Forextradingeducation
Top-Down Analysis of AUDUSDTop-Down Analysis of AUDUSD
Understanding the Chart:
The provided chart displays the AUDUSD pair on a 4-hour timeframe. We can observe price action, support and resistance levels, and potential trend directions.
Overall Trend:
* Short-term: The market appears to be in a downtrend based on recent price action.
* Long-term: A broader perspective (not visible on this chart) is needed to determine the long-term trend.
Key Levels:
* Resistance: The price has been facing resistance around the 0.67000 level.
* Support: The 0.65500 level appears to be a potential support area.
Entry Strategies
Using Fibonacci Retracements (Below Discount)
* Identify a recent swing high and swing low: Determine the highest and lowest points of the recent price movement.
* Draw Fibonacci retracement levels: Create Fibonacci retracement levels between the swing high and low.
* Look for potential entry points: Consider buying near the 38.2% or 50% retracement levels if the price shows signs of bullish reversal.
Caution: Using Fibonacci retracements alone can be risky. It's essential to combine them with other technical indicators for confirmation.
Break of Structure and Retest
* Identify a clear structure: Determine the recent price action's higher highs and higher lows (uptrend) or lower highs and lower lows (downtrend).
* Wait for a break of structure: Observe if the price breaks above a resistance level (uptrend) or below a support level (downtrend).
* Look for a retest: After the break, wait for a pullback to the broken level (now acting as support or resistance) for a potential entry.
Example: If the price breaks below the 0.65500 support level and then retraces back to this level, it could be a potential entry point for a short position.
Additional Considerations
* Risk Management: Always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.
* Timeframes: Analyze multiple timeframes to confirm trends and potential entry points.
* Other Indicators: Consider using additional indicators like RSI, MACD, or Bollinger Bands to support your analysis.
Remember: Trading involves risks. It's crucial to develop your trading strategy and manage your risk effectively.
Would you like to delve deeper into any specific aspect of this analysis or explore other potential entry points based on different indicators?
Top 4 Price Action Signals For Beginners. Best Trading Entries
I will reveal 4 accurate price action signals that even a newbie trader will manage to easily recognize.
Watch carefully because these signals alone will help you to make a lot of money trading Forex, Gold or any other financial market.
Change of Character
Change of character is a strong signal that indicates a trend violation and a highly probable market reversal.
In a bearish trend, the change of character will be a bullish violation of the level of the last lower high.
Check how the change of character accurately indicated a bullish reversal on EURJPY pair.
In a bullish trend, a bearish violation of the level of the last higher low will signify a change of character and a highly probable bearish reversal.
Bearish violation of the last higher low level and a change of character on USDJPY gave a perfect bearish signal.
Breakout of Consolidation
No matter what time frame you trader, you probably noticed that quite often the markets become weak and start consolidating .
Most of the time, the prices tend to consolidate within horizontal ranges.
Breakout of one of the boundaries of the range can give you a strong trading signal.
Check how the price acted on GBPCHF.
The breakout of the support/resistance of the range always gave an accurate signal, no matter what was the preceding direction of the market.
Trend Line Breakout of a Pattern
There are a lot of trend line based bullish and bearish price action patterns: the ranges, the wedges, the triangles, the channels.
What unites these patterns is that the violation of the trend line of the pattern gives a strong trading signal.
A bullish breakout of a resistance line of a falling wedge, a bullish flag and a symmetrical triangle will give us a strong bullish signal.
Just look how EURUSD bounced after a bullish breakout of a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern.
While a bearish breakout of a support line of a rising wedge, a bearish flag or a symmetrical triangle will indicate a highly probable bearish continuation
Here is how a bearish breakout of the support of a symmetrical triangle formation helped me to predict a bearish movement on Gold.
Neckline breakout of a horizontal pattern
There are a lot of different price action patterns.
One element that unites many of them is the so-called horizontal neckline.
In bearish price action patterns like double top, head and shoulders, descending triangle, triple top, etc. a horizontal neckline represents a support from where buyers are placing their orders.
Bearish violation of such a neckline will be considered to be an important sign of strength of the sellers and a strong bearish signal.
In bullish price action patterns like double bottom, inverted head and shoulders pattern, ascending triangle, cup & handle, etc. a horizontal neckline represents a resistance where sellers a placing their orders.
Its bullish violation will a strong bullish signal.
Below is a perfect example how a bullish breakout of a neckline of an inverted head and shoulders pattern on Bitcoin triggered a strong bullish rally.
Here is how a breakout of a neckline of a double top on USDCAD confirmed an initiation of a bearish correctional movement.
The most important thing about these price action signals is that it is very simple to recognize them. You should learn the basic price action rules and a couple of classic price action patterns, it will be more than enough for you to identify confirmed bullish and bearish reversals on any time frame and any trading instrument.
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Crude oil big bullish read the caption Crude oil will go up
Big bullish trend as you see As shipping costs and supply chains get disrupted alongside higher oil prices, all of this risks stoking the inflation fire for the time being. In turn, major central banks will have to be rather careful in pushing too hard on any disinflation narrative.
For now, the overall impact is still rather minimal I would say so central banks can still get away with whatever they want. But if the situation in the Red Sea is one that persists for a longer period, it could slow down the speed at which inflation returns towards the desired level that markets and policymakers are hoping for.
USDJPY INDUCED SWING SHORTOn our HTF we have a clear bearish bias after liquidity pool has been swept and retraction trend coming to end with a supply rejection zone giving us a confirmation for the short... in addition, fundamental view, we have a weaker USD giving us a sure entry assurance for our swing short position.
XAUUSD to continue downtrendPrice just tested 200 MA in D1 time frame and this area is also a strong resistance in past, overall fundamentals also indicates strong USD combined with a strong barish engulfing candle just 2 cadles back. This all scenario indicates gold has not yet finished its bearish move and will further go bearish.
Sell XAUUSD around 1842.00 , TP: 1790.00 , SL: 1865.00
GBPJPY(D)Hello, am so happy with GJ it finally broke the major monthly trendline, it retested on the small time frames and is up 158.739 I predicted this weeks back there are links below how i came to this conclusion. GOD IS SO GOOD! I came to this conclusion solely using market structure and other confluences. I wish you happy trading although we meant see a price reversal coming soon with the BEARS. But as always trade what you see not what you think and above all ask GOD for wisdom, He will show you
Share with me your views.
EURCHF top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
AUDJPY top-down analysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDCNH top-down analysis, UPDATEDHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Trade Planning - How to Trade PlanThis video explains how to effectively trade plan to limit your risk and to maximize your gains. When it comes to Risk Management and Trade Planning, it's important to maintain a clear mind about the possibility of the asset your assessing going in either bullish or bearish direction.
Furthermore, this video explains some ideas on how and where to place stop losses based upon entry confirmations and provides insights about position managing your trades as they develop into a winner.
I hope you find this video informative and hope you use this video to your best advantage with your day-to-day trading activities.
Thanks for watching. Always remember to trade safe - trade well.
Regards,
Michael Harding
RISK DISCLAIMER
Information and opinions contained with this video are for educational purposes only and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
The power of supply and demand imbalancesIt never ceases to amaze me how powerful bigger timeframe imbalances are and how price can react to them no matter how old these imbalances are. There is a clear example of a very strong supply imbalance on the British Pound versus New Zealand Dollar (GBPNZD) Forex cross pair.
There is a very strong monthly supply imbalance created around 2.09 price level last May 2016. It took 44 months for price to retrace to it, that’s quite a lot of time. This is the type of imbalance you don’t want to trade against. These imbalances are not support and resistance, supply and demand imbalances have nothing to do with support and resistance even though some times imbalances contain classic support and resistance prive levels used by so many traders.
Take a look at GBPNZD Forex cross pair monthly timeframe supply and demand technical analysis below. If you are trading intraday or even scalping Forex cross pairs, you will be losing all of your trades since you won’t be aware of the strength of the imbalance that took control.
Taking a look at the bigger timeframe imbalances will add extra context to Forex trading strategy and will keep you alerted of such strong imbalances that could cause havoc in your trading account.
Trading intraday and scalping Forex is fine for those doing it, there is no doubt that trading lower timeframes can be profitable, but we highly recommend you to keep track of strong imbalances on the bigger timeframes because if you do, you will be avoiding many losses. If you were long biased on GBP/NZD Forex cross and you had some losses, now you know why you had those losses.
AUDUSD ANALYSIS [Bullish Failures] 9th January 2020OANDA:AUDUSD
AUDUSD is in a downtrend with multiple previous false bullish breakouts.
We have just experienced one of these, leading me to believe that the bulls are weak as the bears previously drove price down regardless of the bullish breakout momentum.
I expect (IF WE BREAK THE SUPPORT LEVEL) to see AUDUSD dropping lower. Although, we may see a correction yet.