USD/CAD Trend reset - Buy ContinuationMomentum preceeds prices!
The USDCAD has had a trend reset (Secondary Trend), which is key to the Up-trend continuation.
The structural point for trend reversal is 1.3656, we want to see a second breakdown below the structure without breaking below 1.3624. A trade back above 1.3656 will be the first buy, confirmation will be a trade above 1.3671.
In terms of Target, we will use the Fibonacci retracement from the low to the high of 3.
Target 1: 1.3780
Target 2: 1.3838
Initial Stop Loss: 1.3624
Forexstrategy
USD/JPY Market Analysis: Downside CorrectionThe USD/JPY has been a tricky customer in the past few weeks.
We have attempted a few shorts which did not work out, the price persisted to the upside eventually breaking key structures that hold the downside.
The Bullish breaks confirm the Longer-term trend (Bullish) has resumed, however, the current rally is losing steam and we can capture a strong reversal to reset the trend.
Overview and breakdown
Current Trend: UP-Trend
Next Expectation: Downside Correction (Secondary Trend) to discount the rally for a reset of the Up-trend and to offer a lower price discount.
Area of target: Target 1: 156.28 & Target 2: 155.23 These areas represent the key structural points. The second target is the most technical point that represents the last untested structure. This point is the safety point for the buyers that enter the bullish trend at a later date. In most cases, the price correction (Secondary trend) will get here.
Another important thing to note with the 2nd Target is that; it corresponds nicely with the Fibonacci Buy-Zone measured from the Low of the entire rise to the High.
Risk and Stop Loss: Price 157.25; Technical Stop above the Momentum High.
EURCAD Low Risk Pair to Trade This WeekSo I've been getting some questions from some of my students and followers regarding what are some low risk pairs to trade this week.
The first thing I like to do when deciding on which pair to trade is find the pair that is primarily consolidating on larger timeframes such as the daily.
After spotting a consolidating pair, I then want to decide which side I should only enable with my EAs and Bots. In this example, since we are approaching support with little economic data on the agenda this week, I'm only interested in enabling the long side.
When I say enable the side long, I mean enable just the buy side with my EAs that trade in a grid technique, where it will trade micro lots and continue adding if the pair continues to trade against me. By trading micro lots relative to the account balance, I can afford not to use stop loses and look to add hundreds of positions if needed and I'll still be in a good position.
Hope that all makes sense.
That's it - That's all
Trade Safe
GBPUSD buy opportunity just wait for flying soon Gbpusd possible resistance zone around the level where we can also find the confluence with the red moving average This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the level to position for a breakout below the support The buyers on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to start targeting the trendline around the level
Powerful Fibonacci Trading Strategy For Beginners
I am going to reveal a powerful fibonacci trading strategy that I learned many years ago. It combines structure analysis, fibonacci retracement and extension levels and candlestick analysis.
Step 1
Find a trending market - the market that is trading in a bullish or in a bearish trend on a daily time frame.
AUDUSD is trading in a bullish trend on a daily.
Step 2
Execute structure analysis - identify key horizontal and vertical structures on a daily time frame.
Take a look at key structures that I spotted on AUDUSD.
Step 3
Draw fibonacci retracement levels.
Here are the important ratios you should look for: 382, 50, 618, 786.
In a bearish trend,
draw fibonacci retracement levels from the high of the trend to current low based on wicks.
In a bullish trend,
You should apply fibonacci retracement from the low of the trend to a current high based on wicks.
Take a look how I draw the retracement levels,
I took the low of the trend and the high of the trend.
Step 4
Find confluence.
Look for fibonacci numbers that match - lie within key structures that you identified.
Support 1 matches with 382 retracement.
Support 2 matches with 786 retracement.
Remove other ratios from the chart.
Step 5
Wait for a test of one of the fibonacci levels that match with key structure
The price perfectly tested 382 retracement level.
Step 6
Wait for a confirmation on a 4h time frame.
Our confirmation will be a formation of an engulfing candle - a strong candle that completely engulfs the entire range of a previous candle with its body.
In a bearish trend, we will look for a formation of a bearish engulfing candle. Bearish engulfing candle indicates a strong selling pressure and the strength of the sellers.
In a bullish trend, we will look for a bullish engulfing candle. It indicates a strong buying reaction and imbalance.
Have a look at a bullish engulfing candle that was formed on AUDUSD on a 4H time frame after a test of 382 retracement.
Step 7
Open a trading position, set stop loss and choose the target.
After you spotted an engulfing candle, open a trading position.
Open short after a formation of a bearish engulfing candle and open long after a formation of a bullish engulfing candle.
If you sell, your safest stop loss will be 1.272 extension of the last bullish impulse on a 4H.
If you buy, your stop loss will be 1.272 extension of the last bearish impulse on a 4H.
In our example, our stop loss will be 1.272 extension of a bearish impulse leg on a 4H time frame. The extension is based on high and low of the impulse.
If you short, your take profit will be the closest key structure support on a daily.
If you buy, your take profit will be the closes key structure resistance on a daily.
Here is our take profit level.
Being applied properly, the strategy should generate 60%+ winning rate.
Always remember to check your reward to risk ratio before you open the trade. It should be at least 1.1/1.
Also, before you place a trade, always make sure that you trade WITH the trend and take only trend-following trades.
The strategy works perfectly on Forex, Gold, Silver, Oil, Indexes.
Good luck in your trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
BTCUSD strong sell opportunity big fallThe dynamics of Bitcoin trading are ever changing and the failed breakout on The 1-hour chart is a a stark reminder of the volatility and uncertainty inherent in cryptocurrency markets Whether Bitcoin will bounce back or continue its descent is a question only time will answer For now traders should brace for a potential test of the green support line and prepare their strategies accordingly Stay vigilante keep an eye on the key levels and trade with discipline
Let the potential longs beginYesterdays structure...... US30s Monday created a BOS structure from 09:00 until Tuesdays 01:00 of the 4hr timeframe. I was able to setup up a buying position from the 1min and will see if it can trend until Wednesday/Thursday structure.
This can be an upcoming trend of the year
Ps: As a prop firm trader, I do not have a swing account but I can see it going long
KOG - Simple Trading Strategy Simple Trading Strategy - Generate your own take profit targets.
Today we're going to share with you a simple yet effective trading strategy that can be used on any instrument. Like any other trading strategy its not 100%, but, you can see from that illustration how effective it can be in keeping you in the right direction on a pair. You can add Moving averages to this as well as which ever indicators you prefer to use and fine tune the strategy to make it work for you. We must stress, with this strategy you have to have a confident ability in charting and have an understanding of support and resistance levels as well as key zones and regions of liquidity.
The bonus with the strategy is it can be applied to all time frames, it can be used to swing trade on longer time frames and to scalp on short time frames. So when we publish our daily morning reviews with our levels and say "LEVEL TO LEVEL" trading, this strategy gives you an idea of what we're suggesting. Also, when we share our 15M levels and zones you can apply this strategy to trade your way up or down to the target.
So lets begin:
1) Start with the 4H chart
2) Look for price action where the price was previously in the same range
3) Use the highs and the lows of swings to plot your support and resistance lines
4) Switch to the 1hr chart
5) You are looking for candle body closes above or below the support or resistance lines. The bigger the candle body close the more accurate the target above is.
We can use this strategy to take numerous trades in up and down until the target level is reached.
This strategy also helps you with your entries and exits. Once you plot the lines and see the price is in between two lines of support and resistance, you will know not to enter a trade. Wait for the pull back on the smaller timeframe or for your chosen indicator to give you the signal!!
NOTE:
• Lines can never be accurate but try to get them as precise as possible
• You must update your lines daily as support and resistance levels change
• You must have a risk strategy in place. On most occasions there will be a pullback or retracement on price which can put you in drawdown.
• Money and risk management are priority when using this strategy.
• Nothing is 100% but once you add the Excalibur target to the chart you have clearer idea of direction.
ALWAYS REMEMBER:
MAs and indicators are lagging, when using this strategy try to keep it simple and clean. Basic support and resistance levels along with a decent candle body close.
Try it, backtest it, apply it. Let us know your findings.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
AUDUSD 5:1 R2R Trade IdeaWith everything going on, I'm looking to enter at 0.6585 with a stop loss just below the last 4hr candle's low. I do have a target set at 0.6678 giving this trade idea a 5:1 risk-2-reward.
Reasons why I like this trade include:
1. Economic Calendar forecasts this week are for negative US data
2. Technically on the 4hr, RSI closed above 50 following a hammer + bullish engulfing.
3. Last week equity market closed for the week at all time highs once again. I believe we may see some further bullish strength this week in equities which could add some strength to the risk-on currency pairs such as the AUD, CAD, & NZD .
THE KOG REPORTKOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we mentioned there will be a lot of ranging in the markets towards the end and beginning of 23/24 so to expect sudden bursts of volume. We saw just this last week in the markets across most of the pairs we’re trading. We suggested swing trading the market this time of year wouldn’t be part of our plan, and instead, if they held the levels we would stick with the bias and trade it level to level upside until we had completed our targets. We gave the higher target as 2068 with the bias as bullish above 2010, as you can see price moved well into the target region where as expected in Camelot, we got a reaction in price giving us an opportunity to short the market to end the week.
Another great week in Camelot, not only on Gold but also on the numerous other pairs we trade, analyse and post targets on.
So, what can we expect in the ahead?
We have intraday support now turned resistance sitting above 2060-65 which price may want to target on market open, and if held, an opportunity to short down into the order region could be on the cards. This order region is where we want to monitor price action and look for any Excalibur activations as well as red box confirmation. If supported, we feel an opportunity to long the market back up into the levels of 2070 and above that 2085 (for now) are available for those looking to long the lows. Please note, what we have to be careful of here is the extension of the move which can stretch produce a hunt on those going long down into the 2020-17 region, so let’s expect that for the week ahead.
On the flip, because of the extension of the move and if we get a break and hold below 2030 and then 2020, we’ll be looking to target the 2000-1995 region to close the year and trade it level to level on the downside.
Levels to watch:
Support – 2035 / 2030 / 2022 / 2020 / 2018 Key level
Resistance 2055 / 2060 / 2062 / 2065 key level
KOG’s Bias for the week:
Bullish above 2020 with targets above 2070
Bearish on break of 2020 with targets below 2010
Wishing you all a great Christmas and week ahead, once the markets open.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
DXY D1 - Short SignalDXY D1
Riding the waves of the recent dollar sell-off with style!Currently, we're witnessing a sweet relief rally, flirting with the impressive 104.000 mark and teasing to go even further🚀
Mondays are notoriously chill on the economic data front, and today is no exception. Brace yourself for the excitement, though – tomorrow promises to be the real showstopper! Still bearish bias until this 104.000 resistance zone breaks.
All eyes on the US inflation figures set to make their grand entrance during UK lunchtime at 13:30pm.
THE KOG REPORTKOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would like to see how the market opened and how the lower support regions 1975 and below that 1968 would hold up price. Based on these levels holding we suggested opportunities to long the market to firstly attempt the break of the 2000 level and then the target region of 2015. We gave the order region 1950-55, price bullish above, and KOG’s bias of the week level 1970 bullish above with target levels 1999 and 2015 for the week.
As you can see, price did hold above with a slight dip lower than 1968 but we stuck with KOG’s daily bias which was shared daily with traders and completed not only the 1999 level, but also numerous level to level gold targets on the way up with 2015 still open! A great week for us on the markets, not just on Gold but the numerous other pairs we trade and share netting a phenomenal pip capture for our traders.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
To start with, with can expect more aggressive price action across the markets so please trade carefully, or, don’t trade at all. Money is also made while sitting and cash in your account is a position in the market. New traders should ideally be watching and practicing, using this time to further educate themselves and develop their strategies. These markets are only after one thing, your money! If you get this wrong, it can go horribly wrong, so levels, entries, exits and your risk model are really important.
The chart shows the levels for the week we have highlighted with the key reaction zones we’ll be looking at. We’re still open for last week’s target level at 2015 but a pull back would be ideal. For that reason, if we start with bullish momentum into that resistance level and hold, based on a clean set up, we feel an opportunity to short the market is on the cards, initially into the immediate support 1995-90 and then below that 1975. Our bias remains as bullish above, however, there is a chance there may be some profit taking this week, so expect the unexpected, if that level breaks, we’ll be looking lower into the 1950-55 region to then attempt the long trade.
On the flip, if we start the session and week with a move to the downside, we will be looking for immediate resistance levels to hold and take this down into that 1975 region level to level on the short side looking for support levels to hold in order to take this back up into that 2015 level and above that 2022.
We’ll use our daily bias and targets as well as the red box strategy together with our trusted Excalibur to guide us. What we don’t want to do here at this point of the market is buy upside when there is potential for this to correct some of this move. So levels are key here!
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Crafting Your Path to Success: Developing a Winning Trading Plan
In the world of forex trading, a solid trading plan is your compass to navigate the markets successfully. It's the blueprint that defines your strategy, risk tolerance, and objectives. In this comprehensive guide, we'll delve into the art of developing a trading plan, providing you with the insights and examples you need to create a roadmap for your trading journey.
The Blueprint for Success: Developing Your Trading Plan
1. Set Clear Goals and Objectives 🎯
Your trading plan should begin with a clear understanding of what you aim to achieve in the forex market. Are you seeking short-term gains or long-term investments? Defining your goals will help shape the rest of your plan.
2. Choose Your Trading Strategy 📊
Your plan should outline the trading strategy you'll employ. Will you focus on technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or a combination of both? Specify the indicators, chart patterns, or news events you'll use to make trading decisions.
3. Define Risk Management Rules 💼
Risk management is a cornerstone of a successful trading plan. Outline how much capital you'll risk per trade, set stop-loss levels, and determine your position sizing strategy. This section is vital for protecting your account from significant losses.
A well-developed trading plan is your ticket to success in the forex market. It provides clarity, discipline, and a structured approach to trading. By setting clear goals, choosing a suitable strategy, and implementing robust risk management, you'll be well on your way to crafting a trading plan that can guide you toward your financial aspirations. Remember, your trading plan is a dynamic document that should evolve as your experience and market conditions change, so review and adapt it regularly to stay on the path to success. 📈📝🚀
Hey traders, let me know what subject do you want to dive in in the next post?
EURNZD | 2.67 Reward To Risk TradeThis is bearish potential trade on EURNZD
12 hour timeframe is bearish. A new low was made on Friday.
Price can go lower overnight. If it does
we can adjust the take profit.
Stop loss and entry will stay the same.
Stop loss and entry are noted as
Entry: 1.77394
Stop loss: 1.74882
You can move stop loss higher if you prefer more room for the trade to breathe.
Belief: For God did not give me a spirit of fear, but of power, love, and a sound mind.
Rather this trade wins or losses, I pray God for the opportunity.
If you liked this analysis please like this analysis and share it with another fellow trader.
Much love,
Shaquan
THE ART OF RANGE MANAGEMENT - WITH THE TREND OR AGAINST Hey Everyone,
Here at GVFX, we are currently buying dips. What that means is that we buy on the dips and therefore only concentrate on long positions/buys with the odd sells for fun. As mentioned before, having both sell and buy positions open in your account will affect your psychology and in turn, your trading decisions.
Now a question that typically arises here is why would it still be advisable to buy when the market is pushing down? Firstly, let me assure you that the same algorithms, experience and strategies that we use to achieve a 97% hit rate with our bullish directional bias also gives us the heads up, or down if you will, on when the market is going down. Don't think for a moment that we only know how to analyse a bull market or up trends. We share targets/signals for both buys and sells but choose not to hedge out of choice. Our published results remain consistently profitable month in month out!!
In my experience, in the current market conditions, it is much safer to get out of a stuck buy position than a stuck sell position. That's not to mention the clean PSYCHOLOGICAL PROFILE that is achieved when trading in just one direction. And although hedging can in theory work, it requires years of experience and in the end, is simply not worth the effort. I am more than capable of hedging effectively but the fact that I do not should tell you something.
Let us look at an example to further answer the question highlighted above. When you have short-term bearish momentum down, we take buys from key supports or MAs which act as dips. Remember that the market does not go up or down in a straight line (with the rare exception of short-lived parabolic moves). So, when the market is going down and hits one of our key levels, a buy from that point will go back up for 20 to 30 or 30 to 40 pips (this number of pips has been calibrated based on back testing) before resuming back down.
You can think of it like this. The market moves in a zigzag manner. The zig is that part of the leg which is going down to create lower lows (if the downward trend is continuing). The zag is that part of the leg which takes a breather and pushes back up with momentum for our entry and quick pip-take range to create a lower high (if the downward trend is continuing) before heading back down again. We catch the right and safest waves (buys) in and out and surf to success. When price hits a key structural support or stops creating lower lows and lower highs, we then reassess for entries with a wider range of pip capture.
Hope this post helps our followers to understand how we keep our psychology strong!!
GoldViewFX
XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR