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Forexpeacearmy

Retracement starts... Tactical or strategical?Morning guys, So, as we've said last time - we go from one major resistance to another and nearest was major 5/8 on weekly around 13500$. It has been hit. We do not consider right now our major target here of 15.3K, just because it stands beyond weekly Overbought and we do not need it for few weeks probably. As a result we've got DiNapoli bearish "Stretch" pattern here on weekly, as combination of Fib level and OB and huge shooting star pattern. Thus retracement stands on horizon. But the question is - whether this will be major retracement to 6-7K$ that we're waiting or tactical? For major retracement some extended bearish reversal pattern has to be formed either on daily or 4H chart and we will keep an eye on it. Meantime, as we've got huge bearish engulfing pattern on daily, we could count on AB=CD pattern somewhere to 8.8-9K area. Now BC leg is forming. Thus, for short entry - watch for intraday "222" Sell pattern at some Fib level. For long entry on daily chart, it would be better to wait at least until major AB=CD action ends. So long entry is not the subject of this week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
13500 and 15300$ are next targetsMorning guys, It seems that we have to show our longer-term view, because not everybody watching our videos on FPA website. Our previous updates stands at daily and below and doesn't show total view. In fact our trading plan consists of two parts. Longer-term, strategical one suggests two things - major retracement and take long-term investing on BTC market. This retracement should happen sooner rather than later and take 50-60% of recent upside action. Thus, speaking on current levels, retracement should be somewhere to 6-7K level. Definitely it should happen from important resistance level. And here, on weekly, we try to recognize the levels where retracement could start. Now on the table we have two of them - major 5/8 Fib level around 13500$ and all time AB-CD COP (0.618) target at 15300$. Thus, nearest level that we're wathcing is 5/8 Fib resistsance. Besides, BTC comes close to weekly Overbought. Second part of the plan is tactical - to see what we could do on lower time frames. Now, as market has broken 50% level and we have very good thrust as on daily as on 4H chart, we could watch for DiNapoli B&B "Buy" trades, i.e. bullish momentum continuation trades around 3/8 support levels. They are relatively safe and let to ride on a rally till next resistance level which stands 1000$ higher...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
10100-10200 is next tactical targetMorning everybody, Our 3-Drive "Sell" that we've discussed last time on daily was disrespected by BTC market and has not triggered any major retracement. But this is doesn't change the core of our major trading plan. Sooner or later but major retracement will start, this is just how market works. Our suggestion - once it starts it should reach ~6500$ area. Trading plan now stands as follows. We estimate next potential upside target on daily and once it has been hit, we watch for reaction, whether retracement starts or not. If not - we estimate next upside target. Now, next level stands relatively close - 10100-10200 area. This is AB=CD target and 1.618 extension of previous retracement (you could treat it as butterfly "Sell" as well). So, let's see what will happen there...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
9500-9700$ as a short-term ceilMorning everybody, Our H&S setup has been erased by market as price has climbed above 8300$ on Friday. We warned in our report, if this will happen - H&S setup will fail and market moves above the top (i.e. the head). Still, we keep our larger context the same - we expect moderate retracement on BTC and sooner or later but it should start. Our context doesn't suggest bearish trading and we're interested in bearish patterns only as a tool for retracement. But it is not forbidden of course, to trade it if it matches your trading plan. Now, BTC comes to major all time 3/8 weekly resistance at ~9580$ area. On daily chart market is forming 3-Drive "Sell" pattern instead of H&S pattern. This combination increases odds that our retracement could start from this area. If you plot MACD here, you'l see huge bearish divergence as well. Thats' being said, despite that reversal pattern was changed, our major context stands the same. Whether to trade BTC short based on the patterns that are forming here is up to you. Our major context is bullish and it doesn't suggest short-term bearish positions, as we're waiting for the point to take long-term strategical bullish position.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
AB=CD is done, now to 6600$?Morning guys, So, our upside AB=CD action, based on last report to 8300$ area is done. As a result our "222" Sell on 4H chart stands ready to trigger downside action. In fact, "222" Sell is a part of our H&S pattern on daily. Currently the final stage of our retracement trading plan should start. We should get downside continuation to 6400-6600$ area. This is rather strong support and we treat it as major level to taking long-term investing position on BTC. Thus, bears - could consider short entry, based on "222" and H&S pattern. Target is ~6500$ range. If market will move to 8500$+ - it means that setup has failed and market is going to new highs. Bulls should wait when retracement will be over and provide good entry levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
On a road to 8300+$Morning everybody, It seems that our trading plan is working and here is minor add-on to the one that we've said yesterday. Today on daily chart we've got bullish engulfing pattern as BTC moves higher. Thus, we expect some upside AB=CD pattern that should finalize our upside retracement and put the start then to major downside swing. The only concern that we have is placing of "C" point by far. I draw it a bit lower, in this case AB=CD ends right at 8300$. But, if upside action will start from higher level - adjust "C" point and calculate the target by yourself. There will not be vital difference.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Minor update on last reportMorning guys, Unforunately it is impossible to combine weekly and lower time frames analysis here, so watch the video on our website, but shortly speaking - here on 4H chart I've tried to combined our view on nearest perspective. As you know we keep an eye on possible H&S pattern on daily/intraday charts and its potential target around 6500-6600 area in a way of AB=CD action. This scenario also is confirmed by what we see on weekly. Meantime, although some upside bounce has happened, on Friday, market has not quite reached 8300 area, where we suggest the top of right arm should be. As market stands at strong daily K-support, we think that chances on another leg us still exist, thus maybe "222" Sell will be formed and then major downside action will start. Thus our suggestion for the bulls is to sit on the hands and wait for 6500 area, for bears - try to take position as close to 8300 as possible, but avoid fast upside action. Any upward thrusting action means no bearish positions. But overall setup is still valid and it is still the same as last week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
8300 then 7020 (and 6500$) part IIMorning guys, This is update on previous setup, so it should be considered in relation to the one. In fact, everything goes well, as BTC shows upside retracement, as we've suggested. Price reacts on Oversold condition, our AB=CD intraday target and take a look - strong K-support level (it consists of two different Fib levels) Still, our long-term view suggests appearing of extended bearish pattern here, that should trigger meaningful retracement on weekly chart. And we're watching - whether this action could become a part of it. Now, it is possible appearing of H&S pattern. Actually we've talked about it last time as well. But last time we've taken a look at 4H chart, now it is more representative to watch over daily time frame... Thus, now we suggest appearing of right arm of this pattern, with upside retracement somewhere to 8250-8300 level. Then action to the target should start. AB=CD down creates an Agreement with next 6500$ Fib support, and this could become particular the retracement on weekly, that we are watching for. Also we have intermediate XOP target on 4H chart around 7025 area. You can see it on previous update. Depending on your view - you could follow different setups. Bears could consider short entry around right arm's top, while bulls should wait for deeper support level or... failure of this H&S pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
8350$ then 7025?Morning guys, Thus, our downside setup has done well, as we've got perfect AB=CD pattern, based on daily reversal candle. Now market stands at 5/8 Fib support and very close do daily oversold (not shown here). It means that in nearest 1-2 sessions it will be difficult to proceed lower and more probable that BTC turns to upside pullback. Taking in consideration recent tops, we suggest that most probable target of this action stands in 8300-8400$ range. As a result for could get another "222" Sell. We consider another leg down to XOP target @ 7025 by two reasons. First is - drop to OP was fast, and usually, market proceeds lower in such cases. Second, here, on 4H chart, we could recognize H&S pattern with right arm top around 8300$. This could give us larger AB=CD with the same 7025$ target. Bearish scenario will be destroyed if price climbs above 9090 top, or, at least will not turn down around 8400. Thus, we suggest upside pullback first, somewhere to 8300-8400 then downside continuation with 7025$ target
