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Forexpeacearmy

38K still...Morning folks, So BTC has shown nice reaction on our H&S pattern, showing another collapse down, barely has not reached major 38K support that was an our target. Currently we have to say that 38 still "IS" our target. Despite that we have nice upward bounce, we treat chances for V-shape reversal now and direct upward continuation as "low". There are few reasons for that. First is too strong and fast downside action that has solid momentum. Second - price is going to very strong resistance area around 45K and, finally, intraday performance that stands week. All these moments make us still keep an eye on another leg down to 38K level. It means that if you would like to buy BTC, it would be better to wait for either upward breakout of 46K level or completion of our scenario around 38K. For the bears - you could consider short entry around major resistance with stops above it. The major advantage of this setup is very tight stop, so the risk is minimal but reward might be very significant, if we right and BTC returns later to 38K, finally to complete it... Take care. S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
38k?Morning folks, So, market is confirming our suggestion of deeper retracement, and now price takes more evident shape of H&S pattern on 4H chart. It is very comfortable to deal with it as you definitely know the target and invalidation point. Potentially pattern has the target at 38K - around next major daily Fib support area. So, for long entry you have to wait either H&S failure - if price jumps above the right arm's top or its completion around 38K. Bears could consider short entry around minor resistance levels with stops above the right arm's top - this is classic way to deal with it. Another reason why we suggest that market could proceed to 38K, or at least try to challenge recent lows is bullish pattern on Dollar Index, so BTC probably remains under pressure this week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
6
Deeper retracement is not cancelled yetMorning folks, So, market has changed the shape a bit and we haven't got the butterfly that we've discussed last time, but it doesn't mean that deeper retracement will not happen. In fact, we have bearish reversal bar on weekly chart and, as a rule - they have continuation. That's why despite that market forms upside AB-CD instead of butterfly, but 2nd leg down could start from 59K resistance area. Besides, now we have "222" Sell pattern. If we get bearish grabber today on daily chart as well - we could get necessary context for another drop. It means that bears should keep an eye on reversal patterns around 59K area today and avoid any fast upward breakouts. If everything goes smooth and market forms bearish pattern on top - it is possible to try to go short here. In a case of strong upward action above 5/8 resistance - do not go short, as it means that no 2nd downside leg happens. Conversely, bulls should wait for either strong upward breakout or, have no choice but wait when big daily downside AB=CD pattern will be completed.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Bearish signs are worthy of our attentionGood morning everybody, Current price action makes us think that chances to get some downside continuation are significant. We do not know the way that it takes - it might be just stop grabbing action below recent lows or real downside breakout and action to next daily 38.2K support area. But bearish signs that we have suggest that at least new challenge of current lows should happen. First is overall market sentiment. Despite some deteriorating in US statistics - we see no inspiration as on FX as on Gold market. The same we could say about the cryptos. So, despite that recent factors, including ECB and Fed statements make dollar weaker - this doesn't add points to the rivals. So, markets stand not in very positive mood. Second - in current action we do not see any attempt to play back the drop, no attempt to show the thrust up. It makes us think that market just reacts on strong daily support and oversold area, building an energy for challenge. Price action takes the shape of the pennant and price action shows signs of bearish dynamic pressure. Besides, don't' forget that this week we get CPI, Retail Sales and some other data that seems to be important. This leads us to conclusion that it would be better to wait with taking new long positions for speculative purposes, as we easily could get the downside butterfly to one of the extensions, showing on the chart. Speaking about bearish positions - theoretically it is possible but the problem with the stop placement, as it has to be placed above 47K top that is too far right now. At it makes not very attractive short entry. For accumulation purposes and investing, we think that current level could be considered for some increasing of coins reserves.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
AB-CD down is possibleMorning folks, So, BTC was able to completed only the butterfly at 53K and reversal has started. We suggest that recent sell-off is a technical issue that makes no impact on fundamental background and market sentiment. Still, it perfectly fits to market mechanics that as a rule shows deep retracement after first upward swing, because rest of previous bearish momentum has to be faded. Currently price is forming the pennant that theoretically is bearish continuation pattern. That's why we do not exclude appearing of extended downside AB-CD pattern after minor upward bounce. So, for speculative purposes I would wait a bit more to understand the way of price reaction at current support area. For investing purposes, we suggest that current support area could be used for buying some coins for long-term perspective. If we're correct on second leg down - next level to watch for is 38K. But now we do not have clear signs that 2nd leg down should happen
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
53 and 58KMorning folks, So, NFP was in a row with our expectations which, together with JP Wyoming statement, creates positive background for all dollar rivals, including cryptos. Now market is breaking through 51K resistance area and performance looks strong enough to suggest further upward action. Thus, we do not need to invent something else, 1.27 butterfly is completed but we have next one at 53K and 58K XOP target on 4H chart. 58K BTW agrees with daily/weekly overbought areas. So we suggest that it will be the ceil for current week as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
51.64K and maybe 53KGood morning everybody, So, as we've said on Monday - market has got Wyoming positive injection. Daily price action was forming the triangle that now is broken. Still, NFP report stands ahead. Although ADP numbers were 2 times worse but who knows... This is the major concern guys, right now - whether we get just wash& rinse of previous top or we get real upward breakout. The first idea is also important because of existence of 51K AB-CD target on 4H chart, and the fact that 5/8 major resistance is not tested yet. That's why, now we consider potential upside butterfly pattern with first and major reliable target around 51.64K, that hopefully could be tested even before NFP... Next target of 53K is also real, but if it gets support from weaker NFP report. Action above 53-54K is hardly possible this week, as market ceil to weekly Overbought area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Two ways of retracementMorning folks, Sorry for a bit messy chart but all these lines we use to explain our view. Last time we've talked about possible pullback that would be perfect to consider buying coins for longer term perspective. As on Friday all markets have got injection of positivity from the Fed, the price shape here, on BTC has changed as well. It doesn't deny retracement totally, and price still could reach 45K area in a shape of AB-CD (as it is shown on the chart), but as risky assets is becoming stronger, we need to consider additional scenario that might be formed here. As we have decided to not consider any short positions - recent action has not made any negative impact for us. Recall that we have uncompleted 50.8K AB=CD target on 4H chart and BTC has not touched 51K major Fib resistance as well. Now, on 4H chart price is taking shape of triangle, which makes us think that BTC could try to challenge mentioned levels. Thus, we think that it makes sense to pay attention to 47.5K area as well - here we have "222" Buy potential reversal point, Fib support and lower border of 4H chart triangle. If even we're wrong and BTC will keep dropping further - this is relatively strong area for intraday chart and some minor bounce should happen at the first touch. This bounce has to be used for stop moving to breakeven. This is our idea. Thus, next is up to you - you could try it, or, if you have doubts - wait for larger AB=CD downside pattern. Once market completes it, we take a look what to do next.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement is startedMorning everybody, so, downside reaction on resistance is started. As context stands bullish, we're mostly interested where an how to buy rather than to sell. From that standpoint, first point that it makes sense to consider is 43.5-44K area. Now, based on AB-CD shape on 1H chart we could calculate the targets. First is OP stands around 46K, but taking in consideration the speed of CD leg most probable that it will be passed. Thus, the first one that it makes sense to focus on is 1.618 XOP extension at 43.8K. It is interesting that XOP leads us to potential neckline of greater H&S pattern on 4H chart. But this will the next story... Maybe it will not be formed at all. We'll see. With the Jackson Hole ahead everything is possible... Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Reaction on 51KMorning folks, So BTC shows real strength in recent weeks and long-term background stands friendly to accumulation. Our suggestion that BTC should take out the previous tops in mid term. Market shows minor reaction on weekly overbought area, which means that demand for BTC is growing and any, even minor deep immediately is buying out. Market was not able to form the H&S pattern by this reason on 1H chart, that we were watching last time. Now price is coming to the major daily resistance area of 51K - this is 5/8 Fib level and Agreement with AB=CD target. Besides, this is the neckline of former H&S pattern on top, i.e. natural resistance area. Once again, currently we not dare to predict the pullback depth but odds suggest that if you're thinking about long entry - it makes sense to wait a bit, as minor pullback, at least should happen. For the bears it is possible to wait for bearish patterns (H&S is most probable) on 1H chart, but to not marry any position and take nearest target as BTC now is aimed on top.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Still watching for 41-42K areaGreetings everybody, In recent week BTC shows relatively slow action. Now we could consider a bit deeper retracement. Actually the pattern that we've discussed now is taking some shape. I'm talking about potential H&S pattern that could lead price to 41-42K support area. Actually I'm not sure that it is definitely will be formed, as overall action looks strong. But, as BTC stands at weekly overbought and daily 5/8 resistance - it is logical to suggest retracement at least to major 3/8 support level. Besides, now we see some strength in US dollar across the board, so, it also could become the factor in favor of H&S pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Watching for 42.7 supportMorning folks, BTC shows positive performance, we see signs of thrust on daily chart. Meantime, price hits weekly Overbought area and it makes sense to consider minor pullback. At the first stage we like 42.7K K-support area and previous top where we intend to consider long entry. Since H&S pattern is possible here - once 42.7K will be touched, it would be better to move stops to breakeven. In a case of H&S failure, our next target is 50-51K as it is shown on previous idea.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
42-42.3K looks interestingGreetings everybody, BTC shows excellent performance, especially if we take into consideration strength of US Dollar right now. Now price hits nearest 45K target. Some technical issues suggest downside pullback that might be different depth. From the one point of view - pullback should be 50-60% because BTC at weekly oversold and formed bullish reversal swing. Previous bearish momentum is strong enough still. From another one - BTC shows strong resistance to bearish factors, COP is minimal target. That's why now we consider 42-42.3K area as first level that is suitable for long entry. This is strong support and even market later follows deeper - at the first touch it should show solid upward bounce, that we intend to use for stop moving to breakeven. This is our tactics here for the beginning of the week. Our next upside target is 51K area - major daily 5/8 Fib resistance and AB-CD target Agreement.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Multiple patterns are formingGreetings everybody, So, the H&S pattern that we've discussed last time stands in progress. But, as we have NFP report on horizon - few nuances exist now. First is, if you already have taken bearish position with the pattern - move stops to breakeven. If NFP will be poor (and chances for that are significant because of poor ADP recently), then market could show another upward swing to 5/8 resistance area before final reversal. Here it could take the shape of "222" Sell, while on daily chart in fact we have B&B "Buy" pattern. In a case of positive NFP - downside action should continue directly. Anyway: If you would like to take long position - this is good chance to try with stops below recent lows. Potential risk is minimal now. Target is 5/8 resistance around 40.67$. For new short entry I would wait for NFP release, as chances on upside AB-CD action now stands solid.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Watching for pullbackGood morning, So, 42K target has been hit and market turns to expected retracement. Now, as upside channel has been broken on 1H chart and price has formed first upside reversal swing after long-term flat action, we expect more or less deep retracement. Here, on 1H chart we're watching for H&S pattern and 36.5-37K area as potential target. This is rather strong 4H K-support area, and upward action could continue right from here. It means we have two potential setups. Once H&S will be formed - this is setup for intraday bears, while around 36-37K area we start searching chances for long entry and upward continuation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Still watching for 42KMorning everybody, Our long-term bullish background is almost set as it is just 2 sessions till the end of the July and hardly possible the drop below 29K lows. But for position taking with this setup on monthly/weekly charts we need healthy retracement. Now BTC stands in a first more or less solid upward action and gradually is coming to 42-43K resistance area. On 4H chart we also have XOP target that we've discussed last time. Although upward bounce from 36K has happened pretty accurately, currently we do not consider any new long entry as market almost stands at resistance. Once XOP will be reached - we start watching for pullback, and hopefully we could use it for long entry of a bigger scale. Upward action could be finalized by the butterfly that you could see here, on 1H chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
42K is the nearest targetMorning folks, So BTC finally shows thrusting action and we hope that this is just a beginning. WE already mentioned potential bullish grabber on monthly chart that suggest return to the top. Now, we recent jump chances are higher to get it. Hopefully Fed statement doesn't hurt it too much. Besides, previous week has become the bullish reversal one. Based on daily and 4H chart major resistance stands around 42-43K area, because this is the top border of consolidation after May collapse. Upside breakout could become the turning point in the trend. In shorter-term, we have AB-CD pattern with approx. the same target around 42K. In general we could start watching for the deep to buy. Now it seems that 36K area is suitable for this purpose. Hopefully, accumulation period is coming to an end and market keep going higher...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
This is it?Morning folks, Today we consider small pattern but with huge potential. At first glance, this is just reverse H&S with potential entry area around 31K and target around 34-35K that could become the top of right wing of the pattern from our pervious idea before drop to 26 or maybe 24K area. But, July could become decisive month for BTC as we could get bullish grabber on monthly chart, that suggests return back to ATM top. What events, news or speeches will stand behind it - I do not know. But, this reverse H&S pattern potentially could become the turning point. We intend to go step by step and focus first on nearest target, but still be prepared to positive surprises...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Market looks heavy Morning folks, Market has shown anemic action since our recent discussion and overall situation looks heavy by our view. First is, recent downside fake breakout it seems is becoming not fake any more and this is absolutely irrational behavior. After fake breakout price has to move at least to opposite border of consolidation. This is just how markets work. As we do not see it - situation looks worse than it seems at first glance. Second is - downside turn happens in the middle of the range, which is also a bearish sign. Trend are bearish by MACD as on weekly as on daily charts. Finally, take a look at our previous idea - BTC was not able to form "222" pattern that we've suggested and drop. JP dovish speech in Congress hasn't helped too much. So, we would say that BTC looks more bearish rather than bullish, and this is the reason why we do not consider any long positions by far. Still, it is not everything clear with bearish positions as well. Although overall picture looks bearish - we do not have any patterns for position taking. Thus, we hope that maybe ECB and Fed this week bring some volatility and we could get something. For example, it would be nice to get butterfly, as I plot it on the chart. Thus, for bearish position taking we still need the clear pattern. Take care. S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
34K pullback is possibleMorning guys, Market looks heavy now, and personally I'm tending to idea of downside action, mostly because BTC has erased bullish patterns that we've discussed last time, and it can't get started upward action on weekly chart, although fake downside breakout of flag pattern has been formed. This "inability" usually leads to new lows. So, currently we do not consider taking any long positions on daily and above time frames. Second is, price action is very choppy without any clear patterns that lets us to focus only on 1H chart. This is the only setup that we see currently, that may be will be realized. In general, price is forming flat wedge pattern, and inside the pattern market keeps tendency to form retracements in a way of "222" patterns. This time, price additionally has completed AB-CD target inside the wedge. Thus, in a case of "222" again - price could test 34K area with the same "222" shape. All "222"'s are finished right at upper border of the wedge. This is the only setup that we could find here.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
No bearish positions by farMorning folks, Last time we've talked about possible bearish context that might be forming on the market, but in recent 2-3 sessions situation has changed significantly and we have to postpone consideration of bearish positions by far. On daily chart we've got three in a row bullish grabbers that suggest action to 36K at least. It means that we have to wait either when grabbers are completed or failed before speaking again on bearish positions. For long entry our vital point is recent lows. On 4H chart we haven't got real 33.6k breakout as price briefly touched it to complete downside AB-CD target and form "222" Buy pattern. Until lows are valid, BTC keeps bullish context and chance to climb at least to 36K area. Potentially it might be AB =CD as well, with 37.3K destination point. If you consider long entry - wait for the patterns on the lower time frames. For example, we could get reverse H&S on 1H chart. Try to buy as close to the lows as possible to minimize the risk. Use some retracement to Fib support levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
New downside scenarioMorning folks, So, last week we were watching for bullish scenario, whether market will be able to form some bullish pattern, while it stands above crucial 32.5K support. Although some attempts are made to proceed higher, BTC was not able to hold on a surface and dropped below the major level. As we have very similar situation on other markets, such as Gold and EUR, now we're turning to bearish scenario. Currently it is difficult to foresee clear shape of price action, but we could approximately set few targets and potential patterns that might be formed here. First is, we cold get downside AB=CD shape with target around 24K area. CD leg, in turn, could take the shape of the butterfly pattern, which has the same target. Thus, currently it is possible to watch for bearish continuation patterns on 1H chart and chances to step-in. Invalidation point for this scenario is 36.7K top.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Still a room for bullish contextGreetings everybody, So, despite we've got relatively good NFP numbers and our H&S has worked nice - we still think that BTC has room for bullish context and its not cancelled yet. This is because of few details that we have here. First is, recall our "222" Sell on 4H chart from previous "idea". Downside action stopped at 5/8 Fib support area after H&S has been triggered. Now, take a look - price stands above neckline and overall downside performance looks a bit stretched. This makes us to see purchases stand behind the current price action. NFP report was very comfortable to everybody as it keeps door open for dollar rivals as well. Taking it all together we suggest two things. First is - if you would like to sell, wait for 5/8 Fib level breakout as I call it "Vital bullish lows". For instance, you could use Stop "Sell" order below 32.5K area. Because bullish context is valid until market stands above it. Consequently, for the bulls - you could consider long entry until market stands above these lows. Try to take position on minor pullback to them, to minimize the risk. There are multiple upside patterns could be formed here - AB=CD that I've drawn, butterfly, etc. If we're not mistaking in our view - upside target should be around 39K first, with possible extension to 41K. Another reason, why we do not totally deny BTC upside view is ETH picture. There it looks better. So, maybe it doesn't work but it makes to consider it still...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten