GBP/USD to FALL!The GBP/USD is in the Resistance zone and the candles demonstrates the Three Inside Down pattern. Moreover , the Volatility has widened so we have reasons to expect the price to fall.
Forexpeacearmy
9.1K is a key level todayMorning folks,
BTC dramatically has lost volatility and last week we were able to trade just minor AB-CD pattern target on 1H chart. In two words speaking, I'm not very fascinating with any buying here, as price action shows no bullish activity and no impulse that could suggest upside continuation. Thus, although we have potential pattern that theoretically could trigger higher extension, but I think that bears now stand in better position. We'll see...
So, to change current context market should not form any new lows and has to show reversal inside the previous swing. Now I see only one pattern that could do this - this is reverse H&S. Thus 9.1K level of right arm's bottom will be the key one as for the sentiment as for trading this pattern.
If market fails here and starts dropping again - big chances that it follows to the next target of the same AB-CD pattern that stands around 8.8K area.
Thus, if you have bullish view, you could try to buy around 9.1K with stops below the 9.0K head. Not big stop for BTC market. Target will be around 9.8K I suppose.
If you have bearish view - you could try to use Sell stop order around the head bottom as well - the same 9.0K area. Here first target is 8.8k, potentially it could drop to 8.150K
S.
Keep the same courseMorning folks,
Minor update is here. On 1H picture, you do not see some things that stand on daily chart and 4H chart. In two words speaking, things that I see absolutely do not inspire me to consider long entry on BTC. It seems that some hidden bearish pressure exists here. Currently I do not exclude scenario with downside breakout and retracement to major 8K K-support area on daily chart within a week or so.
Thus, despite that market now stands at intraday 5/8 Fib support, I still think that our AB=CD pattern has good chances to be completed (to say the least). To get total relax and assurance that BTC stands in long-term bull trend price has to move above 10K top. Until this happens any upside action are not reliable enough and might become just minor upside extension before deeper drop.
9K looks probable nowMorning folks,
Market moves very slowly these days, and barely make the single trade on intraday charts per week. As you can see our recent trading plan is done accurately. Now is the question what to do next.
In two words speaking - currently I'm not fascinating about any long position as bearish tendency on 4H chart is still intact. I would consider long trades only if market breaks 9.5K top and strong Fib resistance (where we've taken our short trade by the way).
That's why now, it seems that another leg down could be formed in a way of AB=CD pattern with 9K target.
EUR/AUD to RISE and FALL!The EUR/AUD has recently bounced from the Support line. The pair is about to test the downtrend line and according to EMAs that are going to cross. Moreover , there is a local resistance in the are around the Downtrend , so we can expect the rise and the following fall in the price.
Pullback for ~300-350$Morning guys,
Finally our 1H target is hit. Now price stands at strong resistance area that includes 3/8 and 5/8 Fib levels from different reaction points (K-area by DiNapoli framework) and our AB=CD target brings Agreement there either.
So, today is solid chances on pullback, at least for 300$. Then we will see what will happen. If BTC will be able to hold above 9-9.1K area, it could proceed to 9.7 resistance. Otherwise it probably will turn down.
Bitcoin keeps bullish context by far, but it is very fragile right now. We strongly need breakout of 10K top to speak on major trend continuation. Until this happen, here and there we could get minor bullish setups, as we did, but all of them are tactical mostly. Thus, be sensitive to any bearish signs, stay on guard.
9.4K with upside potentialMorning everybody,
Last week market was so lazy that it is nothing to discuss on higher time frames. Price played some tricks with our H&S pattern, grabbing the stops below initially formed right arm's bottom during NFP release. THus, market makers tricks start to appear on BTC market as well.
Still, our bullish setup has not been erased as price holds above the head and H&S is valid. Thus we keep our short-term bullish view, which means no shorts and focus on 9.4K area. Potentially BTC could climb further as higher time frames hint on 10K area as well.
As we've estimated in our monthly fundamental research - fundamental background stands positive as well.
H&S is key to direction Morning everybody,
Price action this week was so lazy that it was not needed to make any updates until today. But even today we have news only on intraday charts. If you remember from our last update we were considering upside AB-CD pattern to 9.4K area that is major 5/8 resistance. Although BTC was able to pass 2/3 of this distance but it was not able to complete it totally, changing the shape of price action on 1H chart.
Now, we easily could recognize reverse H&S pattern that makes overall analysis simple. As Right arm's bottom is already in place, until price stands above it, BTC keeps chances to reach 9.4K area as H&S has the same target.
This is first trading setup - bulls could consider long entry against the lows and 9.4K target.
Conversely, downside breakout means H&S failure. In this case we expect downside acceleration and BTC indeed could reach our 8145 target on 4H chart within a week or so. This is setup for bears...
