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Forexpeacearmy

GBPJPY SURELY FALL 1. Resistance Break Possibility The analysis suggests a rejection at resistance (191.878) leading to a drop. However, price could break above resistance, triggering stop-loss orders and fueling a bullish rally. Instead of a reversal, watch for a liquidity grab above resistance before deciding on direction. 2. Support Area Failure Risk The support zone (near 189.000) is assumed to hold, but if market momentum is strong, price could break through, leading to further downside. Instead of assuming a bounce, consider monitoring for confirmation before entering long trades. 3. Bullish Trend Continuation Possibility Price recently made a strong move upwards, suggesting buyers are active. The expected rejection at resistance may fail, leading to a higher breakout instead of a reversal. The small consolidation near 190.296 could indicate accumulation for a bullish continuation. 4. Alternative Scenarios Instead of dropping immediately, price may range between 190.762 and 191.878 before a strong move in either direction.
Long
by Fx_Oliviaa
3
Another attempt for the 101-102K bounceMorning folks, So market stands in the narrow range for the 3rd week already and not leaving hopes to show the bounce up to 101-102K area. Last attempt (in the way of cup pattern that we've discussed last time) has failed. We don't care about it because mostly stay focused on weekly bearish DRPO pattern. Thus, any bounce here we consider first as a chance to Sell. And only second as a possible upside continuation. For now BTC is trying to make an another attempt and form reverse H&S pattern on 1H chart. So target remains the same 101-102K. We have no intention to go long right now. But, if you trade intraday or just search chances to buy - maybe be this setup might be useful to you. Supposedly 96K is an area where decision on position taking has to be made. I keep the "bearish" mark for this setup. But, as now as last time - the bounce to 101-102K area are not excluded.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Bearish context holds. Pullback to 101-102KMorning folks, A recent few sessions have rather narrow range, so we have little changes since our last discussion. We have confirmed DRPO "Sell" pattern on weekly chart, so we keep bearish general view on BTC, with potential downside target around 80-81K. This also makes us to not consider any long positions. If even upside bounce will happen - we try to use this rally for short entry later. Still for intraday traders, if you want to buy BTC, here is some thoughts. First is, and actually why we stay away from longs for now - take a look, after impressive jump BTC stands too long in sideways action. This is not good for bullish scenario. Now it seems that something like "Cup" or reverse H&S pattern is still forming here. So if you finally will decide to buy - currently is the point where you have to make a decision on entry. Because BTC has to start upside action right now, right from this point or it will not start it at all and drop. We suggest that 101-102K is an area where it would be better to out. I mark this update as bearish in a row with our major view, but as we've said 101-102 pullback is not excluded.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
No longs by far. 90-92K stands in focusMorning folks, Last time we were speaking about possible upside bounce to ~102.5K area. But BTC has failed three attempts to move out from support level where it stands. Despite that upside momentum was not bad. With the recent high CPI on the table and weekly DRPO "Sell" pattern on the back, we suggest that downside action could start at any time. First target will be ~90-92K area just because this is daily oversold. Weekly pattern suggest target around 80-81K. By this reason we do not consider any new intraday longs by far. Besides, on daily chart today we could get bearish grabber that supports adea of 90-92K lows level.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Tricks around 102.4K targetMorning folks, So, our weekly bearish DRPO "Sell" pattern has been confirmed. It means that until market either complete its 81K target or remains under 102.5K its invalidation point - this pattern presents the risk for the bulls. With all this stuff on the table we make two decisions. First is - we cut potential upside target down to 102.4K area by two reasons. First - this is 0.618 expansion and it agrees with major 5/8 resistance level. Second - this is invalidation point of weekly DRPO "Sell" pattern. So, conclusion is follows. For long-term traders we suggest to not consider any new long positions until DRPO is valid. For short entry with DRPO - keep an eye on 102.5K area. For intraday traders we suggest that long position is still acceptable but with the new 102.4K target and very tight stop - just under 94K lows. Market has to start upside action now. If it will not happen, then it will not happen at all and weekly DRPO will start working. I mark this setup as "Bullish" because of 102.4 target. But, in general we have bearish view until DRPO stands in place.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
107.60KMorning folks, So, BTC has shown the pullback that we've discussed, but it was even stronger. Thus, we had have to postpone our plans for short entry. Besides, now situation stands so that our weekly pattern (DRPO "Sell") might not be confirmed this week. To keep it simple - no new shorts by far. For now we focus only on intraday setups. For example, on 4H chart. If we could to use 8H or 10H chart instead, then we could see nice big bullish engulfing pattern. As usual it has AB=CD upside target, which is around 107.5K for now. "C" point lows seems to be a vital area for this setup, just because this is 5/8 support and breakout of 95K level will change everything here. So, decision on entry has to be made fast, while price is not too far from vital area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Watching for 98.2K resistance for short entryMorning folks, So, this week / our DRPO "Sell" pattern is one step closer to confirmation and has a good chances to start working this week. Meantime, due to weekend collapse BTC now is overextended. The problem is not about BTC itself but in jump of the USD, triggered by Donny's tariffs. We suggest to get technical rally, back to ~98.2K resistance area and consider short entry there if DRPO still will be OK. If DRPO will be confirmed this week, its target stands around 81K support area. So, it is worthy to pay attention to...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Postpone shorts for awhileMorning folks, So, the pullback that we've discussed last time is done and even slightly more extended, in a way of AB=CD . By our previous plan, somewhere around we should start thinking about the short entry. So, is it time? We think it is not quite yet. And the reason stands with the pattern that now is forming on weekly chart - bullish grabber. This pattern suggests the challenge of the top again in any way. Does it mean that the bearish scenario, especially our DRPO "Sell" pattern has totally failed. Not quite. The test of the top might be fast, just in a way of spike. In this case bearish setup will stand. But this will be later. For now - we consider no shorts, at least on daily/weekly charts. On intraday charts, since we have "222" Sell, right, scalp traders could consider shorts for a few hours with very close target - around 103K. But this is not our primary scenario so far. So, to be absolutely sure with this, let's wait for weekly close price to understand do we really get the grabber on weekly TF or not...
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Bearish adventure startsMorning folks, So, here we go... downside action starts as we've discussed last time. On weekly chart we still wait for confirmation in a way of price close below 3x3 DMA. While on a daily one price hits oversold level. Those who know about this - we have DiNapoli bullish "Stretch" pattern for now, suggesting the pullback. That's why we do not consider immediate short entry. Our 4H Diamond has worked just perfect. So everything goes absolutely fine. For now we consider no longs on daily/weekly basis and waiting for the bounce, supposedly to ~102.20K area. Scalp traders on 1H TF and below could consider scalp long position with the same target. I mark this setup as bullish because of this pullback. But, in general we keep bearish view...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
3
Downside potential is 81KMorning folks, So, our bearish ideas seem to be correct last time... Now we think that weekly TF is most perspective for BTC, because here we could get DiNapoli DRPO "Sell". First signs are already here, but for final confirmation we need close below MA line. Meantime, on intraday charts, BTC is forming the Diamond consolidation , and on the same weekly one we have "Shooting star" on top. So, if you would like to go short earlier, you could use both pattern with the stops against the recent top. Conservative traders could wait for confirmation of the pattern still. We consider no longs by far.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Hi chances on reversalMorning folks, So, by introducing $Trump Token, old Donny has put the start of global US Dollar devaluation. And Melania probably will add today... All our short-term targets are done - weekly grabbers and H&S failure has worked fine, BTC has challenged the top of 108K. We consider this action as hype and emotional. Mostly due euphoria around D. Trump inauguration. Due to oversold on Monthly and Daily time frames, chances on reversal are significant. So we intend to watch for DRPO "Sell" pattern on weekly chart. Still, Donny could tell us a lot today, and madness could continue a little bit. We do not exclude that BTC could try to reach nearest upside extension around 113.5K before reversal starts. We do not call right now for taking short positions, let's see what will be on Thu, prefer to wait for patterns and signs for reversal first. But we call to consider long positions close or, at least tight stops around them. Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Back to 108K ?Welcome back folks, Only on Thu we talked about bearish scenario and 85K target and now we have to turn everything from top to bottom. Not occasionally on Thu we warned about weekly bullish grabber pattern and called to not take any fresh shorts, but keep existed ones. What's now? Now our H&S stands in a process of failure, which means price has good chances to go back to 108K top, is failure will be confirmed. Besides, on weekly chart we could get 2nd grabber in a row if BTC will close slightly higher. Price was not able to break the neck line, and just got the stops there. It means that currently we do not consider any shorts. For long entry we could use intraday Fib levels. First one is 96.35K And see what will happen next.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
On the way to 85.5KMorning folks, So, both our entries worked fine - as on the top of the right arm as on recent pullback to 96k area. Now there are two moments that you have to know. First is, the risk factor. It comes from weekly bullish grabber pattern , suggesting upside jump above 108K top. But the problem with it is unclear reasons for this jump. Because fundamental picture for now doesn't support any upside action on BTC. First is, dollar and yields are going higher. Second and what is even more important - the new debt ceil act is not taken yet. We have only temporal act on postponing of this decision. It means that until it will be taken, the US Treasury has to save. And they do - spending cash from their Fed deposit. It means that liquidity for some time will remain narrow, which is bad for BTC and Stock market performance. Since both our entries are safe already and protected with breakeven stops, we could relax a bit and keep our eyes on 85.5K downside H&S target. If you still would like to go short- you should understand the risk that you take, because your stop now will be above 96K area. And with potential weekly bullish pattern on the back. Those who have an opposite view on situation and want to buy instead - the weekly pattern is the great one that you could try to use. If price will drop under 91K area, it will mean the failure of this idea.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Missed 101.5K sell? Don't worryMorning folks, So, our H&S has started perfect. Right from the area that we've discussed last time - Agreement of Fib resistance and our XOP target on 4H chart, where the top of right arm should be formed. Obviously now we consider no longs by far. H&S target stands around 85.5K - in the middle of wide K-support area of 82-89K. If you missed entry around 101K, we could get 2nd chance around 96-96.5K, but do not expect too extended pullback. Price is at the slope of the shoulder, naturally this is not the moment for deep upside pullbacks. I would say that deep retracement, back to 100K would be unwelcome sign, suggesting weakness of the bears.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Big test for BTCMorning folks, So, we're almost there - 100.5K area that we've discussed last time. BTC is almost completed the predefined XOP extension. Why this level is so important. Because it determines the results of H&S daily pattern - whether it will work or fail: Correspondingly, it tells where BTC will go - either back to the 108K top (or even higher) or starts deeper retracement to ~82-87K area. Besides, it is important to us because we have to make a decision on short position taking. Here we also could use 1H potential H&S pattern, with 99K area of the right arm and potential level for decision making. This is just to not risk too much. So, watching for completion of XOP, then 1H H&S - if everything goes as it should, thinking about short entry. If not - then start watching North.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Doubts are confirmed. Watching for 100.5KMorning folks, Last time we decided to take a pause, because too weak performance on supposedly bearish market has confused us. Now our doubts are confirmed, indeed the action that we see now is not typical and natural for bearish market. It is too wobble and slow. This is not the way how bearish market normally moves. It doesn't mean that potentially bearish scenario and deeper retracement are cancelled totally. It means that they could start with different patterns. Thus, on daily we're watching for something like this, although do not exclude that it might be Double Top later as well: Since the shoulder stands around ~100.5K, we do not consider any shorts until it will be reached. 1H chart shows upside AB-CD with the same extension target. We consider no longs.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement will be deeper but what pattern will trigger it?Greetings everybody, So, our H&S behaves well by far, but now the degree of uncertainty is raising. As you could see on the chart downside action is slowing. What is it? Thin Xmas market or the bearish pressure is becoming weaker? Long-term charts - monthly, weekly show that deeper retracement has high chances to happen in nearest 1-2 months. The problem is, it is difficult to estimate what particular pattern will trigger it. If market will keep going lower - it could be our H&S. But what if we will get the different one instead? Something like this on daily: That's why, if you have shorts - you could keep it, just manage your stops. But for now we take the pause with the new shorts. We do not consider longs as well, because the major context is down. Hopefully after NY we will get more clarity on this subject.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Perfect startMorning folks, Hopefully you had a great Xmas time... Today we do not have a lot to comment. Our view we've explained in previous update Setup has started just perfect. Once upside AB-CD was done, the H&S starts. Now we consider two points - 89.5-90K, mostly because of Fib support and oversold on daily chart [ /b] And the major one around 82K as a H&S downside target. 10-year yields are keep climbing with 4.75% target by our view. So the pressure on all dollar rivals will remain for some time. Thus, no longs, if you've missed entry on top, no problems, you could try to step in on minor intraday pullback.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Bullish tendency is broken 101-102K for sellingMorning folks, So, BTC was not able to stay above predefined support area and drop right back to the daily 92-95K level. It means that existing bullish context on daily chart is done. In general, this is reasonable - we're going to the Xmas Holidays and inauguration. There are a lot of uncertainty with coming D. Trump policy. Especially when JPowell said that the Fed doesn't intend to own any BTC... so inner conflict is ready. So, retracement might be deeper in nearest month. Since BTC is overextended down a bit, the first thing we expect upside technical bounce, somewhere to 101-102K area. Then, if we're correct in our analysis, downside reversal should happen with potential H&S pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
105K for possible short entryMorning folks, So, BTC just perfectly completed our setup for this week, turning down precisely around 107.80K, where as butterfly as H&S pattern targets were completed and falling down to predefined 98-98.5K area... Now what? Daily trend has turned bearish, so, nominally we have no reasons for longs at least on daily chart. And should wait for the bounce to resistance levels. Now 105K seems potentially interesting for short entry, if BTC will hold bearish trend. On intraday chart current 98-98.5 Lows in fact is a last hope for the bulls. This is K-support area, trend line support. SO tactical bounce should happen here, and it is already underway. Thus, for intraday traders, this level might be interesting for scalp long position. Those who would like to sell should wait for the same upside bounce. And, some resistance area, say 105K. If BTC will keep going higher, then forget about shorts for some time. So, daily traders should wait...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten