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Forexpeacearmy

3900$ again is the keyMorning everybody, So yeterday we said that now it's time to search setups for short entry. Yesterday market has climbed a bit higher and now it is easy to identify H&S shape here. It means that 3900 area - right arm top again will become the key. Upside breakout will mean H&S failure and upside continuation. Downside turn around 3900 suggests validity of bearish sentiment and downside continuation. So, this is the level where as bulls as bears will make a decision on position taking. We need just wait a bit, when market will be there.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3840 is a keyMorning guys, Situation on BTC changes slow right now. BTC has needed almost the whole week to complete our last target. In previous update we've talked about 4H "222" Sell pattern. Now finally it has been completed. In general market shows good background for short-entry, but we need to get a bit more confidence. Now, on 1H chart "222" Buy is forming and 3840 area is strong support. It is high probability that some upside bounce will happen. We need to watch how strong it will be. If BTC jump up and move above recent tops - it is not time yet to go short. Minor, 30% bounce up and following downside breakout of 3840 area means that bearish trend continues. Thus, we have multiple setups here. Scalptraders could work directly with "222" Buy, while daily traders search chances to go short - either against recent tops or after 3840 breakout using minor retracement.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3940-3980 is short term BTC targetMorning guys, Although BTC has dropped a bit after our last discussion, it has not broken previous lows but returned back to 3/8 Fib resistance and keeps chances to show deep upside retracement that we've expected to see initially. Still, this retracement happens by different pattern - not H&S that we've discussed, but possible "222" Sell. Now price stands tight under Fib resistance, forming pennant pattern, which suggests buidling of an energy before breakout. Thus, right now we expect AB=CD upside action to 3940-3980 major 5/8 Fib level and forming "222" Sell. After that we start watching for bearish entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Downward should start...Morning guys, If you remember last week we were mostly focused on intraday setup, because there are no question to overall context - by our opinion it stands bearish and we still think that BTC has to hit chain of targets, starting from daily 2800 and lower right to 1800-2000 weekly ultimate target. While on intraday chart there was minor question - how far retracement could go. Once market has formed butterfly we've talked about possible H&S pattern with 3980 target around 5/8 Fib level. Now, theoretically market still stands above the lows of left arm, but expect downside continuation by two reasons. First is, this is not the way how bulls should control the market with H&S pattern. Now pattern shows clear signs of failure. The action mostly reminds indecision rather than wide H&S. Second - "high wave" pattern inside the rectangle was broken down. Thus, we expect re-establishing of our daily bearish trend.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4000$ retracement is still on the tableGreetings, As soon as downside reversal has happened, we're watching for moderate retracement to get better price for short entry. Initially we've expected to get upside AB=CD pattern, but as soon as CD leg can't get started and turned to flat action, it becomes obvious that something different has to be formed. Now, with wash& rinse of recent lows, we've got potential reverse H&S pattern. Thus, upside retracement is still on the table, but with different patterns. We're mostly focused on short entry, so do not intend to trade it long, as our context stands on daily chart. That's why we're waiting for either 4000$ level and completion of H&S target, or... H&S failure Scalp traders who trades on 5-15 min chart could think on long position around right arm bottom.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4140$ is done - time to go short?Morning guys, On Friday we've missed a bit with downside retracement on 1H chart as BTC has not formed AB-CD pattern but turned up earlier. Still overall trading setup of 2 weeks was successful and bet on reverse H&S pattern brought good result. Our 4140$ target that we've talked about has been hit. Meantime, our long-term bearish setup stands intact as well. That is what we discussed in our videos. Despite solid rally to 4140 daily butterfly is valid and BTC has shown sharp reversal session, which suggests at least further move down, or, as we hope, re-establishing of long-term bear trend, as our major 1800-2000$ has not been hit yet. We suggest that pullback on 1H chart could reach 3/8 FIb level @ 3895$ which should be suitable for short entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4140 is on the table, but after minor pullbackMorning guys, Two days ago we've said that BTC has hit valuable resistance of major 5/8 Fib level and AB-CD target. Thus, taking in consideration strong upside momentum we keep on the table upside scenario with 1.618 AB-CD (XOP) target around 4140 which is based on 4H reverse H&S pattern. Meantime, now we see clear signs of bearish pressure on 1H chart, as market can't continue upside action immediately. Stops above the top have been grabbed by the spike (wash& rinse) Thus, we expect tactical retracement first to 3/8 Fib support area of 3800$ today.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4140$ is next BTC target Morning guys, Well BTC has completed our short-term target rather fast. Unfortunately it is not possible to put all charts here to show you the whole picture. But, on 4H we have H&S pattern and first 3900 target has been hit. This is AB=CD objective point an major 5/8 FIb level. So, we're at Agreement resistance. Rally shows very good momentum and trading volume. This lets us count on reaching ultimate 1.618 H&S target @ 4140$. But first, we expect minor pullback, somewhere to 3800$ area. For us it seems logical solution trying to go long at first 3/8 Fib support @ 3800$ with stops below K-support (3700-3720) and profit around 4140 target. No bearish setups exist by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3900 is a target of upside retracementMorning guys, I keep the same picture intact, which we've placed week ago. Technical reason for short-term recovery is "222" Buy pattern. At the same time pullback makes no impact on longer-term bearish context by far. To break it market needs to climb above 4300$ area. Now this upside action makes impact only on the daily butterfly shape, but not on its target. So, as we've suggested - we could get reverse H&S pattern and its classical upside AB-CD action to ~3900$ area. Take a look that this level is also 5/8 Fib support. Indeed, BTC was able to keep H&S shape and hold above 3500 area - bottom of the shoulder. Now market stands at tricky area - neckline, trendline resistance and 3/8 Fib level. Good check for BTC bullishness. Invalidation point stands the same, if market somehow will fail to break neckline up and start dropping below 3500$ - we're going to our major daily 2800$ target. Otherwise, upside target, as we've said - 3900$. Thus, bearish traders should wait either AB=CD upside target completion of H&S failure. For bulls we do not see yet long-term perspectives, only scalp trade could be done, using the same H&S with stops below the lows of right arm.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
3500$ is a keyMorning everybody, Finally BTC shows some activity, although I've checked media and could estimate the reason for this splash. Market is so thin right now so, any pool with more or less real amount of BTC could push market in one or other direction. Thus, if you know the reasone, please share in comments. Technically nothing outstanding has happened. This upside action is not enough yet to change bearish picture on weekly/daily time frames. Thus we still keep our previous long-term view the same. still, in shorter-term perspective, as upside impulse was good, we will keep an eye on continuation. Our suggestion is 3500 level will be the key as it works like a border between bullish and bearish scenarios. Since BTC has shown upside revesal swing but previously stand in long-term bearish action - bearish momentum is strong enough and we expect deep retracement first, right to 3500. If BTC will able to hold there, we get reverse H&S and upside AB=CD while breaking of 3500 down means that bearish tendency is re-established and we're on the way to our XOP target at 3000$. Thus, you're bearish - wait either downside breakout of 3500 or completion of upside AB-CD, while for bulls - keep an eye on action around 3500 and possible bullish reversal pattern on lower time frames, with AB-CD target around major 5/8 Fib resistance
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Still keeping 3000-3100 targetMorning guys, Last week we made no update on BTC just because it has lost 90% of its volatility and speculators' activity. Market is not very interesting for active trading. As you can see, even with such events as Fed meeting and NFP data on the back - BTC shows anemic sensitivity and shows no reaction. Thus, everything that we've said last week mostly stands the same this week as well. if you've read our January fundamental briefing of BTC market you probably know that all major fundamental events that should have become major driving factors for BTC in the beginning of the year were postponed. In very long-perspective we see positive shifts and think that crypto topic will survive and continue its development but real upside long term trend hardly start first half of 2019. It means that in short-term perspective we're still watching for our ultimate 1800-2000 target, while on daily chart we expect drop below 3000$ On 4H chart we have AB-CD pattern that suggests precisely this action. Price moves slowly but stubbornly and shows 2 step forward 1 step back shape of action on 1H chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3050-3100$ is next targetMorning, guys, Sorry for extended silence, but actually there were nothing to add to our former analysis. Bitcoin has lost 98% of its volatility and situation changes very slow now. Although market has spent some time in flat action, our suggestion seems to be correct and scenario of H&S failure, drop back to 3000 initially still stands on the table. Recently market has shown at least some activity with minor dive down. Here, on 4H chart we have downside AB-CD pattern. 1.0 target already has been passed, so next one is 1.618 that stands accurately around former H&S head botom of 3000 area. Next our downside target is 2800. Our long-term ultimate target is 1800$
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3
Back to 3000$ ?Morning everybody, So, BTC has confirmed our suggestion and indeed has formed "222" Sell, just AB=CD retracement on 1H chart and dropped back to 3600 then. Here, on daily chart we have DiNapoli grabber that suggests drop below 3600 lows. Here I keep the shape of H&S pattern, just to describe the importance of possible breakout. Drop below the bottom of right arm means H&S failure, which, in turn, as a rule leads to drop below the Head. Our next target is based on butterfly pattern at 2800$. In general downside action stands in agreement with our long term view, as our ultimate all time 1.618 AB-CD target stands at 1800. This should be final leg down before trend changing. And it seems that BTC gradually steps in on this way.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
DAX - take a brief before another diveHere is we update our long-term view on DAX index and EU equities in general. It would be better to place weekly charts as well, but you're experienced guys, you'll get it ;) So, market last week has completed our minor weekly H&S pattern (you could see right at top of large monthly one) and hit XOP at 10200 area. This is also monthly oversold level and major 5/8 Fib support. Taking in consideration previous pullback from monthly oversold and H&S pattern that now is forming on daily chart - we suggest 3/8 upside pullback somewhere to 11800 area. After that downside action should continue and lead us right to the neckline of large H&S pattern, completion of the Head. Retracment up should be over somewhere in March...
INDEX:DEU40
by Sive-Morten
2
Current pause doesn't change the coreMorning everybody, So, it is difficult choice today what picture to show - either 4H or 1H. Finally I've chosen 4H, since it better represents the idea. Major thing has happened already - irrational price behavior on daily chart suggests drop below 3000 and potentially to our 2800 target. Thus, intraday price action is minor episode in this process and has no meaningful impact on the core. Current pause appears due market reaction on support area - 5/8 level and AB=CD completion. So, in fact we have "222" Buy pattern here. AS a result we could get retracement to ~3800 area as a reaction on this pattern. You could even recongize minor reverse H&S pattern on the bottom right now, right? If market will start dropping below 3500 within few hours - it will mean that no retracement will happen and downside action will continue. Whatever scenario will be realised - it has no impact on the major idea. Thus, getting upside retracement will be chance to go short, or breaking 3500 area also will be downside continuation. This tactical setup makes no impact on bearish scenario.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
2800$ becomes probableMorning guys, Last week we shared with our doubts on upside perspectives and our reverse H&S pattern in particular, because of irrational market behavior around its neckline. It was too calm without any momentum, slow and heavy, which is not typical for H&S pattern, where right arm should be controlled by bulls and upside acceleration should happen. As a result, we was needed breakout of 3600 area as a confirmation of H&S failure and bearish scenario. Now we see that market dropped below it and stands stable around, whitout any atempt on pullback. Take in consideration that all this stuff has happened on background of weak dollar, when all currencies across the board shows positive dynamic. Depsite that here we could recognize another potential "222" Buy pattern, H&S failure and solid sell-off in recent sessions are more valuable bearish context. As market is not at Oversold, we suggest that BTC could start final leg down that we expect to get before reversal will start. Our long-term target stands at 1800-2000$ area. Still, next daily step that could happen is downside butterfly pattern, with 1.27 target around 2800$ area. That is what we will keep an eye on.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3600$ is a moment of truthGreetings, although market has shown minor upside spike, after our recent discussion, strong collapse has followed shows inability of the market to break neckline of daily H&S pattern. Although major invalidation point of right arm's bottom @3600$ has not been broken yet, and theoretically H&S is still valid, but this kind of action is irrational for H&S pattern and should be treated as big flaw in bullish context. Now we should at least escape any long positions. For short entry there are two different setups - either wait for bearish continaution patterns, such as '222" Sell, based on recent drop, or wait for breakout of 3600 area, which suggests drop below 3000$ and action to our all time 1800$ target that we still keep on the table...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4300$ is next target probablyMorning guys, Despite we have worried about bullish context due weak performance but worst expectations hopefully were in vain and market with delay but still has shown upside breakout that we were waiting for. So, first target of 4040, is completed. This is actually AB-CD based on 4H H&S pattern and two butterflies. Now we're coming to most interesting thing, as BTC stands right under neckline of larger daily H&S. Bulls could keep longs, just do not forget manage stop orders. Since we have nice acceleration up, there are not zero chances, that market will proceed to XOP target at 4300. Retracement now stands very gradual and smooth. We have "222" Buy on 1H chart and bullish grabber here, on 4H, which suggests action above recent tops.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Too flat action increases risk of failureGreetings guys, Although our H&S pattern on daily chart is still valid, at least on paper, but the action that we see on 4H time frame increases chances of failure. As you can see the daily right arm bottom takes the shape of smaller 4H H&S pattern. Normal price action suggests upside acceleration as soon as H&s has been formed. But here we see opposite picture - flat action and triangle shape. This is not normal. Only external driving factor could push BTC up, but technical picture warns that something is wrong. So, if you already have longs - move stops to breakeven or, just under the lows of daily right arm. If not - stands a side for awhile.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten