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Forexpeacearmy

Not friendly environmentGreetings everybody, So, BTC almost has reached our daily 14K butterfly target (slightly missed) and then it has become the victim of global tendency - "run into the quality" Sell-off stands everywhere, as investors run into USD and US Bonds. The yields of 10-year Bonds has dropped for 15% just within 3 days. As elections still stand ahead, this process probably is not over yet. If our worst expectations become the reality - a lot of frauds will be with mailing voting, Biden/Tramp gap will be minimal and Supreme court will step in - this process could take longer and pressure on the markets will exacerbate. But this is ultimate scenario. Normally, pressure should start fading in the middle of next week. It means that although it is everything good with BTC and we think that 15K target we will see in perspective of 2-3 weeks, currently it would be better to not buy immediately and wait for deeper retracement. We think that either K-support around 12.20K or 11.35K levels stand among most probable where chance to buy will appear.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
12-12.3K area looks interesting to set the bet on BidenMorning folks, Coming week will be the last before elections turmoil and is promised to be relatively quiet. We treat chances to see stimulus pack as low and recent rally mostly is partial pricing-in of Biden's victory. If it is everything clear what will happen in a case of D.Trump victory, concerning Biden, it seems that 12K-12.3K area looks not bad for long position taking, if you anticipate his victory. Retracement probably will happen by few reasons. First is price has hit daily Oversold and butterfly target on daily chart, but we haven't got yet any meaningful reaction. Second - as we've said, week could be relatively quiet, only GDP release could shake it a bit. Finally, here on 4H chart we see DRPO "Sell" pattern and stop licking type of action on the top. They suggest deeper downside retracement. In a case of Biden win, our monthly COP 15.5K target probably will be reached.... If you believe that D. Trump will win - Sell it, using DRPO pattern that already stands in place.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
14150Morning folks, So, stimulus euphoria totally has erased short-term bearish context. Still, this is fragile foundation because if something will go wrong, rally easily could be reversed. Anyway, currently we have the new background. As you can see, our "222" Sell has shifted into butterfly that already has hit the first, 1.27 extension. As price stands at overbought, we suggest short-term tactic retracement to 12.46 - 12K levels. Then, theoretically, upside action should continue to next, 1.618 extension of 14.15K area. BTW, this target almost coincides with our long-term weekly AB=CD 14.5K... It means, that bulls should wait for small tactical pullback and then consider long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Pelosi has made the dayMorning folks, It seems technicals take back seat totally. Pelosi has changed the opinion three times in recent week and rally is a result of last change. It is extremely difficult to trade in current environment. It seems that our short-term bearish context is totally crushed and today all eyes of investors will be on achievement of stimulus pack, as Pelosi said, it should be reached on Tuesday. The one thing that I would like to say that driving factors are very tricky now. We should understand that recent rally is just a product of verbal intervention. It means that if market will not get what he wants - price returns back even faster... Taking this moment in mind, we do not exclude reversal here. Yes BTC could climb slightly higher to 12K area, where 1.618 extension stands. But we have growing MACD divergence and, if you keep longs - just consider this scenario. Bears have no context to get short right now, but if sharp sell-off happens from 12K, your chances will be on 11.7K pullback. Who said that stimulus pack definitely will be achieved?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Fundamentals stand not in favor of immediate rallyMorning everybody, Despite that we keep positive view on BTC in long-term perspective, and still keep our 15.5K target, in shorter-term we worry even not about BTC background but about fundamentals that stand not in favor of immediate rally. Take a look - no stimulus will be provided till Nov.3., Biden leadership is too wide and we think that it will contract in coming 2 weeks that will be supportive to US Dollar. Rising concern on lockdown, coming to end of financial year and holidays will make investors run in cash or money market tools. Ultimately, D. Trump victory could push BTC to 6-7K area. With this environment we're not ready to put the bet on immediate rally here. It means, that on coming week, we see another leg down as more probable. In fact, this is the same AB=CD that we've discussed already, but its shape was slightly adjusted by recent price action. So, we still consider action to 11-11.10K area. Conversely, upside breakout of daily resistance might be the signal of upside continuation, but anyway it remains tricky as we have explosive combination of uncertainty around major fundamental factors.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Wait at least till 11KMorning folks, After initial spike based on our former scenario market has stopped and was put on hold by Pelosi words on rejection of 1.8Trln stimulus that has hurt all markets across the board. BTC as you know keeps high degree of correlation with stocks and this is the reason why we suggest that it could go deeper before it again will go higher. Just take a look what is going on right now on DAX and S&P (-3% by current moment). Besides, pure technical moments here - our "222" Sell pattern on daily chart right at major 5/8 Fib resistance and bearish grabber on 4H chart makes us expect something like downside AB-CD pattern back to 11-11.1K area, where strong intraday support stands. It is no guarantee that BTC stops there, but, at least this level is strong enough to consider long entry... That's being said we're not inspiring to buy right now and prefer to wait till 11-11.1K area first.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Market is overexcitingMorning folks, Not occasionally we have called to sit on the hands on Thursday... so, now we have confirmation of bearish scenario's destruction as market follows to common tendency in euphoria of US stimulus pack negotiations. Markets want to be happy, erasing any common sense, and treating negative news (that no stimulus are provided now) as positive news. So, we do not intend to prevent this. In current new environment market should proceed higher, but not immediately. On daily chart price stands at resistance and we expect first to get moderate pullback, somewhere to 11-11.1K area. Thus, both levels are suitable to consider long entry, but initial stops anyway should be below the 2nd one - K-support area. The point is, that on daily we have "222" Sell, and its minimal target, at least theoretically is 3/8 retracement, which is 11K. Once the technical response on resistance will be over - we expect upside continuation to 11.8K area. Acceleration to butterfly's first target was strong and it suggests continuation after technical reaction on the first target. Although it is possible to consider scalp short out from current resistance - we do not call to do this as market sentiment is irrational, recent push was strong and any bearish position cares excess risk. That's why we currently look only for buy trades. But it is not forbidden, or course...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Better to sit on the handsMorning everybody, in previous update we said that upside action back to 11K area could happen and it even has started, but after few sessions price has lost upside pace totally. Currently we see contradictive patterns among different time frames. For example - on daily, we have few bullish grabbers that still suggest return to 11-11.2K area, while on intraday we see anemic behavior and forming triangle consolidation. Besides, on other markets - FX, Gold we suspect another leg down before next bullish chance will appear. Taking it all together we think that better choice is to do nothing and wait for the next week. Or, if you still want to do something - focus on very short-term patterns, such as "222" buy on 1H chart. Our major setups are still valid, as price has not reached their invalidation points. But price shape on intraday charts becomes less clear and could change.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
The butterfly shape could changeMorning everybody, Actually there is just single update to the chart. On daily time frame we've got the bullish grabber. Theoretically it suggests upward action and here, on the 4H chart I've tried to show what could happen if it works. In this case BTC could show upside AB=CD action very close to butterfly's invalidation point, forming "222" Sell. So, the shape of butterfly could change. It makes no impact on its target and mostly is tactical adjustment, but it might be important to those of you, who are searching change to go short. This scenario provides good chance to make bet on butterfly with very tight stop. To keep butterfly valid - price has to stay below the "A" point (in red circle). This is invalidation point. Don't be short if price jumps out of it. Also don't be short, if price action will be fast. In current situation, as investors stand nervous and worry on D. Trump treatment, upside action on BTC hardly possible. Thus, we think that rally probably will be triggered by positive news on Trump recovery, or something of that sort. Otherwise, daily grabber could fail, and butterfly will go as it was suggested initially.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
12
Pure bet on NFP numbersGreetings everybody, Market reasonably stands flat in recent few sessions as everybody waits for NFP numbers that should have decisive meaning, because of lack of any other information. Indeed, positive NFP supports USD and should trigger downside action on BTC. Because they mean that no new liquidity will be provided until elections. The opposite is also true and poor NFP should trigger upside action. Thus, despite what we see here - any trade now is just a bet on NFP numbers. Still technical picture keeps our bearish patterns and until price stands below 11.2K area - bearish context holds. Besides, on daily chart we see signs of bearish dynamic pressure as trend has turned bullish but price action is stagnating. Thus, bears could consider short entry (if you feel comfortable to trade on NFP report release) with stops above 11.2K, while bulls could either use Stop "Buy" order above the same 11.2K. Alternatively, if still our patterns will work - wait for 9K target. On 1H chart we see only minor "222" Sell. Use this chart together with previous idea - the butterfly there is still valid.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Recent upward action is not sufficient to break the scenario yetMorning everybody, Despite some bullish activity on Friday, by our view it is not sufficient yet to break existing bearish setup on the market. In fact, everything is based on 11.2K top. Bulls have to wait either upward breakout of this level or completion of our major scenario with 9K target. We have positive outlook for long perspective and think that market stands in accumulation mode. But in the shorter term we can't ignore major driving factors on the market - lack of liquidity stimulus from US government, rising CV19 cases, confusing Fed statement and coming US elections make investors nervous. And as we saw in March - BTC is not treated as safe-haven, this is just the source of the liquidity, as well as stocks and the gold. Safe-haven as US Bonds and US dollar. And BTC, despite that it stands well this week, will feel the same impact as other markets this week. This makes us keep our daily bearish scenario valid. On the chart you can see what particular pattern could lead price to 9K - butterfly target coincides with daily AB-CD. Only action above "A" top erases the butterfly and could change short-term scenario drastically. But in current environment chances seems small to see it.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
Very weak bullish background to take long position by farGreetings everybody, So, first reaction, based on our 4H "222" Sell pattern looks nice, and it seems that it should continue, based on the situation that we see on stocks and other markets across the board. Thus, currently we do not see yet the reasons to change our daily view and expectations of deeper downside action. At first glance on 1H chart situation looks so that market could go up as we have divergence with MACD etc. But actually we have nothing else. 5/8 Fib level has been broken, market has not formed the butterfly "Buy" pattern here. Thus, maybe very small retracement is possible and appearing of puny "222" Sell here, but now we do not see sufficient context to plan any bullish trades. I also put 3-Drive shape here, maybe it will be formed, but as you can see it is not very accurate as 2nd drive stands not at1.27 extension. Thus, 3-Drive is also under question. That's being said, if you have shorts - keep them, just tight stops to breakeven or tighter. For long entry - be a bit more patient, wait a bit more and see whether more confirmation will appear. Currently we have not sufficient context by our view to buy BTC.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Minor detailMorning folks, Market was so lazy last week, that actually not much to add. The only minor detail - bearish divergence on 1H chart. As our 4H "222" Sell is ready to trigger, divergence and minor bearish grabber bring additional confidence. All other things stand the same: target 8.8-9.1 daily K-support, invalidation point 11.20-11.40 resistance on 4H chart, just take a look at previous idea chart. So, if you consider short entry - this is good idea to consider. Bulls have to wait either upside breakout and erasing of this scenario or target completion.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
8750$Morning folks, BTC has reached predefined retracement targets and now is the moment of truth. We suggest that downside odds are higher now by few reasons. This is technical picture on weekly and daily charts and recent Fed statement. We think that it deserves stronger downside reaction as JP speech was supportive to USD, but somehow overall reaction stands moderate by far. Besides, here on BTC, upside action is gradual, choppy that is more typical for retracement mode. Anyway - keep an eye on resistance cluster between two 5/8 Fib levels. This is invalidation zone of short-term bearish scenario. It means that you could sell against it, but at the same time - upside breakout of this area tells that bearish context is broken. Now BTC has completed all targets of retracement - upside AB=CD, forming "222" Sell pattern. If you have bullish view, it would be better to wait either upside breakout of resistance or completion of our AB=CD daily target at 8750$ that should happen by our thoughts at strong daily support level of 8750-9170$.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
10K area stands in focus this weekGreetings everybody, So, market was so dead last week that we've made the only update on Monday. Still, coming Fed meeting is promised to be more interesting and provide some activity this time. Everything that we've said last week is still valid. We still keep our short-term bearish view and still think that BTC should show deeper retracement before finally will reverse up and follow to our long-term bullish scenario. Now we have mostly tactical questions on how deep it could drop and from what point it could start dropping. Last week we said that upside scenario could vary, starting from 10.68 and right till 11.10K area. So, 10.60 was reached last week and maybe somebody of you already have taken short positions. This week we intend to keep an eye on 10K area. Close look at 1H chart shows that long lasting action has the shape of bottom and extended choppy H&S pattern. Thus, 10K is the level where potentially the right arm could be formed or failed. Thus, if price holds above 10K - more probable is upside extension to 10.80$ resistance or even higher, i.e. completion of H&S target. Conversely breaking of 10K suggests failure of the bullish shape and direct action down to previously specified 8.8-9.1K area. Possible higher upside action here, on 1H chart doesn't change our view on daily and we still expect downside continuation. Here we treat the action only as retracement, which means that daily downside action could be re-established from different, higher level. That's all.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
15
Minor retracement to 10.68-10.83 then drop to $8.8-9.1KGreetings everybody, BTC has dropped to ultimate XOP target of our H&S pattern directly. This means two things for us. First is, we cancel weekly AB-CD scenario with 14.5K target and turn to monthly butterfly pattern. It suggests that downside action will continue, as price now starts to form right wing of this pattern. As sell-off on daily was strong, we expect that it will continue, and next target is daily K-support area around 8.8-9.1K. But, as price now also stands at support of XOP target and minor 5/8 Fib level, some technical response to this area also could happen. Ultimate level for pulback is 11.1K, but we treat 10.68-10.83 as most probable destination.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
11
11.51-11.52 then to 10.68$Morning guys, So, both our setups are done well. And now, actually we should return back to previous idea of 4H H&S pattern. You could find it in my ideas just two steps back. Now, theoretically you already should have bearish position, as last setup with bullish upside H&S pattern was the preparation and way to the top of right arm of 4H pattern. Recent sell-off was nice and in a row with H&S pattern. Now price stands at daily 5/8 Fib support and neckline. Here it is too later for any moderate pullback. We could let price just to flirt with neckline a bit and then we would like to get the breakout. Any deep pullback is negative for bearish scenario and should be treated with suspicions. IT means that on 1H chart we could consider minor retracement to K-resistance area and completion of "222" Sell' pattern. That's all. Then we would like to get our H&S target around 10.70$. Maybe tomorrow's NFP will help us. Let's see...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Still watching for 12-12.15KMorning folks, Here is short update of our previous setup, use this chart in combination with previous one - 4H H&S potential pattern. Recall, that there, on 4H we're watching for the right top that theoretically should be completed around 12-12.15K area. Market has started gradual action to it. Meantime on 1H shart, right around neckline of large pattern, we have potential reverse H&S that could work as foundation for this upside action to 12-12.15K area. Now it almost stands in place and again - needs to form the right arm as well. Thus, combining of these two patterns intraday traders could use these setups, depending on personal opinion. Want to buy - follow reversed pattern, sell - wait for completion of the larger one. In both patterns follow to classical approach, as invalidation point of h&S is the head. Control the way how market forms it, price has to hold harmonic balance between the shoulders as well.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching on the FedMorning folks, So, our recent "222" Sell has worked, but this is not the major point right now. BTC has formed slightly new bottom, that opens road to deeper retracement within next week. As other markets across the board mostly expect dovish statement from the Fed today, BTC could join this party, if indeed they will be so. It makes us think about upside action to 12.1K area but then for deeper retracement, back to the lows. All this stuff could take the shape of H&S. If Powell will tell something, or hint on inflation etc - this will be not dovish comments and BTC could drop immediately without any H&S. So, today unfortunately not everything in our hands. Forming of H&S and deeper retracement doesn't break yet medium-term bullish context, as H&S target stands above 10.50K lows. So it is just slightly deeper retracement inside longer-term bullish tendency by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
Just few to talk about todayMorning folks, So, our minor downside continuation has happened, although the shape of suggested AB-CD pattern has become a bit different. Still, overall price action stands very lazy in recent 1-2 weeks and almost provides no topics for discussion. In general, we do not see any worrying signs and market still keeps bullish context. It's invalidation point still stands around 10.5K. Maybe some short-term problems could appear if price drops below 11.1K as well. But no of these events now stand on horizon. It means that currently we could do just one thing - keep an eye on intraday charts, trying to catch any patterns on signs that agrees with the context. Thus, take a look, on 1H now we have minor "222" Sell, but what is more interesting - the price action inside the circle, it might be reverse H&S right at Fib K-support area. Once & if it will be formed - that at least something that we could try to use...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Background looks a bit too bearish in short-termGreetings everybody, Daily and higher time frame context still stands bullish, at least until price above 10.5K area. While in short-term, we aware of a bit deeper retracement. Once our last target around 12.5K has been hit, we have hoped for smaller pullback, as we've got acceleration on 1H chart to the target. Still, BTC has dropped more, erasing the whole upside swing, forming bearish reversal one on 1H chart. This, in turn, looks like wash and rinse of daily stops. Thus, it makes us suggest another leg down on 1H chart, before BTC could get the chance to re-establish upside action. Now price stands at 1H support area, where we could get the bounce, i.e. BC leg of future AB=CD pattern... Depending on your view, you could - either buy here with tight stops just below the lows and move stops to b/e asap during forming of BC leg. Alternatively, just do nothing, wait when the whole AB=CD will be in place and then try to buy lower. If you would like to sell - wait for the same upside pullback, and watch for small bearish patterns, such as "222" Sell for example around Fib resistance levels (not shown here). That's actually all that we could do, as market stands really tight.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
Following to butterflyGood morning folks, Market behaves quiet and just few things that we could add to previous view. In general, while price stands above 10.5K - it keeps our butterfly valid, as well as short-term bullish context. Thus, if you have taken longs already last week - now you could move stops to breakeven. If you did not - you could consider downside AB=CD inside the butterfly. In this case we also will get "222" Buy" and better entry price inside the pattern. Butterfly itself takes more common shape... This scenario under "if" sign, because I'm not sure that it definitely happens. All other things remains the same. Upside target is 12.5K... Invalidation point - 10.5K lows.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Above 10.5K market keeps chances on upside continuationMorning folks, Last time we've discussed two upside scenarios. First one is based on minor butterfly and have suggested immediate upside continuation, while second one stands in relation to higher time frame and the pattern that could be formed there. As you can see, our minor butterfly stopped at 1.27 and then market has turned down. Still, this is just minor detail that doesn't change the core. Because we have butterfly on daily chart and while market stands above 10.5K lows - it keeps chances on upside continuation. Nearest target stands around 12.5K. Thus, if you plan to buy - try to do this as closer to the bottom as possible, just to minimize possible loss. Currently price already stands at 5/8 support area
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten