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Forexpeacearmy

8-8.1K area to considerMorning folks, As we've expressed some doubts on upside perspective - market has confirmed it immediately, showing only flat action within few hours at major support, without even minor bounce. Now price has dropped to our 8604 XOP target that we've mentioned yesterday. Still, as we see clear acceleration down and major support is broken - it makes us consider the scenario that we've mentioned few days ago, reverse H&S pattern on daily chart. It means that we do not see any good chances to buy until market will reach major 8K support area. Next AB=CD target on 4H chart also stands at 8020$
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Minor pullback then action to 8.2 major supportMorning guys, BTC indeed has dropped to next strong support level of 9.1 and at first glance it seems like good chances to buy. At the same time, I do not like how this action to 9K support has happened. We have clear downside acceleration which is not good for bullish reversal. Besides, on daily chart we do not exclude appearing of big reverse H&S pattern, which, in turn, suggests right arm bottom around 8-8.4K area. Combining all this stuff we suggest that BTC probably will show some respect of this strong support area, but it will be just temporal bounce up to 9.5K area, then we tend to idea of downside continuation. If you have bullish view - there are two options. First is to buy from this K-support with stops below 8.6K (AB=CD target inside the channel), move stops to b/e as soon as possible, when price will show acceptable upside action. Second option - ignore short-term context today and focus on next buying opportunity around 8-8.4K area. 9.1K is good support, no doubts, but we have nothing else around. I'm not sure that this is enough for entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Flag consolidationMorning guys, BTC surprisingly quiet compares to the madness that we see on Gold and stock market today... So, we have classic flag pattern consolidation, which keeps bullish longer-term context but doesn't clarify definitely where to take position right now. This is the reason why we have to consider few scenarios. You could choose what you like more. But first - bears have nothing to consider yet, just to keep existed position that we've taken last week with breakeven stop. For the bulls there are two scenarios. First is based on bullish MACD grabber that we have on 4H chart. Theoretical it suggests action above recent top and it might happen that upside breakout starts. If we right - BTC moves higher to 11K target, if not - loss will be minimal, as grabber's invalidation point stands right under its lows. Second scenario, if you do not want to stick with the grabbers, you have to wait either for 10.3K top breakout or drop to our predefined target - 9-9.2K support. In situation with 10.3 level you could use Stop "Buy" order again. Unfortunately this is all inputs that we have by far...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
Following to H&S - 9630 then to 9100 areaMorning guys, So, our H&S scenario has been triggered accurately, which means that we should get more extended retracement now to the downside. As H&S stands in place we could calculate destination point with better precision and mostly it confirms our initial suggestion - AB=CD target stands around next strong Fib support area of $9.1K level. Now market shows technical pullback after strong drop and we suggest that it should be "222" Sell on 1H chart to ~9830$ level then BTC should continue action with major AB-CD to 9.1K area
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
9
Moment of truth for H&S patternMorning folks, 3-Drive setup has worked perfectly, now we're at the top of right arm. This is our potential H&S pattern. If it works - we're going to 9.1-9.2, next K-support area. If not - 11K our next destination point. How is to trade it... Well I would suggest using of Stop "Buy" order to bulls. Because we do not know whether H&S will work or not. And using Stop entry order should safe us from negative situation. It would be better to place it slightly below the top of the Head. For the bears... well, market stands at the right arm and this is the point for decision making. If you have bearish view, you could try to sell, but as higher market moves to the top of the head as less chances on H&S success. With bearish scenario market has to turn down right here, immediately. If it climbs higher then something is wrong.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
10.10-10.20$Morning guys, So, harmonic drop down and reaching of first K-support area on 4H chart has happened. Now BTC stands at important moment - it has to proceed higher or retracement becomes stronger. Here is our trading plan. Now, as market stands at strong support area and Agreement (1H XOP target stands here as well) - it is relatively safe to buy against recent lows. Potential loss is small. We suggest that market should show at least AB=CD action to 10.10-10.20 area. Then we need to take carefully. As you can see on the chart, we could get H&S pattern and market should reverse down precisely around 10.20$. That's will be the thing to keep an eye on. Downside reversal there suggests drop to the next K-support area around 9050$, while breakout through 10.2 suggests upside continuation to 11$. So you could buy against the lows, when market moves to 10.1-10.2 - adjust stops to breakout and/or book some profit. Then just watch the movie... P.S. Bears could consider short entry at the 10.2 top of the shoulder.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Keeping an eye on 13K but preparing to 9.5K pullback firstMorning folks, So, our setup with 9.5-10.5K action is done and now market stands at 4H AB-CD target, and daily previous top. Since we see some slow down on "CD" leg, it makes us think that BTC should show some pullback and we treat 9.5-9.6K K-support area as very probable, because this is double harmonic swing and lower border of upside channel on daily chart. Greater retracement is possible, but now we can't definitely say whether it will happen or not. We will do it later. Thus, it is time to manage your position - book result partially or totally, or, at least tight stops...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
9.5 then to 10.5KMorning guys, BTC keeps our scenario accurately, by showing really small retracement and just re-testing of previous broken tops. As a result we have upside channel on daily chart. Following to this pattern we again could suggest the same harmonic retracement and re-testing of previous top. As initial swing down looks strong enough, this makes us think on 2-leg downside action in a shape of some AB-CD pattern, that should give us "222' Buy" pattern. As we have nearest target around 10.5K - our trading plan suggests waiting of pullback somewhere to 9.5K area and there to consider long entry with 10.5K+ target.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
9.7K is done, next is ~10 Morning guys, Market behaves well by far, keeping all conditions of bullish scenario. As we've said - retracement indeed was shy, although a bit extended in time. Anyway, upward action continues. Now price has hit our next target - 9.7K which is 1.618 extension of BC leg. Once again, retracement has to be small. Price could re-test former consolidation and 1.27 target but should not drop back in former consolidation and should not erase recent upside continuation. If this happens - it cuts chances on upside continuation and lead probably to deeper retracement (H&S could appear). Thus, we could keep an eye on some AB-CD downside retracement and "222" Buy" pattern on 1H chart around 9450-9500 area with next target around 10K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for rectangle breakoutGreetings everybody, Last week was relatively quiet on BTC market. It seems that our suggestion on small retracement was correct. Indeed, market is coiling above 3/8 Fib support on 1H chart, which is also broken daily K-support area. To not bother you with details, we just tell that bullish context is still valid. Besides, as BTC is coming to halving in May, we suggest that miners' activity and hash rate will grow. This will be additional support factor for the market. In nearest time it is not much to discuss. While we stand inside the rectangle we could talk only about small action. Today, for example, as we've got fake upside breakout few hours ago and bearish engulfing pattern inside - we suggest price return back to the lower border of consolidation. Major direction, as always, depends on the way of patterns' breakout. That's why, if you want to possess yourself on major direction - you could consider using of stop entry orders - stop "buy" above rectangle and stop "Sell" below it. But be aware of fake breakouts, place orders with some room to let market breath. Our upside targets are the same - 9.7, 10.1 and 10.5K $. Downside targets we do not consider yet as context stands bullish. Extended view on "The halving" you could read in our blog.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Only small retracements now...Morning guys, So, setup that we've discussed yesterday is done, but it seems that not everybody were in time to come aboard. Today we discuss how to join the rally. But first about targets... now market stands at minor target - 1.27 extension of our "BC" leg, next one will be 1.618 extension around 9.7K, and finally, major destination point is 10.5K - AB=CD target here. As BTC has broken major daily resistance area, and major retracement (which is BC) leg is done already - we do not have any reasons to count on deep retracement again. BTC is not at Overbought as well. Thus, taking '2+2" it seems that most proper level to consider is previous top and minor 3/8 Fib support on 1H chart around 9.2$. Watch for minor "222" Buy around it. BTC keeps bullish context.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Fear shifts the shapeMorning everybody, So, market was frightened a bit yesterday by virus news, as well as other markets across the board and shows different shape. Although it is indeed has tested 9K top again but shape has changed drastically and we haven't got expected H&S pattern. Now we need to change the trading plan. The breakout of daily K-resistance area @ 9K has vital meaning for short-term BTC performance. And our task is try to join this party with minimal risk. Here is what we offer. First, and most simple way to act is to use Stop "Buy" order above daily K-area. Once market will break it, stops will be triggered and you will be on ride somewhere around 9.2-9.3K area. Next target will be 10-10.5K level. Second way is more difficult but it also provides better entry price. We talk on possible momentum trade on 1H chart. Virus news have scared society and it let BTC to show solid rally yesterday with good upside momentum. Now we need to wait for moderate pullback. Our favorite level here is K-support around the same 8.8K area. Here we could consider long entry. The only must condition is to move stops to breakeven when BTC starts to show upside action from this area. Both scenarios reduce risk but have their own adv. and disadv.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
from 8.8 to 8.5$ but what's next?Morning guys, Today's analysis is a bit more sophisticated because we have to consider more scenarios for the market and specify criteria of direction. Our first step is done perfectly. BTC indeed has reached predefined Confluence support area and turned up from it. Now, we have two patterns for estimation upside target. First is AB-CD pattern, which points on 8727$ target and Double Bottom shape which, in turn, suggests that target should be in Agreement with major 5/8 resistance around 8.8K. It means that most probable destination point is the range between these two targets. Next stage should follow down as we just can't miss obvious H&S shape here. Besides 8.8K area is potential neckline of the pattern. Supposedly the right arm bottom should be around 8.5K$. And this will be "Point of clarity" as I call it. Because this is invalidation point for H&S. If market will break it down - be prepared to drop below the "head" and larger downside AB=CD on 4H chart. If market will hold there, I mean around 8.5K - upward action will be re-established, at least BTC has to challenge daily resistance again of 9-9.5K area. Plan your trade accordingly. For instance, to make long entry consider 8.5K - the bottom of the right arm. Bears could think either on neckline resistance or on stop "Sell" order somewhere below right arm but above the Head bottom.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Still waiting for 8150-8250 major support areaMorning guys, The whole week BTC stands inside the range of sell-off candle. And in current condition we follow to the odds. They, in turn, suggest two-leg, compound retracement, rather than "V" shape of retracement. Right now price takes rectangle shape, and it keeps valid as our former H&S suggestion as possible direct downside breakout. This background now is suitable for scalp traders only. Rising back to 8.9-8.95K will the right arm of our H&S pattern and potential situation to consider bearish position, while right now as market is coiling around the "neckline" this is potential situation for scalp long position (although it is more risky). Daily traders have nothing to do by far, as their aim is 8150-8250 major K-support area and potential "222" Buy pattern for taking the long position.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
To 8.9K then to 8.1K ?Morning guys, BTC still has made 1.618 H&S pattern - which is classical, compares to 1.27... Anyway this makes no impact on our trading plan as we mostly were waiting for reaction on major daily resistance area. Now this reaction has started. All that we need to do is to adjust shape of H&S pattern a bit. As a result, it suggests upward action first to ~8.9K area where the top of right arm should be formed and then action to 8.1K in a way of AB=CD pattern. 8.1K is also strong support area on 4H chart. Potentially it is suitable to consider long entry... but only potentially. Thus, depending on your trading style - scalptraders could search chances to Sell around 8.9K against the Head's top with 8.1K target while daily traders should sit on the hands until either H&S failure and upside rally or, reaching of 8.1 K area...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
To 7880 and then up to 8925$Morning guys, Our former setup was done accurately. Indeed BTC has re-tested the neckline of daily pattern and was able to hold above it. Current consolidation has bullish sentiment and we suggest that butterfly pattern could be formed here, because it's target coincides with daily H&S final destination and major 5/8 Fib resistance level of 8925$. Still we have reasons to suggest that upside action of right wing should start a bit lower, somewhere around 7880$ level. The bottom of the butterfly is crucial area for this setup. Because it is not just about butterfly, but about H&S as well. If BTC will drop below 7.7K - it will drop below the neckline which will be bad sign and mostly erase upside scenario. That's being said, while BTC stands above 7.7 lows we keep an eye on 7880$ level as potential area where market could reverse up. Final destination is 8925$.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Next H&S target is 8.9K areaMorning guys, the pullback that we've discussed last time, stands under way. Although, for the truth sake it has started not from our OP 8150 target but from 8.4K level which is daily 5/8 Fib resistance. As we have good upside pace, tail closed candles, market is not at overbought - we do not expect deep retracement right now. Other words - upside action could be re-established from current level which is actually 1H K-support Since there are no reasons to suggest that H&S scenario is over - we keep an eye on next destination point which is 8.9K... If you prefer conservative approach and need more protection - wait for clear bullish patterns around 1H support levels - current K-support area and next one around 7.6K if maret will get there.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
8000-8145$ to tight stops and book some profitMorning guys, Just minor update. BTC is approaching to our first target - H&S AB=CD pattern, based on the head and the shoulder. It stands at 8145$. Be careful around 8K area, because this is also daily 3/8 Fib resistance. So, some turbulence could appear around and reaching of the target could be choppy. Once target will be hit - be prepared to downside pullback. Ultimate target of H&S should be around 8.9K, which agrees with another daily Fib resistance. But whether BTC will go there or not we could say only when we see how market will react on first target...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Additional 7.4K area for long entryMorning guys, It is no need to make big update today as our major pattern is valid, BTC gradual creeps to the neckline and we keep an eye on its breakout. Those who has missed our major entry but still consider taking of long position could think about 7.4K area on 1H chart. Touching of neckline of daily reverse H&S right before its breakout hardly will trigger deep retracement, but some minor pullback is possible. And this minor pullback could be right to 7.4K - combination of two Fib levels from different swings (DiNapoli calls it as Confluence support). If we will get AB-CD type retracement there and small "222" Buy - all the better. That's all that we would like to add today. Let's see what will happen with our H&S pattern...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
Riding on the H&S patternMorning guys, Hope you're well after the Holidays. So - our AB-CD downside retracement to 6.9K area is done, giving us "222" Buy on 4H chart, which is actually a part of daily H&S pattern. Currently our task is clear - 6.9K is a bottom of the right arm and BTC has to hold it - to keep bullish scenario valid. Thus, if you have taken long position at 6.9K - now you could move stop to breakeven and watch the movie. Based on H&S our target is 8.3-8.4K area - near major daily 5/8 Fib resistance level. If you have missed long entry - today you could consider 7.1K 1H support area to do this. Conversely, if H&S will fail - it means big failure of bullish context on daily/weekly basis and downside continuation, somewhere in 4K area. But our sentiment analysis of the market tells that chances on this scenario are not very high... Detailed analysis you could watch in the video on our website.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4