From 9025 to 9400Morning folks,
Today, within few hours we expect minor retracement (that will be 222 Buy) to 9025 area and then extension to next resistance around 9400
8.0-8.1K?Morning folks,
Miracle has not happened and BTC barely has completed 1H reverse H&S target. Fast drop below the neckline, below the right arm suggests drop below the head as well. Additional bearish signs on daily chart makes us think that
we could go to next extended 1.618 AB-CD target at 8145 area that agrees with strong daily 8.0K Fib support.
BTC could return bullish context if it climbs back above 9.8K level. Meantime, until this has not happened - we keep an eye on resistance levels and watch for bearish patterns, mostly for "222" Sell", as downside action could continue.
Keep an eye on 9100 areaMorning everybody,
Markets are suspiciously quiet in recent few weeks and BTC is not an exception. In fact, we do not need higher time frames and could keep our journey with H&S pattern here.
Just to remind you in two words our trading setup... We have downside AB-CD pattern and its major OP target is already has been hit. Potentially, market could turn up right from here and that's the reason why we were starting to watch here for bullish patterns. Last week we've identified reversed H&S pattern and opened long position. If H&S fails - price proceeds with AB-CD to its next XOP target around 8145 area.
Thus, as we've already done everything, all preparation, we should control validity of H&S pattern. Move stops to breakeven. Keep an eye on 9.1K area in particular. Downside reversal and drop below the right arm's bottom, tells that H&S is failing and price will drop below recent lows.
Despite that H&S looks not perfect, it is still valid and on daily chart we have some other bullish signs, so chances still exist that BTC could go higher.
Road to 99Morning folks,
So, our former trading plan is done. Retracement was a bit smaller compares to "perfect" setup, but overall shape is the same. Now market shows few features that lets us think that right arm bottom stands in place.
Thus, you have to make a choice for position taking. While our H&S is valid and price stands above 9100-9150, price keeps chances on 9900 target. Drop below 9.1 put this scenario under question.
Before upward continuation minor retracement to 9350 could happen, but I'm not bet on this with 100%. Whether wait for it and 222 Buy or not - this choice is up to you.
Retracement routine againMorning folks,
Our 4H setup that we've traded last week is done. Low around 8.9K area is AB=CD target agreement with nearest daily 3/8 Fib support level. Currently market forms multiple trading setups, it is too much to write them here, so for details watch our video on FPA website. Here, I just briefly number them.
We have bearish context. It means that bulls have no good background for trading, only if you trade below 1H chart. In this case you could consider trade right from current level, because we at daily Agreement support area.
But for daily/4H traders bulls have to wait either 8-8.1K area or appearing of bullish reversal pattern here.
For bears there are more chances to trade. Currently we see two setups. Bears could split position in two parts. First entry could be at 1st K-area around 9.3K with stop above 2nd K-area. If market goes to 2nd K-area - there second part of your position could be taken with the same stop. Minimal target will be at 9.2K area, if reverse H&S pattern will be formed, otherwise, ultimate target is 8'145.
But, anyway, you have to make decision by yourself. I show things that right now seem could work.
For details and explanation watch the video. Take care yourself.
S.
All or nothingMorning guys,
So, the 1st stage of our trading plan is competed - AB-CD retracement hits the target that agrees with major 5/8 resistance. It means two things. If BTC indeed is bearish - it has to turn down right from here. If it doesn't do it it means that it is not bearish. That's simple. Because Agreement resistance is sufficient argument to turn down any bearish market.
Thus, if you intend to go short - here is the moment when you need to make a decision on taking short position. Bulls should wait for one of two things - either completion of downside breakout or failure of current setup. At current moment it is not good situation for taking long position
Daily bearish engulfing patternMorning guys,
We still follow our scenario with daily false upside breakout and suggest that BTC could show deeper retracement, somewhere to 8.8-8.9K area. We have two scenarios how this action could start and one of them is on the chart.
Now price stands in upside AB-CD that agrees with major 5/8 Fib level around 9.9. This is the point where BTC could turn down and start second leg of downside action.
Alternatively, if BTC turns down right here - we get 4H Butterfly "Buy" with approximately the same target.
Classic tricks of market makersGreetings everybody,
Well, guys, it is "big surprise" of BTC price action in headlines today, but, those who trade on classic markets could say only one thing "Welcome to exchange-traded markets". BTC, once exchanges added them in trading list, starts to show the same classic tricks of market makers that calls "Stop grabbing". In DiNapoli terms it calls "wash *& rinse".
As a result, on daily chart we have grabbed stops (overall loss is around $350 Mln.), failure breakout and good engulfing pattern. As a rule, it leads to the action that you can see on the chart - levels might be different, but overall shape should stand the same. Thus, downside action should take the shape of some AB=CD pattern and reach 8.5-8.8K level, depends on the depth of current pullback.
In a longer-term, it could put the foundation of deeper retracement on the daily chart...
We keep our bullish view on BTCMorning guys,
Although we correctly have estimated the direction but missed with the patterns a bit - neither 3-Drive nor reverse H&S have been formed and upside action started from simple butterfly "Buy" . But the probability has the tails...
Anyway, this is tactical question, making no changes to the core - overall sentiment on the market stands bullish and we keep our major pattern valid - daily upside butterfly with the nearest target around 10.5-10.6K level. Until market stands above 8K area we could consider taking of long positions.
Currently, as we also have triangle on 4H chart - it would be nice if BTC shows pullback somewhere to 9050 major support area, forming "222" Buy". That would be just perfect. But H&S pattern looks weak and we can't totally deny idea of immediate upward action right from K-support of 9.3K, i.e. the neckline of the pattern. Thus, it would be better to split entry in two parts 30/70 and consider taking of small position around neckline as well. It seems that previous top around 10K area should be challenged soon.
same direction - different patternMorning guys,
just fast update on recent analysis. Today we get more clarity. Instead of 3-Drive, it seems that market could give us reverse H&S. It means that new entry area stands around 8.8-8.9 level - bottom of the right arm with initial stop below the head. This is the pattern that we're watching now.
Still watching for 8500$Greeting everybody,
Last time we've talked about the point where upside action potentially could start and I said - 8.5K due to some reasons that we've specified last time. Now I could confirm the same - another minor drop really could happen before reversal. As you can see on the chart, we have two side-by-side butterflies that together create perfect 3-Drive "Buy" pattern. We think that is should become the major technical tool here and background of potential upside reversal.
Thus - no shorts, for longs - either wait for drop to 8.5K or you could buy right now but stops anyway should be below 8.40-8.5K.
Also recently we've prepared fundamental analysis of BTC - now we clear understand what impact of the Halving was on the market and how we should treat drop in a Hash rate and what is going on in the mining sphere and on the market in general. You could read it on our FPA site in my Blog.
A usual - the whole video FPA site as well.
Catching the wingMorning everybody,
We continue our journey with potential upside butterfly pattern on 4H chart and trying to catch the starting point of the right wing.
On Friday we've called to buy around 9K area, once XOP has been completed, promising bounce at least to 9.2K. Market is done to 9.3K but then has dropped again back to the same 5/8 Fib support.
There are some moments exist that worry us a bit, for example dropping of the hash rate, but technically - it is too early to cancel bullish scenario. Overall downside action is slow, market even has not reached major daily 3/8 Fib support around 7.8K, so, retracement is really very small. Thus, we are not ready yet totally deny upside scenario.
It means that we continue to do the same - estimate acceptable points where it is relatively safe to go long until price stands above 8K area.
On 1H chart we have butterfly in progress and coming MACD divergence. Potentially this is bullish pattern, but the one thing that I do not like is acceleration to the butterfly target. It means that is more probable that price will drop to 1.618 butterfly target around 8.5K. This is next level to consider long entry. Entry technique is the same - once position is opened, move stops to breakeven as soon as possible. Minimal upside reaction again should be 150-200$. Then we will see what will happen.
7.9-8.1 invalidation pointMorning guys,
Well BTC was not able to complete our cup pattern, so we were out at breakeven. But it doesn't mean that bullish scenario is failed.
Invalidation point is 7.9-8.1 level. 7.9K stands for daily K-support, while 8.1 is a butterfly vital bottom. Dropping below these levels BTC breaks the tendency of higher lows and this means the reversal. Until this happens - BTC keeps chances on upside continuation.
Now price stands at 5/8 Fib level and Agreement area. If you take a look at 1H chart you'll see pretty nice engulfing pattern which is also puny "222' Buy. It suggests upside bounce at least to 9.2 area, so you could try to buy with stops against the lows and then move to breakeven.
If BTC is not able start upward action right from here, then it drops to 7.9-8.1 area and it will be decisive.
As usual - detailed analysis in the video on forexpeacearmy website.
10.6?Morning folks,
So, let's see what do we have today... Please combine this chart with our Cup&handle pattern from previous update.
We have bullish context by far. But what I do not like. I do not like dropping of the hash rate and I do not like exhausting of optimism on stock market too fast. Just on Monday we've got news on vaccine and everybody were happy, but now this euphoria is blowing away.
It means that right now we hardly could count on extended and stable upside trend. More probable is Wash & Rinse of previous tops on daily chart.
For example we could get this butterfly with minimum target around 10.60K. But, this level is above daily tops, where more stops stand. This could push price higher, even to 1.618 butterfly target. So, just keep nose to the wind.
We're in on handle's bottom accurately. Now we could move stops to breakeven. Our invalidation point is 9.5K lows and cup's bottom as well.
Thus, bulls could keep positions while our vital area holds with minimum target around 10.6K. Bears have nothing to do by far.
Do not use too extended upside targets by far. Analysis of all time frames in video on FPA website, as usual.
Take care,
S.
