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Forexpeacearmy

Watching for 18KMorning folks, It is not occasionally every time we point that we do not consider any long positions on BTC market, despite that show you bullish patterns from time to time. Based on our Fundamental view - it is too early to speak on reversal as Fed has not started the tapering yet, but BTC already has lost 60% of capitalization. So, our approach is to watch for bullish patterns for better estimation of short entry areas. And take a look - the reverse H&S pattern that we've discussed last time has failed. Although BTC shows slow downside action, but we see few bearish nuances suggesting that it is temporal and sooner rather than later BTC should renew the lows. Currently it is difficult to find more or less clear pattern, but it seems that on 1H chart it might be the downside butterfly with nearest target around 18K area. The only question is whether downside action starts immediately or BTC will try to form minor AB-CD pattern. That's being said, we suggest to not buy BTC right now. If you search the way to go short - maybe this setup will be interesting to you. Take care, S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching 23-24K for short selling #2Morning guys, So, H&S that we've mentioned week ago is working slowly. It is not necessary to talk alot about it. Since bearish fundamental background has not changed and we still have long term 12K target - we consider this pattern as the chance to get better entry price on the short side. Thus, if miracle happens and it works, then 23-24.2K area seems like nice resistance for selling. Conversely - H&S failure and drop below 20K lows is not the worse scenario for the bears. It also tells that upside party is over. For the bulls - if you have taken position with this pattern, move stops to breakeven and watch the movie.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching 23-24K for short sellingMorning folks, Well, as you know - we're sceptic on any bullish setups that BTC is forming, just because we know the fundamental situation and it has no chances to normalize within few years. Thus, we keep valid our long-term targets on BTC of 12-13K and next is 8-9K. Now market has big technical problems - it has no more strong supports, it is not at oversold and it is re-testing previous vital top of 20K. If price breaks it down - bitcoin sets the new "old" trading range of 3-20K. But, this is a bit longer-term story. In short-term, market is taking relief after tough week, and all assets show the pullback, including interest rates. Thus, BTC could try to do the same, although, last time it was not able to form even minor reverse H&S on intraday chart, that we've shown you. WE do not plan to trade any bullish pattern, but we use it for special purpose. If pattern is formed - it shows us what levels to watch for short entry. Right now, if miracle happens and H&S pattern will be formed - supposedly 23.5-24K area might be interesting for new short entry. Still, it is not forbidden to make scalp long trades. We ignore it because trading time scale and because they are very unstable in current environment - but if you feel confidence, you could try.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
23.5K and then 21KMorning folks, Those who read our weekly reports on FPA site on fundamental analysis of the US economy probably are not surprised with the BTC collapse. As BTC as the stock market are doomed. We expect 2500 level on S&P on mid-term perspective with further drop below 2000 in longer-term, which means that our long term targets on BTC is 12K and 8K... Now BTC is challenging the last bullish outpost around 25-26K. This is last 5/8 all time Fib support on BTC. Lower is just a "free" space. Thus, currently we intend to go from one tactical target to another and control oversold levels. Now daily oversold level is ~21K. Potentially market could reach two extensions. First one is 1.27 and it stands at 23.5K, next one is 1.618 - 21K, that is very close to daily oversold. This is the program until Thursday, guys. If Fed rise rate for 0.75 - downside action should accelerate. Intraday upside retracement should not be too strong. At first glance, it seems that 26.2K and 27-27.4K are two levels that worthy of our attention, where we could consider short entry. Obviously we consider no new long positions.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
No inspiration to buyMorning folks, Price performance looks nervous in recent few sessions. Based on what I see on intraday chart, it seems that BTC is trying to break down the 29.65-29.67 K support area that we've discussed previously. Because it doesn't look like upward reversal. On daily chart we have bearish wedge consolidation and uncompleted weekly 25.9K target. Yes, lower CPI numbers could provide short-term momentum and let BTC to complete our 34-34.4K upside target. But this is different type of trading. You could try to bet on CPI numbers, if you want. Purely technical price action makes me to stay aside from long positions by far. Here I even do not consider our long term fundamental view, that is bearish.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
$34.10K ?Morning guys, This update is better to watch together with the previous one. So, our topic is next BTC target - 34.10K. How do you think, whether it will reach it? I hope so. At least the start of the week looks inspiring. In fact, last week Fed has added to financial system around $140 Bln (check the cash account of US Treasury), and this has let market to find the local bottom. Last time, when market just has reached support area, we said - it could bounce, but we do not see yet the signs of upside reversal. Now we see that support level is valid and price is bouncing up with signs of thrust. Although theoretical chances exist that we could get deeper AB=CD shape retracement down to 28K area, but we treat this chance as not very significant. With current performance we do not consider any bearish positions by far. Second - we should not get any deep retracements, as it already is done last week, and now by our view BTC stands in extension leg to the next target. It means that the most probable levels that could be reached and you could consider for long entry are 30.40-30.50K and 30.80K. Drop back to the 28 K area will not totally destroy upside chances, but makes context weaker. Because in this case we get too deep retracement after reaching of just minor target last week. Besides, in this case market erases current rally...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Common tendencyMorning folks, So, BTC has hit our first 0.618 upside extension and shows 3/8 pullback, which is normal. Downside action looks a bit strong and BTC now shows no signs of upside reversal. But we see two factors that could let BTC to keep going with the upside AB=CD pattern. First is cross-market analysis. On 10year yield we have clear H&S pattern, on FX, Gold market price action shows signs of recovery and possible more extended upside action. Thus, we hope that maybe BTC follows with the common tendency, at least at some degree. Second is, strong K-support area. Thus, in current circumstances, despite that our long term view is bearish, right now we do not consider new shorts positions by far. For long entry you have two options - either to take position right now, relying on strong support and other markets performance. Alternatively wait for first upside reaction before position taking.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Fed liquidity supports marketsMorning folks, BTC now follows to common tendency that we see on all markets - FX, stocks, bonds etc. But this is not the change of the trend, this is not the breakthrough in the mind of investors, guys. This is just liquidity pumping from the Fed. Although QT programme should start in June, in recent two months Fed "returned" back ~ $200 Bln, and this is the major reason of current upside performance. So, this pullback is temporal, the party will be over soon and we do not change our long term bearish view, when BTC could reach 11-12K area. Meantime, although upside action has not erased yet the butterfly pattern that we've discussed last time, chances for its erasing are significant. This makes us to not consider taking any new shorts by far. By looking at 4H chart, we have two major targets - COP around 31.75K and potentially to major daily area around $34-34.50K. If you would like to take part with this action - you could consider intraday 29.75-29.78 K-area and 29.10 major 5/8 Fib support for position taking. In a longer term, current upside action could change the shape of the price a bit tactically, but it doesn't change the fundamental background, so reversal down will happen just with other patterns, say daily "222" Sell from 34K area. Just as example... but it will happen anyway... ;) Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
23 then 20K?Morning folks, So, bearish signs are still here. On the daily chart the same pennant that we've discussed last time. On 4H chart market was not even to complete "222" Sell pattern that we've discussed last time. I wouldn't even talk about butterfly and its target around 32 K level. As in the long-term we expect 2500 level on S&P 500 index, our view on BTC stands bearish as well. We do not consider taking any long positions by far. In short-term, chances for downside butterfly increases. The next pattern's target stands around 23K, next one 21.5K and very close to ~20K area of 200-day MA... Be aware of GDP release today as well. Chances for negative surprise are high.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
pitty reliefMorning folks, Last week we said that we're not inspired with the BTC performance and called to stay aside from taking long position by far. Our long term view has not changed, as we think that BTC should drop more in mid term perspective. In short-term, market could reach 32-32.20K resistance area but we also see risk of downside continuation. First is, on daily chart you easily could recognize the pennant shape, which is potentially bearish continuation pattern. Overall upside action is too slow and choppy, showing no thrusting feature, which makes doubtful idea of upside reversal. In fact, we have two Gartley's potential patterns here. If it becomes the butterfly - market could complete COP target of AB=CD extension around 32-32.2. But, it might be only "222" Sell, with following appearing of daily downside butterfly... Currently whatever pattern you choose for the trading, you have to take the risk of anticipation because price action too choppy and no clear signs of dominance of any pattern. Fundamental picture stands not in favor of upside reversal.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
No longs #2Morning folks, Fundamentally, crush of stock market recently, hawkish speech from J. Powell and J. Yellen and terrible US statistics keep us aside from any long positions by far. Technically - appearing of bearish grabber on Monday and tail close yesterday looks bearish. Besides, on the daily chart bullish trend by MACD and bearish price action suggest of existence of bearish dynamic pressure. On intraday charts market also has broken the natural way of upside action, ignoring even near standing targets. This makes us think that BTC very soon could return back to the lows. Maybe later we get some proper reaction on strong support area, but not yet. Those who have bearish positions since Mon - could keep them, just do not forget to manage the stop orders.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
No longsMorning folks, So, market is trying to show the reaction on our major 26K support area, but it can't succeed yet. First is, today we could get bearish grabber that suggests forming of the new lows. Second - by taking a look at 4H chart we could see that BTC was not able even to complete minor 0.618 AB-CD target, hits the nearest 3/8 level and keep dropping. On 1H chart you could identify skewed H&S pattern, but BTC has problems with it as well These moments keep us aside from taking any long positions by far. Bears could try to anticipate grabber appearing with the stop somewhere above 32K initially. But - control that price close today at current levels or lower. Otherwise you will have to out, if grabber will not be formed. That's the risk. Alternatively - wait for tomorrow. In longer term, we see rising risk of BTC drop below 20K area, reaching our next 12K target as Fed doesn't stop sucking liquidity out of all markets, where the cryptos are the primary source and has lost already 60% of capitalization. Correlation with NASDAQ stands around 95% that confirms everything that we said since the last year - investors treat cryptos like second quality stock and it falls under sell-off first.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
26K target is completedMorning folks, Well, actually as BTC just has hit our long term target - it is not too much to tell about short-term situation. Now we avoid and short positions and wait for market reaction on strong support area. Particular speaking - what pattern will be formed around that let us to take tactical long position for the bounce. It probably takes few days. Supposed upside targets stand around resistance levels of 35K and the next one K-area. What is really interesting is a long term situation. As BTC confirms once again tight relation with the US stocks, and we expect miserable collapse of the stock market (that's actually already stands under way), chances of further drop of BTC in perspective of 4-6 months is growing. On monthly/weekly chart we already see rising bearish power. Next downside target stands around 12K. But if market drops there, hardly it recovers any time soon .
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
The road to 26K is openMorning folks, So, not occasionally we're skeptic on any tactic bullish setup. Thus, our recent intraday pattern even has not been formed, as market was not able to form the right arm of the pattern and collapsed not reaching the neckline. Thus, slowly but stubbornly we're coming to major 26K target. Actually BTC has no solid barriers on the way to it. Recent collapse has triggered the liquidation of miners' position as well. While BTC is coming lower - as more questions appears around final destination point. With the performance that we have on weekly chart, the 12K level doesn't seem like impossible anymore, especially in the light of our expectations of stock market collapse in nearest couple of months. That's being said, now we do not consider taking any long positions - neither for investing nor for speculative purposes. As BTC turns to extension mode, you could use most recent downside swing and its Fib levels to consider short entry. For instance, BTC could re-test broken support line, which also could be an option.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
moving with H&S patternMorning folks, So, our recent "222" is done and market re-tested 37K daily trend line support. With relatively dovish Fed comments, BTC gets the chance to show the bounce. If we get the pattern on the weekly chart- upside action could stand for 4-5K. Meantime, on 1H chart, market is forming the H&S pattern. Currently upside target based on AB-CD pattern stands slightly higher. Supposedly it should be the neckline. If we 're correct - then the bottom of the right arm, as usual, seems to be attractive point to consider the long entry
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Message merits repetitionMorning folks, So, it is nothing to please the bulls by far. April closed at tail, while weekly bullish grabber has not been formed. As we're coming to Fed and NFP and BTC still stands tightly related to stock market performance - we expect Fed comments might be more hawkish, which could put additional pressure on BTC. From this standpoint - on 1H chart we see absolutely the same setup as we've traded last time. It is once again "222" pattern that supposedly should start from $39.74K. This is for the bears. For the bulls right now we do not see anything suitable. In case of upside breakout of 40K area, something could be formed... but not yet.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Upside action looks weakMorning folks, BTC has shown a bit curious action in recent few days. The upward bounce that has become the surprise for us - has been reversed fast and price returns back to its own. The result of this action is bearish reversal session on daily chart. 1H chart shows very choppy bounce that cares no signs of thrust. It means that this is not the reversal. Now market stands at solid intraday resistance area. We suggest that downside continuation in current circumstances looks more probable and we still could keep an eye on 37K trend line support on daily chart. Bullish scenarios could return back on the table as soon as market forms some clear reversal pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
