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Forexpeacearmy

55K is a red lineMorning folks, So, the 1st part of our trading plan is done - market has completed AB=CD retracement and formed the right arm of H&S pattern (see previous update). Now BTC stands at crucial for short-term performance area. In fact, if BTC is still bullish - it has to go up right from here. If it doesn't do this - then it is not bullish and moderate downside retracement on daily chart starts. I've explained everything in previous update. For trading purposes it means that bulls have to make decision on long entry, while bears could keep an eye on 55K area as indicator. In a case of downside breakout, somewhere around 52K area - half way to 50K lows, it is possible to make decision on short entry. Additionally it is possible to use Stop "Sell" orders around 50K lows.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2nd stage - 55-56K levelMorning everybody, We follow the same trading plan that we've discussed last week. As you could see on 4H chart - our H&S now is taking more evident shape. Pattern could be used twofold. First is as trading setup, second - as indicator. As a trading setup it is for those who intend to buy BTC and trade on intraday charts. Here it provides classic rules - long position could be considered around right arm's bottom, for instance - when AB-CD pattern is completed. But in general, 55-56K area is the one where upside action could start, if BTC is bullish indeed. Second - 55K area is an indicator. While price stands above it - everything is good. But in a case of downside breakout H&S fails, which, in turn means drop below the head, which in turn means downside breakout of daily wage pattern and - starting of stronger downside retracement. So, downside breakout of 55K could be treated as bearish signal for those who intend to sell BTC.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
61K then 55-56K and up to 67-70$Morning folks, So, I hope you've enjoyed the H&S pattern that we've discussed last time. Now it is a question, what to do next... First is, within few hours BTC has to complete H&S target around 61000-61050. Then odds suggest some downside reaction on this target, as overall upside action stands gradual, and not too fast. Hopefully, the pullback will be somewhere to 55-56K area. Although bearish signs are forming on daily chart, such as wedge pattern and MACD divergence - the context is not ready yet, and we suppose, that BTC has the chance to make an effort and form another swing up first. Supposedly, it will be to 67-70K area. Yes - this is actually, another larger reverse H&S at the top... Plan your trades accordingly. In general - no shorts by far. For long entry we suggest Limit order around 56K (can't say definitely yet as retracement is not started) and/or sleeping Stop Buy around the top additionally, or if no H&S will be formed and BTC keep going higher. All these stuff will be crushed if BTC drops below 55K and keep going to the 50K lows.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
H&S as indicatorMorning folks, So, the bounce that we've discussed from 50-51K area has happened, and now we have the next problem - up or down? On daily chart we have bearish hints, such as wedge consolidation and MACD divergence, but price action is too slow and gradual to treat it as reversal already. It means that BTC could make another swing up inside the daily wedge. And to control the execution of this scenario and trading planning, we intend to use 1H reverse H&S pattern. Logic is simple here - if BTC holds the pattern and 53K potential lows in particular, then indeed another upside swing should happen, somewhere to 60K area, at least. Conversely, drop below 53K lows of right arm, moving back to 50 means that we probably are going to next 46K target that we have on 4H chart. Scalp traders could use H&S for trading, as usual. Just avoid vertical drop to 53K. In this case do not take any longs, we need gradual action down, no collapses. H&S failure means bearish setup and downside continuation. That's the idea.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Context has turned bearishMorning folks, Changings in fundamental background has triggered run-to-safety and all dollar rivals were pushed lower, including BTC. We do not expect significant drop till the end of the week, as BTC stands oversold, but in perspective of 1-2 weeks - it might go lower. This is the reason why we're mostly focused only on 46K level as next area where we could consider long entry. Short positions are not welcome as well, because of daily oversold level. Currently only very short-term, scalp setups exists. Thus, intraday traders could consider support levels, where market stands right now and next one around 50K where minor bounce could happen. Thus - no longs for daily traders, no shorts, scalp longs from support areas are possible on 1H and below time frames.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
63.5K?Morning folks, Right before the Fed we've talked about bullish context and warned to not go short by far as sentiment stands bullish on the market. Recent jump based on our hourly H&S pattern was nice, but don't be upset if you have missed it. Because it was just a beginning, the first part of potential upside action. Since we have next monthly target around 63.5 K and multiple bullish grabbers on daily chart, suggesting the new top - these two features could be perfectly finished by nicely looking butterfly pattern with 64K target. Thus - still no shorts until 53K daily lows are valid, long entry is possible with the stops below these lows, i.e. 53K and target around 63.5-64K. As BTC already is done perfect 5/8 retracement inside the butterfly and formed nicely looking "222" Buy on 1H chart as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
No shorts until 53K breakoutMorning folks, Although downside action has happened - but in a bit different manner. We've suggested that as interest rates as BTC shows upside spike before major downside reaction. Now everything turns from top to bottom. Downside reaction has happened before Fed, but not as a result of it. Now, the butterfly that we've discussed has reached its minimum target - 3/8 retracement. Instead of that, we've got bullish grabber on daily chart, that theoretically suggests action to new top and it takes the shape of reverse H&S pattern on 1H chart. In current circumstances our options are - do nothing and wait for Fed results, trying to go long around 54.7K with stops below recent lows of 53K. For bears - use Stop "Sell" order below 52.5K in a case of downside breakout and erasing of the bullish scenario. Choose what you like more. Actually both scenarios of entry could be combined, because Stop "Sell" order triggers only when bullish scenario is destroyed. Extreme volatility could bring whipsaw action, but hardly we could do something with this now, around Fed statement.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
62.5K now stands in focusGreetings everybody, So it seems it was worthy of our efforts that we've decided to keep an eye on H&S pattern on 1H chart before consider any short-positions. As H&S has not been formed - it saved a lot of money. Now situation is similar but a bit more tricky. Markets across the board prepare background for retracement - gold, EUR at long-term supports and oversold, 3-Drive "Sell" pattern on 10-year interest rates and here we have potential Butterfly "Sell" around 62.5K. This butterfly actually, is not something new, but shift of previously discussed "222" Sell pattern. As we come closer to Fed meeting on Tue-Wed, it probably becomes the event that could trigger this mess, if JP tells something about interest rates and shows concern of its rising. Thus, it seems that currently it is not good point to go long immediately, until you want to pass through "doom&gloom" of Fed meeting. For short entry we suggest to hold the same strategy - bearish patterns are great, but before taking position, it would be better to get another one on hourly chart right at the top of 62.5K. It could minimize potential loss and provide perfect entry point for position.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
WE need more confirmation for short entryMorning guys, Recently was a bit tricky situation when market has not confirmed potentially bearish setup that we've discussed last time. Still, as we've said before, 2nd chance to reverse exists around 56K area, as this is the objective point of 4H AB-CD pattern. As a result we have healthy "222" Sell on 4H time frame. Still, it is a bit scary to sell when upside tendency stands strong enough. It might happen, that recent stop is just reaction on daily overbought that market hits yesterday. When we have uncertainty about overall situation - we need more confirmation for short entry and preferably with less risk. For this purpose, I suppose, we could consider 1H H&S pattern, that provides as confirmation as clear points where to enter (top of the right arm) and where to hide the stop (above the head). Once it will be formed - chances for downside action increases. No H&S - no shorts, this is obvious.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Downside setup is still validMorning folks, Today we focus on daily chart, as it shows the major things that let us to control our setup. Intraday chart has more details and tricky moments, but all of them lead to the daily picture. Currently, everything depends on today's top. Potentially we could get bearish continuation pattern, if price close as it stands right now or lower. In this case we could consider short entry with stops above the top and target around $38-40K area. Butterfly could finalize downside action. Alternatively, in the case of upward action above this top - price should reach at least 55-56K level. Continuation above the top is also possible but with less degree.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Minor adjustment to the planMorning folks, Actually, we keep everything the same, but would like to make minor adjustments, because now we have the shape of BC upside leg. Although price hits 5/8 Fib resistance already, the downside action could start from a bit higher level - 55K, as BC leg is upside ab-cd pattern as well, with 55K target. Correspondingly - 52-55K is an area that we also have to keep an eye on, because in case of upside breakout and moving back to the top, it could mean that upside tendency is continuing and bearish weekly pattern on a way to failure. If you intend to trade it short - initial stop has to be counted on possibility of reaching 55K level, despite where you take the position.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Weekly bearish engulfing patternMorning everybody, This time it could be difficult to put everything in minor update. In two words - we intend to stick with weekly bearish engulfing pattern. It has actually three way of utility. First one is for long-term traders who wants to accumulate more coins in portfolio. Those need to wait when pattern hits the target around 38-40K , weekly Fib level and oversold where some part of portfolio could be added. Second, for those, who in general mind free to accept bearish trading now - you could consider taking short position at some resistance as engulfing pattern in most cases consists of two swings. First one is already in place, while second is yet to start. I've tried to draw the shape of the price. This is just approximation - major points of the patterns could be different, but shape hopefully should remain. Finally, scalp traders could consider upside bounce (BC leg of the pattern). Currently we do not have anything special yet on intraday chart, except MACD divergence, but once any patterns will be formed - it is possible to consider minor upward pullback. That's approximately that we intend to follow next week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
11
DiNapoli B&B on daily chartMorning everybody, As some pullback is started we have the first fruit, which is DiNapoli B&B "Buy" setup on daily chart. Its minimum target stands around 53.23K area, entry inside of 45-49K range. I suggests that intraday 48-49K area looks most suitable for that. The optimal stop is below the lows, but if it is too much - it is possible to hide it either below 48.4K or 47K area, depending on your financial possibility. B&B also could be the continuation pattern, if it doesn't limit with minimum target. So, if you consider scale-in, it also could serve your purposes. As usual - do not forget move stops to b/e at a proper moment. Get luck.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Bitcoin cross-market analysisMorning folks, It is nothing to say about short-term picture, because, as you could see by yourself, BTC is just creeping higher without any particular patterns or something. The scale of the motion so wide that it makes no sense to look at intraday charts. The major question is when finally market takes the breath. Previously we already have shown you strong correlation of BTC market and 10-year US yields. Our next BTC target, as you know is ~63-64K. Now take a look at weekly US bonds chart. market is coming to strong resistance area of 1.40-1.45 area, which stands since 2012. Since current upside action is the first one after strong collapse - reaction on resistance definitely should happen. Usually it takes 50-60% in common situation, but for us even 30% pullback becomes an a event. By our suggestion 1.45 might be reached at the same moment when BTC hits 63K. If our suggestion will be correct, we should get multiple trading setups on daily and later on weekly chart while this pullback will be underway.
TVC:US10Y
by Sive-Morten
63K area is next to watchMorning everybody, So our intraday 3-Drive has reached only minimum 46K target - the low between 2nd and 3rd drive, while butterfly has failed. It means that BTC should go upward further. We do not have any reasons to go short by far. Speaking about long entry - currently we also do not have any setups, but any pullback on daily chart, at least to 3/8 Fib support might be a good level to consider. Now to major thing... BTC recently shows strong correlation with interest rates. Next strong resistance on interest rates stands around 1.4-1.45% level, while it might agree with next BTC target on monthly chart around 60-63K area. When interest rates hit the resistance - we have to be careful and keep an eye on possible bearish patterns on BTC as well. But right now we do not see something really interesting.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
Watch 50K for reversalGreetings everybody, Here is just minor update as BTC is coming to the 50K target. Now it is definitely not a good moment for the new long position, as market is overbought and stands near desirable level. Important news from Tesla and Morgan Stanley are priced-in mostly and the only setup that we could try is downside retracement. In general, from the perspective of existing bullish momentum it looks risky, so it is, but situation becomes more or less attractive because of near stop placing. Take a look on 4H chart we have butterfly target and perfect 3-Drive sell that is finalizing it. It means that around 50.20K area it is possible to consider short entry with stops right above this area. So, big risk of direction is compensated by relatively small potential loss. Additionally, you could control the reversal process on lower time frames - 15 min, for example and watch for clear bearish patterns there, such as H&S. If our suggestion is correct, downside action could be to 42K in a case of butterfly target, or shyer 46K level for 3-Drive only. Potentially it could be big H&S on daily, but this is too extended perspective for current update. Also keep an eye on interest rates, preferably if they stand flat or start dropping as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
If BTC holds above 40K - it should try to reach 50KMorning everybody, So, our suggestion on re-testing of 42 was correct. While we politely have suggested reaching of just OP around 42.20 - BTC hits XOP at 48K. Now we have reasons to suggest that BTC is aiming on 50K target. First, is, recently it was good acceleration to 1.27 butterfly target. As a rule, it leads to 1.618 after some pause. Second, BTC stands in tight relation to interest rates, and today we could get the pattern that suggests jump to new highs on 10 year yield. This, in turn, should help BTC to reach the anniversary level. Technically, BTC could show some retracement, but if market is still bullish it has to stay above strong K-support and previous top of 42k. Downside breakout means that retracement might be deeper, and it could drop to 30K. Actually this is our next trading plan, if 50K will be reached. Thus, if you intend to buy - keep on chain of Fib supports, be sure that price is above 42 K area. Target is 50K - 1.618 Butterfly extension.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Challenge of 42 top again?Greetings everybody, So, as with massive coming of institutional investors to crypto market, they have brought their own "classical" rules of trading and role of different assets. BTC, for example, is treated as "inflation protection" and moves very accurately with 10-year interest rate. Thus, as tomorrow on NFP release we suspect jump in "hourly earnings" inflation - BTC also could challenge the previous top. Besides, from pure technical view - once market doesn't want to go down (that was suggested by the price action in the beginning of the week), it means that it intends to go up...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Dollar smile is ready to start in Spring?Morning folks, Here is a kind of long-term view on Dollar Value. Our last forecast was in 2011 and there were a lot of bullish signs right before the smile - perfect "222" Buy and bullish DiNapoli grabber on quarterly chart. No need to say that smile has started right in time showing outstanding rally within 4 years. Now we're coming to new Smile. According to our fundamental view the global changes in economy are started already but they should become evident in April-May. Particular at this time Dollar Index should complete long-term 87.30 target, form "222" Buy" again and then new Smile era might be started? Currently we do not talk on upside target, but mostly on the moment where dollar could start the rally and when it could put under pressure other currencies, gold and bit later stocks as well - 87.30, April-May...
INDEX:DXY
by Sive-Morten
2
Bearish daily grabberGreetings everybody, Our upside scenario is mostly worked out as BTC has hit predefined 37-38K target but unfortunately missed swing to 28.25K before the rally. Sometimes this happens. But it doesn't mean that 28.25K level should be ignored. As a result of Friday's jump, we've got bearish grabber on daily chart, that particular suggests drop below recent lows and reaching of this target as well. This scenario is short-term, mostly tactical. It tells that until price stands below recent 38K top - it keeps chances to reach 28.25 level. So we definitely know the target and invalidation point. For position taking we could consider two Fib levels inside the grabber's range. The simplest way to act is to split position and enter gradually, to minimize possible loss. Second - avoid any strong upward action, don't be short in this case. We need gradual and slow retracement.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Setup still holdsMorning everybody, In general our former setup is still valid, although it is interesting how GDP report today will impact on it. We still consider 28-28.25K area as interesting for taking long position, stop supposedly should be below 27K Fib support level. 27-29K is an area that vital to medium-term perspective and there is an opinion on the market that institutional investors will protect it, accumulating positions. We will see. As a potential upside target we consider at least 36-37K area, as we also have B&B Buy DiNapoli setup on weekly chart. Of course big black nasty candle should tell you to stay aside - we do not want this type of action when we intend to go long. Only gradual shape is acceptable. Let's see, how it will turn.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
It seems that BTC keeps bullish contextMorning guys, It is difficult to include everything in minor update. In two words - we think that BTC keeps bullish context on daily chart, and expect that it should try to challenge 42K top once again. Currently it is unclear yet, whether it becomes rally to 47 or just wash&rinse of the top to grab stops around it. Anyway, conservative target that we have is ~42.2K and it is based on large upside AB-CD pattern on the chart. If shape of the legs changes - we need to re-calculate the target. This is obvious. We think that recent low is vital point for this short-term setup and price has to stay above it to keep it valid. At the same time, risk now is too large to jump in here. We would like to get the entry at better price. Since currently market shows the clear shape of minor ab-cd action and forms "222" Sell, it seems that it could become the part of downside AB-CD. This pattern, in turn gives us large "222" Buy - just switch on your imagination ;) This is approximately what we would like to see. the final destination of different AB-CD's could change and this requires re-calculation of the targets, reversal points as the shape could change. But general suggestion is like you see on the chart.... It is needless to say that if BTC drops below vital point - scenario is cancelled.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3