Fri 25th Oct 2024 EUR/USD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a EURUSD Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Forextrading
AUDCAD: 1D MA50 just confirmed a sell signal.AUDCAD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.833, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 20.919) as the price hit and remains on the 1D MA50. The long term pattern is a Channel Up that 3 weeks ago made the latest HH. The crossing under the 1D MA50 has confirmed the new bearish wave as the July 23rd January 5th 2024 crossings did. The 1D RSI is also on an identical correction. All pullback waves hit atleast the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which yet again is what you should be targeting (TP = 0.905500).
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NZDCAD: Intraday Bearish Movement 🇳🇿🇨🇦
Similarly to NZDUSD, NZDCAD looks bearish after
a test of a key horizontal resistance.
The price formed a tiny horizontal range on that
and violated its support after a release of US fundamentals.
The price may continue falling now at least to 0.8309
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GBPJPY Potential Up Trend ContinuationGBPJPY is forming a bullish trend, marked by higher highs and higher lows on the 1H timeframe. Recently, it broke and closed above the 195.600 resistance zone, a level that had been tested multiple times. Following this breakout, the market could surge toward the upper boundary of the channel. Given the choppy market behaviour since the beginning of October, this breakout could potentially be significant. The target is the resistance zone around 196.900
EURUSD Bearish momentumEURUSD has bounced off the resistance level and has been in a bearish trend since the start of October, marking three consecutive bearish weeks. It's likely that the price will pull back toward the resistance zone before resuming its downward movement. If the price pulls back against the main trend, this could result in a classic correction, followed by trend continuation. The market may form a complex pullback toward the resistance area near 1.0900 and the downward trendline, after which we could see a sell-off as the bearish momentum continues. The target is the support level around 1.07920
GBPUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GBPUSD?
This currency pair has reached a key support area after its recent decline. This zone may trigger a short-term bullish correction; however, we expect the price to resume its downtrend after the correction and drop towards the specified levels.
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EUR JPY Entry Setup 2 Hour TimeframeOn the 2 hour timeframe, EURJPY has formed a bullish rectangle continuation pattern, followed by a strong breakout to the upside.
To confirm our entry, we need to wait for the price to pull back to the retest level, where we'll look for candlestick confirmations before entering a buy position.⏰
Learn Best Time Frames For Scalping Any Forex Pair
I am trading forex with top-down analysis for many years.
In this article, I will teach you powerful combinations of multiple time frames for scalping any currency pair.
For scalping financial markets with multiple time frame analysis, I recommend applying 3 time frames: 4H, 15 minutes and 5 minutes time frames.
4H time frame will be applied for trend and structure analysis.
On a 4H time frame, you should identify the direction of the market and significant supports and resistance.
Key supports in a bullish trend will be applied for buying the market.
While key resistances will be applied for counter trend trading.
Above is USDJPY chart, 4H time frame.
The trend is bullish and I have underlined important historical structures.
Key resistances in a bearish trend will be applied for selling the market.
While key supports will be applied for counter trend trading.
Look at a structure and trend analysis on EURUSD on a 4H time frame.
15 minutes and 5 minutes time frames will be applied for confirmation, entry signal and trade execution.
The logic is that once you identified key levels on a 4H time frame, you are patiently waiting for the test of one of these structures.
Once one of the key levels is tested, you start analyzing 15 minutes and 5 minutes time frame and look for a signal there.
What should be the signal?
It can be a specific candlestick pattern, price action pattern, some signal from a technical indicator or some other stuff.
Personally, I look for a price action pattern.
I am looking for a bearish price action pattern on a 4H resistance and a bullish price action pattern on a 4H support.
Look at GBPUSD. The pair is trading in a bearish trend on a 4H time frame, and it tests a key horizontal resistance.
On 15 minutes time frame, we see a strong bearish price action signal.
Head and shoulders pattern formation and a bearish breakout of its horizontal neckline.
That will be our strong scalping short signal.
If you sell the market in a bearish trend on a 4H from a key resistance, you can anticipate a bearish movement to the closest 4H support.
Look how nicely GBPUSD dropped after a strong bearish confirmation of 15 minutes time frame.
In that case, we did not apply 5 minutes time frame in our analysis,
keep reading and I will explain when we apply 5 minutes time frame for scalping.
Above is USDCAD. On a 4H time frame, I executed trend and structure analysis. We see a test of a key support in a bullish trend.
At the same time, no pattern is formed on 15 minutes time frame after a test of structure.
In such a situation, analyze 5 minutes time frame. If there is no pattern on 15m, probabilities will be high that the pattern will appear on 5m.
On 5 minutes time frame, the pair formed the ascending triangle formation. A bullish breakout of its neckline is a strong bullish signal and confirmation for us to buy.
If you buy the market in a bullish trend on a 4H from a key support, you can anticipate a bullish movement to the closest 4H resistance.
You can see that after our confirmed bullish signal, the price went up to Resistance 1.
Both trading opportunities that we discussed are trend following ones.
Remember that the trades that are taken against the trend are riskier and have lower accuracy.
For that reason, if you are a newbie trader, strictly trade with the trend!
Good luck in scalping with multiple time frame analysis!
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Aussie Yen on the Rise: Could It Hit 103.000 Soon?Hey Realistic Traders, let’s dive into the analysis of OANDA:AUDJPY !
On the H4 timeframe, Aussie Yen is holding strong above the EMA90, signaling a solid bullish trend. We’ve also seen a breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern, which typically points to a continuation of the current uptrend. The MACD indicator shows a hidden bullish divergence, where the price makes higher lows while the indicator makes lower lows. This often suggests underlying strength and the potential for the uptrend to continue, reinforcing the bullish momentum.
With these key technical factors in alignment, we could witness an exciting push towards Target Area 1 at 103.000, or even up to Target Area 2 at 103.972. However, traders should keep a close eye on the stop-loss level at 99.946 to manage risk effectively.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Gold. "
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EURUSD: On the 1 year HL support. Rebound expected.EURUSD turned oversold oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 28.128, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 71.753) as the price even crossed under the 0.618 Fibonacci level and is approaching the HL Zone, the lower level of which started 1 year ago (on the October 3rd 2023 low). The 1D RSI is oversold for the 3rd time since then, which is alone a huge bullish signal. We expect at least a short term rebound to test the 1D MA50 (TP = 1.09800).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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USDCAD: Rejection expected on the 2 year Resistance Zone.USDCAD is bullish on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 60.180, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 23.071) and turned overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.243). This is taking place while the price is just underneath the 2 year R1 Zone, which has rejected the price 5 times already. The 1D RSI is also about to enter its R1 Zone. We expect another rejection towards the S1 level (TP = 1.34500).
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Gold long will too long read the caption Good Day... And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, a PT guy came to the house yesterday, sent by my doctors, to get me strong again... I told the PT that my youngest son was a PT, and he about turned around and left, but then I told him that my son hadn't checked with me, so he was more than welcome to begin... I passed all the tests! I even blew the guy away with my balance! And That, was the highlight of my day! I did sit outside and read again, marking two days in a row of me getting outside... It's the little things that I work toward these days.... Uriah Heap greets me this morning with their 70's anthem song: July Morning... This is the song that I quote the lyrics to the first Pfennig of July
USDJPY Slightly Bearish Bias on October 22, 2024 !!USDJPY Slightly Bearish Bias on October 22, 2024: Key Drivers and Analysis
As of October 22, 2024, the USDJPY currency pair is exhibiting a slightly bearish bias based on the latest market conditions and fundamental factors. In this article, we’ll break down the key drivers that could contribute to this potential weakness in the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and provide insights for traders looking to capitalize on these movements.
1. Dovish Federal Reserve Outlook Weakens USD
The US Dollar has been losing momentum in recent sessions due to a shift in market sentiment around the future path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Recent economic data out of the US, including softer-than-expected retail sales and a slowdown in the housing market, have led traders to anticipate a more dovish approach from the Fed.
Despite persistent inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve has signaled that it may pause rate hikes, which is reducing demand for the USD. This pause in tightening is making the USDJPY pair more vulnerable to downside risks, especially as traders shift to safer assets like the JPY in the face of rising uncertainty in global markets.
2. Bank of Japan's Potential Policy Shift
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has remained committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy for years, but there are signs that it may be reconsidering its stance. Speculation has grown that the BoJ might tweak its yield curve control (YCC) program or adjust its negative interest rates policy in the near future. Even though no official changes have been announced, the potential for a more hawkish policy shift is providing underlying support to the JPY.
Investors are also pricing in the possibility that inflationary pressures in Japan could push the BoJ toward policy normalization, which would make the JPY more attractive relative to the USD.
3. Safe-Haven Demand for JPY Amid Global Uncertainty
The Japanese Yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency, meaning that it tends to gain strength during periods of global uncertainty. Current geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and concerns over global economic slowdown are driving risk aversion in the markets. This sentiment is boosting demand for safe-haven assets, including the JPY, while pressuring the USDJPY pair lower.
Furthermore, ongoing concerns about China's economic recovery and lingering trade tensions between the US and other major economies are also contributing to increased risk-off sentiment, which favors the Yen over the Dollar.
4. Diverging Economic Data Between the US and Japan
While the US economy has been showing signs of weakness, with disappointing retail sales and housing market reports, Japan’s latest GDP data surprised to the upside. The Japanese economy grew faster than expected in the last quarter, reinforcing the view that the country is starting to recover from its prolonged period of stagnation. This stronger economic outlook for Japan is providing additional tailwinds for the Yen.
In contrast, US data continues to reflect a potential slowdown, leading traders to rethink their bullish stance on the USD. The combination of weaker economic performance in the US and stronger-than-expected growth in Japan is tilting the balance toward a bearish USDJPY outlook.
5. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment
From a technical perspective, the USDJPY pair has recently tested key resistance levels around 150.00 but failed to break higher, suggesting that a reversal may be underway. The pair is now trading closer to 148.50, with the potential to move lower if further downside pressure builds. Traders are watching for a break below the 148.00 support level, which could signal additional bearish momentum.
Market sentiment, as indicated by the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, shows a slight increase in speculative short positions on the USDJPY pair, reflecting the broader expectation of near-term weakness in the USD.
6. Yen Intervention Concerns
Another factor adding to the bearish bias for USDJPY is the potential for Japanese government intervention. In the past, Japan’s Ministry of Finance has intervened in the currency markets to support the Yen when it experiences excessive weakness. With USDJPY approaching levels that could trigger intervention, traders are cautious about pushing the pair higher, which is contributing to the pair’s bearish momentum.
The Japanese authorities have issued warnings in recent weeks about excessive volatility in the Yen, and this potential intervention risk is helping to keep USDJPY in check.
Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook for October 22, 2024
In conclusion, the USDJPY pair is expected to maintain a slightly bearish bias today due to several key factors, including the dovish Federal Reserve outlook, potential Bank of Japan policy shifts, and rising safe-haven demand for the Yen. The divergence in economic data between the US and Japan, coupled with technical indicators signaling downside potential, further strengthens the case for a weaker USDJPY pair in today’s trading session.
Traders should keep a close eye on upcoming economic reports from both the US and Japan, as well as any potential intervention from Japanese authorities, which could impact the pair’s trajectory. For those trading forex, today’s market environment may present opportunities to capitalize on short positions in USDJPY.
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GBPJPY: Medium term correction.GBPJPY is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.018, MACD = 1.270, ADX = 45.334) but on a decreasing rate as the aggressive rise has taken a pause and the price, despite inside a Channel Up since August, has turned sideways since October 4th on the 4H MA50. We expect the bearish wave of the Channel Up to start any day now. Even though the previous targeted the 0.618 Fib, we will aim for the 0.5 this time (TP = 190.000) as the decline may start a little higher than the current price. Keep in mind that the best trigger to sell will be a 1D MACD Bearish Cross.
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CADJPY Bullish Correction against the down trendCADJPY recently made a fake breakout of the previous support level, but quickly bounced back, taking liquidity below the previous week's low. On the daily timeframe, a long-tailed bar has formed, signaling that bulls are pushing the price higher. Additionally, on the 4H timeframe, another long-tailed bar confirms the buying pressure. A bullish divergence is present, indicating a potential trend continuation. If the market breaks and closes above the 108.500 resistance level, it could likely test the level above the equal high on the left, further confirming the bullish sentiment. The target is the resistance zone around 109.15
Gold crash the bear & continue the bull read the caption (XAU/USD) is already up half a percent to trade in the $2,730s on Monday during the European session after rising over 1.0% on Friday. The precious metal is gaining on a mixture of increased safe-haven demand due to the intensifying conflict in the Middle East and moves by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to further ease credit conditions by cutting interest rates.
EURCHF: Classic Day Trade From Trend Line 🇪🇺🇨🇭
EURCHF may drop from after a test of a falling trend line on a 4H.
Testing that, the price started to consolidate within a narrow range.
Last candle clearly reflects a local strong bearish momentum.
The pair may continue falling at least to 0.973 support.
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Mon 21st Oct 2024 EUR/USD Daily Forex Chart Buy SetupGood morning fellow traders. On my Daily Forex charts using the High Probability & Divergence trading methods from my books, I have identified a new trade setup this morning. As usual, you can read my notes on the chart for my thoughts on this setup. The trade being a EUR/USD Buy. Enjoy the day all. Cheers. Jim
Gold swing bull and bear read the caption price reached a fresh all-time high on Thursday, trading as high as $2,969.63 a troy ounce during American trading hours. Gold buyers gained confidence early in Asia as the poor performance of local shares fueled demand for safety. Demand for the bright metal was also backed by concerns about the United States (US) future government. Three weeks ahead of the election, polls show a tight vote intention between the two candidates, generating uncertainty
Gold swing bull and bear read the caption price reached a fresh all-time high on Thursday, trading as high as $2,969.63 a troy ounce during American trading hours. Gold buyers gained confidence early in Asia as the poor performance of local shares fueled demand for safety. Demand for the bright metal was also backed by concerns about the United States (US) future government. Three weeks ahead of the election, polls show a tight vote intention between the two candidates, generating uncertainty
EURCAD: Near the bottom of its Channel Down. Bullish.EURCAD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.446, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 21.257) as it is trading on the 3rd straight red 1D candle and is approaching the bottom of the 10 week Channel Down. The are more probabilities now to see a bullish reversal aimed at the top, so we turn bullish (TP = 1.51.300).
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USD/JPY – Heading to 153 with Corrections Along the WayAlright, trading family, we’re eyeing 153.07 as the next big wave for USD/JPY, but the ride might not be smooth. Expect a couple of corrective dips along the way, likely around those skinnier orange lines on the chart. Once we hit 153, the market will likely pause for a correction, though how deep that goes is still unknown until we get there.
After that correction, the next set should take us toward 154 or even higher levels if the momentum holds strong.
Key Levels to Watch:
Current Target: 153.07 – A key level where a correction is expected.
Correction Depth: Unknown until we get to 153—watch for signs of pullback strength.
Upside Potential: 154+ – If the correction is shallow, we could push to higher levels fast.
This move is shaping up to be a classic climb with a few dips to shake out weak hands. Keep an eye on those corrections—they’ll set the tone for how strong the next leg up will be.
What’s your take—are we heading straight to 154 after 153, or will we see a deeper correction first? Drop your thoughts, follow, and share if this analysis helped you prep for the next wave.
Mindbloome Trader
Trade What You See