Gold price increased sharply to set a recordThe August CPI report showed that core US inflation remains high, which is unlikely to prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
Inflation has not fallen as expected, and if the Fed cuts by 50 basis points next week, it will mean that the US Central Bank is surrendering to inflation.
Most economists participating in the survey believe that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Only 9 out of 101 economists predict the Fed will cut by 50 basis points.
Forextrading
“Nasdaq Continues Its Uptrend”Expectations that the Fed will implement a 25 basis point interest rate cut next week are being maintained. This situation is perceived positively for the indices. By the end of the year, a total rate cut of 100 basis points is almost certain. The CPI and PPI data suggest that the Fed might not need to cut rates as aggressively as the market had anticipated.
Technically, if the resistance level at 19,500 is permanently surpassed, the rise could gain momentum towards the 19,700 and then 19,950 resistance levels. On the downside, if the index falls below the 19,100 level, a pullback towards the support levels at 18,800 and then 18,450 might be seen.
“The gold price is going up”In the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced a slight slowdown in August. Weekly unemployment benefit claims rose by 2,000, reaching 230,000. Following this data release, the decline in the dollar deepened. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 3.62%. As a result, gold prices tested the 2570 resistance level.
From a technical perspective, if prices remain consistently above the 2570 resistance level, an increase to 2600 and then to 2650 could occur. On the downside, if the price falls below the 2570 support level, a pullback could extend to 2535 and then to 2482.
AUDNZD Potential drop from the ResistanceAUDNZD has rebounded from the channel border after forming a consolidation zone. The market remains bearish on both the daily and 4H timeframes. After recently hitting the support level, the price has moved sideways, suggesting it may continue to fluctuate between the established range's upper and lower boundaries. Considering that the price has rebounded from this level twice before, there is a strong possibility it may do so again. However, if the market breaks through the trendline and the key support at 1.08500, it could signal a continuation of bearish momentum and lead to even lower levels. The target is the support level at 1.08200
USDCHFUSDCHF price is in a correction phase. The price is currently near the support zone of 0.84753. If the price cannot break through, it is expected that in the short term, there is a chance that the price will rebound. Consider buying in the red zone.
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UK100 (FTSE100) Technical AnalysisWhen the UK100 daily chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue on the trend line. As long as the index price cannot pass the 8412 level, it is evaluated that in price movements below the 8305 level, it can break the 8165 level and retreat to the 8038 level.
COTTON Technical AnalysisWhen the COTTON 4-hour chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue on the trend line. As long as the COTTON price does not break down the 6853 level, it is evaluated that the price movements above the 7002 level can exceed the 7219 level and target the 7587 level.
EURUSDHello Traders!
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
This currency pair is currently positioned below a key resistance zone. It is expected that after a brief upward correction, it will likely decline towards the specified level. Additionally, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting, scheduled to take place in the coming hours, could serve as a key catalyst for this pair's movement.
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XAU spikes after newsPreviously, gold was under pressure from expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) at its policy meeting next week, which is cooling down after the August consumer price index report increased.
According to the latest report, the US CPI in August increased by 2.5% compared to the same period, lower than the forecast of 2.6% and down significantly from 2.9% in July.
According to experts, the August CPI report shows that the US core inflation is still high, not enough to make the Fed decide to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
USDJPY: Will the Fed's rate cut really hurt the USD/JPY pair?The potential impact of a US Federal Reserve rate cut on USD/JPY is a key issue for investors and currency strategists, especially as we approach a potential Fed policy change in 2024.
With the divergent monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), market participants are divided on whether a Fed rate cut will lead to a weaker USD/JPY.
"DAX Index Rises Ahead of ECB Meeting"In the U.S., the consumer price index increased by 0.2% in August, while the annual rise was 2.5%, aligning with forecasts. Following the drop in inflation, the likelihood of the Fed implementing a 25 basis point rate cut next week has risen to 85%. After this data release, market risk appetite increased, leading to intensified buying activity in the DAX index.
Today, there is an expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut in the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting.
Technically, on the upside if the price holds above the 18,500 resistance, buying could push the index first toward the 18,700 resistance and then to 18,900. if the 18,500 level is broken to the downside, a pullback could extend first to the 18,285 support and then to 18.075.
USDJPY Technical AnalysisWhen the USDJPY 4-hour chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue below the triangle formation. As long as the USDJPY level of 146.826 cannot be passed upwards, it is evaluated that in price movements below the level of 144.071, it can break down to the level of 140.726 and retreat to the level of 134.941.
EURUSD Technical AnalysisWhen the EURUSD 4-hour chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue in a downward trend. While it is evaluated that EURUSD may retreat to the level of 1.09197 in price movements below the 1.09688 support level, it is evaluated that it may exceed the level of 1.10706 and target the level of 1.11340 in price movements above 1.10272.
Will UKOIL continue its decline?The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that global oil demand will reach a higher level this year, while noting that the increase in production will be lower than previously forecasted. Additionally, the EIA reduced its price forecast for Brent crude oil in 2024 by 2.4%, from $84.44 per barrel to $82.80 per barrel. As a result, Brent crude oil prices fell to the $70.0 level.
Technically, if the 69.30 support level is broken, further declines toward 67.50 and 65.60 are possible. On the upside, if the 71.50 resistance is surpassed, buying momentum could accelerate toward the 73.0 and 74.30 resistance levels.
Silver is Rising!With the weakening of the U.S. labor market, expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed remain intact. In this context, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have turned downward. The dollar's depreciation in yesterday's session led to a recovery in commodities, supporting a rebound in silver prices from the 27.75 level. The inflation data to be released today will provide further clues regarding the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts.
From a technical perspective, if prices hold above the 28.90 resistance level, a rise to 30.0 and then to 30.80 could occur. On the downside, if the price falls below the 27.75 support level, it could decline to 26.75 and then to 25.70.
SOLUSDT Technical AnalysisWhen the daily chart of SOLUSDT is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue in a downward trend. It is evaluated that the crypto can target the level of 196 by passing the level of 152 in price movements above the level of 133, but it is evaluated that it can retreat to the level of 94 by breaking the level of 111 in price movements below the level of 133.
BTCUSDT Technical AnalysisWhen the BTCUSDT daily chart is examined; It is observed that the price movements continue in a downward trend. It is evaluated that the crypto can target the 64835 level by passing the 59867 level in price movements above the 53657 level, but it is evaluated that it can retreat to the 43817 level by breaking the 49071 level in price movements below the 53657 level.
DAX Index Recovers Its Losses!Following the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll report, which came in below expectations, market risk appetite weakened. The DAX index also accelerated its decline, targeting the 18,257 support level. Expectations for a Fed rate cut have strengthened to 50 basis points, while the ECB is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points at its meeting this week.
Technically, if the 18,285 level is broken on the downside, a pullback could extend first to the 18,075 support and then to 17,920. On the upside, if the price holds above the 18,500 resistance, buying could push the index first towards the 18,700 resistance and then to 18,900.
"USOIL is going downward"The weakening labor market has reduced risk appetite in the markets, triggering a drop in crude oil prices toward the 67.50 level. Additionally, OPEC+'s crude oil production in August decreased by 300,000 barrels due to declines in Libya and Kazakhstan. However, ongoing supply concerns continue to pressure the commodity.
Technically, if the 67.50 support level is broken, further declines toward 65.55 and 63.55 are possible. On the upside, if the 70.0 resistance is surpassed, buying momentum could accelerate toward the 72.60 and 74.50 resistance levels.