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The Loonie's Fate: Can CAD Hold Against USD?The Canadian dollar (CAD) has been losing ground against the U.S. dollar (USD) for years, and this chart suggests that weakness could continue. Since 2015, every time CAD has tried to strengthen, it has failed to break below 1.20, showing a long-term downward trend. USD/CAD at 1.47: A Critical Turning Point Right now, the exchange rate is sitting at 1.4527, just below a key resistance level (1.47). Historically, this level has acted as a ceiling where CAD has struggled to hold its value. Two Possible Outcomes: 1. If CAD Holds Below 1.47 → Potential for Stabilization A rejection at 1.47 would mean CAD could regain some strength, at least in the short term. This could happen if the Bank of Canada holds rates steady while the U.S. Federal Reserve signals rate cuts. If USD weakens, CAD could stabilize around 1.39 or lower. 2. If USD/CAD Breaks Above 1.47 → CAD Could Sink Further A breakout above 1.47 would mean further CAD weakness, and we could see 1.60 or even 1.80 in the long run. This would be bad news for Canadian consumers, as inflation would likely surge. The Bank of Canada might be forced to act aggressively, keeping interest rates high for longer to stabilize the loonie. The Big Picture: Could We See 1.80? The chart suggests that if USD/CAD breaks out above 1.47, the next long-term move could reach 1.80, which would mean an additional 21% devaluation of CAD against USD. What That Would Mean for Canadians: More Expensive Imports: A weaker CAD means higher costs for goods priced in USD—electronics, vehicles, food, and even vacations in the U.S. Higher Inflation Risk: Imported goods would become more expensive, keeping inflation high and making it harder for the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut rates. Potential Rate Hikes: If CAD weakens too much, the BoC may need to raise interest rates again to stabilize the currency, which could keep borrowing costs high. What Canadians Should Watch Oil Prices: Canada is a commodity-based economy, and higher oil prices typically strengthen CAD (since Canada is a major oil exporter). If oil prices rise, CAD could get some strength back, slowing the decline. Bank of Canada vs. U.S. Federal Reserve Policy: If the Bank of Canada keeps rates high while the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts rates, CAD could strengthen. But if the BoC cuts rates too early, CAD could fall further. Global Market Sentiment: In a risk-off environment, investors flock to USD for safety, weakening CAD. If risk appetite returns, CAD could stabilize. What Canadians Can Do to Prepare If USD/CAD Breaks 1.47 and Moves Higher: Hedge Against a Weak CAD: Consider holding some USD-denominated assets (U.S. stocks, USD savings). Lock in Loan Rates Now: A weakening CAD could keep rates high longer—fixed-rate mortgages may offer stability. Invest in Inflation-Protected Assets: If CAD weakens, commodities, energy stocks, and foreign investments could help hedge against inflation. Buy USD for Future U.S. Expenses: If you travel to the U.S. frequently, it might make sense to buy USD now before CAD weakens further. If USD/CAD Gets Rejected at 1.47 and CAD Recovers: Monitor U.S. Rate Cuts: If the Fed cuts rates, USD may weaken, giving CAD a chance to rebound. Be Ready for Short-Term Relief, But Plan for Long-Term Weakness: Even if CAD strengthens in the short term, the long-term trend still suggests CAD is vulnerable. Final Thoughts: The Loonie’s Fate Rests on 1.47 Right now, CAD is at a make-or-break level. If 1.47 holds, CAD may see short-term strength. If 1.47 breaks, CAD could face a significant decline, making life more expensive for Canadians. With inflation, interest rates, and oil prices all playing a role, this is a crucial time to pay attention to macroeconomic trends, as the next move in USD/CAD will impact Canadians' cost of living, mortgages, and investments. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
by TechTrendLabs
AUDJPY: 2 month range calls for a reboundAUDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.920, MACD = -0.220, ADX = 20.692) as it is trading inside a Rectangle pattern. The price hit the pattern's bottom yesterday and today is rebounding towards the 4H MA50, already hitting the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. Such rebounds have always reached the 0.786 Fib at least, so with the 4H RSI also rebounding perfectly from the oversold area, we expect to test the 0.786 Fib again (TP = 98.385). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
1
GBP/USD Long, EUR/USD Long and GBP/AUD LongGBP/USD Long Minimum entry requirements: • Corrective tap into area of value. • 4H risk entry or 1H risk entry after 2 x 1H low tests. Minimum entry requirements: • Tap into area of value. • 1H impulse up above area of value. • If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it. EUR/USD Long Minimum entry requirements: • Break below area of value. • 1H impulse up above area of interest. • If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it. GBP/AUD Long Minimum entry requirements: • Break below area of value. • 1H impulse up above area of value. • If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
Long
by StewySongs
EUR/GBP Collapses Bearish Breakout SetupThis chart shows a short trade setup based on the price action and trendline analysis of the EUR/GBP pair on the 2-hour timeframe. The price was moving within an ascending channel, defined by two parallel white trendlines. The ascending channel suggests a temporary bullish trend where the price consistently made higher highs and higher lows. At the top of the channel, the price experienced resistance, which led to a breakdown below the lower trendline. This breakdown signals a potential reversal of the bullish trend and marks the start of bearish momentum. The break of the lower trendline is the key signal for the short entry. The breakdown also aligns with a shift in market sentiment, as the price failed to maintain its position within the channel. The sell-off that followed confirmed the validity of the breakout. The price is now trending downward toward a lower level, which could act as a support area. The key levels to watch include the recent breakout point, which could act as resistance if the price attempts a pullback, and the lower support level near 0.82856. This support level aligns with a previous price range and serves as the potential target for the short position. The descending movement following the channel break suggests strong selling pressure. To confirm the continuation of the bearish trend, the price should not re-enter the ascending channel. A retest of the lower trendline could provide further confirmation of the breakdown, while a failure to hold below it could invalidate the bearish bias. This setup reflects a clear trend reversal strategy focusing on trading the breakout of an ascending pattern.
Short
by wolfchemist
1
USDCAD: Channel Up negated. Bearish reversal started.USDCAD is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.879, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 32.215) as it is still being supported by the 1D MA50, but since January 20th, it crossed under the 4 month Channel Up and today it retested it from below and is so far failing. This is an early signal that the medium term trend has shifted to bearish. We are short, targeting the 1D MA200 near the S2 level (TP = 1.39650). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
EUR/USD LongEUR/USD Long Minimum entry requirements: • 1H impulse up above area of interest. • If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
Long
by StewySongs
GBPJPY: Imminent bullish breakout. Long term target 208.000GBPJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.276, MACD = -0.320, ADX = 25.216) as it is consolidating around its 1D MA50. The Channel Up since the August 5th 2024 Low as well as its RSI structure, draws comparisons with the 2023 Channel Up, which after one last pullback, it rebounded to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension and beyond. We're turning bullish (TP = 208.000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
Gold will buy that's confirm read the caption The dismal mood somehow eased ahead of Wall Street’s opening, with the three major indexes now trading in positive territory. Gains however, are modest as investors gear up for the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement. The Fed is undergoing a two-day meeting, which will conclude on Wednesday. Officials will announce their decision afterwards, with officials widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold.  Whereas the accompanying statement and Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech are dovish or hawkish and will decide the market’s direction
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mrsam36
EUR/USD Long, GBP/USD Short and EUR/GBP ShortEUR/USD Long Minimum entry requirements: • 1H impulse up above area of interest. • If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it. GBP/USD Short Minimum entry requirements: • 1H impulse down below area of interest. • If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it. • If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it. EUR/GBP Short Minimum entry requirements: • If structured 3 touch 1H continuation forms, 1H risk entry within it.
by StewySongs
XAUUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation: Hello, everyone! I hope you're all doing well. Let me share my personal view on XAU/USD (Gold) with you. Based on the current market structure, Gold has broken below its key level at 2735.960, indicating potential further downside movement. However, before the decline continues, I anticipate a pullback upward to the 2747.420 level. From this area, I will look for selling opportunities targeting the zones between 2707.905 and 2703.135 . 📉 Expectation: A pullback to 2747.420 followed by a potential sell-off towards 2707.905–2703.135 . 💡 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 2747.420 Support: 2735.960 (broken), 2707.905–2703.135 💬 What’s your view on the XAU/USD (Gold) this week? Share your thoughts in the comments below! Trade safe
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PouyanTradeFX
GBPUSD: Channel Down forming a top on the 1D MA50.GBPUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.465, MACD = -0.003, ADX = 25.916) hitting today its 1D MA50 for the first time after October 9th 2024. By doing so, it reached the top of the 4 month Channel Down and is technically the best level to short. Attention is required as the 1D RSI broke over its 4 month Rectangle, so it may be an early bullish breakout signal, but until we close a candle over the 1D MA50, the trend is bearish and this is the most cost-effective short. The last 0.5 Fibonacci rejection (December 6th) targeted the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. This time we will aim a little higher than that (TP = 1.1950) to match the % decline of the previous bearish waves. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope