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Forexpeacearmy

63.5-64K for short entryMorning guys, In recent updates we've said a lot about overall situation and big picture with daily reverse H&S that is ready to fail, and probably will fail. Today we could focus on particular trading setup that is based on recent market drop. This is DiNapoli B&B "Sell" trade, a.k.a "Momentum" trade. The background is simple - strong downside momentum on daily chart that should reverse any 1st pullback. Thus, we could use it to sell into. By looking at 1H chart, it seems that 63.50-64K might be suitable for this purpose. Let's keep watching.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
60K is a final checkMorning guys, Today BTC hits 62.50$ - our downside XOP target on daily chart (see previous update), and 62.50-64.2K area was mentioned as the one where potential right arm of big reverse H&S pattern should be formed. Nominally, this pattern is still valid, but today I show you performance on 1H chart that clearly shows problems for bulls. Normally, when market is ready to go with the bullish context - it shows very logical action, completing downside targets, forming bullish reversal in predefined place. Now take a look - as H&S as 3-Drive patterns have failed. This is bad sign for bullish context. This is the reason why we do not consider any long positions again, and prefer to watch for 60K support area. Because this is last chance for the bulls. Downside breakout will open the road to 50-52K area. Once 60K area will be touched - watch intraday charts. Market has to form bullish reversal pattern if bulls still control situation. I set this idea as "neutral", because to qualify it as bearish we need 60K downside breakout. At the same time I can't call it as bullish because of reasons specified above.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
64-64.5K areaMorning folks, Recent Fed meeting results have made impact on short-term BTC performance as well. Although our major bullish context based on daily reverse H&S pattern remains valid, BTC could try to move slightly lower. So, the right shoulder on daily chart will be more harmonic to the left one. In general, until BTC stands above 61K - H&S pattern will remain valid. Meantime, on 4H chart we've got bearish engulfing pattern that has a target around 64-64.5K area. We will se how it works and then return back to idea of long entry with major daily bullish pattern. Today I market setup as "bearish" because it relates to intraday action.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
Still watching for 74.5-75K targetMorning folks, Mostly this idea is a continuation of the previous one, but there I've put too many updates already. So let's make the new one... BTC also was hurt a bit by NFP numbers on Friday but not as strong as EUR or Gold market. We suggest that it keeps bullish context valid. Besides, we've got bullish grabber on Friday as well. Our nearest upside target remains the same - around 74.5-75K area. The trades that you could make here are depend on pattern that you would like to follow and personality. Speaking about big reverse H&S - nothing has changed here. You could wait for 63-64K area where the right arm should be formed, you apply gradual accumulation of the position. Since we had bearish reversal session on Friday, market could move slightly lower and if you're aimed on the butterfly, you could wait for slightly deeper retracement. Finally the grabber - if you want to trade grabber then you need to buy right at current levels. Or you could combine it with butterfly trading as well... THey have just slightly different stop levels. So, choose your poison. :)
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
74.75K seems the nearest oneMorning folks, So, as we've said, if BTC breaks 69K it should go higher. That we see now. Nearest upside target is based on the same pattern - reverse H&S that we're trading for a couple of weeks already. It stands at 74.75K But at the same time, I would like to show you this one - reverse H&S on top. If we see that BTC starts falling fast, it could be not the signal of reversal but the forming of the right arm. Just be prepared to this scenario if BTC starts showing fast downside action. For primary scenario (direct upward action to 74.75) we consider two support levels, where long entry might be interesting - 68K and 66.10K We consider no shorts by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Two targets that could change everythingMorning folks, So, our H&S starts perfect. Tactically we've missed a bit, expecting upside turn around 59.5K area, but data releases and putting down of ETH ETH perspectives have supported earlier upside reversal. Also Hong Kong is very active with opening domestic ETF's that boost BTC demand among Chinese population. Now our H&S pattern has two target. Nearest and the most important one is around 69.15K. It is vital because it directly relates to monthly bearish engulfing pattern. While next upside target with our H&S will be 74.74K. If 67-69K will be broken, then monthly bearish pattern will be erased and it will be quite bullish. That's being said, let's keep watching for 69.15K first and then for reaction around it.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
