AUDUSD buy opportunity AUDUSD This week the price action has been up and up volatile Today the up was pressed with the price moving up to test a high upward slopping trend line That trend line was broken on separately occasions
Forexpeacearmy
2nd attempt is betterMorning folks,
So, let's go back to our H&S pattern, which is a 2nd attempt to go long. You could see that it starts working. Right arm stands in place and now we could move stops to breakeven.
Second is - we could estimate targets. First one is H&S AB=CD around 69.70K. If we get lucky, we could see 1.618 expansion to 74.3K.
Finally, if you've missed entry but still would like to step it - on 1H chart we have local "222" Sell. Here you could watch for two nearest support levels. Just avoid buying if we get strong downside action. Drop under 64.50K Fib support also will be a bad sign, because it breaks the nature of reverse H&S pattern that should be bullish. And strong drop with erasing of the right shoulder definitely will be the sign of H&S failure.
Keeping this simple rules in mind should let us to pass this journey without big shocks.
GBPJPY sell opportunity more falling GBPJPY selling expected at the last meeting removing the tightening bias but reaffirming that they will keep low
2nd chance for long entry?Morning folks,
Despite how great Monday's setup was looking, BTC was not able to compete it. H&S has failed and BTC dropped almost to ~60K area.
Still, the same context is still valid - BTC at daily oversold. But this time it is also at strong K-support area. Thus, our attempt for to take the long position continues. This time, pattern looks better, and hopefully it will be more successful. 63.5-64.5K is an area to watch for...
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Nice bullish signalMorning folks,
Although we were a bit sceptic last time about good entry chance, because we saw how BlackRock just buying out any, even minimal deep on the market. Still, market was able to reach 65K area that we've discussed on Thursday.
65K is also daily oversold. Since we have strong upside momentum, upside bounce should be at least 5/8, which is around 70K, but this is minimal target, it could move higher.
On 1H chart we have great pattern on the back of this idea - reverse H&S. It is not totally completed yet, but shape is becoming clear. So, depending on what AB-CD pattern we will get, based on this pattern, we get corresponding upside target. For now it is around 71-72.5K
We consider no shorts by far.
GBPJPY buy still hold for movement bullish In the bigger pictures Up trends from low is in progress Medium term outlook will stay bullish as long as support holds Next target is long term resistances
Low chances for good entry piontMorning folks,
So, BTC keeps it unstoppable rally, and is strongly overbought on weekly chart. But for now market totally ignores this. Yes, upward action is slowing, we have small tactical bearish grabbers on 4H chart, but it gives low chances on moderate retracement.
BTC successfully holds above previous ATH, showing no significant retracement and no doubts - this is bullish sign. Besides it has no strong resistance levels above, right up to our 85-88K target.
That's being said - common technical rules recommend to not buy and way for the pullback. But would you wait or not - you need to decide by yourself.
Here we just acknowledge that we do not have attractive entry point. Only, if by some reason, market will show pullback to 65K or at least to 68K, it might be interesting.
The same is for bearish positions - no reasons by far.
Better to wait a bitMorning folks,
So, on Monday we've sent relatively modest target - around 65.5K, it was completed.
Now BTC stands at weekly overbought and strong upside continuation is hardly possible immediately. Still, intraday scenarios are also not perfect. At first glance, on 4H chart, with the grabbers aboard, we could count on tactic downside deep. But, on 1H chart (not shown here), price performance is not quite bearish.
If we consider bullish position instead, we could take it only when grabbers will be erased, but this put entry level too close to the previous top that is upside target for now, because BTC is at overbought.
Thus, both scenarios are not perfect and care higher risk than usual. That's why our conclusion is to wait...
Time to take a look at big pictureMorning folks,
Well, as all targets that were standing inside previous swings are done, now its time to increase the scale. No much comments are needed here. Our next upside target is 85K. Also action between 65 and 69K levels seems important. If downside retracement will happen - we could get upside butterfly as well an entry chance around 40-45K area.
Great Pump, but what's next?Morning folks,
Well, rally looks great, but absolutely unnatural and has no relation to normal market dynamic. It is pumped externally. This is not a surprise when 80% of spot market and all transactions and depository operation stand in one hands. Bubble? Yes, but it is not totally ripen yet, need some time to grow more...
Our setup has worked perfect whatever you've done - either use Stop "buy" order for breakout or just bought near the lows of our consolidation. Our next upside targets are 70K, i.e. previous top and 80-85K.
Now price is at overbought and it makes sense to wait for some relief. We will be watching DiNapoli patterns, based on the thrust - either DRPO "Sell" or B&B Buy.
It seems that any analysis of BTC market very soon will become useless, because it is not controlled by market natural force any more, it is concentrated and market goes with the direction that BlackRock& Co will choose.
Adv. on bearish sideMorning folks,
It seems that market is tired a bit from previous ETF rally. Major drivers are worked out already, and market needs something new. Supposedly coming April halving and possible ETH ETF approvement in May are most probable ones.
Right now price stands in tight consolidation, which is might be treated as a bullish sign. At the same time, this consolidation is forming at strong Monthly resistance area of 48.5-52.5K, so some downside reaction seems very probable. This could make any rally here very short term and unstable. And this keeps us aside from taking any long positions by far.
On intraday charts it is few things that we could consider - bets on breakout of the range might be done by using Stop entry orders near the borders. If you still would like to buy, we have some shape of reverse H&S pattern on 1H chart, that theoretically you could try to use. But, this is very weak setup.
Contradictive patternsMorning folks,
So, intraday H&S patterns that we've discussed last time has started very accurately as we've suggested. But, BTC was not able to break the top, forming minor W&R, grabbing stops around it. Thus, this H&S has failed. This is bearish moment.
Dont' forget, that market stands at very unstable area of strong 52K monthly resistance.
On daily chart we have two opposite patterns. First is DRPO "Sell", second is bullish grabber. With mentioned situation on intraday charts, it seems that DRPO has better chances. Anyway, if you're conservative - it would be better to stay aside.
Still there some advanced ways of trading exist - we provide it in video on our website. It is too much typing to describe it here.
51.5K seems vital for short termMorning folks,
So, BTC hits our Yearly Pivot Resistance 1 level and in nearest 1-2 months, it will be really decisive time for next direction on the market.
Meantime, while BTC is still coiling around, let's take a look at lower time frames. Context remains bullish, so we do not consider any shorts by far. We suggest that 51.5K area will be vital in nearest term. If BTC holds above it - it could start forming reverse H&S on top with upward continuation and start moving to our next 55.5K target.
If it fails, then we could get Double Top here and deeper downside pullback first.
Thus, if you want to buy - think about 51.5K area, it could let you to place tight stop.
Waiting for the pullbackMorning folks,
So, upside target of 52.2$ is reached. Now price stands at strong resistance area, including monthly major 5/8 level, Yearly Pivot Resistance 1 and upside weekly XOP target. Additionally we see that daily butterfly has been completed and market is overbought here.
Although we do not exclude some wobbling in 52-55K area, so 1.618 butterfly target also could be reached, in nearest time we will be watching for natural downside reaction on strong support area.
Now we do not consider any new longs positions. For intraday short positions it seems too early as well, as market has not started yet any reaction on this level
Tactical pause is necessaryMorning folks,
So, 47.2K target is also completed. The next one is 50.50-52K, which is a big monthly cluster, including upside weekly XOP target, our XOP here, from reverse H&S target that we're trading now (it stands around 50.50K), Yearly Pivot Resistance 1.
But for now it seems market needs some tactical pause. Now major 5/8 monthly Fib resistance is hit, and price is overbought on daily chart. Thus, appearing of small 1H H&S pattern could trigger tactical natural pullback before market will proceed to the next target
47.22$Morning folks,
Sorry for a bit messy chart, just try to put everything necessary here. So, our minimum target is mostly done - 45K area. Next one is 47.22K - H&S major target.
But, since the 45K area is moderate resistance level, it is normal to expect tactical down reaction on it, somewhere to 44K area at least. Before upside action will continue
Up right now?Morning folks,
So, today we take a look at daily chart finally. Last time we've discussed upside bounce that should become the right arm of H&S pattern on 1H chart. Indeed, upside bounce has happened, and it seems that it has become the arm of H&S, but there are few nuances...
H&S on 1H chart stands too distorted and skewed to the upside. And we do not want to rely on it. Recent price performance also doesn't match to idea of bearish pattern.
On daily chart we've got tweezer bottom and obvious pennant pattern under 3/8 resistance - two bullish signs. So, we do not exclude that upside action could continue. We keep our nearest target at the same 45K area. So, it seems that our reverse H&S pattern, that we're considering for last 2 weeks - might be in action already
Some practical issuesMorning folks,
This post should be considered as practical add-on to our major upside scenario. Now we consider reverse H&S pattern on 4H chart. Market has reshaped it a bit, so we haven't got desirable retracement yet (i.e. right arm is not formed yet).
But, it could be soon. On 1H chart you could see potential downside H&S. BUt the problem is - the 4H arm should be (or could be) around 41.5K, while the target of 1H pattern suggests lower levels.
At the same time, you could see that on 41.5K we have very strong support area - this is downside XOP (1.618 AB-CD target) and K-support area.
That's why we consider this area as suitable for long entry. If even later market will form 1H HS& and keep going lower - at first touch we should get the bounce with high degree of probability. Because right arm here has to be formed as well. This makes attempt to go long here relatively safe and with ability to place very tight stop.
Everything will be even better if BTC starts upward action right from here...
First is done. Here is the 2nd oneMorning folks,
So, our 3-Drive and H&S pattern that we've discussed have completed. But, as we consider 45K level as major target for this trading setup - we expect continuation.
Meantime, market hits 42.6K target and 3/8 Fib resistance on daily chart. It needs some tactical pullback. We suggest that 41-41.2K support is the most probable area.
Then, if everything remains the same, upside action should continue with larger scale H&S pattern on 4H chart. But, the pullback is our first step.
I mark setup as bearish, but only because of expected pullback. In general we have bullish view in short-term.
Target is 45K Morning folks,
So, BTC was not strong enough to form H&S and just collapsed lower. Now finally we get patterns that could become a starting point for pullback.
Here is 4H 3-Drive Buy pattern that has minor reverse H&S on the bottom. We suggest that it is possible to consider long position because now it is accompanied with reasonable risk.
We see 45K level as target. Stop should be placed under the lows of 3-Drive, but if it is too much to you - stick with reverse H&S on 1H chart. In this case stop could placed somewhere around 39K.
This should be relatively safe trade, because market is oversold on daily chart as well...
eurusd rainfall coming read the caption eurusd downtrend
The 50-period EMA at 1.0895 acts as an immediate resistance level for the major pair. The crucial upside barrier will emerge at 1.0915, portraying the confluence of the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band and the 100-period EMA. The next hurdle is located near a high of January 15 at 1.0967, and finally at the 1.1000 psychological round figure.
The major support
eurusd lower and more lower
