Trade idea - USDHUF Long4H
Corrective approach towards entry zone .
-68 Fibonacci completion aligning with entry zone.
Ascending trend line holding up the price.
= Buy limit.
DXY makes sense for a Long as well.
1% risk.
Forextrading
GBPUSD ( UNDER BEARISH PRESSURE ) ( 4H )GBPUSD
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , the price is under bearish pressure , until trading below turning level at 1.293 .
Turning Level: The price is currently trading below this level around 1.293 . As long as it remains stable and stays below this level, a drop toward the support level (1) is likely . However, if the price breaks above this level and a 4-hour candle closes above it, an upward move toward the resistance level (1) can be expected.
Resistance Level (1): around 1.298 , The price is currently below turning level . To reach this level, the price needs to break and close a four-hour candle above the turning level at 1.293. If the price reaches 1.298 , and stabilizes above it, it will likely attempt to reach resistance level (2) .
Resistance Level (2): When the price breaks through Resistance Level (1) and closes a 4-hour candle above it, this suggests it could reach around 1.303 . To confirm an uptrend, the price needs to reach this level before moving on to Resistance Level (3) at 1.309 .
Support Level (1): As long as the price remains below the turning level of 1.293, it suggests a drop towards 1.283 . If the price reaches this level and stabilizing below it, it will likely attempt to reach Support Level (2).
Support Level (2): When the price breaks through support level(1)and closes a 4-hour candle below it, this suggests it could reach around 1.275 . To confirm a downtrend , the price needs to reach this level before decline on to support Level (3 )at 1.268 .
Channel Trend: the trading rate within the ascending channel.
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 1.298 ,1.303 ,1.309 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 1.283 , 1.275 , 1.268 .
USDJPY ( UNDER UPWARD PRESSURE ) ( 4H )USDJPY
HELLO TRADERS
in the last week the price of OANDA:USDJPY starting to rising , currently the price it will be trying to breakout a channel , in the event of this occurrence , price starts to up trading .
Tendency , the price is under bullish pressure , until trading above turning level .
Downward Zone : for a downward movement to occur , the price needs to break through the turning level at 145.994 , leading to decline that could reach the support level (1) 144.322 , if the price breaks and stabilizing below this level it may attempt to reach support zone between 142.223 and 139.804 .
Upward Zone: as long as the price remain above the turning level at 145.994 , it may rising towards the resistance level (1) at 150.900 , if the price breaks this level with a 4h candle closing above it , it suggest further upward towards the resistance zone between 154.969 and 158.169 .
CORRECTIVE : currently price it will be attempt to retest to reach a turning level at 145.994 before rising .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 150.900 ,154.969 , 158.169 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 144.322, 142.223 , 139.804 .
XAU surges despite positive news for DXYThe drop in jobless claims suggests the US economy is recovering well, which further strengthens the case for a lower-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
The precious metal, which has been under pressure from the sell-off earlier this week, was further weighed down by the latest inflation report, which dampened market optimism about a September monetary policy pivot.
The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in July, compared to a 2.9% increase in the same month last year, according to the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Tai Wong, an independent metals trader in New York, said that a September rate cut was a certainty. However, the latest data disappointed the market by reinforcing the case for a 25 basis point cut, instead of the expected 50 basis points.
EUR/USD Approaches Key Supply Area Amid U.S. CPI DataThe EUR/USD is nearing a significant supply area around 1.10500, with the pair currently showing signs of being overbought. The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report highlights that retail traders are largely bullish on the pair, adding to the potential for a correction. The focus now shifts to the upcoming release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is likely to play a crucial role in determining the pair's next move.
Market expectations suggest that on a yearly basis, the CPI will rise by 2.9%, slightly down from the 3% recorded in June. The core CPI, which excludes the most volatile items, is anticipated to increase by 3.2% annually. On a monthly basis, both the headline CPI and core CPI are expected to rise by 0.2%.
Should the monthly core CPI, a key indicator that removes base effects and volatile prices, exceed expectations, it could trigger an immediate recovery in the U.S. Dollar (USD). This would likely weigh on the EUR/USD, leading to a potential downward movement from the supply zone around 1.10500. Conversely, if the core CPI underperforms, failing to meet market estimates, the pair might push higher, potentially breaching the initial supply area.
If EUR/USD manages to surpass the 1.10500 level, the next significant resistance lies around 1.12000. This area could act as another barrier for the Euro, where a rebound might occur. However, the current analysis suggests that a reversal at the first supply area is more probable, especially if the USD regains strength following the CPI data release.
In conclusion, the upcoming CPI figures will be pivotal in shaping the EUR/USD's trajectory. Traders should closely monitor the data, as it could either reinforce the overbought conditions and lead to a correction, or propel the pair higher if the USD weakens further.
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XAU short term trading strategyThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics released a positive Consumer Price Index (CPI). Accordingly, US inflation increased by 0.2% in July, as expected by economists, but year-on-year inflation increased by only 2.9%, lower than the expected 3%. Lower inflation will give the US Federal Reserve (Fed) more grounds to cut interest rates soon. The USD will fall when the Fed reverses monetary policy. Normally, gold moves inversely to the USD
Forex Trade Management Strategies. Techniques For Beginners
I am going to reveal 4 trade management strategies that will change the way you trade forex.
These simple techniques are aimed to minimize your losses and maximize your gains.
1. Trading Without Take Profit
Once you spotted the market that is trading in a strong bullish or bearish trend, there is one tip that will help you to benefit from the entire movement.
If the market is bullish, and you buy it expecting a bullish trend continuation, consider trading WITHOUT take profit.
Take a look at USDJPY on an hourly time frame.
The market is trading in the bullish trend, and we see a strong trend-following signal - a bullish breakout of a current resistance .
After the violation, the price went up by more than 1000 pips, and of course, trading with a fixed target, most likely you would close the trade too soon.
The same trade management strategy can be applied in a bearish trend.
Above is a price action on GBPUSD. The pair is very bearish, and we see a strong bearish signal on an hourly time frame.
The market dropped by more than 1000 pips then, and of course, trading with the fixed take profit, you would miss that bearish rally, closing the trade earlier.
Even though the trends do not last forever, the markets may easily fall or grow sharply for weeks or even months and this technique will help you to cash out from the entire movement.
2. Stop Loss to Breakeven
Once you open a trading position and the market starts going in the desired direction, there is a simple strategy that will help you to protect your position from a sudden reversal.
Above is the real trade that we took with my students in my trading academy. We spotted a very bearish pattern on USDCAD and opened short position.
Initially we were right, and the market was going to our target.
BUT because of the surprising release of negative Canadian fundamental news, the market reversed suddenly, not being able to reach the target.
And that could be a losing trade BUT we managed to save our money.
What we did: we moved our stop loss to entry level, or to breakeven, before the release of the fundamentals.
Trade was closed on entry level and we lost 0 dollars.
Moving stop loss to entry saved me tens of thousands of dollars.
It is one of the simplest trade management techniques that you must apply.
3. Trailing Stop Loss
Once you managed to catch a strong movement, do not keep your stop loss intact.
As we already discussed, your first step will be to protect your position and move your stop loss to entry.
But what you can do next, you can apply trailing stop loss.
Above is a trend-following trade that we took with my students on GBPCHF.
Once the market started moving in the desired direction, we moved stop loss to breakeven.
As the market kept setting new highs, we trailed the stop loss and set it below the supports based on new higher lows.
We kept trailing the stop loss till the market reached the target.
Application of a trailing stop will help you to protect your profits, in case of a sudden change in the market sentiment and reversal.
4. Partial Closing
The last tip can be applied for trading and investing.
Remember that once you correctly predicted a rally, you can book partial profits, once the price is approaching some important historical levels or ahead of important fundamental releases.
Imagine that you bought 1 Bitcoin for 17000$.
Once a bullish market started, you can sell the portion of your BTC, once the price reaches significant key levels.
For example, 0.2 BTC on each level.
With such trade management technique, you will book profits while remaining in your position.
Even though, these techniques are very simple, only the few apply them. Try these trade management strategies and increase your gains and avoid losses!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
USDCAD still look bearishUpdated from 8/13 analysis
This morning news release had a negative impact on USD, I'm looking for UCAD to continue pushing down.
EURUSD ( TRADING INSIDE DESCENDING CHANNEL ) ( UNDER CPI ) (4H)EURUSD
HELLO TRADERS
currently of the price trading inside descending channel and stabilizing below turning level , today at 3.30 we have a CPI news that has a huge impact on market movements .
Tendency , the price is under bearish pressure , until trading below turning level around 1.101 .
Upward Zone : for an upward movement to occur , the price needs to break through the turning level at 1.101 , leading to rise that could reach the resistance level (1) at 1.105 , if the price breaks and stabilizing above this level it may attempt to reach resistance zone between 1.109 and 1.113 .
Downward Zone: as long as the price remain below the turning level at 1.094 , it may drop towards the support level (1) at 1.094 , if the price breaks this level with a 4h candle closing below it , it suggest further decline towards the support zone between 1.088 and 1.084 .
CORRECTIVE : currently price it will be attempt to retest to reach a turning level at 1.101before dropping .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 1.105 ,1.109 , 1.113 .
SUPPORT LEVEL : 1.094 , 1.088 , 1.084 .
AUD/USD Reversal: Bullish MomentumThe AUD/USD pair has shown signs of recovery after dipping to the 0.63500 level, with the price currently rising around 0.6595. This rebound is partly fueled by the US Dollar (USD) facing challenges due to growing expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. However, the pressure on the USD might ease as the likelihood of a 50-basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting diminishes.
From our perspective, we anticipate that the AUD/USD will continue its upward trajectory, potentially reaching the Supply zone around 0.6700, with a possibility of extending higher to 0.6800. This target area is crucial for evaluating the next strategic move. The current market sentiment indicates that Smart Money is positioning itself long, while Retail traders are predominantly short. This imbalance suggests a potential increase in the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the pair gains momentum.
Given these factors, our focus is on monitoring the price action as it approaches these key levels. We expect that once the price reaches the 0.6700 to 0.6800 range, a potential setup may emerge, providing an opportunity to capitalize on the AUD's strengthening against the USD. This analysis aligns with the broader market dynamics, indicating that the AUD is poised for further gains in the near term.
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XAGUSDXAGUSD price is currently near the support zone of 27.26. If the price can still stand above 27.26, it is expected that the price will have a chance to rebound.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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*Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management
GBP/AUD Short, NZD/JPY Short, USD/CAD Short and EUR/CAD ShortGBP/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If area of value tapped into, risk entry after a 1 hour rejection from it.
NZD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
USD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
#XAUUSD/H4 CPI today determines the long-term trend of GOLD.Analysis of the European - US session on August 13, 2024:
On the second day, we have seen a strong increase in all sessions. Gold has approached the old peak area.
Today's CPI news will determine whether a triple peak pattern will form and whether there will be a deep correction. A reversal creating a peak has appeared on H4. The trading trend today is mainly BUY. But caution is required in sensitive price zones like this.
Price areas to watch: Zones 2430-2434; 2444-2447 and 2481-2486.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 2430-2433
SL 2427
TP 2440 - 2450 - 2470.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 2444 - 2447
SL 2441
TP 2452 - 2460 -2470.
Plan 3: SELL XAUUSD zone 2483 - 2486
SL 2492
TP 2475 - 2450 - 2430 - open.
XAU continues to increase from last weekend's sessionAt the beginning of the trading session in the US market, the world gold price continued to increase from the session at the end of last week. The US unemployment benefit application report released in the middle of last week brought optimism to the stock and gold markets.
After a quiet week, the world gold market is about to receive a series of important information that can affect the direction of the precious metal in the short term. Specifically, the producer price index, consumer price index, retail sales in July, weekly unemployment benefit applications, housing starts and building permits in the US in July, ...
Marc Chandler, General Director of Bannockburn Global Forex, said that the information that the market is most looking forward to is the July consumer price index report, which is likely to remain unchanged compared to the same period last year. This helps the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in September.
USD/CAD: Awaiting Bearish Continuation Before Potential ReversalThe USD/CAD pair has shown resilience even as the USD/DXY continues to strengthen. However, it seems to be taking its time to find a robust Support/Demand zone before embarking on a corrective phase. Our analysis, which integrates Seasonality trends, the COT report, and our proven Supply and Demand strategy, points towards an impending continuation of the bearish momentum.
Currently, we are closely monitoring the 1.36480 level—a key area where price action is likely to encounter significant demand. It is at this juncture that we expect to see a pattern indicating a potential reversal. Should such a pattern materialize, it would provide a strong signal for entering a long position at the market. This strategic approach allows us to capitalize on the anticipated recovery following the completion of the bearish cycle, positioning ourselves for a favorable entry as the price gears up for a bullish turn.
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USD/JPY:Liquidity Grab at 142.000 Signals Long Setup OpportunityThe USD/JPY pair recently experienced a liquidity grab around the 142.000 area, which coincides with a key demand zone. This convergence of factors presents a compelling opportunity for a long setup, especially when analyzed in conjunction with the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, seasonality trends, and our supply and demand analysis.
The liquidity grab at 142.000 is a critical event, as it often indicates a shift in market sentiment. In this case, the price dipped into a demand area where buying pressure is expected to intensify. This zone has historically acted as a strong support level, making it a prime candidate for a reversal and an upward move.
Our analysis of the COT report further strengthens the case for a long position. The data suggests that large traders and institutional investors are increasingly positioning themselves on the bullish side of USD/JPY, indicating confidence in a potential upward trajectory. This shift in market sentiment aligns with the technical indicators we've identified in the 142.000 demand area.
Seasonality trends also play a supportive role in this setup. Historically, certain periods have favored the US dollar against the Japanese yen, leading to upward movements in the pair. This seasonal pattern, combined with the current technical and sentiment-based factors, creates a favorable environment for a long position.
Given the liquidity grab at 142.000, the confluence with a demand zone, and the positive signals from the COT report and seasonality analysis, we are looking to enter a long setup in USD/JPY. Traders should consider this opportunity, as the potential for a significant upward move appears strong.
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NZD/JPY: A Potential Reversal in the MakingThe NZD/JPY pair has recently caught the attention of traders following a notable drop to the 83.000 level. This move downwards was met with significant demand pressure, setting the stage for what appears to be a potential reversal. Starting from last Wednesday, the pair has shown signs of recovery, indicating that a bullish trend might be on the horizon.
From a Supply and Demand perspective, the dip to 83.000 acted as a critical demand zone, where buyers stepped in to support the price. This zone, which had previously been tested, held firm, suggesting that there is substantial interest in the NZD/JPY at these levels. As the pair began to rise from this support, it confirmed that the demand pressure was strong enough to halt the decline and possibly reverse the trend.
Adding to the bullish sentiment is the analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The latest data indicates a shift in positioning among large speculators and commercial traders. These market participants, who often have access to more comprehensive market data and insights, appear to be positioning themselves for a potential upward move in the NZD/JPY. This shift in sentiment among key market players further reinforces the likelihood of a reversal.
Seasonality also plays a role in our bullish outlook. Historically, certain times of the year have been more favorable for the NZD/JPY pair, with increased demand for the New Zealand dollar during specific seasons. This seasonal trend, combined with the current technical setup and COT data, provides a strong case for considering a long position in the pair.
In conclusion, the recent drop in NZD/JPY to the 83.000 level has sparked a potential reversal, supported by strong demand, favorable COT positioning, and seasonal factors. Traders looking to capitalize on this opportunity should consider a long position, keeping a close eye on further developments in the market.
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GBP/AUD Short, USD/CAD Short, NZD/USD Long and GBP/CHF ShortGBP/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If area of value tapped into, risk entry after a 1 hour rejection from it.
USD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
NZD/USD Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse up above area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBP/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
The next target for gold price is the 2,580-2,585 zone.Gold prices are expected to remain stable this week, with 60% calling for a sideways trend. The remaining 40% see gold prices rising. In an online Main Street poll, 62% of retailers see gold rising, while 21% see gold falling.
senior market strategist at Forex, sees gold prices rising. Gold investors are still in control. After the gold price fell, buying orders immediately increased. The market is ready to wait for an opportunity for gold to break above $2,500 an ounce.
Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said the gold market is changing so quickly that it is difficult for traders to predict the direction.
Lusk expects gold prices to rise higher by the end of the year
Investors hope gold will increase in the coming time.Most industry experts predict that gold prices will remain flat. Most retail traders expect gold prices to rise.
The market will be paying attention to some notable economic news this week, including the July PPI, July CPI, July retail sales and weekly jobless claims, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment survey for August, etc.
The market is currently focused entirely on the prospect of a September interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Gold investors will pay close attention to the Fed's speaker list this week.
AUD/USD Rebounds from Yearly Low, Bullish SetupThe AUD/USD pair has experienced a significant rebound after hitting its yearly low around the 0.63500 level. This area, which briefly saw the price dip below support, appeared to be a liquidity grab, followed by a strong reversal in direction. This move indicates a potential shift in market sentiment, with the pair possibly gearing up for a bullish trend.
Given this price action, we are now closely monitoring the AUD/USD for a long setup. The rebound from this critical support level suggests that buyers are stepping in, and we anticipate a continuation of this upward momentum in the near term. The current technical landscape, combined with the broader market context, supports the possibility of a sustained bullish movement, making this an attractive opportunity for a long position.
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EURNZD Double Top Formation Signals Potential Short OpportunityThe EURNZD currency pair has recently formed a classic double top pattern at a significant supply area, signaling a potential reversal. This double top aligns with broader Forex seasonality trends, reinforcing the likelihood of a downward movement. The confluence of these technical and seasonal factors suggests that the current levels may offer an attractive entry point for short positions.
Traders observing this setup on a daily timeframe may find it an opportune moment to capitalize on the anticipated bearish trend. As the pair tests the supply zone for the second time, we are closely monitoring the price action for signs of a sustained reversal. With the added weight of seasonal analysis, this short position aligns with a broader strategy of trading in harmony with established market cycles.
We are considering a short position on EURNZD, targeting potential downside as the pair responds to the resistance offered by the supply area and the natural seasonality patterns in the Forex market.
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Xauusd sell Gold price holds onto gains above $2,400 on Fed’s sizable rate-cut prospects
Gold price falls slightly but remains broadly firm on multiple tailwinds on Friday. Investors are divided over the size of Fed rate cuts in September. Fed officials acknowledge the softening of inflation and slowing labor demand.Gold price trades in a channel formation on a daily timeframe, which is slightly rising but broadly exhibited a sideways performance for more than three months. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $2,370 continues to provide support to the Gold price bulls.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates within the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.
A fresh upside would appear if the Gold price breaks above its all-time high of $2,483.75, which will send it into unchartered territory.
On the downside, the upward-sloping trendline at $2,225, plotted from the October 6 low near $1,810.50, will be a major support in the longer term.Gold has been considered a highly valuable commodity for millennia and the gold price is widely followed in financial markets around the world. Mostly quoted in US Dollars (XAU/USD), gold price tends to increase as stocks and bonds decline. The metal holds its value well, making it a reliable safe-haven. It's traded constantly based on the intra-day spot rate. Improve your technical analysis of live gold prices with the real-time XAU/USD chart, and read our latest gold news, expert analysis and gold price forecast.
