Market next move Disruption to Bullish Scenario:
1. Resistance Zone Around 1.1540 – 1.1550
The price is approaching a psychological and potential resistance level around 1.1540–1.1550.
If the bulls fail to break this zone convincingly, a rejection could lead to a pullback or reversal.
2. Bearish Divergence in Volume
Despite upward movement in price, the volume doesn't show a strong bullish breakout. If momentum weakens while price rises, it might indicate a bearish divergence.
3. Rising Wedge Formation
The current price channel resembles a rising wedge, which is typically a bearish pattern.
A breakdown from this pattern (below the “support area” trendline) could trigger a sell-off toward 1.1500 or lower.
4. Economic Data or News Risk
Any sudden USD strength due to economic reports, Federal Reserve commentary, or geopolitical tension could flip the sentiment instantly.
Icons below the chart hint at upcoming news from the Eurozone or U.S., which could lead to volatility.
5. Overbought Condition
If technical indicators like RSI or MACD (not shown in this chart) are in overbought territory, a correction or profit-taking may happen soon.
Forexsignals
Market next move 🔄 Disruption: Bullish Setup Building?
🧠 Problems With Bearish Interpretation:
1. Volume Surge Might Be Re-Accumulation:
Volume at the purple lightning symbol is rising — this could signal buyer interest, not distribution.
Green candles in this zone suggest aggressive buying on dips.
2. Failed Breakdown Earlier:
Price had a strong drop but bounced sharply, recovering nearly all losses.
That type of V-recovery often traps early shorts, leading to a rally.
3. Resistance Retest Might Be Breakout Setup:
The red box marks resistance, but price is consolidating just below it.
That’s typically bullish if no strong rejection occurs — classic “base before breakout.”
4. No Lower Low Yet:
Market structure still holding.
Until price breaks below ~$35.80, the bearish thesis remains speculative.
Market next target 📉 Original View (Bearish Outlook):
Predicts a downward move from around $3,370 to the target near $3,250.
Sharp drop illustrated with zigzag downward arrows.
Yellow arrow highlights growing volume — likely interpreted as early selling pressure.
---
🔄 Disruption: Bullish Reversal or Trap Setup
🧠 Problems With Bearish Thesis:
1. Volume Spike Might Indicate Demand:
The yellow arrow highlights a volume surge, but this might be buyer absorption, not selling dominance.
If this volume came during a wick-heavy candle or hammer, it suggests buying interest at lows.
2. No Break of Major Support Yet:
Price is still above $3,350, a key psychological and technical zone.
No clear breakdown has occurred — the downtrend is assumed, not confirmed.
3. Oversold Momentum?
Momentum indicators (not shown) may reveal oversold conditions, making a short-term rebound more probable.
Market next move 🔄 Disrupted Analysis: Bullish Counter-Scenario
🧠 Original Bias:
The chart predicts a strong bearish move, with a target around 88,000 USD.
The label "Bullish" seems misleading as it’s placed in a steep downward move.
---
📉 Issues With the Original Analysis:
1. Volume Misinterpretation:
Increasing red volume could indicate capitulation or a temporary panic sell-off, not necessarily the start of a new trend.
A bounce could follow if buyers step in.
2. Support Zone Ignored:
The analysis overlooks any previous support levels in the 100k–98k range, where buyers may be waiting.
3. No Confirmation for Breakdown:
The chart does not show a completed breakdown of a key structure or trendline.
The blue squiggle assumes a breakdown will happen, but no technical confirmation is visible.
---
📈 Disruption Scenario: Bullish Reversal Possible
Rejection from 102k zone could be a liquidity grab, not the start of a downtrend.
Hidden bullish divergence on RSI or MACD (not shown here) could support a bounce.
Market next forecast 🔄 Disrupted Analysis: Bullish Counter-Scenario
🧠 Original Bias:
The chart predicts a strong bearish move, with a target around 88,000 USD.
The label "Bullish" seems misleading as it’s placed in a steep downward move.
---
📉 Issues With the Original Analysis:
1. Volume Misinterpretation:
Increasing red volume could indicate capitulation or a temporary panic sell-off, not necessarily the start of a new trend.
A bounce could follow if buyers step in.
2. Support Zone Ignored:
The analysis overlooks any previous support levels in the 100k–98k range, where buyers may be waiting.
3. No Confirmation for Breakdown:
The chart does not show a completed breakdown of a key structure or trendline.
The blue squiggle assumes a breakdown will happen, but no technical confirmation is visible.
---
📈 Disruption Scenario: Bullish Reversal Possible
Rejection from 102k zone could be a liquidity grab, not the start of a downtrend.
EUR/CHF Parallel Channel Breakout WatchThe EUR/CHF pair has been trading within a well-defined parallel channel on the 1-hour timeframe. The price action is contained between a strong resistance zone near 0.9420–0.9425 (marked in red) and a support zone near 0.9365–0.9370 (marked in green). Multiple rejections from both the top and bottom of the range indicate solid market structure and participation from both buyers and sellers.
This type of formation often leads to explosive moves when the price eventually breaks out of the consolidation range. The current chart shows price testing the upper boundary of the channel once again, and now attempting a bullish breakout.
📈 Bullish Breakout Scenario
If the price sustains above the resistance zone (confirmed breakout), we could see a continuation of bullish momentum toward the projected breakout target near 0.9475. This target is calculated using the height of the channel added to the breakout level, a classic price projection method. A strong candle close above the resistance with volume would validate this move. Traders may look for long entries on breakout confirmation or on a successful retest of the resistance zone as new support.
📉 Bearish Reversal Scenario
However, if the breakout fails and price gets rejected again from the red zone, a sharp reversal back toward the support zone around 0.9370 may occur. This would keep the channel intact and suggest continued range-bound movement. A breakdown below support would then be required for further bearish confirmation, leading toward deeper downside targets.
This setup provides a high-probability opportunity in either direction with clearly defined levels and structure. Wait for breakout confirmation before entering to avoid false moves.
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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XAU/USD Bullish Breakout from Flag PatternBullish Flag Formation: The price consolidated in a downward-sloping flag after a sharp bullish move. A breakout has occurred, signaling renewed buying pressure.
Support Zone: The breakout aligns with the horizontal support area around 3,392, reinforcing the bullish bias.
Upside Targets: Based on price structure and measured move projection:
First target: 3,435 – 3,452
Final target zone: 3,500+
Momentum Confirmation: The Ichimoku cloud supports bullish continuation as price trades above it, showing strong upward momentum.
Conclusion:
Gold appears to be resuming its uptrend after a brief consolidation. As long as price holds above the breakout level (around 3,392), the bullish targets remain valid. Ideal scenario for continuation traders looking for entries on minor pullbacks
GBPUSD hit its 1D MA50. Perfect buy signal.The GBPUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the January 13 2025 market bottom. Yesterday it hit its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 08.
This is the most efficient buy entry as the 1D MA50 has been supporting since the February 13 break-out. Even the 1D CCI turned oversold and rebounded, which is consistent with all bottom buys inside the Channel Up.
The Bullish Leg can extend to as high as +5.05% but due to the presence of the Inner Higher Highs trend-line, we first target 1.3850 (+3.43% rise).
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NZDJPY “Kiwi Poised to Fly as Japan Muddles ThroughNZDJPY shows a bullish breakout from a descending trendline, with bullish structure holding near 87.20–87.25.
Key resistance targets:
87.97 (Previous high)
88.64 (Next resistance / projected fib target)
Two upside scenarios are shown:
Conservative target: ~87.97
Aggressive swing: ~88.64
If 87.00–87.20 zone holds as support, expect bullish continuation.
🧩 Current Bias: Bullish
📌 Key Fundamentals Driving NZDJPY
NZD Side (Strengthening):
RBNZ hawkish hold: RBNZ recently kept rates at 5.50% and warned that inflation remains persistent, requiring prolonged tight policy.
Resilient NZ GDP: Stronger-than-expected GDP print signals economic resilience.
Terms of trade improvement: Commodity exports holding firm, China consumption rebound showing hints of demand recovery (see recent 618 festival sales data).
AUD correlation: AUD and NZD are moving together; if AUD strengthens, NZD often follows.
JPY Side (Weakening):
BoJ remains ultra-dovish: Despite inflation trends, BoJ is hesitant to tighten further, preferring gradual tapering.
Yen under pressure from yield differentials: Global central banks (like RBNZ, Fed) remain hawkish while BoJ is not.
Geopolitical funding flows: JPY used as a funding currency amid global volatility (carry trade boost for NZDJPY).
⚠️ Risks That May Reverse the Trend
BoJ surprise tightening rhetoric (e.g. bond purchase taper announcement).
China data deterioration, hurting Kiwi sentiment.
Sharp equity sell-off and geopolitical escalation (Yen safe-haven reversal).
📅 Important News to Watch
🇳🇿 NZ Trade Balance (upcoming)
🇯🇵 Tokyo Core CPI (Jun 28) – Critical for BoJ policy speculation.
RBNZ or BoJ member speeches (hawkish or dovish shifts)
Fed tone shift or US dollar strength spillover
🏁 Who Leads the Move?
NZDJPY could lead among yen crosses due to the RBNZ’s clear inflation fight versus BoJ’s passive stance. NZDJPY is also more responsive to commodity and global risk-on flows than EURJPY or USDJPY.
Gold Ready to Shine Again? Watch This Battle Zone Closely!Gold is consolidating above the 50% retracement (3372) after defending key structure at 3368–3378. Bullish momentum is building as Silver continues to lead, and the US Dollar (DXY) weakens post-FOMC. If buyers step in here, we could see a clean breakout toward 3415–3450 and beyond. But if 3368 breaks, the bull case is temporarily invalidated.
🧭 Technical Highlights:
✅ Support Zone: 3368–3378 (Fibonacci + bullish order block)
✅ Resistance Targets: 3395, 3415.84, 3451.84, 3470+
🔄 Silver Divergence: XAGUSD broke higher → leading XAU bullishly
🔼 Bias: Bullish (as long as 3368 holds)
🌐 Fundamental Drivers:
🏦 Fed dot plot turns dovish – Only 1–2 cuts, but no hikes planned; supports gold upside.
⚔️ Middle East tensions rising – Iran vs. Israel/US rhetoric keeps risk premium high.
📉 DXY weakens after Powell avoided hawkish tone; real yields remain capped.
💬 Silver outperforming on safe-haven + industrial hedge flows.
💡 Trading Plan Summary:
Buy Zone: 3372–3380
TP Zones: 3395, 3415, 3450+
Invalidation: Close below 3368
Confirmation: Break and close above 3395 with volume = signal to scale in
🔔 Keep an eye on:
US Jobless Claims, SNB & BoE Decisions
DXY 98.70 key level
Silver reaction near 36.70–37.20
Market next move 🔻 Disruptive Analysis – Bearish Scenario
1. Resistance Rejection:
Price has stalled around 145.40, showing hesitation.
The target area (~148.000) hasn't been tested yet, and prior attempts to break higher may face heavy resistance from institutional sell orders or prior supply zones.
2. Range-Bound Structure:
Current price action shows consolidation — multiple small-bodied candles.
Lack of volume or momentum may indicate accumulation or distribution — not necessarily a bullish breakout setup.
3. Potential Bearish Triggers:
If price breaks below 145.00, a short-term bearish move could occur toward:
144.30 – recent swing low support.
143.80 – demand zone based on prior accumulation.
4. Macro Disruptors:
Surprise BoJ intervention or hawkish policy tone could strengthen the Yen.
A dovish Fed statement or poor U.S. economic data could drag USD down sharply.
---
📉 Alternate Scenario Chart Sketch (Hypothetical):
148.000 ──────── (Target denied - strong resistance)
↑
Rejection
↓
145.000 ──────── (Breaks support)
↓
144.300 ──────── (First bearish target)
↓
143.800 ──────── (Deeper retracement zone)
Gold Eyes Breakout from Ascending Channel Toward $3,500📈 Chart Analysis
1. Rising Channel Structure
Gold (XAU/USD) has been trading within an upward-sloping channel, marked by the blue trendlines connecting interior lows and highs, culminating at point C (~$3,497). The latest bounce off the lower channel near “B” reinforces bullish bias – if this trendline holds, another leg higher toward resistance around $3,497–$3,500 is likely.
2. Support & Resistance Confluence
The purple trendline and the dotted horizontal green level (~$3,498) converge near the projected breakout point. This synergy provides a strong pivot zone — a successful breakout would validate targets near channel highs.
3. Harmonic Pattern in Play
The chart displays a bullish harmonic structure (likely a Bat or Gartley formation), with retracement ratios (0.719, 1.627) anchoring reversal areas. These reinforce the bounce at B and the potential move toward point C.
4. Trade Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (primary): A bounce off the trendline triggers a rally to the channel top and resistance zone ($3,497–$3,500).
Bearish Caution: A drop below the trendline invalidates the pattern, potentially bringing prices back to horizontal support around $3,296 or even $3,120, as indicated at point A.
🛠️ Technical & Market Context
Technicals: Daily trend remains bullish as long as price holds above ~$3,340–$3,350, with resistance forming in the $3,380–$3,400 range
Fundamentals: Geopolitical tension (e.g., Middle East conflict) and safe-haven inflows continue to underpin gold — though Citi expects prices to eventually correct toward $3,300–$3,500 mid‑term
.
Sentiment: Some analysts advocate “selling the rallies,” especially into the $3,450–$3,500 zone . But central banks’ ongoing buying and potential Fed rate cuts support a stronger floor
.
✅ Trade Strategy
Scenario Entry Zone Target Stop Loss Placement
Play the Bounce ~$3,350–$3,360 $3,497–$3,500 Below trendline near B zone (~$3,320)
Breakout Trade On momentum above $3,400 $3,497–$3,550 Below breakout (sub-$3,380)
Bearish Trigger Break & close below trendline Back to $3,296 / 3,120 Just above trendline ($3,360)
🔍 Summary
Gold remains in a structurally bullish setup inside an ascending channel. The confluence of harmonic reversal, strong trendline support, and pending fundamental catalysts presents a high-probability opportunity to push toward the $3,500 area—provided the trendline and $3,340–$3,350 support hold. A drop below would invalidate the bullish outlook and favor deeper retracement.
EURNZD: Bearish Move From Resistance 🇪🇺🇳🇿
EURNZD is going to retrace from a strong daily resistance cluster.
As a confirmation signal, I see a bearish breakout of a support line
of a rising wedge pattern on an hourly time frame.
Goal - 1.9144
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Market next target
🔻 Bearish Disruption Analysis
1. Overbought Conditions / RSI Exhaustion
The recent bullish momentum appears strong, but it could be entering overbought territory, especially on the 1-hour chart.
A correction may follow if technical indicators like RSI or MACD start diverging.
2. Resistance Zone at 1.35000 - 1.35500
The price is nearing a historical resistance area around 1.3500–1.3550, where sellers have previously stepped in.
Without strong volume or a news catalyst, this zone may reject further upside movement.
3. Low Volume Breakout
The breakout visible before the arrows is accompanied by relatively moderate volume, which can indicate a false breakout or bull trap.
4. Fundamental Uncertainty
Upcoming U.S. or UK economic data (indicated by the flags on the chart) could disrupt the expected bullish move.
Example: A strong USD labor report or hawkish Fed comment could reverse the GBP/USD rally.
Bearish reversal?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 0.6036
1st Support: 0.5965
1st Resistance: 0.6080
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?The Loonie (USD/CAD) is falling towards the pivot which acts as an overlap support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.3651
1st Support: 1.3581
1st Resistance: 1.3735
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Market next move 🟥 Disrupted Analysis: Bearish Divergence on EUR/USD (1H)
Weak Support Zone:
The price labeled as "Support" was never a well-tested zone. It appears to be a minor structure, and the bounce lacks strong confirmation or significant volume.
Volume Decline During Rise:
The recent upward candles show shrinking volume, a sign that the buying momentum is weakening, not strengthening. Bulls are losing energy.
Potential Double Top Formation:
If price action near current levels stalls, a double top could form, which is a classic bearish reversal pattern. Watch for rejection below 1.1550.
Bearish Target Zone (if reversal begins):
First target: 1.1450 (minor support)
Break below that opens 1.1370 zone (volume support area)
---
📉 Disrupted Price Path (Opposing the Yellow Arrow)
Rejection
↓
┌─────────┐
│ ▼
│ Pullback to "Support"
▼ │
Breakdown │
▼ │
Target Zone ▼
Market next target Disrupted Analysis: Bearish Outlook on Gold CFDs (1H Chart)
Support Breakdown Imminent:
The price is repeatedly testing the support area marked in red. Instead of holding strong, this indicates weak buyer interest. Volume is not spiking in support, showing no accumulation behavior.
Volume Divergence:
Despite prices consolidating near support, volume is decreasing, suggesting lack of conviction from bulls. This often precedes bearish breakdowns.
Bearish Targets:
If the current level at 3,352.990 breaks down decisively:
Immediate target: 3,320.000
Extended bearish move: 3,280.000 (prior demand zone)
Price Action Signals:
Lower highs forming consistently.
No bullish engulfing or reversal candles in sight.
Stronger bearish momentum candles (long red bodies with volume).
---
📉 Suggested Disruption Chart Path (Instead of Bullish Arrow):
Support Area
↓
┌───────┐
│ │
▼ │
Breakdown │
▼ │
Retest Fail │
▼ │
Bearish Slide▼
GBPJPY: End of Consolidation Phase, Eyes on 200.000?Hey Realistic Traders!
Could this be the beginning of a major bullish wave ?
Let’s Break It Down..
On the daily timeframe, GBPJPY has formed a Symmetrical Triangle Pattern, followed by a bullish breakout, a classic technical signal that typically marks the end of a consolidation phase and the start of a new bullish trend. This move is further confirmed by the appearance of a strong bullish candlestick, reflecting a surge in buying momentum.
Supporting this bullish scenario, the MACD indicator has also formed a bullish crossover, where the MACD line crosses above the signal line. This crossover is widely regarded as a momentum shift from bearish to bullish, strengthening the case for continued upward movement.
Given these technical signals, the price is likely to advance toward the first target at 200.411, with a potential extension to 204.808.
This bullish outlook remains valid as long as the price holds above the key stop-loss level at 192.730.
Support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on OANDA:GBPJPY ".
market next move 🔻 Bearish Disruption Perspective:
1. Breakdown of the Support Zone
The highlighted red box is acting as support.
However, multiple retests of this zone indicate weakening support.
If price breaks below ~$35.50 decisively, it could trigger a bearish continuation.
2. Low Volume on Recent Candles
Volume appears to be declining during the latest consolidation phase.
A bullish breakout ideally requires increasing volume, which is not evident here.
This could indicate lack of buyer interest at this level.
3. Downtrend Momentum
The price is in a clear short-term downtrend (series of lower highs and lower lows).
Without a strong reversal signal (like a hammer, bullish engulfing), expecting a breakout may be premature.
4. Fundamental Risk Factors
Silver often reacts strongly to:
Interest rate decisions
USD strength
Inflation data
Bearish reversal?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 145.80
1st Support: 144.54
1st Resistance: 146.74
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish rise?The Cable (GBP/USD) has bounced off the pivot which is an overlap support and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.3403
1st Support: 1.3319
1st Resistance: 1.3517
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.