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Forexpeacearmy

25-25.5K for long entryMorning folks, We still doubt on upside BTC perspectives in long term, suggesting 35K as maximum upside potential. The common sense tells that Fed has started the banking crisis not to make crypto investors happy. They will grab all cash back, as they need it for Bond market and budget deficit close. Still, in short-term we're going with our H&S pattern and keep the same target of 29.3K. Since market is overbought now, we consider minor pullback, hopefully to 25-25.5K to consider long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
23.70K support should be strong enough Morning folks, Running into "alternative" assets is continuing. Personally, I have big doubts on bullish perspectives of BTC, just because Fed has started this ciris not to make BTC holders happy. My suggestion that very soon party will be over and we hear screams "let me out". But, not now probably. Market starts new big journey with weekly/daily H&S pattern with potential target around 29.35K area. Now it is challenging the neckline, but is at overbought and needs some time to abandon it. If market is really bullish, 23.70K support on 1H chart should be strong enough to hold market. Too deep pullback, especially back to 20-21K area of right shoulder's bottom could be the sign of coming failure. So, if you intend to buy - do not place too far stops. Either to wait for deeper retracement, if you suggest it happens, or place stops just under the strong support area where you intend to buy.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Technical cash redistributionMorning folks, BTC has bounced up from predefined area that we've discussed on Friday, but under external circumstances (you know what they are) jumped above our 21.5K target. Right now we do not see any fundamental shifts in BTC background. Current banking crisis promises nothing good to crypto in longer term. We treat US Treasury "saving fund" creation as a new way of QE, which means higher inflation in mid-term and more pressure on non-interest bearing assets. Don't be tempted by recent rally on BTC, because most probable - this is just cash redistribution out from public deposits to crypto market, which should have temporal effect. Bulls theoretically could consider position taking based on current upside impulse, using minor retracement of recent rally up. While bears should sit on the hands for 1-2 sessions at least and see what will happen. Particular speaking - keep an eye on daily bearish grabber. If it will be confirmed today, downside reversal could happen much sooner.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Pause @ 19.20-19.50Morning folks, So, everything goes with the plan - market was not even needed to form H&S pattern on intraday charts, that we've previously considered. As crypto-industry has got the 2nd hit after FTX from SilverGate bank, BTC just collapsed, significantly lower than our intraday target of 21K. Now we have to increase the time frame and watch on daily chart directly. Here we see nearest target of 19.2-19.5K, that could provide short-term support and even become a reason for the bounce up to 21-21.5K area (if NFP will be not too strong). But, according to our fundamental view, we do not see reason for major trend reversal on BTC market. BTC performance around 17.5-19K area is vital for next action. Either it will be to 32K or down to our major monthly target of 12.23K. Let's see...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
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by TheHOODofCRYPTO
Same target - 21.5KMorning folks, BTC was able to complete upside XOP retracement target, but overall action is choppy and slow, which suggests retracement nature. That's why we keep the same trading plan and consider short position with target around 21.5K area. Sudden upside breakout of 24.25K resistance means that BTC goes to 26K target and is forming upside 3-Drive "Sell" instead of H&S that we 're watching now. It doesn't change our mid term view of downside reversal in general but changes the price shape and the pattern that will be put on background of this reversal.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Watching for 22K areaMorning folks, We're keep going with our H&S pattern. Since market was not able to form upside butterfly pattern, our H&S turns to 1.27 ratio instead of common 1.618. Now we're watching price action back to the neckline around 22K. There are few moments to watch. Price now stands at strong resistance area around 23.5K area. Normally it is enough to keep bearish market moving down. If, somehow, BTC will keep upside action, H&S might not be formed. And we could get upside 3-Drive "Sell" instead with 26.3K top. Second is, we have few trading setups. Now intraday traders could consider short entry with 22K target. Once neckline will be reached - another chance for scalp long entry could be formed. If you trade on higher time frames - it is nothing to do by far. Wait when H&S shape will be completed and consider top of right arm or 3-Drive "Sell" pattern for short entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Still watching for reversalMorning folks, As we've said previously - we're sceptic on current upside rally and still watching for reversal. Since BTC is still coiling around the top, we see rising bearish pressure, based on price shape performance. Our previous trading plan is still valid, as BTC still keeps theoretical chances to form upside butterfly. But, in fact, we don't care what reversal shape will be. We intend to use either this butterfly for short position taking or larger H&S pattern. Our nearest downside target stands around 20K. If reversal starts from 26.20-26.40 - all the better.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Potential downside reversal 26-26.4KMorning folks, Last time we've discussed big 4H H&S pattern, with potential Head top around 26K. This week is supposed to be tough - Biden speech, Putin speech, PCE, Fed Minutes, multiple PMI's etc etc. Our fundamental analysis tells to not believe in "easing of regulation". In reality, regulation is becoming tougher, as world is coming to introducing of CBDC. Now not only crypto companies start getting business problems but related banks, persons, funds involved in this business. Second is - we have clear signals that Institutional investors are leaving stock market gradually and replaced by households with 1.5Bln/week pace approximately. Fed will not stop tightening, and we treat current upside action as temporal, until slogan "Fed will ease" is working. For now, we consider downside reversal in 26-26.4K area with downside target around 20K. This 1H butterfly could become the one that will trigger it.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
Potential downside reversalMorning folks, Once we've wondered what could push BTC to 25K area - answer has come suddenly. Without intruding of external factor - overall background as technical as fundamental has not suggested and still doesn't suggest upside rally. So we treat this performance as not reliable. With strong daily resistance around 26-27K area and current overbought on daily chart, we consider potential downside reversal now, starting from 26K area and consider no long positions.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
20.3-20.8K is a next targetMorning everybody, BTC performance looks bearish. It was not able to complete our upside AB-CD retracement on 1H chart and collapsed. Maybe coming CPI/PPI and other stuff could change the situation, but for now we do not consider any long positions. Daily trend stands bearish, and we have DiNapoli DRPO "Sell" pattern in progress, with nearest target of 20.30-20.80K area. Thus, those who have sold could keep positions, just do not forget to manage it. Those who would like to sell could think about 22.25 nearest resistance level. And let's see what we get on Thu, after CPI and Retail Sales releases...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
19.5-20K is a moment of truthMorning everybody, We have hoped that BTC completes 25K butterfly on daily chart, but it seems that situation turns different. Still, this is not vital, but technically it would be perfect, if this would happen. Anyway, as we expect that downside action continues on other assets, as we do on BTC. In nearest term we expect minor upside bounce (as on EUR, Gold as well), but then downside action should continue by our view. On daily chart (not shown here) we have DiNapoli DRPO "Sell" pattern. Here, on 2H chart, performance takes the shape of round top with multiple upside AB-CD's. So, hopefully this sequence continues, and once pullback will be done, we get another downside extension. All in all, we're mostly watching for 19.5-20K downside target, because this is potential bottom of the reverse H&S right arm on weekly chart. This is the level where the major perspective will be determined... Now it is just tactical fluctuations... Oh, yes - now we do not consider any bullish positions. Daily trend is bearish...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Still watching for 25KMorning folks, So, it seems that markets have heard only "disinflation" word from JP and missed everything else. We think that recent Fed comments were hawkish enough and euphoria will exhaust soon, when mispricing becomes obvious. Meantime nothing has changed in our mid term view - we're watching for reverse H&S on weekly chart and upside butterfly on daily chart with 25K destination point. Currently we do not consider long positions on daily and above time frames. Still, on intraday charts it is possible to consider. For example, on 1H chart we have another butterfly that leads to the same target. If NFP brings no negative effect, market could keep going to it. We have no resistance levels until this target. Thus, minor bounce to 22.25-22.30K area could be used to think about long position. Now short positions by far as well
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
23.3-23.5 is a control levelMorning everybody, BTC now has no technical barriers for upward action to our major 25-25.5K destination point. Its not at overbought and has no Fib resistance levels ahead. Still, we have tough week with multi central banks decision, NFP and other stuff. And some external factor intruding could hurt bullish tendency. In nearest term, we think we have to keep an eye on 23.3-23.5K area. BTC should not break it down, if upside context is valid. Scalp traders could consider long entry around it and 5/8 level of 22.5K. But for daily traders I would wait for major pullback out from 25 K resistance but not consider long entry right now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Better to sit on the handsMorning everybody, So, overall tendency and sentiment is positive on BTC market (although we're skeptic on major reversal idea due to fundamental reasons). Technically market should not have any big problems to reach 25.5K area - next solid resistance. But, there few moments that make it tricky. First is, as EUR as Gold now stand at strong resistance areas. EUR is at 1.0942 weekly 50% Fib level, while gold is at 1950 monthly overbought. Second - today we get GDP and PCE numbers. If they will be poor, investors will be scared of recession that will trigger demand for US Dollar, at least in short term. That's why, by these reasons, and also because here, on 4H chart we also have some signs of weakness, we prefer to wait for some pullback.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Pullback to 19-19.45K area Morning folks, So, BTC rally has been triggered by FTX news, that they have recovered $5Bln for clients and later was supported by common euphoria around CPI numbers. In our weekly FX report we've explained why it is temporal and soon everything returns back to its own. But, market likes to follow wishful thinking. Anyway, we have bullish context. Last time we've agreed to watch for 19.1K area resistance, were waiting for some response. It has not happened, and this makes us to switch to next, XOP target that market has hit recently. Now price stands at 1.618 AB-CD extension, at overbought and near 21.6K Fib resistance. Definitely it is not the moment for position taking and we need to wait for pullback. Now we consider 19-19.45K levels, as most probable destination of retracement. Still, we also do not exclude possible reverse H&S pattern. In this case pullback could reach 18.3-18.5K level. For the bears it is nothing to do by far, unless you're trading on intraday charts.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
19.2-19.6 is next beacon for the bearsMorning guys, Last time we've postponed bearish position taking as market strongly has passed through 1704-17080 resistance area and we've agree to watch for next upside target around 17.6K. Additionally we've said, that with stronger upside performance we could have to increase the scale and take a look at larger AB-CD pattern on daily chart. Now the time has come. As FTX was able to recover 5 Bln in cash, market lifts in spirits. Now we think that bears should keep hands in pockets and bulls get chances to see BTC around 19.2-19.6 K level. This level is rather strong. Additionally we get "222" Sell pattern here. Long term bearish context is still valid. If you intend to take long position - you could consider 17.6 and 17.8K intraday support levels (not showing here), but be aware of today's CPI report. Besides, you have to control upside breakout of 18.4 local top (B point) here. Downside reversal and erasing of recent rally should keep you aside from taking the long position. Downside reversal is not cancelled, it just postpones, giving market to show larger scale pullback.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Postpone bearish scenario until 17.6KMorning folks, As you could see BTC has reached the level that we've discussed last week - 17040-17080 resistance, and did it relatively easy. Since we consider upside continuation on other markets as well - EUR, Gold, on BTC we also postpone bearish scenario and now do not consider entry. Price stands above the K-resistance area and above OP target that we've discussed last time. At the same time, the bearish context is not broken and around 17.6K we could get the same "222" Sell. 17.6K is a next Agreement resistance area - 5/8 major Fib level and upside XOP (1.618) AB-CD target. Bulls probably could consider long entry on minor pullback. The retracement right now should not be deep. Otherwise, it could mean that BTC still reacts on 17.1K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
The core still stands the sameMorning folks, Just minor update here, as picture mostly stands the same as on Monday. Last time we said that if BTC will be lucky enough and could show upside AB-CD pattern - it might be good combination for short entry. Upside AB-CD target perfectly agrees with strong 17040-17080 resistance area and also we get "222" Sell in this case. BTC despite all the weakness slowly but stubbornly is creeping higher. So, if ADP or NFP will not intrude into process, we intend to consider short entry around 17-17.10K area. We do not consider any longs by far
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1