USDCAD still look bearishUpdated from 8/13 analysis
This morning news release had a negative impact on USD, I'm looking for UCAD to continue pushing down.
Forextrading
AUD/USD Reversal: Bullish MomentumThe AUD/USD pair has shown signs of recovery after dipping to the 0.63500 level, with the price currently rising around 0.6595. This rebound is partly fueled by the US Dollar (USD) facing challenges due to growing expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. However, the pressure on the USD might ease as the likelihood of a 50-basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting diminishes.
From our perspective, we anticipate that the AUD/USD will continue its upward trajectory, potentially reaching the Supply zone around 0.6700, with a possibility of extending higher to 0.6800. This target area is crucial for evaluating the next strategic move. The current market sentiment indicates that Smart Money is positioning itself long, while Retail traders are predominantly short. This imbalance suggests a potential increase in the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the pair gains momentum.
Given these factors, our focus is on monitoring the price action as it approaches these key levels. We expect that once the price reaches the 0.6700 to 0.6800 range, a potential setup may emerge, providing an opportunity to capitalize on the AUD's strengthening against the USD. This analysis aligns with the broader market dynamics, indicating that the AUD is poised for further gains in the near term.
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XAGUSDXAGUSD price is currently near the support zone of 27.26. If the price can still stand above 27.26, it is expected that the price will have a chance to rebound.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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*Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management
GBP/AUD Short, NZD/JPY Short, USD/CAD Short and EUR/CAD ShortGBP/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If area of value tapped into, risk entry after a 1 hour rejection from it.
NZD/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
USD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
#XAUUSD/H4 CPI today determines the long-term trend of GOLD.Analysis of the European - US session on August 13, 2024:
On the second day, we have seen a strong increase in all sessions. Gold has approached the old peak area.
Today's CPI news will determine whether a triple peak pattern will form and whether there will be a deep correction. A reversal creating a peak has appeared on H4. The trading trend today is mainly BUY. But caution is required in sensitive price zones like this.
Price areas to watch: Zones 2430-2434; 2444-2447 and 2481-2486.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 2430-2433
SL 2427
TP 2440 - 2450 - 2470.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 2444 - 2447
SL 2441
TP 2452 - 2460 -2470.
Plan 3: SELL XAUUSD zone 2483 - 2486
SL 2492
TP 2475 - 2450 - 2430 - open.
XAU continues to increase from last weekend's sessionAt the beginning of the trading session in the US market, the world gold price continued to increase from the session at the end of last week. The US unemployment benefit application report released in the middle of last week brought optimism to the stock and gold markets.
After a quiet week, the world gold market is about to receive a series of important information that can affect the direction of the precious metal in the short term. Specifically, the producer price index, consumer price index, retail sales in July, weekly unemployment benefit applications, housing starts and building permits in the US in July, ...
Marc Chandler, General Director of Bannockburn Global Forex, said that the information that the market is most looking forward to is the July consumer price index report, which is likely to remain unchanged compared to the same period last year. This helps the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in September.
USD/CAD: Awaiting Bearish Continuation Before Potential ReversalThe USD/CAD pair has shown resilience even as the USD/DXY continues to strengthen. However, it seems to be taking its time to find a robust Support/Demand zone before embarking on a corrective phase. Our analysis, which integrates Seasonality trends, the COT report, and our proven Supply and Demand strategy, points towards an impending continuation of the bearish momentum.
Currently, we are closely monitoring the 1.36480 level—a key area where price action is likely to encounter significant demand. It is at this juncture that we expect to see a pattern indicating a potential reversal. Should such a pattern materialize, it would provide a strong signal for entering a long position at the market. This strategic approach allows us to capitalize on the anticipated recovery following the completion of the bearish cycle, positioning ourselves for a favorable entry as the price gears up for a bullish turn.
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USD/JPY:Liquidity Grab at 142.000 Signals Long Setup OpportunityThe USD/JPY pair recently experienced a liquidity grab around the 142.000 area, which coincides with a key demand zone. This convergence of factors presents a compelling opportunity for a long setup, especially when analyzed in conjunction with the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, seasonality trends, and our supply and demand analysis.
The liquidity grab at 142.000 is a critical event, as it often indicates a shift in market sentiment. In this case, the price dipped into a demand area where buying pressure is expected to intensify. This zone has historically acted as a strong support level, making it a prime candidate for a reversal and an upward move.
Our analysis of the COT report further strengthens the case for a long position. The data suggests that large traders and institutional investors are increasingly positioning themselves on the bullish side of USD/JPY, indicating confidence in a potential upward trajectory. This shift in market sentiment aligns with the technical indicators we've identified in the 142.000 demand area.
Seasonality trends also play a supportive role in this setup. Historically, certain periods have favored the US dollar against the Japanese yen, leading to upward movements in the pair. This seasonal pattern, combined with the current technical and sentiment-based factors, creates a favorable environment for a long position.
Given the liquidity grab at 142.000, the confluence with a demand zone, and the positive signals from the COT report and seasonality analysis, we are looking to enter a long setup in USD/JPY. Traders should consider this opportunity, as the potential for a significant upward move appears strong.
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NZD/JPY: A Potential Reversal in the MakingThe NZD/JPY pair has recently caught the attention of traders following a notable drop to the 83.000 level. This move downwards was met with significant demand pressure, setting the stage for what appears to be a potential reversal. Starting from last Wednesday, the pair has shown signs of recovery, indicating that a bullish trend might be on the horizon.
From a Supply and Demand perspective, the dip to 83.000 acted as a critical demand zone, where buyers stepped in to support the price. This zone, which had previously been tested, held firm, suggesting that there is substantial interest in the NZD/JPY at these levels. As the pair began to rise from this support, it confirmed that the demand pressure was strong enough to halt the decline and possibly reverse the trend.
Adding to the bullish sentiment is the analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The latest data indicates a shift in positioning among large speculators and commercial traders. These market participants, who often have access to more comprehensive market data and insights, appear to be positioning themselves for a potential upward move in the NZD/JPY. This shift in sentiment among key market players further reinforces the likelihood of a reversal.
Seasonality also plays a role in our bullish outlook. Historically, certain times of the year have been more favorable for the NZD/JPY pair, with increased demand for the New Zealand dollar during specific seasons. This seasonal trend, combined with the current technical setup and COT data, provides a strong case for considering a long position in the pair.
In conclusion, the recent drop in NZD/JPY to the 83.000 level has sparked a potential reversal, supported by strong demand, favorable COT positioning, and seasonal factors. Traders looking to capitalize on this opportunity should consider a long position, keeping a close eye on further developments in the market.
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GBP/AUD Short, USD/CAD Short, NZD/USD Long and GBP/CHF ShortGBP/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If area of value tapped into, risk entry after a 1 hour rejection from it.
USD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
NZD/USD Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse up above area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBP/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
The next target for gold price is the 2,580-2,585 zone.Gold prices are expected to remain stable this week, with 60% calling for a sideways trend. The remaining 40% see gold prices rising. In an online Main Street poll, 62% of retailers see gold rising, while 21% see gold falling.
senior market strategist at Forex, sees gold prices rising. Gold investors are still in control. After the gold price fell, buying orders immediately increased. The market is ready to wait for an opportunity for gold to break above $2,500 an ounce.
Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said the gold market is changing so quickly that it is difficult for traders to predict the direction.
Lusk expects gold prices to rise higher by the end of the year
Investors hope gold will increase in the coming time.Most industry experts predict that gold prices will remain flat. Most retail traders expect gold prices to rise.
The market will be paying attention to some notable economic news this week, including the July PPI, July CPI, July retail sales and weekly jobless claims, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment survey for August, etc.
The market is currently focused entirely on the prospect of a September interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Gold investors will pay close attention to the Fed's speaker list this week.
AUD/USD Rebounds from Yearly Low, Bullish SetupThe AUD/USD pair has experienced a significant rebound after hitting its yearly low around the 0.63500 level. This area, which briefly saw the price dip below support, appeared to be a liquidity grab, followed by a strong reversal in direction. This move indicates a potential shift in market sentiment, with the pair possibly gearing up for a bullish trend.
Given this price action, we are now closely monitoring the AUD/USD for a long setup. The rebound from this critical support level suggests that buyers are stepping in, and we anticipate a continuation of this upward momentum in the near term. The current technical landscape, combined with the broader market context, supports the possibility of a sustained bullish movement, making this an attractive opportunity for a long position.
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EURNZD Double Top Formation Signals Potential Short OpportunityThe EURNZD currency pair has recently formed a classic double top pattern at a significant supply area, signaling a potential reversal. This double top aligns with broader Forex seasonality trends, reinforcing the likelihood of a downward movement. The confluence of these technical and seasonal factors suggests that the current levels may offer an attractive entry point for short positions.
Traders observing this setup on a daily timeframe may find it an opportune moment to capitalize on the anticipated bearish trend. As the pair tests the supply zone for the second time, we are closely monitoring the price action for signs of a sustained reversal. With the added weight of seasonal analysis, this short position aligns with a broader strategy of trading in harmony with established market cycles.
We are considering a short position on EURNZD, targeting potential downside as the pair responds to the resistance offered by the supply area and the natural seasonality patterns in the Forex market.
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Xauusd sell Gold price holds onto gains above $2,400 on Fed’s sizable rate-cut prospects
Gold price falls slightly but remains broadly firm on multiple tailwinds on Friday. Investors are divided over the size of Fed rate cuts in September. Fed officials acknowledge the softening of inflation and slowing labor demand.Gold price trades in a channel formation on a daily timeframe, which is slightly rising but broadly exhibited a sideways performance for more than three months. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $2,370 continues to provide support to the Gold price bulls.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates within the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.
A fresh upside would appear if the Gold price breaks above its all-time high of $2,483.75, which will send it into unchartered territory.
On the downside, the upward-sloping trendline at $2,225, plotted from the October 6 low near $1,810.50, will be a major support in the longer term.Gold has been considered a highly valuable commodity for millennia and the gold price is widely followed in financial markets around the world. Mostly quoted in US Dollars (XAU/USD), gold price tends to increase as stocks and bonds decline. The metal holds its value well, making it a reliable safe-haven. It's traded constantly based on the intra-day spot rate. Improve your technical analysis of live gold prices with the real-time XAU/USD chart, and read our latest gold news, expert analysis and gold price forecast.
AUD/NZD Short, GBP/CHF Short, EUR/JPY Short and GBP/JPY ShortAUD/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBP/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
GBP/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
XAU slightly down todayBOCI head of commodities Amelia Xiao Fu said that gold still has some weakness, mainly due to the strength of the US dollar, but the macro environment for gold is relatively positive.
Investors expect central banks to cut interest rates, which will limit the possibility of gold falling, if not push gold prices to new record highs. He expects gold prices to reach $2,500 in the short term, said Forex.com market analyst Fawad Razaqzada.
XAU is sideways todayForecasting the gold price trend, although gold has had two consecutive sessions of price decline, experts said that the decline of gold has been significantly limited thanks to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September and concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
GBP/USD:Anticipating a Bearish Scenario for the British PoundFollowing our successful forecast on the British Pound (link below), we are now poised to take advantage of another shorting opportunity as the price retests the previous supply area. This retest suggests a possible bearish scenario on the horizon.
Our analysis is further supported by the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates a notable increase in retail long positions. This influx of long positions among retail traders often precedes a bearish reversal, providing additional validation for our anticipated market movement.
As the British Pound retests the supply area, we foresee a potential new bearish impulse forming. This aligns with our strategic outlook, where we aim to capitalize on the expected downward momentum. The convergence of technical analysis and trader sentiment data strengthens our confidence in this bearish forecast.
In summary, we are preparing for a bearish scenario for the British Pound, leveraging the retest of the supply area and the insights gained from the COT report. This approach ensures we remain well-positioned to take advantage of the expected market movements. Stay tuned for further updates and detailed analysis.
Previous Forecast:
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USDJPY: Important Supply Zone Ahead 🇺🇸🇯🇵
With a recent selloff, USDJPY violated 2 significant structures:
a major rising trend line and a key horizontal support on a daily.
The broken structures compose an expanding supply zone now.
I think that the market can initiate a bearish movement from that.
With a high probability, a fall will continue and the pair will reach 142.0 level.
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EUR/USD Short, GBP/JPY Short, AUD/NZD Short and GBP/CHF ShortEUR/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
GBP/JPY Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
AUD/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• If 3 touch 1H continuation or 2 touch 1H continuation with 3 touch structural approach, 15 min risk entry within it.
GBP/CHF Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
XAU falls as investors sell offGold prices fell today (August 6) as investors continued to sell gold to cover losses in the stock market. Markets are also continuing to feel the negative impact of the cancellation of the "yen carry trade" as well as concerns about a recession in the US and globally, reducing demand for precious metals.
Stock markets plunged from Asia to North America as investors fled riskier assets while betting that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will need to cut interest rates quickly to boost US economic growth.
GBP/NZD Short, USD/CAD Short and EUR/USD ShortGBP/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
USD/CAD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Break above area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If 3 touch 15 min continuation or 2 touch 15 min continuation with 3 touch structural approach follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