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Downside continuation due daily reversal sessionMorning guys, As you know, on weekly/daily charts market stands at the area which is friendly for starting major retracement. And 9050-9400 range is the one where this, at least theoretically should happen. Retracement should start by well-recognizable reversal pattern, which we do not see yet. As this is longer-term scenario, price could flirt around the top and spend some time here. In shorter-term, on Friday we mentioned reversal session on daily chart, which finished upside rally to our XOP target. As a rule, reversal sessions have continuation, in a shape of AB=CD action of different depth. As upside retracement is done - now, on 1H chart we have clear "222" Sell pattern, which could become a background for this action. Thus, if you trade on intraday charts and think about fast short trande, you could consider this scenario.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Preparation to major retracementMorning guys, Final upside swing has happened, as we've suggested, but BTC limits it just by nearest target - XOP of daily AB-CD pattern. On daily chart we've got reversal session. It means that chances on completion of 1.618 4H batterfly around 9400$ area are not as good as they were last week. Thus, as our major target is hit - we expect that BTC starts preparation for meaningful downside retracement of weekly/daily time frames. Right now we can't estimate target with precision, but it should be more than 3/8 level. Thus, 6100-6500$ is the one that we will keep an eye on. Later we could estimate it better. It means that on daily chart it is not time to go long. If you want to buy BTC - wait when retracement will be over. There are few patterns that could be formed on the top. Actually, we already have the butterfly. Another one - is H&S pattern when butterfly becomes part of it. On intraday charts market stands at K-support area right now. Scalp traders could watch for bearish continuation patterns, such as "222' Sell' . But the major conclusion - we watch for bearish reversal pattern here and deep retracement.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Momentum upside swing is still possible to 9040-9400 areaMorning guys, Just brief update on current situation. Last time we said, that BTC should turn to major retracement somewhere from 9040-9400 area - and we still keep this view. So it is not time yet to go short. Currently, price action reminds bullish flag and shows definite features of retracement action. Upside action to 1.27 butterfly target was fast, and daily XOP for a few bucks, but still has not been totall completed. This lets us to suggest another upside leg, let's call it as "last one", just due existed strong upside bullish momentum. By this action market should step in our so-called "reversal area". Thus, upside continuation should follow either right from here or, at least from 8040-8050 level. It means, that trade under consideration is "Long", with target inside 9040-9400 (tell the target with more precision later) with stops below 8000 area...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
BTC steps in target rangeMorning guys, Our upside setup has done well. Daily 9042 XOP target is not completed totally yet, but we could say that mostly it does. Now we have some issues that makes the background for our trading plan. 1. On weekly chart, we've got bullish reversal swing. At the same time, previous bearish momentum is strong and it should trigger moderate retracement sooner rather than later. 2. On daily chart market is overbought and steps in our target range. 3. Now we have completed 1.27 butterfly on 4H chart. But, as upside action to the target was strong, we do not totally deny chances on 1.618 continuation to 9500 area. Taking it all together makes us think that BTC comes to the moment when major retracement should start. Reversal should happen in 9050-9500 area. Since we have a butterfly pattern, chances on H&S appearing looks significant. Now we point as target "floor" 9050$ area and "target ceil" 9500$. It's time to think about profit taking (at least on part of the position) and tight stop on the rest.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Market is ready for upside continuationMorning everybody, In our last update we talked on the way of tactic retracement. It makes no impact on our final target and major pattern, but it makes impact only on the way how market prepares to upside breakout. We've suggested AB-CD retracement and forming of "222" Buy as a right wing of upside butterfly. Our target stands at 9040$. Thus, our "222" has been formed, also BTC shows gradual and slow flag consolidation, which also has bullish features. Price spends a lot of time with retracement but was able to reach just 3/8 Fib support, which hints on existence of solid support. So, may be not today, but on the next week upside action should start as preparation to upside breakout is done.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Either directly to 9040 or 7260 firstMorning guys, Our yesterday setup with "222" Buy has done perfect, but today we want to warn you about tricky moment on BTC. Although it makes no impact on the final target, but it suggest two scenarios on how BTC will reach it. First scenario is simple - streightforward action up, right to the traget. IT is no questions with this scenario - just keep position that you've taken yesterday. Second scenario - appearing of butterfly "sell" pattern that should finalize upside action to 9040 target. This scenario you can see on the chart. In this case, we suggest that deeper AB=CD retracement down, somewhere to 7260 5/8 Fib support should happen first (it also gives us '222" Buy inside the butterfly), and only after that action to 9040 will start. How we could trade this. If you already have bullish position - take profit on 50% and move stops to breakeven on the rest. If you do not have any position but want to buy - wait either for drop to 7260 or, if it will not happen - you stop"buy" order on upside breakout of the 8300$ tops.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Buy around 7660 target 9040-9050 areaMorning guys, Our Friday setup has worked perfect, on 4H chart you could see our entry pattern... So what to do next? On daily chart our major target stands at 9040-9045 area and it is not completed yet. But now, BTC is not at overbought there. Also we have DiNapoli bullish grabber. Combination of these factors make us hope on upside continuation in nearest future. At the same time, on intraday chart, BTC hits tactical targets and now stands in retracement. Since we're aimed on upside continuation, here, we could try to catch something like "222' Buy pattern around nearest 3/8 Fib support of 7660$ for position taking.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Double way to go longMorning guys, In last three sessions BTC is coiling around the top, keeping bullish sentiment intact. Still, price is strongly overbought on daily chart and it needs some relief, either in a way of flat consolidation or in way of slightly deeper retacement. On 4H chart we have minor bearish sign - Wash and rinse of previous top, which could lead to appearing of minor double top pattern here and slightly deeper retracement, some where to 7000-7200 area. Thus, for long entry we need to keep an eye on two things - either deeper retracement with the pattern, or upside breakout of recent top. Entry technique also should be different. It is simple entry on downside retracement, but to take the position on upside breakout it would be better to use stop entry order. The one thing that you need to control - daily overbought. Do not bet on upside breakout by using stop entry order, if BTC is still overbought on daily chart...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
9042$ is next targetMorning guys, BTC shows real strength showing just minor reaction on our OP (AB=CD) target on daily chart and ignoring daily Overbought condition. No intraday AB=CD retracement down has happened yesterday and BTC just continues upside action. But our B&B "Buy" has done perfect ;) So, our trading plan suggests two moments. First is - reaching of next target at 9042 area. It stands in wide natural weekly resistance of 8500-10K zone. Since BTC was in downside action for a long time - bearish momentum still exists on the market. This is the reason for our second stage - watching for signs of retracement after XOP will be hit. Maybe it will be intraday H&S, daily DiNapoli "DRPO "Sell" or something. But somewhere around 9K area moderate ratracement should start, at least by technical reasons. This is our setup for few sessions...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Tactical retracement and then up to 8500$Morning guys, BTC shows real strength easily passing through major weekly K-resistance area of 6500$. By breaking this area it has passed intro another trading range and now our medium-term target stands at 8500-10K area. But upward action should continue after tactical retracement. On daily chart market hits OP target and daily Overbought. IT suggests a bit deeper 2-leg retracement, aprox. to 6400$ area. On 1H chart you can see how it could turn - this is our major short-term scenario for few sessions. First is upside action circa 7300 and forming "222" Sell. Then larger AB=CD down to 6400$. Our detailed analysis, including weekly/daily and 4H chart you can see in video on our website or youtube channel. Here we provide view of 1 session.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
2
First test of weekly resistanceMorning guys, As we've suggested BTC continues upside action as it is free space above 5600 and till 6300-6400 area. But yesterday price finally tests weekly K-resistance area for the first time. It means two things. Daily/weekly traders should think about profit taking, at least partially and tight stops on the rest of position. Intraday traders should use current top as a beacon of profit taking on intraday trades. As overall bullish momentum stands strong, we do not expect sharp downside reversal and market probably will spend some time around resistance with multiple attempts to challenge it. Thus, scalp long positions could be taken with target around recent top. For example, now market could drop back to broken channel line, which is also 3/8 support and this is a point for scalp trade.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Road to 6400-6500 is openMorning guys, As we've mentioned previously, to keep bullish sentiment, market should not show deep retracement. Particular speaking we were watching for a kind of diamond consolidation on 4H chart. BTC has completed this condition. Indeed that was true acceleration up, and retracement was shy. As market has no real barriers above, right to our major target of 64-6500 Weekly K-resistance area, it should continue to climb higher. On hourly chart we have nice channel and price stands at upper trendline. As '222" patterns were forming regular, we could watch for something of this kind. Now it seems that 5830-5850 area could be considered for potential long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4