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Forexpeacearmy

42.40K stands on the horizonMorning folks, As BTC shows really weak performance, we suggest it would be better to wait with any long positions by far. One of the reasons is recent reaction on major AB=CD target on 1H chart. The reaction was only minor AB-CD (blue) retracement and not even attempt to form, say, reverse H&S pattern. It makes us think that XOP target is the next one - 42.40K This also should be the big test for the major lows as XOP stands just 50$ above it. Thus, we suggest that it would be better to wait when XOP will be reached, or until situation will change in some other way and BTC starts to show bullish signs. Currently we do not see it. Breaking of 42K lows will be bad thing suggesting much deeper drop on higher time frames. To keep bullish context BTC has to stay above this low.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Anemic action provides nothing valuableMorning everybody, So, BTC is so stunned by recent collapse that it can't show anything interesting by far. The only things that we could discuss is intraday performance. Thus, our '222" Buy on 4H chart has started well, but it already has completed the minimum target. Recent reaction on Fed statement makes us think that this is more the profit booking by speculators rather than change in sentiment. It means that BTC could try to climb slightly higher to complete 50.11K target, but hardly (at least we do not see any signs for this) it will go to the next "blue" XOP . That's being said, if you have long position with "222" Buy - you could try to hold it until 50.11K target, but now we do not see comfortable conditions for taking new long position by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
No sighs of recovery yetMorning folks, Currently BTC follows to our basic scenario that we've announced after collapse has happened. Market should fluctuate in a range as it has happened after May sell-off. There are few reasons for that as fundamental as technical. Technically - market has solid bearish momentum that should be faded first. Recent performance makes us think that BTC still could creep lower and even re-test the low that is set now. Fundamentally - market is entering into new environment of tighter Fed policy that happens for the first time in its history. And nobody can predict how BTC reacts. First test looks not very optimistic as BTC was sold off as well as some 2nd quality risky asset. Since within few days another Fed meeting comes and we think that hawkish comments are highly likely, BTC could get 2nd hit. Right now price action on 1H chart doesn't show any signs of recovery. This is mostly indecision behavior. That's being said, in current situation we do not see something else, except potential "222" Buy pattern around 45-45.5K area. This is something, at least, that could provide more or less acceptable background. Besides, 45 is closer to 41k lows then current price action. If we get strong downside action - this pattern should be ignored. Only gradual downside retracement, in the way how we see it now will be acceptable for this setup.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
We need to be patientMorning folks, This time we do not discuss any clear trading setups, as we do not have any of them yet. But what we see interesting right now is comparison of May collapse and the recent one. First is, we expect some similarity on how market should react and behave on it. Last time it was flat consolidation before BTC has shown real thrusting action and breaks the consolidation up. The same thing we expect to see now. But first market has to confirm the lows by multiple testing of them. The reason why we need it - different background of collapse. Last time it was single factor - banning of the mining in China. This time we have more serious and time extended pattern - Fed policy. And currently it is not definite yet that lows are set already. In nearest time we expect wide BTC fluctuation and re-testing of previous lows. Thus, we do not consider any long positions by far. Be patient...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Crucial 3 weeksMorning everybody, So, once again H&S from our last report has become great indicator of further action. It has failed, and failed miserably. Once again it shows how important to have clear pattern that lets you to minimize potential loss. I'm sure, somebody, who have traded H&S failure were able to get good result. Anyway, today is nothing to discuss on lower time frames. Collapse just has happened, and market has not enough time to response. The major thing we have on the monthly chart. Market has dropped to strong K-area and potentially could form the bullish grabber. Hopefully we'll get it. In this case market keeps bullish context and will remain on the way to 76K+ area. But, before taking long-term position - we have to get grabber confirmation, i.e. wait until December close. The reasons are simple. First is, BTC was looked like cheap 2nd quality risky assets and it has taken the first, initial impact of changing fundamental background. It has dropped almost for 30% - much more compares to the stocks, for example. It explains how investors treat it, and proves that it is too far until BTC could even pretend on the quality of safe-haven. It means that current pullback might be just technical reaction, but not buyers step-in. We're dealing not with just reaction on some news headline. Market react on changing of economical background, that is extended in time. This is the risk, that once first reaction will be over - BTC could keep going lower. So, be patient and not hurry up with long entry.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
The lovely H&S againMorning folks, As we've suggested last time, in general BTC keeps bullish context but it would be better to buy as close to local lows as possible. It seems that H&S pattern becomes the favorite one for the BTC market. Now - once again, if you intend to go long, this is the time for decision making, as price is coiling around the right arm's bottom. The stop is better to place at least under 55K area, as market still could form a kind of butterfly here, with slightly deeper action. But it is not definitely, and only to choose the stop area. Position taking time has already come. In a case of H&S failure we suggest downside action somewhere to 51K - market will fluctuate inside wide weekly support area of 51-54K. It is vital for long term performance. So, if you have bearish view - then your choice is to watch for H&S failure signs, such as price dropping below 55K and moving to the head's bottom.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for upside reversalMorning folks, So, BTC finally has dropped to predefined 51-53K strong support area, and based on technical picture it is suitable enough to reverse price. At the same time with Omicron panic around the Globe, the reversal process might be tricky and BTC could show more volatility around this level. In fact, we have a lot of different bullish signs that point on possible upside reversal (if not major but moderate, at least), and it is impossible to show them all on this chart. So, if you would like to - watch the video on FPA site. Its free. Here we just tell that current support is crucial for BTC sentiment. We suggest that invalidation point stands under the level, and right now it would be better to not place stop too tight below the recent lows. By our view, reasonable area is below 50K. In this case your stop will be as below strong support as below weekly oversold and has minimum chances to be filled occasionally. Hence, the task is to buy BTC as close to the lows as possible. We see few patterns that might be formed here - and one of them reverse H&S that already we could recognize, but it looks better on 4H chart. Also you could consider intraday support levels for entry as well by other reasons (watch the video). Finally be aware of bearish grabber that is forming right now on daily chart. We hope that it will be cancelled by the end of the day, but who knows... With new variant fears around, market could challenge the lows few times, if we get some bad news headlines.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Looks a bit heavy...Morning folks, Last time we've said that price performance with supposed H&S pattern should clarify the sentiment and direction. Now we see that performance looks a bit heavy. This is not the one that you expect to see with bullish reversal pattern. The logic of H&S suggests that the 2nd half of the pattern should be controlled by bulls, that we do not see here. In fact, market has made attempt to touch the neckline but failed and drop back to the head. Now right at the bottom BTC has formed "222" Sell pattern (that you could see on 1H chart). This performance provides not sufficient context for immediate long entry and increases chances on another downside action to major 51-53K support area. For long entry here we need more confirmation of bullish sentiment. With the things as they stand now, we suggest not to take long position by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
Watching for the pattern #2Morning folks, Last time we were watching for H&S on 1H chart that perfectly clarified situation to us. Now, market has completed next downside 4H target at 15.5K and is forming the same pattern but of a bit bigger scale. So, we once again intend to use it. For the bulls - you have to make decision right now as price stands at the bottom of the right arm. You could place relatively tight stop, somewhere in the middle between the head bottom and right arm's lows. Because if market doesn't turn up here - it doesn't turn up at all and keep dropping to next support area. For the bears - you could use Stop "Sell" order slightly above the Head's bottom. If H&S works - do nothing and wait when it hits the target, at least. These setups are not mutually exclusive, so you could combine them if you want...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Just watch for the patternMorning guys, So a lot of concern now stands on next BTC step. Our downside AB=CD retracement is completed perfectly as market hits 59.5 support and target area. Our answer is simple here. On 1H chart market always equally reacts on support. It starts forming a kind of H&S shape - so you could see the similarity by yourself from our chart. It means that this is the pattern for those, who intends to go long. This is relatively safe, as invalidation point stands right at the bottom of the pattern. At the same time - this pattern is a signal. If it fails - then be prepared to the 50-51K drop. The failure of the pattern is the signal for the bears.... If you decide to buy BTC - try to move stops at breakeven as soon as possible, when minor upside reaction follows, at least. Because market could limit upside action just with minor target, as it was last time...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
About retracement againGreetings everybody, So last week was relatively quiet with no impact on higher time frames. Market stands in consolidation, slightly was hit by CPI report. So the same question we have on the table now - whether it will be deeper AB=CD retracement or, market could start moving higher immediately. To answer it, we need to control two vital levels that are mutually exclusives. First, let's start from the bearish scenario. Market has formed reversed H&S on 1H chart and almost hits its first, AB=CD target. This target creates Agreement resistance with daily 5/8 Fib levels. And overall shape looks like "222" Sell pattern. So, if you have bearish view - this is the area that you need to think about. Once you take the position - move stops to breakeven as soon as possible. Next one is bullish scenario. Once pullback from resistance starts - we need to keep an eye on 64.8-65K area. This is neckline, and K-support area. If BTC indeed is bullish - it has to stay above it. Downside breakout means that bearish scenario wins and we get deeper daily AB=CD action. Hence - this level is for bulls to consider. If 1H H&S keeps working - next target stands around 69K top.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
CPI effect durabilityMorning folks, So the drop that we've discussed last time has happened but due to absolutely different reason - CPI report. Now the question is, how long CPI effect will be. As BTC has general bullish context sooner rather than later it should keep going higher. Here we have two scenarios. To understand which one will be formed - we need to keep an eye on daily chart and intraday one. On daily, we need to watch for bullish grabber, as BTC stands at support of recent ATH and K-support area on intraday charts. If grabber appears tod-tom, it means that BTC is able to start rising immediately. Alternatively, if no grabbers appear - we could get downside AB-CD that could start from ~ 66K area lead price to next support of 62K. This action anyway is tactical and doesn't hurt long term background. But, it is solid action anyway. That's being said we're watching for daily patterns and price performance around 66K resistance where "222" Sell might be formed.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
63.5-64.5 are for entry, 70K is nearest targetMorning folks, So, it seems our bet on triangle's direct breakout is worked and we hope that we're in continuation mode to the major upside targets. At least fundamental background that we've got last week stands supportive to BTC upward action. So, those who haven't taken position inside the triangle now we could consider 63.5-63.8 K-support area on 1H chart and optionally nearest support at 64.5K. Market hits AB=CD target, so, at least minor respect we should get. Hopefully it will be enough to step-in. Our nearest upside target is the daily one, and it stands at 70K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Direct upward continuationMorning folks, So, H&S pattern has played nice, despite that we saw some speculative tricks during Fed statement... Now we should pay attention to daily chart that is forming bullish context. We're tending to suggestion that BTC should show direct upward continuation without any deeper retracement. Once first downside bounce happened, we had few potential scenarios - triangle, some DiNapoli patterns and downside AB=CD. Now, based on performance that we see on intraday charts, it seems that triangle scenario is most probable. As triangle is continuation pattern and is forming right under previous top - it means that market is building an energy to challenge it. So, as a conclusion, we do not consider any bearish position right now. For long entry, it is possible to catch intraday bullish patterns, such as recent H&S or "2222" Buy, whatever will be formed. Also pay attention to recent top inside the triangle. If price jumps above it - most probable that upward continuation is started. More details in the video on FPA site. Take care, S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Additional scenario of retracement appearsHey everybody, BTC still stands with suggested retracement out from 67K month target. We still have two major destination points for it - 56.25K and 51.65K, although we hope that it wouldn't go so far... Today we would like to share with some add-on to the retracement's shape that might be interesting. Currently it is impossible to say, whether this scenario works as reversal and triggers direct upward continuation to next long-term target, or it just pushes price to 65K target before 2nd downside leg starts. If this setup fails, then it could reshape into downside butterfly and complete 56.25K target. So, for conservative traders, it is not necessary to follow it. At the same time it has some adv., and the major one is ability to place very tight stop. We're talking about H&S pattern that is formed around daily support line. Market stands at the point of right arm's bottom, where upward action should start. Whether to follow it or not - is up to you. Thus, for a conservative approach - look for more clarity. Otherwise, you could try this one, if it fits to your view and trading style.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement targetsGood morning folks, As BTC is getting clearer shape, now we could talk about potential targets of downside retracement. Triangle has not been formed, so, immediate upward continuation was taken off the table. Now it is clear H&S shape and it has two potential targets. First one is very close, that is AB=CD that agrees with strong Fib support area. This is the first level for accumulation and attempt to buy, as market has good chances to bounce, at least temporary, that lets us to move stops to b/e. Currently we do not have serious reasons to suggest drop to XOP and next Agreement area with major 5/8 Fib support. But, if this happens, still - you know what level to watch next. These two levels are enough to hold retracement on any bullish market. If BTC somehow breaks them both - it will be clear signal that something is broken in bullish machine.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement shapeGood morning folks, So the first downside reaction starts as we've discussed it last time. Now, it is too big task to explore possible shapes and describe them here - just watch the video on FPA site if you're interested... Here I would say only that we need to control the depth of the reaction. First is, if market starts to form the triangle - this is the clear sign to buy and coming upside continuation. All other shapes suggest deeper retracement. The first one you already could see on 4H chart - this is H&S. This pattern could lead price to 55K at, least. Alternatively we could get the Double Top, that suggests even deeper retracement and re-testing local highs around 52K. So let's start with H&S and see how it will turn. Once we get more information - we return to this subject on Thu, with our next update.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
To back or not to backMorning folks, So, BTC hits ATH and 0.618 (COP) 67K extension on monthly chart. This is first upside target of new large AB-CD pattern. Also price hits weekly overbought. Technically, picture definitely suggests that BTC should go higher in long-term. Our first target is 75-77K. But in near-term the major question is whether it shows any reaction on the top and what reaction will be. As usual it could be either wash&rinse of the top and deeper pullback or market could start coiling around it. The former is more bearish for lower time frames than the latter. Hence the strategy is different depending on what you would like to do. For bulls we suggest it makes sense to wait for pullback to 56.5-59K area where nice bullish setup might be formed and this area is attractive to possess for upward continuation. Besides, hardly you would like to buy at ATH and weekly overbought level. For the bears picture is not as pleasant, mostly because of the major tendency. Right now the background for taking position is not ready it. Yes, market hits the targets but it is unclear the reaction yet, as too few time passed since then. As targets stand at long term chart, do not scare to miss the entry moment. If reaction starts - it will be clear and extended. That's being said - now we should understand what the reaction will be (if any). Approximately, bulls should keep an eye on 56.5-59K, while bears have to wait for clear signs and patterns before pull the trigger
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Pullback after 64-67K targetsMorning folks, So BTC stands nice and we have no doubts in long term bullish context. So our attention right now mostly on short term performance as many people ask where next chance for entry could appear. Right now BTC stands at weekly overbought area and is coming to targets of COP ~ 67K on monthly chart and daily OP at 64K. I suspect that 67K might be hit technically on triggering buying stops above ATH.... Anyway, whatever shape price takes on a way up and around these targets, it seems we could consider 55K support area (this is current level) as we potentially could get DInapoli B&B "Buy" trade if our suggestion will be correct and, indeed, market shows some tactical bounce once targets will be reached...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Buying on deepsMorning folks, BTC performance now looks great. We consider at this moment only long position taking, at least on daily and above time frames. But to do this we need more or less moderate retracement. Right now, as price hits 1.27 upside extension on daily chart, this is the chance that maybe we get some pullback. In this case we consider 50.7-51K as primary level to watch for. Retracement also could be very small - just to 53K. At current moment other support levels have less chances to be reached.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
50.3K seems attractive for long entryMorning folks, So, BTC has got rather strong positive injection from JP so it has not formed even minor pullback before the rally that we have discussed lat time. Now market has no significant barriers till the former ATH top. Besides, based on the market mechanics, BTC should not show any deep retracements any more. It means that currently we could consider only more or less moderate pullbacks for new position taking. Now price stands at Overbought on daily chart and 56.6K is extension resistance (not shown here). It gives us some chances that BTC could show some pullback starting somewhere around current levels. In this case we could keep an eye on few support levels for new entry. Our favor stands at 50.30K K-support area which seems most reliable for this purpose.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
It seems that direction is setMorning folks, Once we were watching for deeper action, market suddenly has got the injection of positive mood from JP that drastically has shifted situation and our supposed retracement was over in a blink of an eye. Now, we the patterns that we have on higher time frames - weekly and monthly, we could say that upward direction seems to be set. As we have signs of thrusting action, we suppose that extension mode is started. Our long-term target is 75K. So, the recent lows become now vital area for current bullish context and market has to stay above it to keep it. At current moment we do not consider any short positions. As price now stands at major 5/8 resistance and Agreement with upside AB-CD target, flirting near Overbought area, maybe it makes sense to consider tactic pullback to 44-45K area for long entry. Especially because H&S shape is becoming clear now.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
It would be better to wait a bitMorning folks, So market drifts a bit lower as we suggested, but at the same it shows good resistance to dollar appreciation and situation on EUR and Gold looks worse. Still, personally I feel uncomfortable to take long position right now as few bearish signs still stand in place. Thus, daily OP target and major 5/8 support area have not been touched yet. Today also we could get bearish daily grabber that agrees with potential butterfly shape that still could be formed. Until it will be cancelled by direct upward breakout - it is not safe to buy. Thus, we think that for short term trading it would be better to wait for more clarity. Recent rally is good but we saw it before how they were cancelled. For long-term investments and accumulation 38-40K area is good enough as we do not see any problems on longer-term charts. Our next long-term target is 75K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3