GOLD : Gold is increasingly unpredictableXAU/USD has been on the rise since late June, reaching a peak of $2,390 on Friday, representing a 4% gain. This is mainly due to the USD falling by 1%, as gold prices are often more volatile than the USD.
Weak jobs data pushed gold prices up on Friday, weakening the dollar and bringing the timing of an interest rate cut closer. However, it is worth noting that gold decreased by 0.8% immediately after the release of the report.
The market's subsequent reaction was of the "good for evil" variety: labor market weakness increased expectations of an early interest rate cut, which boosted risk appetite. However, this is a very difficult trend to sustain, because not all negative factors in the macroeconomy reduce inflation.
On the contrary, we see wage growth (4.1% over the same period last year) is still higher than inflation (3.3%). At the same time, hiring figures from previous months were revised downward, and the unemployment rate reached a 31-month high.
However, it is likely that gold prices will continue to be under pressure. The 50-day MA at $2,340 is considered the first signal mark. If this zone is broken without resistance from buyers, XAU/USD could quickly retreat to the $2,300 zone, a key level to determine the trend in the coming months. A drop below this level would be considered a break in the uptrend since October, when the Fed first signaled its readiness to cut interest rates.
