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Forexpeacearmy

Either right now or around 9-9.2K areaMorning everybody, Last time we've talked about market weakness and possible trigger of bearish scenario if market will break recent lows. But, somehow BTC has found some power to show deeper retracement, which, actually we were waiting last week. Anyway, we consider two levels, where market potentially could start dropping from. First one is where it stands right now - this is K-resistsance, combination of two different Fib levels and few targets - minor AB-CD and big flat AB-CD (not shown here). Still, taking in consideration that BTC shows fast upside action, level could be broken. In this case we follow the target of Double Bottom which agrees with major 5/8 FIb resistsance here of 9.3K area. Besides, on daily chart 9-9.2K level is natural support/resistance zone. Thus, it is most probable candidate to stop upward action.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3
7200$ is next targetMorning guys, Last week we've talked about possible deeper retracment on BTC, but to complete it market was have to keep valid intraday 5/8 Fib level. This was a vital area for this tactical scenario. Despite minor respect, this level still has been broken and market now is coming to the 7.6K lows. It means that next stop will be at our major target of 7.2K. Currently we do not have good bullish context as market has broken all potential bullish patterns on intraday charts, showed week reaction on support level. On daily chart we have signs of bearish dynamic pressure - downside action with bullish MACD. Finally we have also Dinapoli bearish grabber, which suggests drop below recent lows. Bears could consider position taking. One of possible solution is to use Stop "sell" order near the 7.7 lows, but not below them.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
80 area is a clue to directionMorning guys, So our last udate setup is done - market has completed retracement to 5/8 Fib support area, forming "222' Buy" pattern and now is the moment of truth, because 8K level is a key to further direction. Downside breakout will significantly diminish chances on upside continuation and, in fact, will mean continuation of major downside trend. While, until BTC stands above it, it still could show deeper upside retracement, in a shape of AB-CD pattern. Its target stands around 8.8 area. Thus depending on your view - you could act accordingly. Bulls could drop time frame more and take long position, as current price lets to place very tight stop, just below major 5/8 level, hoping that upward action will happen. While bears should wait either for completion of 8.8K target or - yes, downside breakout of 8K level. So, Stop "Sell" order could be used.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4
9K could be re-testedMorning guys, We keep our bearish view in longer-term perspective, watching for two destination points - 7.2K first and potentially 6.4K second. But in short-term context, BTC could show upside pullback. Last week we call to not take shorts by far and wait for pullback as market was oversold on daily chart. Now you can see that indeed, it stands flat. We ignore pullback and do not intend to go long, but it should provide us better chances for short entry. Potentially in could re-test major broken 9K level, but only if everything will go positive. Here, on 1H chart we see something that looks like double bottom pattern, but for BTC, to keep bullish chances, price has to hold above major support levels. Now it stands at 3/8 level. Only in this case upside AB=CD will be possible. Conversely, breaking of 5/8 will mean that we're going down on daily chart and pause is over. Thus, our plan - sit on the hands and wait, whether we will get upside AB=CD to 9K where we could consider short entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
6.4-7.2K all time vital areaMorning guys, As BTC has dropped vital 9K area last week now we have only one direction - down. Our suggestion is 6.4K-7.2k area. Here on weekly chart you can see that this is major 5/8 Fib support level and AB=CD target, which creates Agreement with the level. Still, daily/intraday analysis points few targets around 6.4K. Thus, we expand our target range to 6.4-7.2K. For the weekly chart it is allowable. In fact, despite dramatic collapse on last week, BTC shows absolutely normal action in a longer-term perspective. In fact, as soon as market has climbed to 13K area and formed bullish reversal swing - we talked about AB=CD retracement. So, this is normal - AB=CD action after reversal swing. Once it will be completed, we will get "222" Buy pattern here, right? But, this is also tricky moment. Because this is last outpost. Breaking of this area will be very pitty sign and could resurrect major downside AB-CD pattern (at all time high), and its 1.618 target around ~ 2K. But this is ultimately bearish scenario. Meantime, all eyes on 6.4-7.2K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Road to 7200-7500 is openedMorning everybody, Well, it is not needed to talk too much. Few days ago we already noticed our doubts on price behavior and that it doesn't correspond to normal price action of bullish market. As we've pormised the breakout of right arm lows of our H&S pattern triggered chain reaction of breakouts, including last major support of 9K area. As a first result of collapse, market hits daily Oversold and completes 1.27 butterfly extension. This is not good moment to go short right now - wait for pullback to get bearish continuation patterns, such as "222" Sell and take short position. Next target is 7200-7500 area - our major bearish scenario. This area includes weekly 5/8 Fib support, AB=CD target and 1.618 butterfly extension. This is major retracement down guys and by its end we should get sweet entry point for major long-term trend. This collapse is not something outstanding - it is normal. We talked about it two months ago. The question only was whether it happens right now or after market will hit 15.3K target. Now we have the clarity...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
EURUSD~THE BIGGER PICTURELike I Will Always Say... Looking At The Bigger Picture Is Key..!!! For All Those Following My Projections Since This Month Started...You Can All See How EURUSD Rolled Out Smoothly As Projected... Now The Question Is Will Go As For As Hit Our Support Below @ 1.09260.? If We Have A Pullback...It Should Run Up To 1.10769 Resistance Before Dropping Back Down... LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE..:) The Answer Is Yes...But Might Take Some Time To Get There But Eventually It Will..!!! See All Projected Areas Has Been Reach... No Need To Rush Or Chase The Market... Always Allow The Market To Come To You..:) More Update To Come..!!!
Short
by JTFX
Pattern reshapingMorning guys, Today we need to adjust our major pattern on 4H chart - reverse H&S, based on recent price action. Price action is the key to sentiment now. On daily chart we see hammer pattern has been formed, which means that buyers have stepped-in when market has dropped a bit. I we would get the drop and price would stand there start coiling around 9K area - this would be quite different tune. This fast return makes us think that BTC still keeps chances on upward action to our upside target. This, in turn, means that our H&S on 4H chart is still valid - we just have to re-shape it a bit, and appoint as a bottom of right arm recent low. Indeed, if you carefully take a look at this H&S pattern, you'll see that both shoulders consist of two lows - major one and additional higher lows. And this structure was formed at both arms. Amazing. Thus, H&S keeps harmony very accurately and this gives us reason to suggest that pattern is still valid. On 1H chart our minor H&S has failed indeed, as we've suggested and price has dropped significantly below the head. Now on 1H chart we have big 222 Buy pattern - which is a right shoulder of 4H pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Chances on upside continuation decreaseMorning guys, We consider just 4H chart today where it is clear that BTC looks heavy. Current price action doesn't correspond to idea of H&S and increases chances on big failure with potential breakout of 9K area that we've discussed previously. Theoretically bullish scenario are possible and not valished yet, but price action looks irrational. Today is also Fed meeting and we expect hawkish surprises from JP. Thus, our call - do not take new longs, if you keep them from last week - move stops to breakeven and grab 30-50% profit.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Hit or Miss #2Morning guys, Actually, we already have done all preparations for possible BTC action, but traditionally we prepare BTC update on Mondays ;) As you can see, you second chance to take long position has worked nice. H&S on hourly chart stands valid. Now if you stand long based either on our 4H H&S pattern or 1H H&S pattern - move stops to breakeven. The price of failure here is extremely high. Collapse of minor H&S pattern here will lead to cosequenses of failings that drop BTC to 7.5K area. I'll show you why. Imagine that this H&S will fail - market will drop below the right arm. Any H&S failure leads to drop below the head. The head of this pattern in fact is a right arm of large H&S on 4H. Drop below the right arm of 4H will lead to drop below the head as well around 9K area. This area has been tested three times and this time will be the last one. Breakout of 9K area will destroy bullish setup and lead market to next support area of 7.5K. This is a kind of nested doll. Thus, if we will see irrational price action, failure of 1H H&S - close longs and consider position reversal...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Good news for the bulls Morning everybody, So, BTC keeps our H&S setup pretty nice - congrats to everybody who has taken long position according to our previous update. I suppose you do not have any questions guys, right now. That's why, today's update is mostly for those who have missed this chance. Unfortunately I can't put everything on single chart, so detailed analysis you could see on our video (link below). I just say that we have bullish grabbers on daily which confirm H&S pattern and let us suggest 11.5K area as a target. Now, how to take position at current moment, when the bottom of right arm already is formed. We could consider 1H chart and here you could recognize another, minor H&S pattern. Most probable that its right arm will be completed around 10.15K area. Thus - watch for "222" Buy around 10.15K Support level (it is also 5/8 Fib support around it) and this will be another chance to go long. Thus, we keep our reverse H&S scenario on 4H chart and suggest that BTC could reach 11.5K area on next week.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Hit or missMorning everybody, So, market finally comes to our predefined right arm's bottom - butterfly is completed, OP is done as well by minor spike down. This is crucial area for BTC market by two reasons. First, is the failure of upside reversal here will lead to failure of the whole H&S pattern and drop below its head. Second - this will be final failure and BTC will not hold above 9K lows, which will open road to 7.5K level. In fact, this point, where BTC stands right now is vital for 2-3 weeks of action. Bulls could wait for 1-2 sessions and see on reaction (today it is possible daily bullish grabber as well), but potentially this is the level where we have to consider long entry. Bears should wait for opposite - failure and drop below OP lows. If this will happen and market starts tending lower to 9.5-9.6K area - it means that road to 7.5K is opening.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Keep up with reverse H&SMorning folks, We still follow our suggestion of reverse H&S pattern on 4H chart, although we have adjusted its shape a bit and make it larger, but overall idea stands the same. Our short-term plan consists of two parts. First stage is downside continuation to form the bottom of the right arm. Here we're watching for 9875-9935 area where we have major 5/8 FIb level, Butterfly and AB=CD target. This is potentially the area where market could turn up. Next step is to consider long entry. That's what we have for 1-2 sessions probably. Then we need just to watch whether market will follow to H&S and we could focus on higher stand targets, or H&S will fail, which will be the signal of downside continuation and major breakout of 9K area...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Ill Fate :)Morning guys, This is just Ill Fate - just we've said yesterday that BTC doesn't show any signs of thrust, forming choppy price action that more typical for retracement - and here we go. As report has been posted we're coming up... Recent jump could have fargoing consequenses. First is - it keeps our bullish scenario on daily, as price holds above 9K lows - the border between light and dark side of the Force. Second - we see strange price action on daily chart - market erased "222" pattern but was not able to complete butterfly, re-test 9K lows. It turns up in semi-position, which is very special behavior. I hope that something stands beyond it. Now, let's get closer to particular patterns. First is - no shorts by far, this is obvious. Market has hit K-resistance area on 4H chart (combination of 3/8 and 5/8 Fib level), erasing formed drop. Also price stands above both trendlines of former triangle that was broken earlier. This let's us consider potential reverse H&S pattern and action at least to 11-11.1K area... Thus, new plan suggests downside retracement, where right arm should be formed - somewhere around 9.8-10K area and then potential upside continuation (if BTC will not fail there). P.S. on 1H chart we DiNapoli DRPO "Sell" pattern, which could trigger the retracement...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
We still aimed on 9K areaMorning guys, As our triangle has been broken - now market stands in reasonable upside retracement and forming "222" Sell pattern, that re-tests former triangle resistance. No bullish setups stand on the table by far. First is uspide action is too choppy to find there signs of upside momentum. It means that this is retracement, but not new upside trend. Second - market keeps tendency of lower tops and lower lows. To speak on some bullish scenarios we need this tendency to be broken, i.e. market has to climb above 10.7K recent top, which is not the case yet. Thus, currently we have only one clear setup - Sell, based on this '222" pattern. Once minor target of 30% drop will be reached - move stops to breakeven. We treat that chances on challenging 9K area this week stand high, as overall fundamental background has a lack of new bullish driving factors - Bakkt is not here yet, Libra is strangled at burth by provision authorities.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
9000 then to 7'500?Morning folks, So, our riddle is resolved relatively fast, which mostly confirms our doubts on upside perspective that we talk about in recent month. Now, we're watching for butterfly with 9K destination point and challenging of recent lows. As recent downside action perfectly corresponds to idea of H&S pattern failure and erasing of upside 15.3K upside scenario, it is simultaneously confirms scenario with retracement to 7500K area within few weeks. 9K lows are important for BTC. Breaking through them will erase weekly bullish pattern and provides final confirmation of our daily large AB=CD pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Do not read this, its boringSo, it seems that you still decide to read... Market now stands mostly indecision, although it keeps long-term positive mood and stable demand for BTC exists, but it sharply needs some strong driving factor, that could push market out of wide consolidation where it is right now. We believe that ICE Bakkt launch should become the one. Meantime, BTC in triangle. In short-term perspective it will proceed in direction of breakout. Downside breakout should lead it back to 9K lows, while upside breakout will lead price to 11-11.2K area. Thus, if you do not trade breakouts - wait for it will happen. Those, who trades them could use stop entry orders - Stop "Sell" around 9,85K and Stop "Buy" around 10.5K, I suppose.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Deadly mixMorning guys, Sorry for this mix of patterns on single chart, but we need all of them to explain our view on BTC. So, last week we've said that market could try to show deeper upside AB=CD retracement as it was forming 3-Drive Buy pattern. And indeed that has happened. Although we haven't got 3-Drive, but it was more like skewed H&S pattern, but, anyway, upside bounce started. This AB-CD pattern is shown on the chart by red lines. Once first upside action was done - situation starts to develop in different manner as deep retracement has followed. As a result we've got "222" Sell pattern (green). Appearing of bearish pattern in the middle of CD leg is not common and natural issue. This is risk factor, which significantly increases chance on downside reversal. If this indeed will happen - then we could get downside butterfly to 9K level instead of upside AB=CD. We have two invalidation points. For large butterfly, this is recent ~11K top, for AB-CD - low of B point. These are points where you could hide your stops depending on your expectations and direction of position. IMO, all this butterfly stuff looks a bit bearish and I'm more gravitate to downside reversal, but, I'm not dare to absolute view. Finally, as alternative method, you could use Stop entry orders instead - Stop "Buy" slightly above 11K, Stop "Sell" slightly below 9700 lows...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
All eyes on 9675$Greetings everybody, Let's take a look what we have on BTC today. So, our "222" Setup is done perfect. Now, on longer-term chart we mostly consider large AB=CD downside pattern with potential target around 7.5K. Our task for today is to clarify, whether this downside action is continuation of our bearish swing or not yet. Alternitavely we could get larger daily upside retracement and "222" Sell pattern. It will not destroy our view, but change the shape of the pattern. To do this (I mean clarification), we need to keep an eye on 9675 lows today. On 1H chart you could see that market is forming 3-Drive "Buy" pattern, which potentially is bullish and could become a reversal point of 2nd upside leg. Thus, if market fails to form 3 Drive and drops back to the lows - this will lead ot their challenge and following breakout, as BTC is neither at daily Oversold nor at some Fib support right. Conversely, upside reversal around 9675$ will mean at least to pullback and completion of 3-Drive "Buy" target (which is the top between 2nd and 3rd Drives) or full CD upside leg, as maximum result. Thus depending our your view on the market, you could consider these setups. Bears - drop below 9675 and action back to the lows, bulls - using this 3-Drive "Buy" pattern as a background of the trade.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2 cents on BTC retracementMorning folks, Yesterday we said that it is not sufficient context for taking long position and action of last week makes us worry that downside action could continue. Despite that BTC has climbed slightly higher - we still treat this as retracement, but 11.25K area will be important for us today by some reasons. First is, this is short-term border between retracement and "not retracement", as 11.25K is major 5/8 Fib resistance and AB=CD upside target. Also this is natural resistance area. Depending on what will happen there - we understsand the sentiment. Upside breakout tells that this is not a retracement anymore and suggests upside continuation, while downside reversal will confirm our bearish scenario. Thus, you could make a conlcusion on trading there. Bears could consider short trade, based on "222" Sell pattern. While bulls to keep an eye on upside breakout.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Nothing sweet on BTC yetMorning guys, Today we can't say anything sweet to the bulls. Recent action shape doesn't correspond to idea of upside reversal and mostly reminds retracement due reaching of daily oversold area on Friday. Now, BTC is not at oversold anymore, and on 4H chart we have signs of bearish dynamic pressure as trend stands Bullish by MACD but price action shows no upside action. This leads us to couple thoughts. First is - currently we do not have good background for taking long position. Second - it seems that our scenario with large downside AB=CD 7.5 K retracement is valid.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
80% prob. of downside continuationMorning guys, Now you probably understand why we've paid so much attention yesterday to 10.30K area. This is decisive level for Bitcoin market. And this is the reason why we've said yesterday - do nothing, wait for reaction on this level. Now, if you let me, there are few observations: 1. Market has dropped with acceleration through 5/8 Fib support, ignoreing as 1.618 AB-CD target as larger AB=CD target - both were standing at 10.30K, making an Agreement with Fib level. 2. We see acceleration of downside action, which is bad sign for H&S pattern, especially on the right arm. 3. BTC has hit daily Oversold, and I would suggest that we could see 9K level breakout yesterday, if we wouldn't have Oversold support. The cornerstone of our medium term scenario is weekly bullish grabber and its lows around 9K area. Recent daily action significantly increases chances on 9K level breakout once market will leave Oversold area. Of course we will watch for few days, whether wind will change or not, but miracles aside, and taking "2+2" suggests large daily AB=CD retracement to 7500K now as chances on breakout of 9K area significantly increased. This doesn't change our strategy as it is suggested deep retracement before major wave of long-term rally, but it changes the price shape, how this retracement will happen. Currently we put "on hold" and "under revision" our former view of possible action to 15.30K target as it totally depends on survival of 9K lows, which now seems phantom. Thus, bulls should do nothing today, while bears could use recent downside thrust on 4H chart and watch for DiNapoli B&B "Sell" pattern, but, this is short-term stuff...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
5
Keep up with retracement. Part IIIHey folks, So, It seems that our suggestion was correct and retracement target almost is done. It is no doubts that market will hit 10.3K major 5/8 Fib support. Here, on 1H chart, I show you another, wider AB=CD extension (in addition to the one that we showed last time), but it also has the same target and creates Agreement with major 5/8 Fib level. Why it is a lot of attention to 10.3 area. In fact, this is separate line between bullish and bearish scenarios. If BTC will be able to hold above it and turns up - we will follow to our upside setup that we've discussed this week on weekly time frame with potential target around 15.3$. But, drop below 10.3K and failure to form reverse H&S shape will lead first to drop below the head (recent lows on daily chart) and, potentially deeper large AB=CD retracement. That's why 10.3K level is very important right now. It seems that we should do nothing today, as we need to get the reaction on the level. Hopefully it will be bullish reversal patterns on 1H chart. We will be right back as soon as we will see something valuable. Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten