GBPUSD reaches resistance zone: Watching for potential reversalOANDA:GBPJPY has reached a pretty significant resistance level, that has been an obvious turning point in the past, with several strong reversals from the area. So naturally, I’m watching to see how price reacts here again.
If we get confirmation of rejection (what I usually watch for: like a bearish engulfing candle, long upper wicks or signs of increased selling pressure), I’ll be looking for short setups from there.
🟥 My sell idea is based on the expectation that this resistance will hold. I would be targeting a move down toward the 192.000 level, which I feel is a realistic and clean target, especially if price respects this structure again.
But if price breaks above and starts holding strong above the zone, then I’ll back off the bearish bias and reassess, and I’d consider the bearish idea invalidated, with potential for further upside 🚀
Just sharing how I see the chart right now, not financial advice 💕✨
Forexsignal
Market next move Disruption Points:
1. Bullish Accumulation Underway
The recent candles show higher lows and lower volume on red candles, suggesting selling pressure is decreasing.
> Disruptive scenario: Price may bounce off minor support (around 1.3560–1.3570) and form a higher low, triggering a bullish rally back above 1.3620.
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2. Fake Bearish Setup (Liquidity Trap)
The three arrows predicting a drop might represent a classic retail trap where too many anticipate the same direction.
> Contrary idea: A false breakdown below 1.3550 may occur just to collect stop-losses, followed by a strong reversal upward.
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3. Divergence Risk
If momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) show bullish divergence while price moves sideways or dips, it may signal an upcoming bullish impulse.
> Disruption: Downward arrows may be misinterpreting consolidation as weakness rather than a setup for continuation of the previous uptrend.
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4. Fundamental Wildcard
The chart shows an upcoming U.S. economic event, likely to impact the dollar.
If the data is weak for the USD, GBP/USD could surge sharply, invalidating the bearish scenario.
Market next move Bearish Disruption Analysis:
1. False Breakout Risk:
The current price is consolidating in a tight range.
The support area may fail to hold due to low volume and indecision (notice the decreasing volume in recent candles).
2. Lower High Formation:
A potential lower high is forming compared to the peak from earlier on June 5.
This could signal a trend reversal or weakening bullish momentum.
3. Volume Divergence:
The bullish candles have lower volume than previous strong moves, indicating a lack of strong buying interest.
4. Support Breakdown Scenario:
If price breaks below the marked support area (~3360), we could see:
Drop toward the 3340 area (next visible support).
Acceleration if stop-losses are triggered below the support zone.
Market next move 🔍 Original Interpretation:
Support Zone: The red rectangle suggests a support level between ~102,800 and ~103,300.
Bullish Bias: The blue arrow anticipates a bounce from this zone, potentially forming a higher low before continuing upward.
Bearish Bias: The red arrow marks a potential resistance, predicting rejection and a move lower if the bullish breakout fails.
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⚠️ Disruptive Analysis:
1. False Support Breakout Risk:
A false breakdown beneath the support zone could trigger panic selling before a rapid recovery (fakeout).
Traders might place stop-losses just below the box — a perfect target for market makers before price reverses.
2. Volume Deception:
Volume increased during the sell-off but did not show strong absorption by buyers (green volume wasn't dominant).
This suggests sellers still dominate and a continuation lower could occur before any bounce.
3. Lower Highs Formation:
The last few green candles failed to break the previous highs, indicating weaker buying strength.
Price may form a lower high, hinting at a short-term bearish trend.
4. Macro Trend Consideration:
If this is just a retracement within a larger downtrend, the bounce could be short-lived.
Broader market sentiment or macro news could push BTC toward 100,000 support or lower.
Market next move Disruptive Bearish Scenarios:
1. Support Area Breakdown
The recent strong bearish candle with high volume shows aggressive selling pressure.
If the price fails to hold above the support area and closes below it, especially on high volume, it could invalidate the bullish recovery.
> Bearish Alternative: Price breaks below 103,000, retests it as resistance (bearish flip), and continues down toward 101,000–100,000.
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2. Lower High Trap
The projected bounce could form a lower high below the 106,000 resistance, creating a classic bearish structure.
> Disruption Path: After a minor recovery toward 104,500–105,000, sellers regain control, and BTC resumes the downtrend.
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3. Fake Support Bounce
The support area could create a fake-out bounce, tricking long traders before a sharper reversal.
The move up may lack follow-through due to diminishing bullish volume.
Market next move 🔍 Bearish Disruption Perspective
1. Supply Zone Rejection
The red box marks a strong resistance zone. Current price action shows rejection at that level (long upper wicks).
This signals that sellers are defending this zone, increasing the likelihood of a false breakout.
2. Exhaustion After Strong Rally
The massive green candle just before the resistance may have exhausted short-term buying power.
Without a clear consolidation or volume surge, the price could reverse or retrace to gather strength.
3. Volume Discrepancy
Volume spikes with price often suggest conviction. However, this chart shows moderate volume on the test of resistance—not enough to confirm breakout strength.
4. Bearish Candlestick Pattern
The small red candle following the green surge could be forming a bearish engulfing or rejection candle, depending on the close.
Market next move 🧨 Disruption Points:
1. Overbought Condition / RSI Divergence
Even though the price is surging (+3.30%), there could be an overbought condition forming.
If RSI or other momentum indicators (not shown here) diverge, it might signal weakness in bullish momentum.
> Disruptive idea: Price may fake the breakout (blue arrow) and then sharply reverse, trapping late buyers.
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2. False Breakout Trap
The red-box area could be a liquidity zone where smart money might induce a fake breakout before dumping.
> Alternative path: Price breaks above temporarily (as in blue path), but then reverses violently back into the range, forming a “bull trap.”
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3. Volume Anomaly
The volume appears to be decreasing on recent bullish candles after the initial spike.
This suggests that the uptrend may be losing strength, making the yellow arrow scenario less likely.
> Contrary outlook: Lack of volume confirmation could mean a sideways consolidation or reversal is more probable.
Market next move 🔍 Disruptive Counter-Analysis
1. False Breakout Risk
The current breakout could be a bull trap. Price may break above the resistance level temporarily before reversing sharply.
Volume Analysis: The volume isn't significantly higher at the breakout candle, which may suggest a lack of strong momentum or institutional participation.
2. Resistance Zone Ahead
The 1.14500 to 1.15000 range is historically a supply zone, where sellers may aggressively enter the market.
This makes any upside move vulnerable to a reversal near that zone.
3. Macroeconomic Risk
A red-circled economic event icon appears on the chart (likely an ECB or Fed-related release). This adds uncertainty—news can invalidate technical patterns.
If the event is bearish for the euro (e.g., weak data or dovish ECB comments), the pair could reverse sharply.
4. Overbought Short-Term
A series of green candles without significant pullback suggests short-term overbought conditions.
RSI or other momentum indicators (not shown here) may confirm this. A correction to the previous base is possible.
Market next target 🧨 Disruption Points:
1. Bullish Accumulation Underway
The recent candles show higher lows and lower volume on red candles, suggesting selling pressure is decreasing.
> Disruptive scenario: Price may bounce off minor support (around 1.3560–1.3570) and form a higher low, triggering a bullish rally back above 1.3620.
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2. Fake Bearish Setup (Liquidity Trap)
The three arrows predicting a drop might represent a classic retail trap where too many anticipate the same direction.
> Contrary idea: A false breakdown below 1.3550 may occur just to collect stop-losses, followed by a strong reversal upward.
---
3. Divergence Risk
If momentum indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) show bullish divergence while price moves sideways or dips, it may signal an upcoming bullish impulse.
> Disruption: Downward arrows may be misinterpreting consolidation as weakness rather than a setup for continuation of the previous uptrend.
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4. Fundamental Wildcard
The chart shows an upcoming U.S. economic event, likely to impact the dollar.
If the data is weak for the USD, GBP/USD could surge sharply, invalidating the bearish scenario.
Market next target 🧨 Disruption Points:
1. Overbought Condition / RSI Divergence
Even though the price is surging (+3.30%), there could be an overbought condition forming.
If RSI or other momentum indicators (not shown here) diverge, it might signal weakness in bullish momentum.
> Disruptive idea: Price may fake the breakout (blue arrow) and then sharply reverse, trapping late buyers.
---
2. False Breakout Trap
The red-box area could be a liquidity zone where smart money might induce a fake breakout before dumping.
> Alternative path: Price breaks above temporarily (as in blue path), but then reverses violently back into the range, forming a “bull trap.”
---
3. Volume Anomaly
The volume appears to be decreasing on recent bullish candles after the initial spike.
This suggests that the uptrend may be losing strength, making the yellow arrow scenario less likely.
> Contrary outlook: Lack of volume confirmation could mean a sideways consolidation or reversal is more probable.
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4. News/Event Risk (Fundamental Disruption)
The chart shows an upcoming economic event (U.S. flag icon), possibly Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), interest rate news, or CPI.
These events could cause extreme volatility and invalidate all technical patterns.
Market next move 🔍 Disruptive Technical Perspective
1. Overextension After Rally
The current sharp upward move may be overextended.
Lack of consolidation suggests the rally may be unsustainable without a pullback to test support.
2. Volume Divergence
While price is rising, the volume bar at the most recent candle is not increasing proportionally.
This signals weakening momentum, which often precedes a reversal or consolidation.
3. Unconfirmed Breakout
The chart doesn't clearly show a confirmed breakout above a significant resistance zone.
This could indicate a potential fakeout rather than a true breakout.
4. Potential Double Top Formation Risk
If price stalls near current levels and pulls back, a double top pattern might form—often a bearish reversal signal.
A drop back below $3,380 could trigger heavy selling.
USDJPY Tests Channel Support After ADP Shock — Rebound Ahead?In the last hour's candle after the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Index was released, USDJPY ( FX:USDJPY ) started to fall, but considering the position of this pair, I think we can have a good Risk-To-Reward even if the Stop Loss (SL) is touched.
USDJPY is trading near the lower line of the ascending channel and the Support zone(143.870 JPY-143.430 JPY) .
From an Elliott Wave perspective , USDJPY appears to be completing a corrective pattern .
I expect USDJPY to rise at least to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Note: Stop Loss = 143.220 JPY
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze (USDJPY), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
XAU/USD (Gold vs USD)📏 Trendlines:
Red descending trendline = consistent lower highs → selling pressure increases.
Horizontal red support line (~3349) = price tested multiple times, but no strong bounce.
📦 Chart Patterns:
Multiple bear flag formations marked in green = typical continuation patterns in downtrends.
Suggests repeated attempts to rally are being sold into.
🟣 Support & Resistance:
Immediate resistance: Downtrend line (~3355–3360).
Key support level: 3349 (horizontal red line).
Breakdown target: 3332.685 (blue horizontal line) and further to ~3310 zone.
🧭 Price Projection:
🚨 Expect a potential pullback to the trendline (~3355), which may reject again.
📉 If 3349 support breaks, a strong drop to 3332 is likely.
Final bearish target: ~3310 level, aligning with the magenta arrow.
📌 Conclusion:
⚠️ Bias: Bearish under 3355.
🧨 Watch for breakdown confirmation below 3349 to trigger short positions.
🕵️♂️ Be cautious of false breakouts; wait for candle close confirmation.
XAUUSD NEXT MOVE Price has surged by +1.92% rapidly. This sharp move may indicate an overbought condition or "bull trap," especially near the 3352–3360 zone.
The rally could be short-lived if momentum doesn't sustain. Watch for signs of reversal like bearish candlestick formations (e.g., shooting star, bearish engulfing) near the blue resistance line.
Stronger U.S. JOLTS Data Pressures EURUSD!!!EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) failed to break the Resistance zone($1.1487-$1.1424) and started to fall again , breaking the Support lines .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that EURUSD has managed to complete the main wave X of the Double Three Correction(WXY) structure .
Just moments ago, the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings data was released.
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Actual: 7.39M
Forecast: 7.11M
Previous: 7.19M
The stronger-than-expected JOLTS figure at 7.39 million signals a resilient labor market. This reduces recession fears and increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer.
Bullish for the U.S. Dollar( TVC:DXY )
Bearish pressure could hit EURUSD, especially if it's approaching the key resistance zone.
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I expect EURUSD to start to fall again after the pullback to the Support lines and to fall to the targets I have specified on the chart.
Note: If EURUSD touches $1.14580(Stop Loss(SL)), we can expect a failure of the Resistance zone($1.1487-$1.1424).
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – 1H ChartGold Spot (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – 1H Chart
📅 June 4th, 2025
📈 Analysis by mmozafari1357
We are currently observing a complex WXY corrective pattern forming within a well-defined bullish channel on the 1H timeframe.
Wave W completed after a strong impulsive move from the lower support zone around $3,250.
Wave X is expected to extend higher and reach the $3,450–$3,470 resistance zone, which aligns with the upper boundary of the parallel channel and a historical supply area.
Currently, price seems to be forming wave Y as a retracement, creating a higher low structure before the anticipated bullish continuation.
🟢 Bias: Bullish continuation expected toward the $3,450 zone.
🔵 Key Levels:
Support: $3,320 – $3,335
Resistance: $3,420 – $3,470
This setup remains valid as long as price stays within the ascending channel and maintains higher lows.
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🔖 Posted by: mmozafari1357
🧠 Stay patient, stay disciplined, and let the structure guide you.
Market next move Disruption of the Downtrend Analysis
The chart currently suggests a bearish breakout with a downside target near 1.12900. Let’s challenge that:
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🟩 Bullish Reversal Possibility
1. Support Zone Near 1.1370:
Price has shown signs of stabilizing around the 1.1370 level.
Multiple wicks below the candles suggest buyer interest at this level.
2. Low Volume on Recent Red Candles:
A decreasing volume trend on recent red candles can indicate weak bearish momentum.
Bulls may be waiting to enter on a breakout above the 1.1380–1.1390 zone.
3. Potential for Fakeout:
The sharp expected drop might be a bear trap.
If price breaks back above 1.1385 with strong volume, it could invalidate the bearish thesis.
4. RSI/Momentum Divergence (Assumed):
If momentum indicators (not shown) display bullish divergence, this strengthens the case for a reversal
Market next move ⚠️ Disruption of the Bullish Analysis:
1. Weak Support Zone
The highlighted support area is not strongly tested (only a couple of candles touch it).
Low volume around support may indicate lack of buying interest at that level.
If price breaks below this support, the bullish setup becomes invalid.
2. Bearish Volume Spike
There's a noticeable high volume red candle during the recent drop.
This could imply strong selling pressure, not just profit-taking.
Rising volume on red candles often precedes further downside.
3. Lower High Formation
The price may create a lower high near the projected bounce zone.
If that happens, the market structure would shift to bearish.
A lower high and a break below support confirms a downtrend.
Market next target 🟢 1. Strong Support Zone Nearby
The region around $103,500–$104,000 has acted as a strong demand zone historically (look left).
BTC might bounce from this level instead of continuing the downtrend.
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🔄 2. Consolidation, Not Breakdown
The price action appears more sideways/choppy than strongly bearish.
Without a clean breakdown candle below key support, this might be accumulation, not distribution.
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📉 3. Bearish Momentum Weakness
Volume on the recent red candles is not significantly increasing.
This implies lack of strong conviction from sellers.
Market next move 1. Bearish Rejection Zone
The red box highlights a consolidation/resistance zone.
BTC is struggling to break and close above this area.
Multiple candle wicks into the zone suggest seller strength.
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📉 2. Volume Weakness
The recent upward candles show lower volume compared to the selling candles before it.
This indicates that the buying pressure may be weak, lacking momentum for a breakout.
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🕳️ 3. False Breakout Trap Risk
A fakeout above the resistance box is possible if big players trigger buy orders and then reverse the market, trapping retail traders.
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🟠 4. Bearish Divergence (if confirmed by RSI or MACD)
Without indicators shown, if momentum indicators like RSI/MACD display divergence (price up but momentum down), it’s a bearish signal.
DXY Short-Term Reversal Zone in SightUS Dollar Index (DXY) is approaching a strong support zone at 98.90–98.00, which has historically acted as a base for bullish reversals. The price is now testing the lower bound of this zone after a steady downtrend from the 101.94 high.
Key Technical Structure:
Support Zone: 98.90–98.00 (tested 3+ times)
Double Bottom Potential forming if bulls hold the zone
Upside Targets:
101.94: Key horizontal resistance
103.50: Swing high from early April
Scenarios to Watch:
🔹 Bullish Rebound:
Price bounces off 98.90–98.00 support
Confirmation: Break and close above 100.50 near-term resistance
Could fuel move back to 101.94, possibly 103.50
🔹 Bearish Breakdown:
Daily close below 98.00 would invalidate bullish setup
Opens downside to 97.00 and even 95.50
Macro Drivers to Watch:
FOMC speakers and interest rate guidance
US jobless claims or inflation surprise
Risk-off sentiment (benefits USD) vs. continued global risk appetite
Conclusion:
DXY is trading at a make-or-break support zone. Watch for clear bullish reaction or bearish breakdown before committing. The setup favors a bounce unless 98.00 fails.
Market next move 🔄 Disruptive Bullish Scenario Analysis
1. Oversold Conditions & Possible Reversal
The current price at 143.028 shows an aggressive drop.
This could indicate the pair is entering oversold territory on lower timeframes (not visible here but common post-drop).
If confirmed with RSI or stochastic indicators, a reversal or retracement could be imminent before reaching the 141.000 target.
2. Demand Zone at 142.500–142.000
Historically, this area (near 142.5–142.0) may act as a support zone.
Buyers could step in here, especially if fundamentals (e.g., U.S. data releases or BOJ comments) support dollar strength.
3. Volume Divergence
Declining selling volume despite price falling (visible from lower red bars) may hint at weakening bearish momentum.
This divergence often precedes a bullish correction or range formation.
4. False Breakdown Possibility
The sharp projection to 141.000 could trigger stop hunts.
After trapping breakout sellers, price may sharply rebound to retest 143.500–144.000 zones.
Market next target 🔍 Original Analysis Summary:
Bearish Outlook: Price is expected to decline from the recent high.
Support Level: Identified near 1.34400.
Target Zone: Around 1.34200 based on breakdown expectations.
Reasoning: Possibly based on rejection near resistance and anticipation of bearish follow-through.
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⚠️ Disruption (Bullish/Neutral Counter-Scenario):
1. Strong Bullish Candle at Resistance
The last candle is a bullish engulfing near recent highs, indicating buyer strength.
Rather than rejecting, price appears to break out of consolidation.
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2. Volume Supporting Bullish Momentum
Increasing green volume bars show accumulating demand, not weakness.
Could imply a liquidity grab before a bullish continuation.
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3. Failed Breakdown Attempts
Price has attempted to fall multiple times (wicks downward), but was bought up quickly.
That often signals trap setups where short sellers are being baited.
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4. Macro Sentiment / USD Weakness Risk
With upcoming U.S. economic news (red circle), any sign of a weaker USD could invalidate the bearish scenario entirely.
GBP tends to benefit from any shift in U.S. interest rate expectations or economic softness.