Bearish drop?AUD/NZD is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.10273
1st Support: 1.09686
1st Resistance: 1.10909
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Forexsignals
Gold price analysis November 4Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices traded in positive territory on Monday. The US presidential election risks and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to support the yellow metal, a traditional safe-haven asset, in the near term. However, renewed demand for the greenback and higher US bond yields could limit gold’s upside as higher yields make non-yielding assets such as bullion less attractive by comparison.
Investors will be closely watching the upcoming US presidential election on Tuesday. Attention will turn to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Thursday. Uncertainty over the US election outcome is one reason why markets are betting on the Fed cutting interest rates by a conventional 25 basis points (bps) on Thursday, rather than repeating its excessive half-point easing.
Technical Analysis
Gold prices were trading sideways in a narrow range at the start of the week. The 2748 and 2728 borders are still guaranteed in today's Asian and European session. We still have to depend on the market volatility to choose the price border zones to trade. The support zones of interest are 2718, 2709. The upper border is noted around 2760 and 2780. When the price breaks out of the 2728 support zone, the main strategy will be to wait for SELL when the sellers have won the market. Wish you a successful trading day.
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
#GBPNZD 2HGBPNZD 2-Hour Analysis
The GBPNZD pair is forming a descending triangle pattern on the 2-hour chart, indicating potential bearish momentum. This pattern typically signals a continuation or reversal to the downside as sellers consistently push the price lower toward a horizontal support level. A breakout below this support would confirm the pattern and create a sell opportunity.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Descending Triangle
- Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity)
- Entry Strategy: Sell on a breakout below the support level of the triangle
Traders may consider selling if the price breaks below the triangle's support line, with targets set at subsequent lower support zones. To confirm the bearish move, indicators like RSI showing weak momentum or MACD crossing downward could provide additional confidence for a short position.
#GBPJPY 4HGBPJPY 4-Hour Analysis
The GBPJPY pair has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential reversal and indicating selling pressure in the market. This bearish engulfing area suggests that sellers are gaining control, creating an opportunity for a sell entry.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Bearish Engulfing Area
- Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity)
- Entry Strategy: Sell near the bearish engulfing area
Traders may consider entering a sell position around the bearish engulfing pattern, targeting lower support levels. Confirming indicators such as RSI showing overbought conditions or MACD reflecting bearish momentum can strengthen the signal, making this a more reliable setup for a short trade.
#EURJPY 2HEURJPY 2-Hour Analysis
The EURJPY pair is currently testing a strong resistance level on the 2-hour chart, indicating potential downward pressure. This resistance level has previously acted as a barrier to upward movements, creating an opportunity for a sell setup as the price struggles to break through.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Resistance Level
- Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity)
- Entry Strategy: Sell near the resistance level
Traders may consider entering a sell position close to the resistance area, targeting lower support zones. For added confirmation, indicators such as RSI showing overbought conditions or MACD displaying bearish divergence could strengthen the signal, making this sell setup more reliable.
#AUDUSD 2HAUDUSD 2-Hour Analysis
The AUDUSD pair has recently broken above a trendline resistance on the 2-hour chart, indicating a potential shift towards bullish momentum. This breakout suggests that buyers are gaining control, creating an opportunity for a buy entry as the price shows signs of an uptrend.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Trendline Resistance Breakout
- Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity)
- Entry Strategy: Buy above the breakout level of the trendline resistance
Traders may consider entering buy positions above the breakout level, with targets set at the next resistance zones. Confirmation from indicators such as RSI for bullish momentum or MACD for a positive crossover can strengthen this buy setup and support the bullish outlook.
#AUDNZD 4HAUDNZD 4-Hour Analysis
The AUDNZD pair is currently testing a trendline resistance on the 4-hour chart and has recently formed a bearish engulfing candle near this level. This setup indicates potential selling pressure, as the trendline resistance and bearish engulfing pattern together signal a possible downside move.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Trendline Resistance with Bearish Engulfing
- Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity)
- Entry Strategy: Sell near the trendline resistance and bearish engulfing area
Traders may look to enter a sell position near the resistance area, with targets set at key support levels below. Additional confirmation through indicators like RSI showing overbought levels or MACD with bearish divergence could further validate the sell setup for a stronger entry signal.
EURUSD targeting 1.0500 after the 1W MA100 rejection.Late August (Aug 26, see chart below) saw us emphasizing the critical role of the Lower Highs trend-line, being the top of a multi-year Falling Wedge pattern that started at the peak of the 2008 Housing Crisis, and its important on the long-term trend, with a break-out being bullish while a rejection being bearish:
The price was eventually rejected exactly at the top and at the same time the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), which did the July 2023 rejection. That rejection initiated a correction back to the Symmetrical Support Zone of 2015.
As a result, we expect EURUSD to gradually descend towards that Zone and by mid 2025, hit 1.0500.
Notice also that the 1W RSI also got very close to its 15-year Resistance Zone. This has triggered in the past more brutal sell-offs.
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#AUDNZD 1DAYAUDNZD Daily Analysis
The AUDNZD pair is currently facing trendline resistance on the daily chart, signaling potential downward pressure. This trendline has acted as a barrier to price advances in recent sessions, providing a possible setup for a sell position as the price struggles to break through.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Trendline Resistance
- Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity)
- Entry Strategy: Sell near the trendline resistance level
Traders may consider selling near the trendline resistance, targeting lower support areas. For added confirmation, it’s advisable to check indicators such as RSI for overbought conditions or MACD for signs of bearish divergence, which could strengthen this sell setup.
#GBPNZD 1DAYGBPNZD Daily Analysis
The GBPNZD pair is trading within a defined channel on the daily chart and has recently formed a bearish engulfing pattern near the channel's resistance. This combination signals potential downside pressure, creating a favorable setup for a sell position.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Channel with Bearish Engulfing at Resistance
- Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity)
- Entry Strategy: Sell near the resistance area or at confirmation of the bearish engulfing pattern
Traders may consider selling near the channel's upper boundary or after confirming the bearish engulfing pattern. Indicators like RSI indicating overbought levels or MACD confirming bearish momentum can further validate this setup for a stronger sell entry.
EURUSD Down Trend ContinuationEURUSD has opened with an upward gap and is moving toward a significant resistance zone within a larger bearish trend. If the market meets resistance here and rejects both the resistance zone and the upper border of the descending channel, it may indicate an impending bearish reversal. Historically, this level has acted as a strong resistance, with price bouncing off it multiple times, which reinforces the likelihood of another rejection.
There is potential for a push above last week’s high as an initial move to gather liquidity, followed by a bearish reversal aiming to fill the recent gap. If this scenario unfolds, the target would be the support zone around 1.08510, aligning with the gap-filling objective and providing a solid level for further downside momentum
XAU/USD : Another Bullish Move Ahead? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Gold chart in the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that, as expected last night, gold showed an upward movement with the market opening. After maintaining its position above the noted support level, it reached the targets of $2739 and $2744. Currently, gold is trading around $2742, and we’ll need to watch over the next two hours to see if it can stabilize above this level.
The key demand zones are $2738.6-$2739.7 and $2727-$2733, while the important supply zones are $2747, $2752, and $2757.
USD/CHF Breakdown Opportunity: Targeting Next Support Leve"USD/CHF is approaching a critical support zone (highlighted in green). If we see a clear breakout below this level, it could signal strong bearish momentum, aiming for our next support zone marked in gray. 📉
Stay tuned for confirmation of the breakdown, and let's watch how the price reacts in this area. Potential trading opportunity for those looking to ride the trend downwards!
GBP/USD Turns Bearish: Analyzing the Key Factors Behind DeclineThe GBP/USD pair has recently turned bearish after reaching a significant Supply area around 1.3228. This level, clearly visible on the weekly chart, has proven to be a formidable resistance, halting the pair's upward momentum and reversing its course. As of today, GBP/USD is trading around 1.3125, marking a notable decline from the previous highs.
Weekly Chart
Economic Calendar and Market Sentiment
Today’s economic calendar highlights the USD ISM Manufacturing PMI, a critical indicator of economic health in the United States. As a leading indicator, the PMI reflects the purchasing managers' outlook, which can offer valuable insights into the overall economic sentiment. Businesses tend to react swiftly to market changes, making this data particularly relevant for understanding the current economic landscape.
In contrast, the UK's economic calendar is sparse this week, offering little to support the GBP. The lack of high-impact economic data leaves GBP traders focusing on external factors, particularly from the US. The US economic calendar, however, is packed with significant data releases, including the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures spread throughout the week. However, the spotlight remains on US labor data, with key prints scheduled for Thursday and Friday.
Thursday’s US ADP Employment Change will be the first major data release, serving as a precursor to Friday’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This week's labor market updates are crucial as they represent the last significant data points before the Federal Reserve's rate decision on September 18th.
Before these critical releases, the market will also be watching the US JOLTS job openings, scheduled for Wednesday. The JOLTS data is expected to remain steady near 8.1 million for July, closely aligning with the previous month’s figure of 8.184 million.
Technical and Sentiment Analysis: Indicators of Further Decline
From a technical perspective, the recent rejection from the 1.3228 Supply area signals a potential continuation of the bearish trend. In addition to this, the Commitments of Traders (COT) report reveals an interesting dynamic. Retail traders are currently extremely bullish on GBP, which often serves as a contrarian indicator, suggesting that a reversal might be on the horizon.
Seasonal trends also support the bearish outlook for GBP. Historically, this period tends to favor a continuation of the downtrend, aligning with the current market sentiment and technical indicators.
Conclusion: A Confluence of Factors Supporting the Bearish Outlook
The confluence of technical resistance at the Supply area, bearish seasonal trends, and contrarian sentiment indicators all point towards a continuation of the GBP/USD decline. As the market awaits critical economic data from the US, traders should remain cautious of further downside risks. The alignment of these factors underpins our bearish outlook on GBP/USD, reinforcing the idea that the pair may continue to trade lower in the near term.
OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST
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GBPUSDGBPUSD price has a chance to test the resistance zone 1.30208-1.30486. If the price cannot break through the 1.30486 level, it is expected that in the short term, there is a chance that the price will go down. Consider selling the red zone.
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Gold price will reach 2800 this weekLast week, gold's direction was strongly influenced by concerns surrounding the race for the White House by former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris and the conflict in the Middle East and expectations of the US Federal Reserve. (Fed) will continue to cut interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting. This week, the US election and the US Central Bank's interest rate decision will dominate the sentiment in this precious metals market.
Both experts and retail investors say that it is difficult to predict the direction of gold this week, because this precious metal is still influenced by the situation in the Middle East, the US election and the civil war. Fed policy meeting. SIA Wealth Management market strategist Colin Cieszynski said that gold is at $2,750 an ounce and appears to be starting a normal consolidation process, but the underlying long-term uptrend remains intact until now. Now.
However, the appeal of this precious metal is still maintained and the price reached 2,800 USD/ounce last week. This shows the strong resistance of this precious metal.
The gold market will stabilize after the electionThe focus of the financial market is the US presidential election, which is about to enter a key moment. According to poll results, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris compete fiercely. However, investors are taking cues from the betting market, which has shifted in Mr. Trump's favor.
The USD hit a 3-month high on data showing the US economy remains strong and Trump's victory is likely.
Fed policymakers are almost certain the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at its November meeting. The Fed's next policy meeting is expected to begin immediately after the election US President on November 5. The Fed's first rate cut in September brought the policy rate down to a range of 4.75-5%.
Data released last week showed that the core personal consumption expenditure index (excluding food and energy prices) increased 2.7% in 12 months. Inflation has remained at this level for the past 3 months.
🔥 XAUUSD BUY LIMIT 2733 - 2731🔥
✔️ TP1: 2755
✔️ TP2: 2765
✔️ TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2724
🔥 XAUUSD SELL LIMIT 2753 - 2751🔥
✔️ TP1: 2745
✔️ TP2: 2735
✔️ TP3: OPEN
🚫SL: 2760
Could the price reverse from here?EUR/GBP is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.8404
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.8448
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.8347
Why we like it:
there is a pullback support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Bearish drop off overlap resistance?AUD/CHF has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could potentially drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.57279
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 0.57596
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.56717
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bearish drop?NZD/CHF has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.52043
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 0.52407
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that6 aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 0.51551
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish rise?The kiwi (NZD/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could rise from this level to the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 0.5991
1st Support: 0.5939
1st Resistance: 0.6048
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.