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Forexpeacearmy

24.75K and pullbackMorning folks, BTC performance once again shows that fundamental factors always dominate over news stream and hype. First is, we've got first Jacobi ETF in EU - and nothing. Investors start doubt about explosive reaction on BlackRock and Fidelity ETFs, whether people will bring their funds there. Second - while US yields jumped above 4% - BTC has collapsed. We expect further yields growth, rising CPI and possible another rates hike from the Fed this year. Technically, current drop breaks the back of the bulls. Drop under 24K area will open road to 12-15K lows again. Meantime, in short-term we expect reaching our final 24.75K daily target and moderate upside bounce then, as BTC could start forming big daily/weekly H&S pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
28.1 & 26.5KMorning folks, So, market once again tells that fundamentals - rules, confirming our mid term bearish view and slowly but stubbornly going to our 28.1K target. Potential bullish scenario of rounding bottom (or cup), has failed, that we've mentioned last time. Now, we're watching for 28.10K downside AB-CD target, with potential continuation within few weeks to 26-26.5K area. The major reasons - take a look at the US yields. We expect that it will be higher, with next 10-year yields target around 5% within few months: Inflation will turn up again in the US as soon as mid September starting new upside spiral. We expect to see 2-digit inflation in the US by the end of 2024 early 2025. (If everything will not break earlier).
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Interesting point to considerGreetings everybody, BTC picture remains tricky. Fundamentally, we do not see any reasons for BTC rally and keep untouched OP target that we are discussing in lat two weeks. Still, since market is forming symmetrical round bottom on 1H chart, it seems it stands now in perfect position for long entry where risk/reward ratio is maximal. It doesn't guarantee success, but, gives chance to get minimal possible loss. Because if it goes up - it should go right from here. Otherwise it collapses. So, if you have reasons to buy - you could consider current area For confirmation of bullish changes market has to move above 30.4K level and form bullish reversal swing.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Fed reaction is weakMorning folks, So, first dive has happened. While all other markets - FX, Gold, Stocks show positive reaction on Fed statement - BTC can't support the major trend. This is indirect sign of weakness. Now price mostly is supported by 4H K-support area that you could see in our previous update. We do not see any reasons to take off the table our 28-28.5K target by far. To change the view we need stronger bullish context, reversal patterns that we do not have now. Thus, let's see what will happen around 29.8K resistance area. Supposedly it might be interesting for another short entry. In a case of upside breakout, most probable destination point is 30.3K and context could start changing...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
Just waitingMorning folks, Situation is changing slowly here. Recent news of re-filling of big whales ETF registration with the SEC mostly have been ignored, as we do not see any inspiring action here. It means that overall technical picture has not changed too much. Our major bearish patterns are still in place - daily bearish engulfing, weekly bearish grabber. Markets looks heavy by far and shows inability to break through resistance. This makes us keep our trading plan and consider scenario with downside AB-CD, somewhere to 28-28.5K area. Later we could say this with more precision. By this reason we do not consider long positions now.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
Downside scenario is still validMorning folks, I've prepared but forgot to place update yesterday... So, as we've mentioned in recent two weeks, BTC seems has not enough power to proceed upward action immediately. Recent reactions, and inability to join other markets with CPI rally tells, that downside pullback scenario still stands on the table. Last time we've discussed perfect engulfing pattern on daily chart, and possible downside AB-CD, based on it. Target is the same around 28-28.5K area which is the support on 4H chart. Now, on 1H chart we see that upside bounce, based on H&S is over (yesterday it was still in progress), and we consider 2nd leg of extension down. Theoretical chances exist that BTC could try to touch 5/8 resistance first, showing more extended upside bounce, before downside leg starts, but right now we do not see sighs of it, because H&S is done. If even this will happen, I mean 5/8 bounce, it doesn't change the core of scenario with large AB-CD downside pattern, but, just will change slightly the starting point.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
weak CPI reactionMorning folks, Today it is mostly sentiment analysis rather than technical one - because you will not find any more or less clear patterns on 4H chart now. But, what is really interesting - weak CPI reaction. Take a look at gold, at FX market and compares to BTC. Something is wrong here with the mood. ETF driver has exhausted, and market needs the new one, but doesn't exist by far. That's why we do not see reasons yet, to cancel our previous view that BTC could show deeper retracement, supposedly to 4H K-support area around 28.5-28.8K
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
More bearish signs appearMorning folks, So, the ping-pong action that we've discussed last time is under way, but, Friday's performance was dramatic and shows weakness. BTC was not able to proceed higher, forming huge reversal bar on daily chart and bearish grabber on weekly. Although they coul have serious consequences, but for now we do not talk about breaking the tendency or something of this kind. Nearest support stands around 28K, so this should be frist target of potentially deeper retracement. Still, as price still stands inside our range - let's get first the touch of the lower border. And then see what will happen. We do not consider any new long positions by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
IndecisionMorning everybody, So, first euphoria around BlackRock's ETF starts to fade and market immediately turns to indecision performance. Although our last time scenario has been completed accurately and BTC has re-tested the top, it was not able to proceed higher and continue major upside tendency. This makes us think that some time it could spend in flat, which is best scenario. But we also do not exclude more extended down, to 28.5K major support area. As usually we do with the range - depending on your preferable direction watch for patterns inside the range, take position closer to opposite borders or use stop entry orders around borders for the case of breakout. Now we do not have any clear patterns.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
31.5 KMorning folks, As you understand all this rally and sentiment is based only on anticipation of BlackRock&Co ETF approvements from the SEC. Thus, recent volatility also has happened due to the same driving factor. SEC said that Fidelity files are inadequate, but later releases commentaries that the file should be changed a bit and re-send. As a result, on daily chart we've got two bullish grabbers, that suggest upward action at least to 31.5K top. Overall performance also suggests the same - market stands in tight pennant consolidation. Intraday performance is very choppy and stable. Usually this happens, when market prepares to challenge the top. Let's see
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Preparing for breakoutMorning folks, BTC keeps positive mood. Technically picture looks bullish. Price is forming tight pennant shape near the top - classical sign of preparation for breakout. But, keep in mind, of this bullish stuff is based only on Blackrock ETF file. The driver for the market is purely external. Just think what will happen, if SEC will deny the file, as it was with Fidelity two years ago... Thus, it is good looking now, but who knows, what will happen tomorrow. Pay attention to risk management. And yes, if everything will be OK with BlackRock and Fidelity files - nearest mid term target is 36-38K
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Two things to controlMorning folks, BlackRock ETF file has made an explosive action in the news and triggered strongest rally on BTC of a last time. Technically this is good sign for the bulls, pointing that BTC starts new extension mode. Usually you're watching for two things on this stage. First is - market has not changed its mind and erased the rally. Second - strong support areas where you could consider long entry. For now, 28.30-28.80 looks interesting. Besides BTC was at daily overbought, which makes a bit deeper retracement probable.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
28-28.5 K pullbackMorning folks, With SEC problems to put under control Coinbase/Binance, attack on G. Gensler from some Senators and Congressmen and BlackRock bill to register ETF have changed BTC background significantly. If everything will be realised, then it will be absolutely different market in terms of regulation. It will loose freedom but a lot of money will be pour in. Thus, all this stuff is reflected in price. Market confirms bullish context, but now stands at overbought. So, we expect tactical bounce to 28-28.5 K-support area, and intend to consider it for long entry. Mid term upside target now is around 36-38K area
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
27-27.2K is in rangeMorning folks, BTC, on a background of common euphoria and anticipation of sooner Fed easing and QE has shown nice intraday rally, exceeding the level that we've specified as a target of retracement and potential resistance. Thus, expected bounce happened, but it has appeared to be much stronger. Now we have bullish reversal swing and a kind of reverse H&S shape. This let's us consider ~ 25.5-26K area support, where potentially right arm's bottom should be formed, for possible entry with bullish scenario. Nearest target is around 27-27.2K 4H resistance area. Just be aware of strong downside action and breakout of major 5/8 Fib support level around 25K. These two things that we do not want to see when we consider bullish continuation.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
JPYEUR Falling Wedge PatternIn my opinion, JPYEUR appears to be showing signs of a potential reversal as it forms a falling wedge pattern on the 1-hour timeframe, with the current price finding support at a specific level. The falling wedge pattern typically indicates a bullish reversal, suggesting that the downward momentum may be weakening. Considering this pattern and support level, traders might consider a potential long position on JPYEUR. However, it's important to manage risk effectively. Setting a stop loss at 0.0066178 can help limit potential losses if the market moves against the anticipated reversal. Additionally, a take profit level of 0.0066721 can be considered as a target to capture potential gains. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Long
by TopgOptions
SEC on FireMorning folks, We warned even in February that regulation will become one of the major drivers this year. And now we're getting only fist fruits. Our scepsis on reliability of current rally is confirmed by price action and explains why we haven't considered any long entry despite, at first glance, solid BTC jumps. On Thu, last week, we already warned about potential weakness on daily chart, as market was not able to re-start upward action from strong support area. Chances on downside continuation increases. On daily target remains around 24.2K. On this, 4H chart we have two more intermediate targets, based on potential butterfly. Market is forming flag consolidation right above the lows, which could mean preparation for challenge.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten