Fri 11th Oct 2024 GBP/CAD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a GBP/CAD Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Forextrading
EURCHF: Successive rejections on the 1D MA50. Bearish.EURCHF is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.451, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 26.515) as it's been failing to cross over the 1D MA50 and reverse the trend. Given that the long term pattern is still a Channel Down, this gives a new sell signal with the RSI suggesting we are running a similar below 1D MA50 sequence as August 2023. For the remainder of the year, we are aiming for the bottom of the Channel Down, close to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 0.91500).
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EURJPY: Well supported on the 1W MA100 but needs more to rise.EURJPY is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.394, MACD = 0.690, ADX = 37.501), practically neutral as it's been ranging between the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100. The long term pattern is a Channel Up since 2021 and the recent 1W MA100 test is the new bottom (HL) of the pattern. The 1W MA50-100 consolidation is the bottom formation and even though it's encouraging we need a crossing over the 1W MA50 in order to validate the new rise. Technically it should be around +18.70% like the previous two. Set your target accordingly (TP = 183.500).
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EURUSD: Dollar holds steady as Fed minutes emergeThe US dollar remained steady today, providing some respite for the yen and other major currencies after rising to a seven-week high last week. Market participants are taking a moment to assess the future trajectory of US interest rates.
Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting today, which will reveal the discussions that led to a 50 basis point rate cut, agreed by all but one policymaker amid a seemingly worsening labour market.
NZDUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 0.6080
Stop Loss: 0.6140 (60 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 0.5980 (100 pips below entry, offering a 1.67:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
The New Zealand dollar is displaying signs of weakness, and with global risk-off sentiment prevailing, NZD/USD may continue to fall towards 0.5980. This setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity.
GBPUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 1.3091
Stop Loss: 1.3170 (80 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 1.2970 (120 pips below entry, offering a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
GBP/USD faces increasing downward pressure as the U.K. economy remains fragile, while the U.S. dollar benefits from its relative strength. This trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio in light of these macroeconomic factors.
Gold prices plummet after CPI newsGold is currently trading around $2,608 an ounce, down 1.7% this week. This is largely due to rising US Treasury yields, which have dampened expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points.
Minutes of the Fed's recent meeting showed that Chairman Jerome Powell faced some opposition to the rate cut in September. Some officials expressed that the rate cut should be smaller than the 50 basis points. Separately, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Wednesday that monetary policy easing should be done at a slower pace after last month's cut.
Markets are awaiting CPI data due later Thursday. If inflation continues to decline, this will support the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the near future.
XAU plummetsGold prices also fell due to profit-taking pressure after the precious metal surged and set a record high at the end of last month. The price drop is inevitable, even if gold is in a long-term uptrend.
Previously, gold was forecast to increase in price until at least mid-2025 following the US Federal Reserve's interest rate cut trend. The Fed began its interest rate cut cycle in mid-September and signaled that it would cut interest rates until 2026. This also means that pressure will be placed on the USD. Gold will benefit.
However, the USD has recently turned around after a sharp decline. Investors are worried that the Fed will not continue to cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at its November meeting, but may only cut by 0.25 points when the US economy is still quite strong.
AUDUSD: Short Term SellEntry: 0.6727
Stop Loss: 0.6800 (73 pips above entry)
Take Profit: 0.6600 (127 pips below entry, offering a 1.7:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning:
With global risk-off sentiment growing and commodity prices showing signs of weakness, AUD/USD could face further downside pressure. This setup capitalizes on potential bearish momentum, offering a strong risk-to-reward opportunity.
USDMXN: Short Term BuyEntry: 19.4600
Stop Loss: 19.3000 (160 pips below entry)
Take Profit: 19.7000 (240 pips above entry, offering a 1.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio)
Reasoning: The Mexican peso has been showing signs of weakening, while the U.S. dollar has been gaining strength. This trend suggests that USD/MXN could continue its upward movement, providing a potential buying opportunity.
NZDUSD: Broke under both MAs. Strong sell signalNZDUSD is highly bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.216, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 38.839) as it smashed through both the 1D MA50 and the 1D MA200. The long term structure is a Rectangle (R1 and S1 Zone) and the current pattern that is emerging is almost identical with the previous bearish waves towards the S1 Zone. It is possible to see a medium term reboudn back to the 1D MA50 but on the long term we are bearish (TP = 0.58600).
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USDCAD Short (2)USDCAD sell short as from my previous post spiked a bit before today's US FOMC news we are expecting at 2:00 PM EST. I have placed another short for USDCAD since we are phasing a major bull trend that has been building up for weeks prior to this news. I suggest placing in a short sell NOW prior to any news events occurring.
ENTRY: 1.36880
TP 1: 1.35843
TP 2: 1.35345
TP 3: 1.34797
SL: 25-30 PIPS from your entry
Please message me if you have any questions about this trade! Please enjoy your day and be sure to boost this post, follow this page, and comment what you want the next trade analysis to be! Thanks again from Aventura Holdings!
GBPUSD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis 🇬🇧🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important support and resistance levels on GBPUSD.
Resistance 1: 1.3235 - 1.3266 area
Resistance 2: 1.3312 - 1.3322 area
Resistance 3: 1.3414 - 1.3434 area
Support 1: 1.3000 - 1.3043 area
Support 2: 1.2860 - 1.2888 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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XAUUSD sell confirm signal Gold price extends its losing streak for the sixth consecutive trading day on Wednesday. The precious metal has been battered by the upbeat US Dollar, which has strengthened as traders are pricing out another Fed larger-than-usual interest rate cut of 50 bps in their next meeting in November.
Gold price extends losing spell amid upbeat US Dollar ahead of FOMC Minutes
Gold now sell 2621
Support 2600
Resistance 2640
FOMC Target
GBPJPY: Bullish Movement Ahead of FOMC 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY has a perfect potential to continue growing before the FOMC minutes today.
The price started to consolidate after a test of a rising trend on a 4H
and violated its neckline then.
The price will most likely heading towards 195.1 level now.
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