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Forexpeacearmy

Bullish wild card Morning folks, Well, technical picture, no doubts, stands bearish. We've warned you about it within recent few weeks, and since the beginning of 2022 in a scale of monthly and weekly time frames. Now, if we wouldn't have CPI and Fed I would call for short entry. But, due coming important data we need to wait and get more confirmation. At the same time, CPI and Fed could provide the "wild card" if CPI will be weak and Fed will be dovish. In this case all markets across the board could show short-term action, and it could be more or less strong. That's why we show you all scenarios that potentially you could follow, depending on your view. First is a bullish "wild card' Scenario. You could consider this butterfly with placing stop just under its lows. Target might be either 17.7, or even XOP target around 18.2K. Features of this trade are - low chances on success, but low potential loss and huge reward if "wild card" will be given. Second is bears - you need to keep an eye on 16.5-16.6K support and its downside break. Once it will happen, it is possible to consider short entry. Theoretically you could use Stop "Sell" entry order somewhere under 16.5K. Finally, you could combine both scenarios.... if you brave enough ;)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
8
16.5-16.6K area is vitalMorning folks, BTC looks weak. Maybe coming PPI numbers tomorrow and CPI + Fed on Tue could support market in short-term, but data release can't change the fundamental background that is vitally hurt by FTX tragedy. Confidence in crypto market is lost now. Speaking about our technical setup - market has failed to stay above 17060 level that was crucial for the bulls, we've discussed it last time. Now we see signs of weakness and think that there are few chances on upside continuation. In fact, if 16.5-16.6K level will be broken - price starts action back to 15.5K lows first and even lower in longer perspective. So, if you would like to take the short position - watch for downside breakout of this level. We do not see good context for long entry now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
17.6-17.7 K seems the ceil nowMorning folks, So, let's keep going with our reverse H&S and its targets. As we've said, the first one was hit last week. Once OP is done, BTC has formed minor triangle consolidation which is broken up now. Next H&S target is XOP around 18.15K. But the problem is 17.5-17.7K strong resistance area, that includes Fib level and previous daily lows. As you know we're skeptic on any upside action on BTC and have not taken longs since the beginning of 2022. And we're not going to do it now, although it could climb a bit more. Mostly we're considering 17.6-18.15K area as potential for selling. Before major reversal happens, all markets could climb a bit higher - EUR (to 1.0595-1.0610), Gold (to ~1825) but everywhere, the background for reversal is growing. So the same on BTC. If you still would like to buy - you could consider 17.15K Fib support and keep an eye on 16.95K area - market should not break it down. If it will - the bullish party probably is over.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
18-18.2KMorning folks, So, our 1H H&S pattern that we've discussed last time is started well. In fact, as all other markets, BTC has got the same boost from J. Powell. Since this is external factor, hardly it will last too long. But positive NFP numbers should let BTC to complete 18-18.2K extended AB-CD target. Once this will be completed, BTC hits strong daily resistance area, that hardly will be broken as overall sentiment remains negative here. We sure that markets wrongly understand Fed comments, accepting what they want to hear but ignoring all the other information. Our suggest that Fed slows the pace of rate hike because it is frightened with possible disaster consequences but not because inflation is defeated and the US economy is returning back to growth. Absolutely not, but particularly in this way markets understand the recent comments. That's being said, we suggest that BTC could climb slightly higher, but hardly it will break 18-18.5 resistance area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
15.95-15.97KMorning folks, Last time we've discussed this H&S pattern, it was just on a starting stage. Now it is almost completed. You know our position, we're skeptic on any bullish performance as there are now fundamental background for it. And we mostly are watching for this H&S failure. But... those who have bullish view, could consider 15.95-15.97 support area, where the lows of right arm are likely to be formed. This is Agreement of downside 1.618 AB-CD pattern and major 5/8 support. This area doesn't guarantee you success, but definitely it gives you minimal potential loss as you could hide your stop very close. Bears should watch for downside breakout of this area. And, somewhere around 15.55-15.6K it is possible to consider using of Stop "Sell" entry orders.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Skeptic on bullish potentialMorning folks, BTC is taking pause and delays downside action to 14.8 and 13K target due to external factors. Mostly due to short-term dollar weakness that we suggest should last until the end of November. We keep valid mentioned targets and think that they will be completed, but a bit later than we initially thought. We're skeptic on any bullish performance on BTC and do not intend to take the long position. If BTC appears to be strong enough, it could try to complete this reversed H&S pattern with ~17.5-17.8K target. So, the choice is up to you whether to trade it or not. We intend to use it for short entry at better price, if it still will reach the target.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
16-16.1K is a vital areaMorning folks, BTC performance looks weak, price is forming triangle consolidation after solid drop, which has more chances on downside continuation. Last time we have considered long entry on a pullback, and in general setup has worked nice. If you still keep longs - move stops to breakeven. If you do not have longs - do not take it by far. BTC could show minor upward action, and maybe re-test 17K area, but we're skeptic of extended bullish performance. Usually upward trend looks different. For the bears - watch for 16-16.1K support area. Downside breakout will be the vital point of short-term tendency turn into bearish and puts odds in favor of downside triangle breakout.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
18.5K pullback is possible nowMorning folks, Long term sentiment and context remains bearish. FTX accident now is coming from just corporate finance topic into political and corruption scandal. Its echo will sound for a long time and many delicate nuances could come on a surface. The major result is losing of the confidence of investors into crypto. Still, on a background of short-term dollar weakness and rally on other markets, BTC could try to make deeper upside bounce. Supposedly it could 18.5K resistance area and AB-CD upside target. See the chart. Thus, we could say, it is nothing to do for the bears by far, just watch what will happen with this pullback. Long-term bulls also have nothing to do. Scalp traders could consider position taking with 18.5K target. But watch the 15.8K lows - it is vital area. If BTC breaks it down this bullish scenario fails.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
17.5 then 12.8K?Morning folks, BTC once again confirms our long-term view. Those who read our fundamental reports do not buy BTC. Of course we can't foresee the reasons why it happens, but even fundamental background stands against long-term investment in crypto currencies. Thus, our 16.5K target is done, which is also 1.27 extension of daily/weekly butterfly. Since BTC is not oversold and it has no solid support levels, now we see short-term pause due to speculators' booking. Supposedly retracement could reach 17.5-17.8 Fib resistance area and re-test broken consolidation border. Our next target is 12.5-12.8K, which is major weekly AB=CD target and butterfly 1.618 extension (not shown here). Take care, S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
21.15K seems to be vtialMorning folks, BTC mostly stands in the same area, but still was able to complete our intraday XOP target around 21.6. Now it is not good idea to forecast something, as we should get elections result and CPI numbers, but, based on technical picture, it seems, the top of right arm, around 21.15K will be vital for both sides. If H&S starts to work, BTC will go to the daily lows, and potentially lower. Conversely, H&S Failure and move above the top of right arm shold open road for higher upward action. Correspondingly, bears could watch for minor bearish patterns on 15 min chart around 21.15K area to consider short entry and stop placement, while bulls should wait for the opposite - upside action back to the head's top will become a signal for position taking.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Fed puts bearish backgroundMorning folks, So, the Fed decision should not become a surprise for those who read our BTC fundamental reports. In last two weeks we've spent time for in-depth analysis to whether Fed stands near the pivot or not. And have come to conclusion that Fed remains tight, terminal rate should increase 4.5-4.75% widely anticipated level and move above 5%. Recent Fed statement was hawkish and puts bearish background for BTC market. BTC shows weaker reaction compares FX and gold market mostly because it has lost 60% of its capitalization and rest speculators have not enough funds to trigger big moves. Now, despite BTC stands by far above 20K area, we do not consider taking any new long positions and suggests that advantage stands on a bears' side. P.S. NFP also hardly makes impact on market performance. Because, indirectly, due to the Fed's tone, we could suggest that NFP numbers should somewhere around expectations.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
20K is VitalMorning folks, So, BTC has started nice with upside breakout of the range, re-tested the border. But now it can't proceed higher to 20.6K target. Although, if it is really bullish, it should to. The reason for that is the Fed - they start more actively contract the ballance sheet trying to come up with the promised values of bonds' sell of. Thus, last week finally 20 Bln in MBS have been sold. Now QT plan is completed for ~65%, but they are accelerating. You know our bearish view on BTC. Fed is no near the pivot yet. Technical picture shows that bullish context is becoming weaker. Maybe some external drivers, such as Fed comments or NFP data this week could push it higher to complete 20.6K, but as it stands right now - I'm not fascinating with taking the long position. We suggest that 20K lows are vital here. Downside breakout could be treated as a signals to step in for the bears.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Intervention injectionMorning folks, All markets in general and BTC in particular have got a liquidity injections due massive interventions by PBoC, BoJ and SNB in recent 2-3 sessions. This factor intrudes technical picture and has turned it bullish. Still, we think that it is not reliable and could easy go as easy it has come. Thus, we treat current action as technical pullback. Here we have to watch for two moments. First is nearest upside target is 21.5-21.6K that could be reached. Second - market now stands at resistance. If BTC fails to break it, and returns back in consolidation - do not take long position.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
IndecisionMorning folks, Market obviously stands indecision. Fundamental background remains bad but technical liquidity support from the Fed and pre-election rally distorts the picture. This lets BTC stands on the surface but at the same time it has not inner power to accelerate higher. Currently, we do not see any good trading setups, but on longer term charts we keep our bearish view and suggest that downside breakout of daily consolidation in just a question of time. Here, on 1H chart we have triangle consolidation with potential fake upward breakout. The Friday's rally is mostly erased, so, let's keep watching. For intraday trading you could try to catch "222" patterns inside the consolidation on 4H chart. Now we do not have any. Still we think that bears have more chances to succeed...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
sudden support disappearsMorning folks, Jump on all markets after CPI report was total shock for market society, at least based on the multiple comments. It has come from Fed minutes that have shown different opinions among the members on the future rate hike's pace. Second, the US banks have sent clear signal to Fed that with this rate pace they could get problems as with earnings as with default provisions. The bounce on BTC also happened, but it was as strong. We haven't got downside range breakout, but price remains inside the range, and we suggest that downside breakout is a question of time. Since we've got daily bearish grabber, we do not consider long positions by far. Bears, if would like to, could think about position taking around 5/8 19.5K resistance. Potentially downside action could take a shape of the butterfly, with initial target @ 17.6 Invalidation point of this stuff is above 20K top.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
16.5K?Morning folks, Overall situation on financial markets is far from positive. UK Bond market has collapsed and nobody knows what end will it have. J. Yellen speaks on liquidity shorts on Treasury Bills market. PPI was two times greater than expected yesterday. With such environment, whatever CPI we will get today, hardly it will reverse BTC market up. Thus, we do not consider long position now. Since market has failed to break consolidation up - most logical way is to attempt to break it down. If it will be successful, BTC could reach 16.5K level. We do not see any bearish continuation patterns inside the range. So you could wait for them, or use Stop "Sell" entry order near the low border of consolidation. If you want to sell of course.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
19.70-19.75 looks nice for shortMorning folks, Recent NFP data and following hawkish comments from Fed members give small chances to stock and BTC markets to show any kind of upside performance. Fed last week finally seriously started QT and cut the balance for $200 Bln, drying more liquidity out of the market. This week we also expect the bumpy ride with CPI, Fed minutes and retail sales releases. Thus, in current circumstances, as BTC has failed to complete even minor upside target last week, we suggest that 1H chart 19.70-19.75 resistance might be considered for short entry with potential downside continuation back to daily lows. If, of course, this upside bounce happens at all...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
20.6-21K seems OK for shortMorning folks, Fed has opened liquidity box, trying to calm down markets, households before US elections, and making the image that everything is becoming well, situation is normalizing, markets start rising. This is short-term performance for just 3-4 weeks, until elections take place. Then, everything should collapse. Anyway, within these weeks, BTC could climb slightly higher, following other markets, although BTC lags solidly behind stock market performance by far. In very short-term (tod-tom) we consider 20.6-21K resistance area as interesting for taking short position. we could get "222" Sell precisely at the trendline resistance. Besides, we have multiple targets on intraday chart in this area. Thus, downside bounce, especially if NFP will be more or less positive, is possible.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
20.25K looks interesting for entryMorning folks, Markets finally get tactical relief and show pullback across the board - Dollar Index, EUR, GBP etc., everything is bouncing. But what is BTC? It is not. Flat action, any attempt to show the bounce sells off fast. This makes us think on existence of bearish pressure. As a target we consider daily AB-CD with 16.20K destination point. Market has set the new lows on daily chart, so we can't use the butterfly pattern any more as it has been erased. On intraday chart price stands in the range, which is also potentially bearish. Appearing of "222" Sell pattern here, with potential starting point around 20-20.25K looks interesting for consideration of taking short position. At least this pattern gives chance to place very tight stop, so risk will be minimal
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
17.4 and 16K are nearest targetsMorning folks, So, miracle has not happened, and phantom bullish setup that we've discussed last time has been vanished. We see now multiple fundamental reasons of downside continuation, not only Fed move for 1%. Dollar Index analysis shows that currency should reach 113 point level, households start selling stocks, which is necessary factor for collapse on stock market. US Strategical crude oil reserves equals commercial ones, which means no export any more and no ability to burn reserves to hold price rising. Inflation will keep going higher. All these moments are negative. On daily chart we have clear bearish dynamic pressure - MACD trend stands bullish while price action is not. Second important issue- price has failed to jump back inside the flag. Thus, although our long term target as 12.2K and 9K, in near term we're watching for 17.4K and 16K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten