NZDUSD Head and Shoulders pattern issues a sell signalThe NZDUSD pair is under the MA50 (4h) and about to complete a Head and Shoulders pattern.
A break under Support (1) would accelerate what is already a strong sell signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Use split lot. Sell half on the current market price and the rest if/ when the RSI hits its Resistance.
Targets:
1. 0.6100 (over Support 2).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) completed a bullish cross on the lowest level in the past month. This may delay the drop to Support (2) for a while but doesn't invalidate the pattern.
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Forexpairs
USDJPY: Very clear levels to trade.The USDJPY pair is inside an Ascending Triangle on the 1D timeframe, around the 1D MA50 and with the technicals basically neutral (RSI = 56.011, MACD = -0.010, ADX = 22.352). Our trading plan is simple. Sell on the 1D MA200 and target the HL of the Triangle (TO = 132.000). Buy above the R1 and target the R2 (TP = 142.250). If we close under the HL of the Triangle, sell and target the S1 (TP = 127.300). Below the S1 target the S2 (TP = 122.000).
Prior idea:
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EURAUD: Buy the pull backThe EURAUD pair is on a Double Channel Up pattern, supported by the 4H MA50 with the 4h technicals indicating a smooth uptrend (RSI = 64.590, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 25.499). The 4H RSI being under an LH trendline suggests that soon we will see a short term pullback similar to March 12th and March 30th. We are buying the contact with the 4H MA200 and aim at a 2.30% rise (TP = 1.65450).
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EURUSD: Head and Shoulders targeting 1.07500 before a new rebounThe EURUSD pair is in the process of completing a Head and Shoulders pattern with the 4H technicals neutral (RSI = 51.260, MACD = 0.000, ADX = 33.876) on the Right Shoulder. The 4H RSI is under an HL trendline, which keeps it bearish short term, while having crossed under its HL trendline yesterday.
The target of the Head and Shoulders can go as low as the 2.0 Fibonacci (1.0700), but since the 1D MA50 and 4H MA200 are both around 1.07500, we are aiming at this as the sell target and subsequently buy entry. Long term TP = 1.10350.
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EURGBP Bullish signalEURGBP is trading inside a Triangle with its bottom being Support (1).
This Support held on April 4th and the pair is rebounding.
Today's pullback gives another buy opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy for as long as the price is closing over Support (1).
Targets:
1. 0.88225 (under the MA50 (1d) and within a +1.10% rise and Fibonacci 0.382). Each of the Triangle's previous Highs broke over a Fibonacci level.
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is under a 2 month Falling Support. Keep an eye for the long term. A crossing over it, may signal a long term bullish breakout over the Triangle.
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GBPAUD Buy the next pullback.The GBPAUD pair is on overbought 1D technicals (RSI = 70.497, MACD = 0.019, ADX = 49.220) with the price also close to the HH trendline of the past 9 months. We are buying the next pullback towards the S1 Zone and the 1D MA50, targeting R1 (TI = 1.9200).
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AUDNZD: Rejected on the long term Pivot. Bearish.The AUDNZD pair is technically bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 42.033, MACD = -0.005, ADX = 29.502), trading under the P1 Zone, which has been in place since 2021. It is under both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 and it targeting the HL trendline (TP = 1.05300). If the dashed LH trendline breaks, we will buy aiming at R1 (TP = 1.10800).
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NZDJPY: High upside potential.The NZDJPY pair is on a neutral technical price action on the 1D time frame (RSI = 51.078, MACD = -0.120, ADX = 32.313) as it reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level and 1D MA50 yesterday. This is the middle level of the long-term trading range inside the S1 and R1 Zones since April 20th 2022. So essentially this pair has been trading sideways for almost 1 year.
Since the price recently rebounded (March 24th) at the top of the S1 Zone, we take this as a solid buy opportunity to target Fibonacci 0.786 (TP = 86.300).
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CADJPY: Mixed patterns. Trade these levels only.CADJPY is trading inside a Channel Down pattern with the 1D technicals neutral (RSI = 51.739, MACD = -0.070, ADX = 39.994). Right noe the price is on the 1D MA50 and is bearish within the Channel Down targeting for its bottom (TP = 94.250).
In spite of that, with a 1D RSI on HL and last time the price was on the 1D MA50 from a leg up, extending to the top of the Channel Down, we might see the emergence of a Channel Up targeting the 1D MA200. As a result, if we see a break over today's High, we will buy and target firstly Fibonacci 0.382 (TP = 100.400) and secondly Fibonacci 0.5 and the 1D MA200 (TP = 102.000).
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AUDCAD: Selling is the best option on this Channel Down.AUDCAD is trading inside a Channel Down pattern with the 1D technicals bearish (RSI = 43.171, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 38.042). Even though the long term pattern is bearish, the rebound yesterday and closing over the 1D MA200 can be a bullish signal along with the HL that the RSI is on (bullish divergence). However until the 1D MA50 breaks, we cannot call for any upward movement on the long term.
We remain sellers on this pair, targeting S2 (TP = 0.89500).
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Price on the EUR/USD is likely to break the 1.05 lvlThe EUR/USD is pushing lower because of Friday's USD PCE coming out higher then expected, and the previous reading revised higher. This is supposedly the FED's favorite measure of inflation, which gives the FED additional evidence to increase rate hikes. I do not think that the FED will be inclined to raise rates in the March meeting by 50 basis points. It will likely stick to 25 basis points. I am holding onto my positions (short side) and I am looking to place a stop at the 1.06 lvl. If price does break 1.05 (which is likely), price will be able to test out the 1.0450 lvl. At this point, I am deciding on whether I want to keep holding or not because I have other pairs I am looking at.
EURUSD Buy on this Triple Bottom pressure.EURUSD is rising after a Triple Bottom on Support (1).
The RSI (1d) is on a Rising Support indicating a strong bullish divergence. Expect the pair to go much higher once the recent fundamentals are neutralized.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.07800 (inside the liquidity zone)
Tips:
1. The MA100 (1d) is providing Support. Yesterday's and today's candles have closed above it.
2. The MA50 (1d) is the Pivot separating the Feb-March selling pressure from January's rally.
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EURUSD: 1D MA50 closing is critical. See our trading plan.We took a bold buy last week on the 1D MA100 against popular sentiment as we didn't just see this as a long term Support but also the HL trend line. The price is now back above the 1D MA50 and its closing is key as 1D turned green again (RSI = 56.889, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 28.193) and above it targets not only R2 (1.08050) but also the HH trend-line).
Be patient with this rise and once the 1D RSI hits the 65.000 - 70.000 zone, we expect a pull back to former R1 (1.06950). That will be our new long position (TP = 1.08500).
P.S. Last week's buy:
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EURCHF: Hit the 4 month Support. Potential rise.The EURCHF pair hit today S1 (0.97250), which is a Support level holding for exactly 4 months, turning the 1D technicals bearish (RSI = 34.341, MACD = -0.003, ADX = 35.665). The strong rebound that has followed intra day as well as the RSI approaching the 30.000 oversold limit, is enough to make us go long after some time on this pair. TP = 0.99500, which is under the LH trend-line of the multi year Falling Megaphone pattern.
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EURUSD on a V-shaped recoveryEURUSD smashed through and closed over its MA50 (4h) with easy, extending today the gains.
Potentially a new Channel Up is being formed, though not necessary it can contain a strong rise.
Fibonacci 0.5 already filled.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy within the MA50 (4h) and MA50 (1h) Zone.
Targets:
1. 1.0720 (over Fibonacci 0.618 and potentially on the MA50 (1d) and MA 200 (4h).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) just turned neutral indicating possibly that there is a lot of upside remaining on this move.
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EURUSD Channel Up transitioning into Inverse Head and Shoulders.EURUSD is trading in a 2 month Channel Up. The major impulse rises have been +/- 3.90%.
Since Dec 14th we see a structure reminding of an Inverse Head and Shoulders.
Trading Plan:
1. Wait (or sell) for the price to pull back and test the MA50 1D.
2. Buy if it breaks the Jan 18th high earlier.
Targets:
1. 1.1000
2. 1.1300
Tips:
During uptrends, best risk management is to enter then the RSI 1D is at or below 50.00.
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USD/JPY -19/01/2023-• Descending bearish channel in play
• Sellers got the upper hand
• First bearish sign is the breakout below the ascending channel which was there since March 22
• Second bearish signal is the death cross of the 200 Day MA above the 50 Day MA
• Next bearish target is 126.40 followed by 125.10
• Resistance at 135.10
EURUSD Near the top of the ChannelEURUSD on the 1D chart is bullish but not overbought (RSI = 65.968, MACD = 0.009, ADX = 48.178) contrary to what many would believe because of its continuous rise since the September bottom. Within the Channel Up pattern it has formed, it is however near the top of the pattern and with the 1D RSI on a bearish divergence, it is technically more probable to witness it retrace back to the 1D MA50.
That is the trade within the Channel Up, which is the principal pattern on the chart. Above it, the price becomes increasingly bullish and can climb on the momentul towards the 1.11850 Resistance until it becomes overbought. Equally below the Channel Up and the 1D MA50, the price will seek the support of the 1D MA200 as a last resort.
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gbpjpy GJ short term bullish but overall we are bearish .
now I'm waiting for 162.500 to be breaks beceause it psychological level 16.500.
we may see a break for this area than a retest for the resistance if we will be respecting the break for the resistance @162.500 and the 0.382 fib level we may see the 164.400 area at @0.61 fib level .
after the reversal I will be shorting from 164.400 for a continuation for the bearish trend util we reach again 160.400 .
USDCAD Short Looking for shorts on USDCAD. Looks like the price is approaching the resistance area previously a support area. If price resists crossing the resistance area (trendline and horizontal resistance) I'll be talking shorts assuming that the price will continue going down. Patiently waiting for good reversal signals.
Forex Pairs Correlation: Avoiding Contradictory TradesHello, in this post I will be talking about Forex Pair Correlations. A problem new traders frequently find themselves in is opening/having positions that are contradictory. I will elaborate on that but for now, let's understand first what correlation is. A correlation is a statistical relationship which means that when A moves a certain way, B will move a certain way. The stronger the correlation, the more likely that the price will move along with each other/opposite of each other. There are 2 types of correlation; Positive correlation which is A and B will move together, and negative correlation which is A and B will move opposite of each other. Now that we understand what correlations are, I can address the problem that new traders have. Contradictory positions: For example, having a long position in GPBUSD and a short position in GBPJPY is contradictory since these 2 pair has a 87.5% correlation which means 87.5% of the time, it will move together. As you can see in the graph, when the GPBUSD (Blue) moves up, GBPJPY (Orange) moves up and vice versa. This applies to moving down as well. GBPUSD (Blue) and AUDNZD (Yellow) is an example of a negative correlation (-69.7%). My recommendation to avoid having these problems is if you do not yet have an understanding of which pairs will move up and down together, check this website: www.myfxbook.com This website will show you every pair and its correlation. Of course, there are some exceptions to when contradictory trades are fine like when hedging against each other or when 1 trade is short-term/intraday/scalping, looking at the smaller trends and the other one is swing trading/position trading looking at the bigger trend. However, I do not recommend new traders to hold/open contradictory trades until they have some confidence in what they are doing.
Main points:
1. A correlation is a statistical relationship which means that when A moves a certain way, B will move a certain way.
2. Positive relationship = Pairs will move the same way.
3. Negative relationship = Pairs will move the opposite way.
4. New traders should avoid contradictory trades.
5. Website for checking correlations: www.myfxbook.com
Please give a thumbs up if you agree with the educational post and if there are any questions, feel free to comment down below.