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Forexpeacearmy

Context is still bearishMorning folks, So, unfortunately for BTC - it is traded 24/7, so while other markets were closed, BTC has taken all the mess from geopolitics. With recent collapse, it is logical to ask - where all those people who were taking about "safe haven", "gold replacement" etc... Now due geopolitical turmoil in weekend, our short-term bullish context has been destroyed, so H&S was not able to reach the target and has been erased. As a result, for now short-term context has turned bearish and we think that it is not time yet for taking new long position. On daily chart MACD is bearish and we've got bearish reversal swing last week. From this standpoint, current upside action might be just a retracement. To start thinking about new long entry we have to get bullish pattern, say reverse big H&S on 4H chart or any other. Daily trend has to turn bullish again. Now we have nothing of it. Thus, the situation is not ready yet for new purchasing. On 1H chart we need to watch how upside action will develop. Picture could improve significantly if BTC will return back to the top, but now it is still a retracement with predefined upside targets.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Plan works perfect so far, showing 76-77.3K targetMorning everybody, So, our H&S pattern starts perfect. The only thing that we've missed is the neckline top - we thought it should be around 71K but it has been formed around 73K, which is even better in perspective. So, 2nd stage of the plan is done as well - right arm stands in place. We also have bullish grabbers on daily chart. All this stuff, based on H&S suggests action at least to ~75.8-76K area, while daily expansions point on 77.3K. Invalidation point of this scenario is 67.5K right arm's lows. If BTC drops below it, our view will turn bearish based on H&S "Failure" pattern. But for now we have no reasons yet to consider bearish setup.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
The plan is changing... at least the 2nd halfMorning folks, So, on Thursday we've suggested "60-67-60" action, and there are no questions to the first part. Indeed rally was really nice. But, the 2nd part of action from 67K down to 60K was based on potential weekly bearish engulfing pattern, if you remember. But it has not been formed as you could see. Together with other bullish signs that it is too long to describe here, now we cancel the idea of action to 60K and keep bullish view. Particularly speaking, upside breakout could come with reverse H&S on top. Now market is still coming to neckline and target around 71K. But, if breakout still happens, we consider 77.30K as the next destination point...
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
from-67K - to- 60K action is possibleMorning fellows, So our breakout setup is done well. What is looking intriguing now - BTC behaves quite different to gold, have you signed this? Recent performance, especially if we get good NFP tomorrow suggests that retracement might be a bit deeper. We consider 60-60.5K area as potential target (because we could get weekly bearish engulfing pattern by this week). But now BTC is overextended down on daily chart, so this action to 60.5K could start not know but after minor pullback, somewhere to ~ 66.5-67K area supposedly. So, how to better mark this idea as "bearish" or "bullish?" Let's mark as "bullish", because downside action if it starts, probably will start on next week.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Goldmine for breakout tradersMorning folks, So, it seems that "222" Sell last time was not a bad idea at all. Despite that BTC stands in rectangle we've got two nicely looking downside bounce. Now we have some nuances with the BTC performance, but to keep it simple it is mostly suitable for those who like to trade breakouts. If you do not want to wait a bit for clarity on daily chart, in what direction market still will follow, but want to trade today we could offer you few options. First, is, if you want to bet on upside breakout and take long position - try to do it as closer to the rectangle bottom as possible. For example - it is nice "222" Buy is forming and almost ready to go. The opposite is true for bearish position. Now we have no patterns, but they could appear later. Finally, for the breakout, if you do not care on direction. The simplest way to act is to use Stop Sell and Buy orders at once, placing them just outside of rectangle. When breakout happens, you just cancel the opposite order. That's all. I mark today's idea as "neutral", because it is volatility-based.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Control the riskMorning folks, So, our H&S is done well, and already has reached the minimal target. Now the major question whether it will go to 74.3$, a kind of "bonus" upside target. Maybe.. But, today we would think about protection and risk control, rather than about some bargain. On daily chart we've got bearish grabber that is taking the shape of '222" Sell here, on 1H chart. We're coming to PCE report and long Easter Holidays. BTC could go higher, but today we would focus on risk control instead. Think about some risk management of long position - booking totally or partially, stop tightening etc. Bears by the way, could think about short entry. Chances on success are low, but potential money risk is small as well. If you succeed, result will be 10K+ per coin. It worthy at least to think about it... Let's mark this report as "bearish"due described issues.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten