.4% on a quarterly basis, the Chain Price Index had risen by 0.6% quarterly, and Final Consumption had expanded by 0.4% quarterly. Moving to China, the Trade Balance for May amounted to $65.81B, significantly below the economist's prediction of $92.00B. In April, the Trade Balance had recorded $90.21B. Exports for May experienced an annualized decline of 7.5%, while imports saw a decrease of 4.5%. These figures differed from the economist's forecast of a 0.4% decrease in exports and an 8.0% decrease in imports. Comparatively, in April, exports had surged by 8.5% annually, while imports had dropped by 7.9% annually. In the UK, the Halifax House Price Index for May remained flat with no change at 0.0% on a monthly basis and exhibited a decrease of 1.0% on a tri-monthly annualized basis. This reading aligned with economists' predictions of a flat monthly reading and a slightly smaller decrease of 0.9% on a tri-monthly annualized basis. Looking back to April, the Halifax House Price Index had contracted by 0.4% monthly and experienced a slight tri-monthly annualized increase of 0.1%.
Long
by FOREXN1
4
EUR/USD Slips Below 1.0700 as US Dollar Gains GroundEUR/USD slipped below the 1.0700 level during the early European morning, driven down by a strengthening US Dollar and a lackluster risk sentiment. The pair faced additional pressure from mixed German Industrial Production data. Market focus now turns to ECB-related announcements. Yesterday, the price broke the dynamic trendline of the bullish channel, invalidating the potential bullish impulse from the ABCD pattern and causing a renewed decline in bearish momentum. The next target to watch for is around the 1.06450 area and 1.06100. From a fundamental perspective, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with the possibility of another hike in July. While the June hike is already priced in, future decisions will depend on data outcomes. Recent economic figures reveal that retail sales in the Eurozone stalled in April, showing consumer caution with a 2.6% decline compared to the previous year. Additionally, Germany reported a weakening in April factory orders, down 0.4% month-on-month. The ECB's monthly survey indicated a decline in inflation expectations to 4.1% in April. On Wednesday, German industrial production data will be released. On Tuesday, the US Dollar experienced modest gains against other currencies as Wall Street saw a slight increase. Traders remain cautious ahead of a significant week, marked by a gloomy global outlook and expectations of higher interest rates. The Federal Reserve is currently in a media blackout period leading up to the next FOMC meeting. Analysts warn that the upcoming May Consumer Price Index, to be released next Tuesday, will play a crucial role in determining the outcome.
Short
by FOREXN1
17
EUR/JPY Outlook: Bears Defend Against Bullish Correction.In the current EUR/JPY price analysis, the bears are putting up a fight to prevent a bullish correction. The currency pair is facing downward pressure within a bearish framework when examining the hourly charts. A notable development is the formation of an AB=CD pattern, further confirming the bearish sentiment. This pattern is observed within a bearish channel, and the recent pullback from the 50% Fibonacci level, as depicted in the chart, adds to the bearish case. Moreover, a significant pattern known as the Head and Shoulders formation is taking shape. If the neckline of this pattern is breached, it would serve as an additional indication of a potential downward push. This breakout could potentially trigger further bearish momentum in the EUR/JPY exchange rate. Given these technical indicators, the analysis suggests a bearish setup for the EUR/JPY currency pair. The bears are actively trying to maintain control and prevent a bullish correction. Traders and investors should be vigilant for opportunities aligned with this bearish outlook.
by FOREXN1
21
GBP/CAD: Price Breaks Support, Eyes 1.6600 Area as Next TargetYesterday, the GBP/CAD experienced a notable decline, reaching a daily low of 1.6725 as the week drew to a close. This downward movement was primarily driven by robust labor market data from the United States, which hinted at the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) reevaluating its stance on further interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, the British Pound continued to face selling pressure, despite the absence of any significant economic events on the British calendar. The GBP/CAD currency pair is currently following a bearish trajectory within a bearish channel. The drop observed yesterday resulted in a break of the dynamic trendline, which had previously acted as a support and allowed the price to rise consistently over time. This breakdown suggests a shift towards a bearish outlook. Furthermore, the price action is forming an AB=CD pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. The maximum extension point of the D leg aligns with the 1.618% Fibonacci level, serving as the next target for the price around the 1.6600 area, where a support level is present. Consequently, we anticipate further short-term downward movement within the bearish channel. In summary, the GBP/CAD experienced a decline yesterday, reaching a daily low of 1.6725. This was influenced by strong labor market data from the US, potentially prompting the Fed to reconsider rate hikes. The British Pound faced selling pressure, despite the absence of notable economic events. The currency pair is currently following a bearish channel, with the recent breakdown of the dynamic trendline suggesting a bearish outlook. The price action indicates the formation of an AB=CD pattern, with the next target located around the 1.6600 area, where a support level exists. As a result, we expect a continuation of the short-term bearish movement within the channel.
by FOREXN1
28