We need to check 59-59.5K areaMorning folks, So, everything is going with the plan by far. Market has reached ~60K area where potential right arm of our 4H reverse H&S pattern should stay. But here is a minor tricky thing. Overall performance doesn't look bullish by far. On 1H chart it even looks bearish. We have downside acceleration and uncompleted XOP target that makes an Agreement with 59.5K Fib support level. Let's treat it as the support of last resort for the short-term trading setup. So, keep it short, there are to options. If you scare to miss the trade, you could try to take long position right now but at the same time place stop below 59K or even better below 58.3K area. Conversely, conservative approach tells that it makes sense to wait when&if BTC hits 59K support area and then see what will happen. Personally I like the 2nd way more. Besides, we could totally escape possible collapse if it will happen and BTC will just break 59K support area down...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for reversal signsMorning everybody, So, the first step of our trading plan is done - market is around 61K, which is intraday strong support area. It is preferable if upside action starts from here, although downside continuation to next support and XOP target will not become a tragedy yet, but will be looking worse with lower chances on success. Now we need to watch for small bullish patterns around this area. Once and If we get it - we could consider long entry. Our nearest upside target is around 67K
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
First - watching for 62K, then 67KMorning folks, So, everything goes with the plan, although the upside bounce that we've discussed is stronger than we thought. It means that bearish long-term patterns are still valid, say on monthly chart, we do not consider short entry right now. Vice versa, there are a few bullish patterns might be formed intraday. First is reverse H&S with 67K neckline, second is, the same on 1H chart. Thus, if we get lucky and the pullback to ~ 62K area prior BTC hits 67K , we could consider long entry. Otherwise, wait when BTC hits 67K neckline and wait when the right arm will be formed, as usual.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
50.2-52K mid term targetMorning guys, So it seems we've correctly reversed our position down from 62K area. Today we increase the scale a bit and take a look at daily chart. Indeed BTC has broken triangle down as we've suggested. But it is more important that it also has broken K-support level and only oversold stops the downside continuation. This makes us to consider next downside target as 50.5-52K where next strong support stands. But before that BTC could show tactical bounce up to 60.5 area because of oversold, and maybe re-test broken triangle line. I'll anyway mark this update as "bearish" although first we could get the upside bounce... Profit to everybody, All the best...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
H&S is failingToday guys, update is very short. This is the only picture that we need for now, although we cold find more bearish signs on higher time frames as well. Despite that BTC has tried to show couple of pullbacks up from our 62-62.5K area - reverse H&S has not been formed. Other words, market was not able to confirm bullish reversal and other bullish patterns that we have. It means only one thing - inability to do this and that we have bearish context instead. As nearest target we suggest re-testing of recent 59K lows. Potentially bearish consequences could be more heavy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
63K looks interesting for long entryMorning folks, As we've promised on Thu last week, the close of the week will be most important thing that could change everything. That has happened. AS BTC has closed 5K higher - we haven't got any bearish engulfing on monthly chart for now. But what is more important - we have bullish grabber on weekly, suggesting that price should challenge ATH again. Not necessary the breakout should follow, but re-test it at least. Thus, based on intraday performance, it might happen that now we're getting reverse H&S pattern, and an area around 63K where the right arm might be formed, seems interesting for long entry...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
64-65K pullback is possibleMorning folks, Although BTC situation is changing and not to the good (we've talked about last time), market now stands at strong support area. 59-60K is strong daily support and oversold level. While here, BTC has done "222" target, suggesting that at least 30% pullback, somewhere to 64-65K area is possible. But, in longer term, drop under 60K will push price down to 50K at least, because of bearish patterns on monthly and weekly charts. Right now we do not consider any shorts, as market is oversold. If you consider intraday bullish trade - wait for clear reversal patterns there that we do not have yet, before taking the position. But anyway they will be formed somewhere around.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten