XAUUSD h4 down Bearish Continuation Assumption? Maybe Not So Fast…
The chart assumes a clean, step-by-step drop to the “Support Area,” but:
There’s a liquidity gap just above current price (~3340–3360) where stop hunts could occur.
Smart money might push price higher briefly to fill orders before any major selloff.
Forextrading
Market next target 📉 Disruption: Bearish Outlook Contradiction
1. Resistance Zone Rejection:
The price action is repeatedly failing near the 107,800–108,000 resistance zone.
The chart shows several long upper wicks, indicating strong selling pressure when BTC tries to move higher.
2. False Breakout Risk:
The recent bullish candle with a long lower wick could be a bull trap—designed to lure buyers before a reversal.
Price may retest the red box (support turned resistance) and fail to hold above it.
3. Volume Analysis:
Despite a small recovery, volume is not increasing significantly, which is not typical of a strong bullish move.
A lack of strong buyer volume could indicate exhaustion.
4. Lower High Structure:
The chart is still forming lower highs, a sign of a downtrend continuation unless it breaks above 108,000 convincingly.
What Is a Change of Character (CHoCH) and How Can You Trade It?What Is a Change of Character (CHoCH) and How Can You Trade It?
Navigating the nuances of Smart Money Concept (SMC) trading requires a keen understanding of market signals like the Change of Character (CHoCH). This concept can help traders detect and react to potential trend reversals. Today, we’ll delve into the mechanics of CHoCHs, explaining how they manifest in different market conditions and how they can be strategically leveraged for trading decisions.
Understanding Breaks of Structure
Understanding Breaks of Structure (BOS) is essential for traders before delving into concepts like Change of Character (CHoCH). A BOS in trading signifies a continuation within the current trend and is marked by a clear deviation from established swing points that indicate previous highs and lows.
In the context of an uptrend, a BOS is identified when the price exceeds a previous high without moving below the most recent higher low. This action confirms that the upward momentum is still strong and likely to continue as buyers push the market to new heights.
Similarly, in a downtrend, a BOS occurs when prices drop below a previous low without breaking the prior lower high, suggesting that sellers remain in control and the downward trend is set to persist.
By recognising these points where the market extends beyond its former bounds, traders can confirm that the current trend is robust and act accordingly. This foundational concept of BOS not only helps in assessing trend strength but also sets the stage for understanding more complex patterns like CHoCH, where the focus shifts from trend continuation to potential trend reversals.
CHoCH Trading Meaning
In trading, a Change of Character (CHoCH) signals a potential shift in market dynamics, often indicating a reversal from the prevailing trend. This concept is particularly valuable as it helps traders discern when the momentum is shifting, offering a strategic point to consider adjusting their positions.
A CHoCH occurs when there's a noticeable deviation in the market's price trend. For example, in a bullish trend characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows, a CHoCH is indicated by the price failing to set a new high and subsequently falling below a recent higher low. This suggests that buyers are losing control, and a bearish trend could be emerging.
Similarly, during a bearish trend marked by lower highs and lower lows, a bullish CHoCH would occur if the price unexpectedly breaks above a recent lower high. This break indicates that sellers are losing their grip, and a bullish trend may be starting.
The Significance of CHoCHs Across Timeframes
The fractal nature of financial markets means that patterns and behaviours recur across various timeframes, each providing unique insights and implications for trading. Understanding CHoCHs in different timeframes is crucial for traders to effectively align their strategies with both short-term opportunities and long-term trend shifts.
In intraday trading, where decisions are made on lower timeframes (like minutes or hours), a CHoCH can signal a possible short-term trend reversal. For example, if a currency pair in a downtrend on a 15-minute chart suddenly posts a higher high, this could indicate a weakening of the bearish momentum, suggesting a potential bullish reversal.
Traders might use this information to close short positions or to consider a long position, capitalising on the emerging upward trend. These short-term CHoCHs allow traders to respond quickly to market changes, potentially securing returns before larger market shifts occur.
Conversely, CHoCHs observed on higher timeframes, such as daily or weekly charts, are particularly significant because they can indicate a shift in the broader market trend that might last days, weeks, or even months. Such changes can then be used by both long and short-term traders to adjust their positioning and directional bias.