We consider $37.3K and $35.7KMorning folks, So, BTC expectedly erased all potential bullish patterns around support area that we've discussed last time. H&S also has failed. With the recent J.Powell comments and dynamic of the S&P index we suggest downside continuation on BTC, with the nearest short term targets of 37.3K and 35.7K of 1H butterfly pattern. In the longer-term we do not see any reasons to change our long term view by far, and still expect that BTC should reach 26K area at least, in mid term perspective. That's why we think that time for long-term investing in BTC is not come yet.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
keep going with 38K pullbackMorning folks, So, this is mostly the update to the previous idea, as market confirms our plan and is forming reverse H&S pattern around 4H 5/8 Fib support. The butterfly that we've discussed last time, has become the part of the H&S, as we've suggested. Thus, market finally gives the pattern that bulls could follow. This is at least something. Personally I like extended pattern and better to stick with H&S and will be waiting for the drop to 5/8 support and right arm's bottom. Just because it gives best risk/reward combination and least risk. At the same time market is forming multiple patterns on 4H chart, that could trigger immediate upward action. That's why the possible compromise is to take small position now and add the bulk in a case of our primary scenario with H&S. H&S failure suggests downside continuation and the end of the upside bounce. H&S target is AB-CD based on the head and the shoulder. Now it seems it stands around next resistance area around 44K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
38K could trigger minor tactical bounceMorning guys, So, as we've said last time - nothing has changed in our long-term view. We still think that background is not ready for long term investing in BTC. And now we see growing chances that our long-term target around 26K area will be achieved. We do not know, whether downside action stops at 26K, but at least, this area is worthy of consideration as very strong support, including all time 5/8 Fib level, daily AB-CD target and Yearly Pivot support 1. In short-term market stands around intraday 5/8 support level. Last time we said, that tactical bounce is possible, but as overall background is not friendly for the bulls - we have to wait for clear bullish pattern, because it could safe a lot of money, letting to place tight stop. On Thursday there was no suitable context for long entry. Now, with downside drop it is possible to keep an eye on 1.618 butterfly that could start from 38K. Currently price has completed 1.27 target, but since drop was relatively fast, it makes sense to wait for the next, 1.618 one. Second chance might be, if potential butterfly later becomes the part of reverse H&S pattern. IT happens very often. These are two tactical bullish scenarios to keep an eye on. And it would be better to not anticipate patterns, take position "by fact" when patterns are in place. Second - do not merry this position, take nearest upside target, because overall environment remains bearish, and the pullback will be only tactical (if it happens at all).
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Deceiving pullbackMorning folks, Last time we've discussed possible upside pullback, as around 41K area we had downside AB-CD (XOP) target, forming 3-Drive Buy and strong support area around. And now is the question - wether current pullback is what we were preparing to, or something different. We ask - it is different. In fact, we think that this pullback is just a by-product of the rivals' performance. Take a look - dollar shows the pullback, as well as traders book results on the US interest rates, preparing to Easter holidays. BTC hits 5/8 support on 4H chart and also shows the bounce, as well as S&P index. But, the truth picture is based on market response to our 41K target & support cluster. It was totally ignored - take a look at XOP area. No reaction at all. It means, that it is definitely not good time for long term investment. Upside bounce is not reliable and I would consider Fib resistance levels for the potential short entry next week. If still would like to make scalp bullish trades - wait for some clear pattern. Now market hits already first upside target and to take position you need something else. Currently we do not see any patterns by far, and think that it is not good idea to step in before weekend.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
At least something...Morning folks, In general this is an update to previous idea. So, take a look at them together. Last time we said, that it would be better to wait for 41-42K area, as market has have no bullish context and situation was blur. Right now we still think that time is not ready for long-term investing, as overall environment is not friendly for BTC. Still, tactically, in short-term, price stands at strong support area at least. And it might be used for short-term bullish trading. Thus, on 4H chart this is strong K-support area. And, here on 1H chart you could see that price simultaneously is coming to XOP (1.618) target of the AB-CD pattern and finalizes this action by 3-Drive Buy. So, If intend to buy BTC - you could use them together with K-area for position taking and stop placement. But don't marry on any position by far and move stops to breakeven ASAP. With rising US yields, falling stocks and rising US Dollar - overall background is not poisitve.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten