USD/CAD Weekly Technical AnalysisTrendline and Support Levels:
The USD/CAD pair is following a long-term uptrend, as highlighted by the purple ascending trendline. This trendline has acted as dynamic support since 2021, with multiple price bounces validating its strength.
Key support levels are marked at 1.33647, 1.31234, and 1.29767. These levels represent potential areas where buyers could re-enter if the price retraces, providing strong zones of interest for long-term traders.
Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance is observed around 1.38439, which aligns with recent price rejection. This level has historically acted as both support and resistance, making it an important area to watch.
The critical resistance is located at 1.40130. A breakout above this level could signal further bullish momentum, potentially leading to a new high.
Volume Profile Analysis:
The volume profile (visible range) shows a high concentration of trading volume around the 1.33647 level, indicating a significant area of price acceptance. This zone could act as strong support if the price moves down, as traders may view it as a fair value level.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI appears to be in a neutral range, hovering near the 50 mark, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, it would be prudent to monitor RSI for any breakout above 70 or drop below 30, which could signal potential trend reversals or continuation.
Volume Analysis:
Volume has shown occasional spikes, reflecting heightened activity during key price movements. However, recent weeks have seen average volume levels, suggesting a steady interest from traders without excessive volatility.
Outlook and Strategy:
Bullish Scenario: A breakout above 1.40130 could trigger further upside momentum, making higher levels a target for long-term bulls. Watch for confirmation through strong bullish candlesticks and increased volume.
Bearish Scenario: If the price fails to hold above 1.38439 and closes below the trendline, it could signal a reversal or consolidation phase, with 1.33647 as a key downside target. Traders should watch for bearish signals like a break below the trendline and potential RSI divergence.
Conclusion: USD/CAD is currently trading near a significant resistance level, testing the strength of the ongoing uptrend. Traders should watch for a breakout above 1.40130 to confirm bullish momentum, while a break below the trendline could suggest consolidation or a potential reversal. Patience is advised as the price approaches these key levels.
Forextrading
AUDNZD: Bullish extension expected.AUDNZD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.156, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 27.433) as it maintained the rebound made on the 4H MA200 and bottom of the Channel Up. According to the 4H RSI, this pattern is similar to the 4H MA200 of April that made one final extension on that rebound to the 1.786 Fibonacci level. Our target is slightly under it (TP = 1.117500).
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EURUSD: Get ready for a fast short.EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.619, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 44.229) as it has started the new bullish wave following the test of the 1 year HL trendline but on 1H it got overbought (RSI = 76.034) rebounding very aggressively on its 1H MA50. That is fairly similar to the October 30th rebound of the bullish wave that topped upon a +1.15% rise. We are approaching that % increase so get ready to short. So far we have had two pullbacks of -0.56% each, an amazing display of symmetry inside the Channel Up. That is our target on the short term (TP = 1.08950).
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Why Trading Sessions Matter in Forex: Key OverlapsThe Forex market is open 24 hours a day during the weekdays, allowing traders flexibility to trade at any time. However, understanding the best times to trade is essential for effective trading. The market is divided into four main sessions: Sydney, Tokyo, London, and New York, each corresponding to peak activity in key financial centers. Using a Forex Market Time Zone Converter can help traders determine which sessions are active in their local time, making it easier to plan around high-liquidity periods.
Although the market is technically always open, not all trading times are equally profitable. Higher trading volume, which generally occurs during session overlaps, creates ideal conditions for traders. For example, the overlap of the London and New York sessions sees the highest volume, with more than 50% of daily trades occurring in these two centers. Trading at this time, especially with currency pairs like GBP/USD, can lead to tighter spreads and quicker order execution, reducing slippage and increasing the likelihood of profitable trades. Similarly, trading AUD/JPY during the Asian session, when the Tokyo market is active, is advantageous due to higher trading activity for these currencies.
Conversely, trading during times when only one session is active, such as during the Sydney session alone, can result in wider spreads and less market movement, making it harder to achieve profitable trades. Planning trades around high-activity sessions and overlaps is key to effective forex trading.
Gold Consolidates Ahead of U.S. Election🟡 Gold Price Update: Currently at $2737.00
Gold has been moving sideways recently, showing a period of consolidation as market participants await further catalysts. This sideways movement reflects uncertainty and cautious positioning, likely influenced by the upcoming U.S. election. Historically, major events like elections can introduce volatility as investors seek safe-haven assets in times of uncertainty, and gold often responds with significant moves.
📊 Technical Outlook
Support Zone: $2725.00 - $2730.00
Resistance Zone: $2745.00 - $2755.00
Range: The current range-bound movement between $2725 and $2755 indicates that buyers and sellers are in balance for now, awaiting clearer market direction.
Key Indicators:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently near the 50 level, showing neutral momentum. A breakout above 60 could signal buying strength, while a drop below 40 may suggest a bearish momentum.
Moving Averages: The 20-period SMA is close to the price action, underlining the ongoing consolidation. Watch for price action to decisively break above or below the SMA, potentially signaling a new trend.
Volume: Volume has been decreasing, suggesting a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers. Look for a volume increase on any breakout to confirm the direction.
🔮 Possible Scenarios with U.S. Election Implications
With the election on the horizon, any surprising result or political uncertainty could cause a significant uptick in gold demand as investors seek safety. However, a clear result may bring stability, potentially putting downward pressure on gold.
Trade Setup Idea:
Bullish: Consider buying on a confirmed breakout above $2755, targeting $2780 or higher.
Bearish: A break below $2725 could open doors for a drop to $2700.
As always, keep your risk management tight and watch for news developments. The market will react sharply as new information comes in!
GBPUSD Bearish SellsGBPUSD Analysis 15M entry
We are currently active on our sniper sell after NFP Fridays news event.
Price is currently distributing and going into our NFP candle. I'm waiting for a reaction out of that zone and looking to take another sell and continue the downtrend.
I will be executing the sell limit IF price comes higher first and activates the sell.
NZDJPY: Rectangle trading calls for buying.NZDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.566, MACD = 0.350, ADX = 19.993) as it's been trading sideways inside a Rectangle pattern since September 27th. The recent rebound happened on the 4H MA200 and today it took a rejection on the 4H MA50. One more test of the 4H MA200 is possible but overall it is more likely to see an upward test of the lower Resistance Zone (TP = 91.800).
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XAUUSDGold is still in a strong uptrend. If the price can still hold above 2728, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying in the red zone.
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Nonfarm Trading PlanFundamental Analysis
The Federal Reserve (Fed) meets next week and announces its monetary policy decision on Thursday, November 7. The odds of a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut are 94.5%, down slightly from 95.5% last week. However, market players are still weighing whether a Republican victory in the upcoming presidential election could force the Fed to slow its easing.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep its interest rate target unchanged at 0.25% on Thursday and reiterated its forecast for inflation to remain near its 2% target. The announcement weighed on the Japanese Yen (JPY), supporting the US Dollar.
Asian and European stock indexes fell sharply, leading Wall Street to a second straight day of declines. Focus now shifts to the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, due out on Friday. The economy is expected to add 113,000 new jobs in October, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%.
Technical Analysis
After a sharp drop in gold prices last night in the US session, gold recovered from the 2730 area. The 2732 area is considered an important session port area when the market's momentum begins to jump into the market. The Asian breakout zone is also noted around 2744 for scalping around the European session when selling pressure returns. Currently, gold cannot break 2754, so gold will have a push to 44 and 30 before Nonfarm. According to this scenario, Nonfarm gold will continue to sweep down first and it will be difficult to push up after Nonfarm. Pay attention to the 2720 and 2710 zones when nonfarm is announced. If gold breaks to the 2754 zone, it will be pushed back to the 2761 and 2773 zones to execute the SELL plan.
AUDCHFAUDCHF price is in the correction phase. The price has a chance to test the support zone 0.56356-0.56177. If the price cannot break through the 0.56177 level, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
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Fri 1st Nov 2024 GBP/JPY Daily Forex Chart Sell SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a GBP/JPY Sell. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Xauusd buy confirm signal Gold stays in a consolidation phase after setting a new record-high of $2,790. US political jitters and Middle East tensions might continue to act as a tailwind for the XAU/USD. Traders keenly await the release of the US PCE Price Index before placing fresh directional bets.
Gold now buy 2780
Support 2790
Support 2795
NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Slight Bullish Bias Amid Today !!NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Slight Bullish Bias Amid Current Market Conditions (31/10/2024)
Introduction
As we delve into today’s trading session, the NZDUSD pair shows signs of a slightly bullish bias due to a combination of fundamental drivers and current market conditions. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the NZDUSD's outlook on October 31, 2024, shedding light on the key factors impacting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the US Dollar (USD) in today’s trading environment. With the right blend of technical and fundamental insights, we aim to offer valuable insights for traders considering NZDUSD positions.
Key Fundamental Drivers Impacting NZDUSD Today
1. China's Economic Growth and Its Influence on NZD
- The New Zealand Dollar, a commodity-linked currency, closely correlates with China's economic health due to New Zealand's export reliance. Recent reports suggest a moderate recovery in China's industrial and manufacturing data, which bodes well for NZD. Increased demand for New Zealand exports, especially dairy, bolsters the Kiwi's outlook, creating an overall positive sentiment for NZDUSD.
2. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Stance
- A significant driver for NZDUSD is the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, with expectations for a pause on future rate hikes. This has resulted in a softer USD as investors anticipate fewer rate hikes going forward. A dovish Fed policy tends to weaken the USD, increasing the attractiveness of the NZD and slightly tilting NZDUSD towards bullishness.
3. New Zealand's Stable Economic Indicators
- New Zealand’s recent economic data reveals consistent GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and a robust labor market. This stability has created an optimistic environment for the New Zealand Dollar. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a steady rate outlook, supporting the Kiwi by keeping investors interested in NZD assets due to positive yields.
4. US Treasury Yield Fluctuations and Its Impact on USD
- The ongoing fluctuations in US Treasury yields have contributed to the USD's recent mixed performance. A decline in yields typically makes the USD less attractive, as lower yields reduce the appeal for foreign investors. As a result, NZDUSD may benefit from a weaker USD, supporting a bullish bias in today’s trading.
5. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite
- Recent geopolitical tensions and global market fluctuations have impacted the broader market sentiment. The Kiwi typically gains when there is a higher risk appetite among investors. As volatility stabilizes, we may see increased demand for higher-yielding currencies, which could strengthen NZDUSD’s position, albeit moderately.
Technical Analysis of NZDUSD (31/10/2024)
Looking at today’s technical setup for NZDUSD, the pair trades above its 50-day moving average, a potential bullish indicator. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits near the 60 mark, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. Support levels at 0.5850 and resistance near 0.5920 will be critical zones to monitor.
Key Support: 0.5850
Key Resistance: 0.5920
Conclusion: NZDUSD Outlook for 31/10/2024
With today’s economic data and current sentiment, the NZDUSD pair leans towards a slightly bullish outlook. Strong economic fundamentals from New Zealand, coupled with a softer US Dollar from a dovish Federal Reserve stance, are influencing the pair's potential upward movement. However, traders should stay vigilant to potential changes in Treasury yields and any abrupt shifts in global risk sentiment.
By focusing on today’s fundamental and technical drivers, NZDUSD traders can better gauge the market’s slight bullish bias.
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EURUSD: First 1H Golden Cross formed in 6 weeks.EURUSD may be marginally bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.367, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 65.014) but on 1H it is cruising to the RSI overbought level as it formed the first 1H Golden Cross since September 15th. Technically it is a bullish pattern but short term the price has to overcome the S1 level (just hit it) and an almost overbought 4H RSI. This may give you the last opportunity to buy and target the 0.618 Fibonacci (TP = 1.10385), which has been the minimum target on every 1H Golden Cross since August.
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GBPUSD Buy Opportunity from SupportGBPUSD recently broke below its previous support level, yet it has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern near the psychological level of 1.3000. This level has shown resilience as the market decelerated while approaching it, forming a bullish divergence that strengthens the case for a rebound. The price has also bounced off the channel boundary and has now closed above the 1.3000 mark, showing higher lows, indicating building bullish momentum. Additionally, with the DXY forming a triple top at its resistance zone, there’s potential for a downward correction in the dollar, which could further support a GBPUSD rally. The target is the resistance zone around 1.3110
Wed 30th Oct 2024 GBP/USD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a GBP/USD Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
NZD/CHF Long, EUR/AUD Short and EUR/NZD ShortNZD/CHF Long
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse up above area of inflection.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EUR/NZD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
This currency pair, after breaking through the support zone, has now reached the trend line and the next support area. It is anticipated that after a minor bullish correction and a pullback to the broken level, it will continue its downward movement toward lower levels.
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EURUSD Hits Demand Zone, Potential for an Up CorrectionEURUSD has reached a demand zone that previously spurred a rally in August. The recent fake breakout at the 1.07800 level suggests that the market may be primed for a pullback, especially as DXY is also testing a key resistance. On the 4H timeframe, a bullish divergence has formed, indicating a potential correction to the upside. If this demand zone holds and the divergence plays out, the market could retrace toward the next resistance zone around 1.09190 as it corrects from the recent overextension
CADJPY: Accumulating under the 1W MA50. Low risk buy.CADJPY is on a healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.003, MACD = 0.700, ADX = 25.174) as it hit this week the 1W MA50 for the first time in 3 months. Rejection or not, historical price action shows that every time it tests it coming from a bottom on the 2 year Channel Up, the price breaks it and goes for a HH. The 1W MACD just made this week the new Bullish Cross and the last time it did so on such a low level, it was on April 3rd 2023, exactly at the start of the previous bullish wave. We expect initiallt the price to approach the R1 level, which is our Target (TP = 118.000), like the price did on June 26 2023.
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