How to Identify a CHoCH
The initial step to identify a CHoCH in trading involves clearly defining the existing trend on a specific timeframe. This is done by marking the significant swing highs and lows that delineate the trend's progress. These points should represent somewhat meaningful retracements in the price, providing clear markers of trend continuity or potential reversal points.
According to the Smart Money Concept (SMC) theory, the integrity of an uptrend is maintained as long as the price does not trade through the most recent significant higher low. Conversely, a downtrend is considered intact if the price does not surpass the most recent significant lower high. Therefore, traders focus their attention on these critical points.
To identify a CHoCH, traders watch for a break in these crucial high or low points. For instance, in an uptrend, a bearish CHoCH is indicated when the price achieves a higher high but then reverses to descend below the previous significant higher low.
Similarly, in a downtrend, a bullish CHoCH occurs when the price drops to a lower low before reversing to break above the previous significant lower high, setting a new high. Both types of breaks signal a potential reversal in the trend direction.
How to Trade a CHoCH
When trading a CHoCH, it’s essential to recognise that it should be integrated with other aspects of the SMC framework to get the best results. This includes the use of order blocks and imbalances, which are key components in identifying potential reversals.
Order Blocks and Imbalances
An order block is essentially a substantial consolidation area where significant buying or selling has occurred, and prices often revisit these zones before reversing. These blocks can be seen as levels where institutional orders were previously concentrated.
An imbalance, also known as a fair value gap, occurs when the price moves sharply up or down, leaving a zone that has not been traded extensively. Price often returns to these gaps to 'fill' them, establishing equilibrium before a potential reversal happens.
In practice, traders can look for a sequence where the price first approaches an order block and begins to fill any existing imbalances. This setup increases confidence in a potential reversal. As the price meets these criteria and a CHoCH occurs, this indicates that the influence of the order block is likely to initiate a price reversal.
Practical Example on GBP/USD
Consider the 4-hour chart of the GBP/USD pair above. We see the pair encounter an order block on the left, one that’s visible on the daily chart. As the price interacts with this block, it begins to retrace, attempting to fill the imbalance but moves away. Eventually, the price completes the fill of the imbalance and meets the previously established order block.
Switching to a 1-hour timeframe, this scenario unfolds similarly. After reaching the order block on the 4-hour chart, another CHoCH occurs, signalling the start of a new uptrend. This lower timeframe CHoCH, following the meeting of the order block, corroborates the potential for a reversal initiated by the higher timeframe dynamics.
This example illustrates how CHoCHs can be effectively utilised across different timeframes, tying back to the fractal nature of markets discussed earlier. By recognising these patterns and understanding their interaction with order blocks and imbalances, traders can strategically position themselves to capitalise on potential market reversals, aligning their trades with deeper market forces at play.
CHoCH vs Market Structure Shift
A Market Structure Shift (MSS) is a specific type of Change of Character that includes additional signals suggesting a potential trend reversal. Unlike a straightforward CHoCH that typically indicates a trend is shifting but may also be a false break, an MSS can be seen as a higher confluence CHoCH. An MSS occurs after the market first makes a key movement contrary to the established trend—forming a lower high in an uptrend or a higher low in a downtrend—without plotting a higher high or lower low.
Following these preliminary signals, an MSS is confirmed when there is a decisive break through a significant swing point accompanied by a strong displacement (i.e. impulse) move, creating a CHoCH in the process. This sequence not only reflects that the prevailing trend has paused but also that a new trend in the opposite direction is establishing itself.
Due to these additional confirmations, an MSS can offer added confirmation for traders, indicating a stronger likelihood that a new, sustainable trend has begun. This makes the MSS particularly valuable for traders looking for more substantiated signals in their trading strategy.
The Bottom Line
The concept of a CHoCH is instrumental in navigating the complexities of SMC trading. By identifying these crucial market signals, traders may align their strategies to capitalise on market movements efficiently.
FAQs
What Is CHoCH in Trading?
In trading, CHoCH is a technical observation that signifies a change in the trend's character, where the price movement breaks from its established pattern of highs and lows, suggesting a potential reversal or substantial shift in the market's direction.
What Is CHoCH in SMC Trading?
In Smart Money Concept (SMC) trading, a Change of Character (CHoCH) refers to a clear shift in market behaviour that indicates a potential reversal of the prevailing trend. This concept is used by traders to detect early signs of a momentum shift that might lead to significant changes in price direction, enabling strategic adjustments to their trading positions.
What Is a CHoCH in the Market Structure?
A CHoCH in market structure is identified when there is an observable deviation from established price patterns — specifically when new highs or lows contradict the current trend. It signifies that the previous market sentiment is weakening, and a new opposite trend may be starting, prompting traders to reassess their strategies.
How Do You Identify a CHoCH?
Identifying a CHoCH involves monitoring significant swing highs and lows for breaks that are contrary to the existing trend. For instance, in an uptrend, a CHoCH would be indicated by a failure to reach a new high followed by a drop below the recent higher low, suggesting a shift to a bearish outlook.
What Is ChoCH vs BOS in Trading?
While both CHoCH and Break of Structure (BOS) are critical in assessing market dynamics, they serve different purposes. CHoCH indicates a potential trend reversal by highlighting a significant change in the price pattern. In contrast, a BOS indicates a continuation of the current trend by showing the price surpassing previous significant highs or lows, reinforcing the ongoing direction.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EURCHF: Bearish Continuation After Breakout 🇪🇺🇨🇭
EURCHF violated a significant horizontal support.
Retesting that, a bearish flag pattern was formed.
Its support violation provides a strong intraday confirmation.
The pair may drop lower at least to 0.9328
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Market next move
🔁 Disruption of the Current Analysis
1. False Breakout Scenario
The chart assumes a bullish move breaking resistance before a bearish reversal.
Disruption: This could be a false breakout, where the price appears to break above resistance but lacks strong volume and momentum. Traders get trapped long, and the price quickly reverses below resistance, invalidating the bullish leg entirely.
2. Stronger Uptrend Continuation
Despite calling for a bearish target, the overall trend appears strong with higher highs and higher lows.
Disruption: Instead of a retracement, EUR/USD could break through the resistance zone convincingly, possibly reaching 1.1750–1.1800, supported by:
Increasing volume
Bullish candles closing above resistance
No signs of bearish divergence on RSI/MACD (if added)
3. Fundamental Factors
The chart ignores macro data.
Disruption: If upcoming EU economic data is stronger than expected, or if US data disappoints, the euro could strengthen further.
Upcoming events with the euro and US flags suggest possible volatility.
4. Volume Contradiction
Recent bullish candles are supported by strong volume, suggesting accumulation.
Disruption: If smart money is accumulating positions, this would support further bullish continuation, not reversal.
CHFJPY: Massive bullish breakout taking place.CHFJPY is highly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 77.325, MACD = 1.496, ADX = 39.317), having crossed above its 1 year High (R1), staging a bullish breakout much like April 28th 2023. This is a direct outcome of the 1D Golden Cross, following also 1 year of accumulation. A 1W closing over the R1 validates a bullish extension to the 2.0 Fibonacci (TP = 194.000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Market next move Disruption of the Bullish USD/JPY Analysis
1. Weak Bullish Momentum
The current bullish attempt is showing small-bodied candles with low follow-through.
Disruption: This suggests a lack of conviction from buyers. If there’s no strong bounce soon, it could indicate distribution rather than accumulation.
2. Volume Imbalance
Notice the recent spike in bearish volume (red bars), especially during the last price drop.
Disruption: Volume is supporting the downtrend, not the rebound. This suggests sellers are still in control.
3. Lower High Structure
The price recently failed to form a higher high and continues forming lower highs and lower lows.
Disruption: This pattern is a classic sign of a continuing bearish trend, contradicting the bullish target.
4. Fundamental Headwinds
The U.S. economic icon (flag) suggests an upcoming high-impact event — likely NFP, GDP, or rate decision.
Disruption: If U.S. data is weak or if there's talk of the Fed pausing rate hikes, USD could weaken, pushing USD/JPY further below 144.000.
GBPUSDGBPUSD price is near the support zone 1.33917. If the price cannot break through 1.33917, it is expected that the price will have a chance to bounce back. Consider buying in the red zone.
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Market next target 🔁 Disruption of the Current Bullish Analysis
1. Resistance Rejection Likelihood
The chart suggests a breakout above resistance will turn the red box into support.
Disruption: The price is currently at a key resistance zone, and multiple rejections in this area previously suggest selling pressure.
We could see a double top formation or a false breakout trapping bulls.
Look for wicks or long upper shadows indicating weakness.
2. Volume Divergence
Recent bullish candles show declining or inconsistent volume.
Disruption: A strong bullish breakout requires rising volume. If volume doesn't confirm price action, this move may lack conviction and reverse sharply.
3. Overbought Conditions
After a strong uptrend, RSI or Stochastic indicators (not shown, but implied) could be entering overbought territory.
Disruption: This suggests limited upside and a potential for mean reversion or correction.
4. Bearish Candlestick Pattern Watch
Watch closely for a bearish engulfing, shooting star, or evening star at this resistance zone.
Disruption: Any bearish reversal pattern here would strongly contradict the bullish breakout thesis.
AUD/USD Shows Bullish Hints, Can Gains Be Sustained?Market Analysis: AUD/USD Shows Bullish Hints, Can Gains Be Sustained?
AUD/USD started a decent increase above the 0.6440 and 0.6465 levels.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar rebounded after forming a base above the 0.6370 level against the US Dollar.
- There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6470 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6370 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6400 resistance to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.
There was a close above the 0.6440 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6470. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6520 zone. A high was formed near 0.6519 and the pair recently started a consolidation phase.
The pair dipped and tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6372 swing low to the 0.6519 high.
On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6485 level. The next major support is near the 0.6465 zone. If there is a downside break below the 0.6465 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6445 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level.
Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6405. On the upside, the AUD/USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6520. The first major resistance might be 0.6550. An upside break above 0.6580 might send the pair further higher.
The next major resistance is near the 0.6600 level. Any more gains could clear the path for a move toward 0.6650.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
CAD/JPYSince my ascending triangle formation has violated its characteristics it is no longer valid. I took this opportunity to revisit this pair and start again. I still believe price is operating from the Double Bottom Formation so I'm still looking for price to go up. Here we have 4 touches on our Trendline & A Expanding Flat Formation (highlighted in blue letters). I have entered a position after the 4hr close but im still looking for a retrace for a better position.
Market next target 🚀 Bullish Disruption Analysis
1. Support Holds Above 35.80
The market may dip slightly but find strong support around the 35.90–36.00 zone.
Instead of continuing lower, buyers absorb the selling pressure, leading to a sharp bullish reversal.
2. Bullish Continuation After Consolidation
The current pullback could just be a healthy retracement following the strong recovery move from the previous dip.
This could form a bullish flag or ascending triangle, eventually breaking above 36.20 and pushing higher.
3. Volume Clue
If the pullback happens with declining red volume, while previous green candles had strong volume, it signals a temporary correction rather than a trend reversal.
Watch for a bullish engulfing candle backed by strong volume to confirm.
4. Macro Trigger / Fundamental Support
Any dovish signal from the Fed, rising inflation, or weakening USD could increase investor demand for silver, pushing prices back up.
A news-driven reversal could invalidate the bearish path quickly.
5. Bullish Price Target
If buyers take control, silver could retest and break above 36.30–36.40, aiming toward 36.60 or even 36.80.
GBPUSD Price Action Analysis | Sell Setup Below 1.36106In this GBPUSD market overview, we break down recent price action following yesterday’s strong bullish rally from the momentum low. The session was highly emotional across major forex pairs, which is typical when a major wave structure reaches its end. This often results from incomplete auctions on one side of the market, causing order flow imbalances that drive sharp price movements.
The key price level we're watching on GBPUSD is 1.36326. Price approached this zone with momentum, and the rejection at 1.36267 triggered a classic TCP (Trend Changing Pattern), followed by a single upside break, confirming exhaustion at the highs.
📉 Sell Setup:
According to the Waves of Success execution model, the best short entry is below 1.36106, in alignment with the prevailing bearish structure.
⚠️ Alternative Scenario:
We are not looking for long setups on GBPUSD at this time — our bias remains bearish unless significant structure changes occur.
This analysis combines wave structure, trend confirmation patterns, and institutional price levels for a professional, risk-managed approach.
🔑 Key Levels:
Resistance: 1.36326
Rejection High: 1.36267
Sell Trigger: 1.36106
Market next move Disruptive (Bearish) Scenarios:
1. False Breakout Risk
The recent bullish candles could be a bull trap.
Price may test the “support” trendline, fail to hold, and break downwards instead of continuing upward.
Watch for rejection near the target area or sharp sell-offs on high volume.
2. Overhead Resistance Zone
Price is approaching historical resistance near the $3,350–$3,355 area.
If it fails to close above this level on strong volume, it may reverse sharply.
3. Divergence Warning (Check RSI/MACD)
If you check oscillators like RSI or MACD, and they show bearish divergence (price makes higher highs, indicator makes lower highs), that could signal a weakening bullish momentum.
4. Volume Decline
The volume spikes on the recent bullish move, but volume drops afterward could indicate lack of buying interest to sustain the rally.
5. Fundamental Triggers
Any sudden macroeconomic news (e.g. strong USD data, interest rate hikes, geopolitical developments) could trigger a sharp selloff in gold, invalidating the bullish setup.
Market next move 🔻 Bearish Disruption Analysis
1. False Breakout / Bull Trap
The price might briefly break above the red resistance zone (highlighted), triggering buy orders.
However, instead of continuing higher, sellers step in aggressively, pushing the price back below resistance.
This would form a fakeout or bull trap, catching breakout buyers off-guard.
2. Volume Divergence
Look at the volume at the breakout: if the breakout occurs on declining or weak volume, it's a warning sign that the move lacks conviction.
The breakout may not sustain without strong volume backing it.
3. Lower High Formation
If the price fails to make a higher high above the previous peak (~3,340-3,345), and reverses downward, it indicates buying exhaustion.
4. MACRO/FUNDAMENTAL Trigger
Sudden news (e.g., strong USD data, interest rate hike comments from the Fed, or geopolitical tension easing) could cause a sharp sell-off in gold.
This would invalidate the bullish pattern entirely.
5. Bearish Price Target
If the disruption plays out, price could drop back to 3,300 or below, especially if support is weak.
A confirmed lower low below 3,310 would suggest a larger bearish structure
Market next target ⚠️ Disruption Analysis – BTC/USDT
1. False Bullish Narrative
The chart labels the structure as “Bullish”, yet recent price action shows:
A strong rejection near 106,000.
Followed by multiple red candles with increasing volume — a common sign of sell pressure re-entering the market.
The bullish label may be premature or misleading based on this momentum shift.
2. Bearish Structure Developing
The price is starting to form a lower high after the sharp drop.
The outlined path resembles a head-and-shoulders pattern in early development, often preceding a bearish breakdown.
The breakdown could lead directly to the "Target" zone or even below if momentum increases.
3. Volume Divergence
The volume spike during the pump was not sustained. Post-spike, volume is declining on green candles, suggesting buyers are exhausted.
Sellers are likely using liquidity at the top to exit positions, not initiate new longs.
4. Support Turned Resistance
The red boxes mark failed support zones which now may act as resistance.
If price attempts to retest these zones and fails, it would confirm bearish control and validate the downward path toward the target (104,400–104,000).
Market next target ⚠️ Disruption Analysis – BTC/USD
1. Questionable Bullish Bias
The chart labels the structure as "Bullish," but the current setup looks more like a potential distribution phase than a healthy continuation pattern.
The price is moving sideways with declining volume, suggesting buyers are losing strength.
2. Volume Discrepancy
Notice the spike in volume during the sharp move up, followed by flat candles and lower volume.
This is typical of a "pump and fade" structure, where large players exit after a rapid price move, leaving retail traders with poor entries.
3. Resistance Not Clearly Broken
Price failed to sustain above 105,800–106,000, indicating that the resistance zone remains valid.
The recent rejection candles near this level suggest sellers are active and overhead pressure is strong.
4. Descending Into Compression
The blue "descending" structure before the sideways move may signal a bearish flag or a pause before further downside—not necessarily a bullish sign.
5. False Reversal Warning
The bullish pattern drawn with zig-zags (implying consolidation before continuation) could actually be setting up a bull trap.
If price fakes a bounce and then breaks below 104,800, a sharper decline toward the 103,000 target could accelerate quickly.
Market next target ⚠️ Disruption Analysis – USD/JPY
1. Sideways/Flat Price Action
Price is consolidating in a tight range with small-bodied candles.
This indicates indecision and lack of momentum, not strength.
The upward arrows suggest bullish bias, but no strong signal confirms a breakout yet.
2. Bearish Momentum
The recent red candles dominate, showing a clear drop from above 146.000 earlier.
The overall trend (short-term) is down, and the support area could be tested again.
3. Decreasing Volume
Volume is fading out, especially the most recent bar (around 1.01K).
This suggests waning interest—any bullish breakout without volume support is likely to fail or reverse.
4. Resistance Area is Strong
The resistance zone near 145.800–146.000 is clearly tested before and held.
Without a significant catalyst, it's unlikely to break in the near term.
5. False Breakout Risk Above Target
The marked "target" just below resistance could trigger false bullish entries.
Market next move ⚠️ Disruption Analysis of the Chart
1. False Breakout Risk
The price is currently within an ascending channel, which is often seen as bullish.
However, the recent candlesticks show smaller bodies with wicks on top, indicating buyer exhaustion.
A false breakout above the upper trendline or support around 1.3632 could trap buyers before a sharp reversal.
2. Low Volume Confirmation
Volume peaked earlier but has significantly decreased in the last few candles.
Weak volume during a price rise signals a lack of conviction, increasing the likelihood of a pullback.
3. Resistance Flip Not Confirmed
The level around 1.3600 is marked as resistance-turned-support, but there is no strong retest confirmation yet.
If price revisits this zone and fails to bounce, this support could break, leading to a downside reversal.
4. Divergence Watch
While not visible in this static image, if you overlay RSI or MACD, there could be signs of bearish divergence (price making higher highs while momentum indicators make lower highs).
This is often a leading indicator of trend weakening.
Market next target 🔁 Disrupted Analysis (Bullish Scenario Instead of Bearish)
1. Price in an Upward Channel:
The price remains within a clear ascending channel, respecting both upper and lower bounds.
The bearish arrow prematurely predicts a breakdown while no support break has occurred.
2. Strong Bullish Momentum:
Price is making higher highs and higher lows, a textbook bullish structure.
The recent dip respected the lower trendline and was followed by strong green candles.
3. Volume Confirmation:
Notice the increasing bullish volume on the recent push higher.
That suggests buyers are still in control, contradicting the bearish prediction.
4. Invalidation of Bearish Breakdown:
Until the lower blue trendline is clearly broken with volume, the bearish target is speculative.
Support is holding at 1.1610–1.1600 zone, which may become a launchpad for further gains.
EURUSD: Can it reach 1.1900?EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.234, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 20.419) and is going for a 3 week high. This is technically a long term bullish wave (since the January 13th 2025 low) on the 3 year Channel Up. We anticipate that this wave will go for the pattern's high by the end of the year, and being limited by the 7 year LH trendline, we expect to aim for at least 1.1900. The 1W RSI has started to post a sequence that resembles the last 3 major ones.
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Market next move 🔁 Disrupted Analysis (Bullish Scenario Instead of Bearish)
1. Support Holding Firm:
The analysis assumes the price will drop after failing resistance, but the current price action is showing higher lows, suggesting accumulation.
The support area has been tested multiple times, showing strength.
2. Volume Analysis Contradiction:
Recent green volume bars indicate buying interest at lower levels.
No significant volume spike on the last downward leg, suggesting lack of strong selling pressure.
3. Potential Inverted Head and Shoulders:
The current formation could be the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup.
If confirmed, this could lead to a breakout above the resistance area, not a drop.
4. Trendline Breakout Watch:
There's a potential bullish breakout of the descending trendline.
A break above 3,320 USD could invalidate the bearish thesis and suggest a target near 3,340–3,350 USD.
Market next target 🔁 Disrupted Analysis (Bullish Scenario Instead of Bearish)
1. Support Holding Firm:
The analysis assumes the price will drop after failing resistance, but the current price action is showing higher lows, suggesting accumulation.
The support area has been tested multiple times, showing strength.
2. Volume Analysis Contradiction:
Recent green volume bars indicate buying interest at lower levels.
No significant volume spike on the last downward leg, suggesting lack of strong selling pressure.
3. Potential Inverted Head and Shoulders:
The current formation could be the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup.
If confirmed, this could lead to a breakout above the resistance area, not a drop.
4. Trendline Breakout Watch:
There's a potential bullish breakout of the descending trendline.
A break above 3,320 USD could invalidate the bearish thesis and suggest a target near 3,340–3,350 USD.