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Forexpeacearmy

bearish continuation patternMorning folks, Action of the last week is not very impressive as BTC tries to hold on the last 5/8 support area, forming no interest patterns on intraday charts by far. And week chart now provides more important picture. Now it is easy recognize forming bearish pennant, suggesting that downside action should continue. Fundamentally, it is correct, as BTC can't compete with interest-bearing assets, such as Bond and even dividend stocks, while rising interest rates as soon as this week should become another punch, especially if Fed provides more hawkish comments. And this is highly likely with monthly inflation around 12%. Besides, the price action also shows no signs of recovery. Thus, any attempt to rally was absorbed very fast and traders use any chance to close position as price is coming to 40-45K area. The pullback in recent 2 months has not exceeded 30% of the drop. Hourly chart shows choppy action that is difficult to treat as reversal. All this stuff makes us stay aside from investing and keep 26K target on the table.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
A tricky momentMorning folks, Bitcoin was able to stay above our "C" point, keeping at least theoretical chances on upward action. And theoretically both scenarios are possible. This is typical situation, when market stands in contraction mode, forming narrower and narrower swings, so we could easily imagine butterflies in both direction. But... we could be wrong actually. But we gravitate to bearish scenario by few reasons. First is, background has not changed and it is definitely not better than before 24th of February. Second - despite that big russian inflows, triggered recent jump and yesterday's attempt to go higher - sellers are absorbing any rally. Finally, on daily chart we have few bearish patterns, suggesting downside action. These moments makes us think that advantage stands on the bears' side. That's why there are two options actually. Either you anticipate and take trades on patterns that yet to be formed, taking more risk, or - just wait for the clarity. On the chart we draw short-term possible scenario to the downside. IF you would like to sell, then it is possible to hide stop above 43K now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
37K is a signal levelMorning everybody, So, it seems that our doubts concerning recent rally, that it might be just flows of Russian oligarchs and EU investors at less degree, seems to be correct, as it was reversed very fast. Second is, BTC shows no positive reaction on supportive NFP report on Friday. Our vital support level, that we've discussed last time, has been broken fast. And now we have big bearish engulfing pattern on 4H chart. Although we suppose that bearish context is already re-established, formal confirmation is downside breakout of 37K lows of "C" point. In this case upside AB-CD pattern will be erased. Recent action makes us to keep our central scenario with daily butterfly and 26K target valid.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
41K invalidation pointMorning folks, So, last setup is done nice, but I suspect that it was driven by capitals flow as of Russian oligarchs as EU investors that are rebalancing assets and moving some out of the EU. It is interesting now, for how long this flow will last. But, this is different topic... In short term, market has great upside momentum, and technically it is difficult to think about short positions, although not impossible. For the long entry we suggest 41K area might be interesting as strong support and the neckline of our H&S pattern. Market has to stay above it to keep going higher. Additionally, you could use Stop "buy" order instead, somewhere around 45.5K area. Next target is 46.7-47K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
The tricky patternMorning folks, On BTC we've got the pullback as on all the other markets, which could be wrongly treated as preparation to reversal. We do not follow to this suggestion and still keep 26K target on the table. So, our position is - No investments in BTC by far. Still, for short-term trading, you could consider this hourly reverse H&S pattern that might start from ~ 38K and potentially could reach 43K target. But, to get it we need silence from the geopolitical arena. Any surprises that hardly will be positive, push BTC to new lows. In this case, the coming J. Powell speech on Thursday and NFP release most probably will be ignored.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
26K is a question of timeMorning folks, So, it is no need to make big comments. Keeping all non-technical background aside, from technical point of view Bitcoin has failed to form H&S pattern and dropped below major 5/8 support. Thus odds suggest taking out of 32K lows - this is the usual performance, when H&S fails. Price drops below the head. As market has no solid support areas between 32 and 26K, we suggest that reaching of 26K is a question of time. So, we keep our position the same - it is not the time for long-term investing yet.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Minor 40.5K pullback is possible Morning guys, Currently, markets across the board have got a minor injection of positivity as Putin/Biden meeting is planned for the 24th of February. We're undisposed to overestimate that potential result of this meeting, just because Biden never accept Russia's conditions. It becomes a political suicide for him and for the whole Democratic party. Accompanied with destructive inflation on the US - their political destiny will be doomed. As a result, we do not see reasons by far to change our major scenario with 26K target. Until 24th, BTC and other markets could drift slightly higher, supposedly to re-test broken 40.5K former resistance area, but results of the meeting hardly become relaxing and BTC again could turn down.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
41-46K rangeMorning guys, Market shows relatively quiet behavior, and currently we see only single option - either you anticipate action in your favorite direction or wait for more clarity. 4H chart picture looks like indecision action with triangle shape. Thus, 40K and 46K looks like invalidation points, correspondingly for bullish and bearish positions. Our personal view is BTC has more chances to keep going lower. On daily chart we do not exclude chances of downside appearing that precisely finalizes our OP target around 26K. Another reason for this view is fundamental. In recent 2-3 weeks we've heard only "Ukraine", now horrible world "Inflation" once again appears in media that brings nightmare to Biden's administration and the Fed. We suggest that markets now suspect that inflationary problems are greater than it was supposed and they are undervalued. Thus, Fed efforts might not be enough to hold it. This makes negative fundamental background for stocks and cryptos.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
40.5-41K level is vital now Morning folks, So, BTC accurately has completed our last 45.6K target and dropped out from the strong weekly resistance area. To be honest, guys, we can't find a solid long-term background for investing in crypto now. The two big factors of tough Fed policy and rising geopolitical tensions keep us aside from taking long-term bullish positions. We expect that Fed hike the rate by 0.5% in March and we suggest that it might be not a single case throughout the year. It is not fully priced in already and supposedly will be bearish for BTC. The second is geopolitics. We suggest that tensions are not even started yet, all that we see is just a child's play to what is on the way. Since the BTC shows mostly quality of risky asset - it goes down among the first, if tensions start rising again. Still, if geopolitical talks ease a bit for a few days, BTC has a short-term background that might work. For example, on the 4H chart, we have a kind of H&S pattern with vital 40.5-41K support. The previous move-up shows signs of thrust, and the technical setup looks not too bad. If we wouldn't have all this political stuff, we would say that it is suitable for a long entry. But, now you never know when a new spiral of geopolitical tricks comes on the stage. If for whatever reason, BTC starts dropping below the major 5/8 area - we're going to 26K daily target.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
46.56KMorning everybody, So, BTC accurately hits the target that we've set on Monday. For the rest of the week, we suspect that the next target should be enough, at least until our next update on Monday. Currently, we could sign some hidden strength on the markets across the board, it seems that markets is aimed for higher action - EUR, Gold, etc. But here, on BTC we have to remind that in fact, BTC is flirting around a strong weekly resistance area of 44.70-46.50$ and we're not ready to make fast conclusions yet that BTC is turning bullish already. That's why let's consider first the next short-term target. This is another XOP of larger AB=CD pattern. It perfectly agrees with the major 3/8 weekly resistance and stands at 46.56K area. It might be completed by a puny butterfly pattern that is forming on top. Then, depending on the market reaction to it - we will go further.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
40-40.5K pullback and 45.25K targetMorning folks, It was a good rally last week, the H&S pattern that we've discussed has not even been formed, but the major test still stands ahead. The point is 44.70-46.50K is a strong weekly resistance area. Upward action looks nice but mostly it is due to the weakness in the USD but not of strength in BTC itself. We suggest that it is too early to forget about the downside trend and 26K target. We suggest that BTC shows a downside reaction from ~45-46K area and it should be a moderate pullback at least. Although we do not exclude the downside continuation also. In the short-term BTC has free space to 45-46 area and our next target is XOP @ 45.25K. But, as we have completed AB=CD and "222" Sell pattern, the minor downside pullback to 40-40.5K area could happen first. That's being said, bears should wait when upside resistance will be touched and XOP target will be completed, while bulls could consider 40-40.5K area and 45.25K destination point.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Lucky to get 38K pullback before collapseMorning folks, This week is relatively quiet as geopolitical tensions calm down temporarily while everything that could be said about Fed hawkish policy already was said... But it doesn't mean that situation is changing. We treat current action as temporal relief and still do not see any signs of reversal and think that it is early to invest in BTC. Just watch the video on the FPA site for analysis of other time frames and more in-depth analysis. So, we still see nothing to do for the bulls. For the bears... maybe you could consider this pattern. BTC could start dropping right now, and we become lucky if first, we get upside bounce to 38K to form the right arm...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Everything is mostly the sameGreetings everybody, In recent two sessions market has got relief as geopolitical tensions calm down a bit and dust around Fed hawkish policy has settled. Still, we suggest that this is temporal relief, as in geopolitics as around Fed policy. Technically it takes shape of wobbling choppy and heavy upside action that difficult to call as reversal stage. As we've already discussed - to let us to think about any reversal at all, market has to form upside reversal swing and break LL-LH downside tendency. Right now BTC is not able even to reach 1H 5/8 resistance area. Thus, in current circumstance we do not consider any long entry by far and keep our mid term 26K target valid. For the short entry there are few options exist. Most obvious right now is potential butterfly pattern that could trigger downside continuation. Theoretically, we could imagine some upside continuation in a way of AB=CD pattern and minor upside butterfly that could finalize it (try to imagine it by yourself), but we do not see sufficient fundamental background for this action using cross-market analysis, especially with interest rates market. it makes us to treat this scenario as less probable. For more details - watch our video on FPA site.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Not enough upside powerMorning folks, As we've suggested last time, daily Oversold could push price a bit higher to test intraday Fib levels, but it is not enough to overcome fundamental reasons of weakness. Thus, yesterday's Fed statement has pushed BTC back down again. To keep it clear - we need action above 42K area to get only the first signs of changing. Intaday "lower-lows, lower highs" tendency has to be broken first, before we start thinking about investing. Currently we do not see it. Taking the detailed view on recent performance - market has tried to form upside AB-CD but was able to reach only minor 0.618 extension. CD leg is slower than AB and recent reversal already pushed price under the "C" point, forming bearish reversal swing. Thus, although we do not exclude chance for another one, larger AB=CD upside pattern, downside continuation seems more probable. For example, it might starts with H&S pattern, but not necessary. That's being said, we still do not see good investment background and keep our 26K target and final point of the initial swing down.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
When I'm 26...Morning folks, So, it seems that our suggestion on rising of the bearish dynamic pressure on Thursday last week was correct... Right now a lot of things to discuss in relation to BTC, so if you have a time, it would be better if you watch our daily video on FPA site. Anyway, shortly speaking, we do not see any bullish signs right now and suggest that reaching of 26-28K area seems very probable within few weeks. Current stop is due reaching of daily oversold area but not because of reaching our targets. Other words speaking - it was not the drop to the targets, it was just the drop down. Once market takes some rest, it probably keep going lower. Thus, right now we do not see any good background for investing. Bears could try to catch some pullbacks to intraday resistance areas- - 37.5K seems as most suitable. Analysis of the longer-term charts looks a bit scaring, as it suggests solid upside pullback at some moment, highly likely that it happens right from 26K area, supposedly back to 40-44K area, but then we should get another downside extension. Still, this is long-term picture that could change many times an we return back to discuss of these issues when time will come.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Bearish dynamic pressureMorning guys, Well, market shows anemic action, upside butterfly on 1H chart from our last report has been cancelled. Today we have "222" Buy on 1H chart, but it doesn't matter, actually. The one thing that we would like to show is the daily picture, and the price action that we do not like and that might become the first sign of downside breakout. It calls "bearish dynamic pressure'. The red line on the chart is MACD derivative indicator. When price stands above it - MACD shows bullish trend and vice versa. So, now trend stands bullish, but price action is not, it shows downside continuation. Very often it leads to downside breakout, whether it will be short-term spike or real downside continuation. THere some other moments exist on the intraday charts, why we do not consider yet the buying of BTC, but daily pressure is the one that should be watching first.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC - no signs to buyMorning folks, So, the last analysis seems to be completed nicely. Now the big question is where we go next. The problem is we do not have this week any important speeches or statistics, so interest rates performance could be wobbling, as well as BTC market. In fact, current performance shows nothing bullish and we still do not see any reasons to buy BTC. Besides, we suggest that Dollar Index retracement should be a bit higher, which limits the upside potential of the Bitcoin market as well. For the truth's sake I would say - do nothing by far. But just to not leave you without a dessert, we show two possible scenarios that you could consider depending on your own view on the market. We suggest that market is more bearish now rather than bullish, but we could be wrong... Anyway, if you would like to buy BTC - you could consider upside butterfly with the target around the XOP and vital area at recent local lows. Coversely bears could think about downside butterfly that, as we suppose could finalize our short term target on 4H chart around 36K area within a week or two. S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Wait for pullback, at leastMorning folks, We do not want to upset you, but our opinion that recent upside action is not the major reversal yet. Mostly it is not achievement of BTC market but the weakness of the US Dollar due recent CPI report. BTC shows much weaker reaction compares to the FX market, which makes it similar to the Gold and Interest rates market. As dollar stands oversold right now on daily chart and BTC stands at strong 1H chart resistance, we suggest two downside scenarios. The light one is just the pullback, at least to 42K area before BTC tries to reach 46K target. And the heavy one - BTC could even keep downside action to our next target of 36.5K. Both of them suggest downside action, although of different kind. With the view on higher time frames - we do not see reasons yet to invest in BTC. The only move above 48-49K could become the first hint that something positive is going on, as a lot of bearish moments exist right now around the different time frames.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
We keep valid 40K and 36K targetsMorning folks, It is a difficult choice today - what chart to show in the update because higher time frames are more important. Anyway, in two words - we think that downside continuation has more chances to happen this week. Taking in consideration how BTC has reacted on Fed minutes publication and that weaker NFP numbers were not able to support it, we suggest that we could get another drop, especially with coming CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales this week. Thus, we suggest that it is not time for investing in BTC, taking long-term positions. Still, 10-year yields hit 1.8% of our predefined target, forming a bearish butterfly and we have two sessions until the PPI report, BTC could show minor bounce. The price action that we see on the 1H chart is hard to call "reliable", but, at least it has a relatively small risk. This is only for scalp traders who want to buy BTC. A minor pullback could happen here. Besides, this is the only pattern that we could extract from messy and choppy fluctuation by far... But with a high degree of certainty, this trade will be rather bumpy.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
40K is highly likelyMorning folks, Now you understand our doubt on taking any long position on BTC by far. Despite our H&S setup has tried to show upward action with some bounce and was with relatively low risk, BTC once again shows its dependence on interest rate performance. The recent fed minutes release just has crushed it once again. We really hope that BTC will be able to avoid serious bearish consequences, but now situation is becoming more tricky. Anyway, as we suggest that 10-year yields should rise at least to 1.8% area, it makes very probable BTC drop to 1.27 extension of 40K area. Drop to the next 35.5-36K target is also probable but to say it definitely we need to see the performance to 40K target first. If it becomes the same way as yesterday, then yes, BTC follows to 36K as well. That's being said, now we do not consider taking any new long positions. Besides, we do not have any patterns and other technical reasons to do it by far. Now BTC price shape accurately repeats the shape of consolidation on daily chart after the May collapse. Let's hope that this duplication continues and BTC keeps chances on the reversal from current levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
IF you want to...Morning folks, Hopefully, you've got a good time and Holidays with your family and had some rest... We have a lot of things to tell today, but all of them stand on higher time frames, which is out of the scope of daily analysis. Our previous setup has worked perfectly and confirmed our doubts about BTC strength. Today we could confirm the same, as we see a lot of technical moments that increase chances of another drop on BTC. But, if you still want to try to buy it - here is a 1H pattern. At least it provides reasonable risk to deal with it. And in the worst case, you could be out at breakeven. This is the reverse H&S pattern on the 1H chart that BTC likes to form. The market now is coming to the final stage and forming the right arm. It means that somewhere around 46.3-46.35$ the entry point should be ready. Our suggestion is that chances stand high that this pattern fails, but anyway, this is a probability game and it doesn't mean that you can't try it. If you're not sure - then sit on the hands and wait for clarity. Our basic scenario is BTC should challenge recent lows within a few sessions. So, with our next update on Thu, we should get more clarity on this situation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
No bullish breakthroughMorning folks, So, we've got the drop that counted on last time and BTC once again at 5/8 support. But is it ready to be bought now? I have big doubts on it. BTC now stands in tight performance with the US interest rates. Once they have jumped to 1.56% area - BTC has dropped. Right now, interest rates suggest minor retracement, as "222" Sell pattern has been completed there. The reflection of this we have on BTC - a bit ugly 3-Drive buy, suggesting possible pullback to 48.1-48.3K area. But this is only for scalp traders. In a bit longer perspective, we think that the time is not come yet to invest. First is - drop was rather deep and choppy. Market stands at 5/8 support for the second time, which increases the chance of further drop back to the lows. Second - right now we do not have any clear bullish pattern and no solid bullish performance that could assure us with reversal. That's being said - if you trade on 1H or lower time frames, you could try to buy with 48.1-48.3 target at K-resistance area. While on higher time frames, daily/weekly basis, we do not see sufficient context for long entry right now. Chances on re-testing of major lows have increased as well, with this recent downside action...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
I would wait for the pullback still...Morning folks, So, H&S performance was rather nice, despite that market was thin. Now is the major question - whether we're ready for new rally, or its not the time yet. My personal view is the latter. Despite that jump was nice, but if we take a look at 4H chart we see that - market stands at strong K-resistance area, and overall action on CD leg is a bit slower than on AB pullback. Besides, bearish grabber could be formed within few hours. Personally I'm a bit conservative, and in the conditions like that I prefer to wait for clarity and try to catch the possible pullback around major support areas - the nearest one is around 48K. THere are some other reasons exist on higher time frames as well. But, this is just my personality. Tastes stand to differ. So, if you would like to possess on immediate upward continuation, which also has chances to happen - you could try to do this. For this purpose you do not need to place deep stop. In fact, downside reaction on COP is done already and if market goes up at all - it should do it right from here. Otherwise, "my" scenario above starts to realize. So, chose what you like more and what is better fits your trading style.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1