London Session Forex Market Analysis: USD Strength Leads the wayHi Traders,
Here’s a quick market analysis for the London session.
We’ve observed some notable movements in the currency pairs under review. As a quick recap from our weekly trade planning session (Portfolio Selection):
Strong currencies: USD remains the leader, followed by JPY, CAD, CHF, and AUD.
Weak currencies: EUR, NZD, and GBP.
The USD's bullish momentum is clearly dominating across the board, providing opportunities to target selling the weaker currencies against the USD.
Remember to approach the markets with a clear plan and stick to your trading plan.
Happy Trading!
Forexstrategy
USD/JPY Long Setup: Gap Fill in Focus
A recent price gap on the USD/JPY chart suggests potential for a long position. Given the price gap, we expect a possible gap fill scenario similar to last week, where the price moved to close the gap. This provides an opportunity to enter a long trade, anticipating upward movement with a careful stop loss.
Support Zone : 151.650 - 151.752
Stop Loss: 151.596
Take Profit : 152.878
WHAT ARE GOLD GOING TO DO? HERE IS THE COMPLETE ANALYSIS 2H TFTechnical Analysis: Currently, XAU/USD is approaching the resistance level at $2790, where I believe we could see a significant selling opportunity. This level has historically acted as a barrier, and recent price action suggests that bullish momentum may be waning. If the price reaches $2790, I anticipate a potential reversal, with targets set for a downward move towards $2765. A break below $2775 would further confirm bearish sentiment, opening the door for additional downside.
Fundamental Analysis: The gold market is heavily influenced by shifts in monetary policy and global economic conditions. With the Federal Reserve signaling a potential tightening of interest rates and ongoing concerns over inflation, investors may look to liquidate positions in gold as the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets rises. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and market volatility could prompt a flight to safety, but if these factors stabilize, we could see a shift in sentiment favoring dollar strength. This backdrop supports the notion of a sell-off in XAU/USD from $2790 to $2765 as traders adjust their positions in response to changing economic signals. Let’s watch for these developments!
EURUSD / TRADING UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE - 4HEURUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
The prices are currently trending lower, indicating a bearish market sentiment. The next move depends on whether the prices break below or hold certain levels.
Zone between 1.112 and 1.110 , This is identified as a key demand zone, meaning buyers may step in here to prevent further decline. If prices hold in this zone, there’s potential for a reversal upward.
If the price closes below this range based on a 4-hour candle , it suggests continued bearish momentum.
If prices fall below the demand zone, the next target would be between 1.107 and 1.104. This area is likely seen as a FVG , where the price may stabilize or find new demand.
Stabilizing above 1.112 indicates bullish strength and suggests potential upward movement ,The next resistance levels are 1.117 and, if broken, the price could further rise to 1.122.
Supply Zone : 1.117 and 1.125.
Demand Zone : 1.112 and 1.110.
FVG : 1.107 and 1.104.
TSLA / UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE - 4HTSLA / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Currently, prices are trading below the turning level at 250, which indicates a potential for downward pressure.
If prices remain below 250, it suggests a potential decline towards 214. Should prices stabilize below this level, further declines towards 194 could be expected.
However, if prices break above 250, confirmed by a 1D or 4H candle close, the market may shift to an upward momentum, potentially reaching 264 and 277. Breaking the channel at these levels would indicate the activation of an upward trend zone.
Turning Level : 250
GBPJPY / TRADING UNDER DOWNWARD PRESSURE - 4HGBPJPY / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Current Market Analysis:
Trading below the turning level at 188.478 and within a descending channel, indicating a bearish trend.
Downward Conditions:
As long as the price remains below 188.478, the trend suggests a potential decline , If the price continues to trade below 188.478, it may decline towards support levels at 183.218 and 180.212.
Upward Conditions:
A 4-hour candle close above 188.478 would signal a potential shift in momentum , If the price breaks above 188.478 and stabilizes, it could rise towards 191.993 and, further, to 196.534.
TURNING LEVEL : 188.478
XAUUSD / UNDER CPI PRESSURE - 4HXAUUSD - 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
USDJPY , is currently trading below the supply zone between 2,519$ and 2,526$ and remains below the resistance trendline, indicating downward momentum. There are two potential scenarios:
First Scenario (CPI Higher than Expected)
If the CPI reading comes in higher than expected, this typically indicates stronger inflation. In response, the market may anticipate the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, like raising interest rates. Higher rates strengthen the U.S. dollar and increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold , A higher CPI reading would be perceived as , In this case, gold could drop to 2,507$ , and potentially further down to 2,491$ , After this, stabilization is expected below this range, possibly reaching 2,472$ .
Second Scenario (CPI Lower than Expected)
If the CPI reading is lower than expected, it suggests that inflation is easing. This could lead to expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause or slow rate hikes, which could weaken the U.S. dollar and benefit gold, A lower CPI reading would be , The price could rise to 2,526$ , then 2,531$ , Above these levels, gold might reach a new historical peak at 2,551$.
UPWARD TARGET :
2,526$ , 2,531$ , 2,551$.
DOWNWARD TARGET :
2,507$ , 2,491$ , 2,472$.
NAS100USD / TRADING INTO SENSITIVE AREA - 4HNAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Current Market Analysis:
The current price is trading within a sensitive range, specifically between the support level at 18,688 and the resistance level at 19,088. The direction of future price movements will largely depend on a breakout on either side of this range.
- Downward Condition:
If the price breaks below 18,688 and stabilizes beneath this level, it may signal a potential decline. In this case, the price could drop to test the next support levels at 18,317 and 17,876.
-Upward Condition:
Conversely, if the price breaks above 19,088 and stabilizes above this resistance, it may indicate a bullish move. The price could then rise towards 19,535, and if momentum continues, it may further ascend to 19,844.
Upward Target :
19,535 , 19,844.
Downward Target :
18,317 , 17,876.
USDJPY H4 Downtrend: Sell the Pullback on 15-Min ChartThe USDJPY H4 remains firmly in a strong downtrend. The recent price action shows a powerful extension wave downward. We're focusing on selling the pullback on the 15-minute chart.
Targets are set at 140.27 for the first and 139.59 for the second.
Stop at 141.97.
Happy Trading!
XAUUSD / STILL CONTINUES A DOWNTREND - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
overall , prices under downward pressure , until trading below 2,507$ , yesterday prices rising to reach turning level , currently trading below it , have two scenario .
The first scenario, where gold prices remain below2,507$, suggests a downtrend because this level is acting as resistance. If prices continue to struggle below this threshold, it increases the likelihood of further declines toward the support levels at 2,491$ and 2,472$. Breaking and stabilizing below the supply zone between 2,472$ and 2,459$ would confirm a bearish trend, as it indicates that sellers are overpowering buyers, driving prices down.
In the second scenario, if the price closes a 4-hour candle above 2,507$, it signals bullish momentum. This would likely push prices to test the next resistance levels at2,519$ and 2,531$. Additionally, if the price stabilizes above 2,526$, it would suggest a breakout from the current range, potentially driving prices to new historical peaks around 2,551$. This is because breaking through key resistance often signals strong buyer interest, pushing prices higher.
KEY LEVELS :
Turning Level : 2,507$.
Resistance Levels : 2,519$ , 2,526$ , 2,531$.
Support Levels : 2,491$ , 2,472$ , 2,459$.
USOIL / UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
USOIL is currently trading above the turning level of 67.09 and remains above the support trendline, indicating upward momentum. There are two potential scenarios:
The First Scenario , USOIL's trading above 67.09 and staying above the support trendline signals strong buying interest, which suggests upward pressure. The target of 69.98 is a logical resistance level, followed by 71.59, which marks the next significant zone. Stabilization above 71.59 and 72.20 would confirm the strength of the uptrend, as breaking these levels would show that demand is outpacing supply, leading to further price gains.
The Second Scenario , If USOIL fails to maintain the 67.09 level and closes below it on a 1-hour or 4-hour chart, it indicates bearish momentum. This would increase the likelihood of a decline toward 65.35 and 63.67, the next significant support levels. A break below 65.35 could trigger a stronger downtrend as it would suggest sellers are gaining control, particularly if the price falls below the descending channel, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
KEY LEVELS :
Turning Level : 67.09.
Resistance Levels : 69.98 , 71.59.
Support Levels : 65.35 , 63.67.
EURUSD | Long From Support ZoneFollowing a recent inner descending channel on the EURUSD we have reached a key support zone where a potential pivot could create a lower high in the overall bull trend and surge the euro back up and out of the current inner channel.
With the key resistance zone lying around 1.12000 I can see price pushing to this level before either correcting back in the range or pushing above into the resistance zone and creating a higher high which would again validate the current market structure for the overall bull trend in ascending fashion.
What are your thoughts?
GBPUSD- Trend Continuation setupSuccessful trading is knowing what to do and doing what you know. The knowing part is very simple but the doing part is not easy that is why most people struggle in trading.
This afternoon, during the New York session, my focus is on GBP/USD. We are buying based on the H4 timeframe, where the wave structure remains bullish since the price hasn’t closed below 1.30877.
Another confirmation comes from the H1, which has only shown three waves down so far. While a fifth wave may appear, it’s likely to be a higher low following the current upward move on the M15 chart.
As long as the M15 stays above the New York session opening range, we will continue buying.
Happy Trading!
XAUUSD / TRADING INTO RANGE CONTINUES - 4HXAUUSD / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , prices is under downward pressure , until trading below turning level or supply zone between 2,525$ and 2,531$ .
Downward Condition : With the price holding steady at the current turning level at 2,425$ , it is likely to decline towards the support level of 2,507$. If it stabilizes below this level, it could then reach the next target level of 2,491$ .
Upward Condition : for an upward , a potential is expected if the price breaks the supply zone between 2,525$ and 2,531$ , leading to a rise toward the resistance level (1) at 2,538$ . For a sustained increase, the price must breaking the resistance level (1) to reach the next resistance at 2,555$ .
XAUUSD / buy above 2.525$
SL : 2,523$
TP : 2,531$
TP : 2,538$
XAUUSD / sell below 2,525$
SL : 2,528$
TP : 2,520$
TP : 2,516$
TP : 2,507$
SNXUSDT / TRADING BELOW TURNING LEVEL - 4HSNXUSDT - 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , prices is under downward pressure , until trading below turning level at 1.557 .
Downward Condition: With the price holding steady at the current turning level at 1.557 , it is likely to decline towards the support level of 1.445. If it stabilizes below this level, it could then reach the next target level of 1.284 .
Upward Condition : for an upward , a potential is expected if the price breaks the turning level at 1.557 , leading to a rise toward the resistance level (1) at 1.660 . For a sustained increase, the price must breaking the resistance level (1) to reach the next resistance at 1.767 .
TARGET UPWARD ZONE :
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : 1.660 .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : 1.767 .
TARGET DOWNWARD ZONE :
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : 1.445 .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : 1.284 .
TURNING LEVEL : 1.557 .
BOJ Raises Interest Rates - Monthly Outlook for USDJPYTaking a look at the monthly timeframe, if you look back in the past, whenever we had a strong bearish engulfing candle, there was usually a second bearish candle afterwards.
I believe there is a great chance that this pair will break below the green ascending trendline and eventually reach 130.
Some key comments made last night from the BoJ's Governor Ueda:
* If possible a US rate cut happens gradually, it could lead to strong a Yen.
* The weak Yen was not necessarily the biggest reason for the rate hike this time.
* Hard to tell when the next rate hike may be
* Does not have 0.50% policy rate in mind as a ceiling
* I don't believe the latest rate hike will trigger a strong brake on the economy.
Later this afternoon we will get the latest US monetary policy decision.
Furthermore, as we all know, the US equity market tends to have an inverted correlation with the Yen. This means if US stocks continue to sell off heading into the elections, we might see some additional strength with the Yen and thus push this pair even lower.
USDJPY - Top Down AnalysisStarting with the weekly timeframe, there's some quite noticable bearish Divergence with price action and RSI leading me to believe prices may continue further south.
Let's take a look at the daily timeframe.
On the daily timeframe, I have 2 bearish targets but first I need to see a bit of a pullback towards the descending level of resistance. Reason I'm looking for a bullish pullback is because RSI is currently in the oversold territory. We also have a BOJ interest rate decision this evening at 11:00pm EST.
Let's take a closer look at the 4 hour timeframe
On the 4 hr timeframe I'm waiting for a breakout of the current consolidating range. I'm hoping for a bullish breakout which will lead into my AOI (area of interest) to look for a shorting opportunity.
Lastly let's take a look at the 1 hour.
On the 1 hour timeframe, it's easier to see how much room to the upside I'm waiting for. If we reach the descending level of resistance, I'll monitor the bullish momentum to ensure I'm not entering a short when bulls are strong.
For that reason I have an alert set in place and now all I need to do is wait!
That's it - That's all
Trade Safe
GBPUSD Bullish Trend ContinuationThe GBPUSD has made a wave structure (3) which signifies a strong up-trend is ongoing and we should be expecting a test or a break of the high.
The Current price area is a High probability Buy Zone using the Fibonacci.
Buy Profit Targets : T1 1.2849 & T2: 1.2902
Stop Loss:1.2733
GBP/USD - Continuation TradeWe have a completed Up-Trend wave structure in the Cable.
Yesterday we saw a pullback below Structure 4 which is a reset structure.
The price has stalled at the DH3 which was a Buy point for the last rally that took place yesterday.
This is a high-probability setup.
BUY Point 1.2754
STOP Loss: 1.2744
PROFIT Target: 1.2816