EURNZD Retracing on HTF so use strong and fresh supply for sell EURNZD Retracing on HTF so use strong and fresh supply for sell orders until hit the Daily Fresh demand zone
Forextradingsnacks
Monday morning arm chair quarterback analysis Another Forex trading snack.
Well like that the market does what it wants too! The market is never wrong!
So what went wrong with my take on the SPX and what I was seeing in the markets? Nothing! Nothing at all. News hit about potential positives with the Covid 19 virus... well traders and algo’s that have had 11 years of bullishness in the markets fueled by the Fed and government manipulation along with near zero rates and you get these kind of emotional moves. Thing is emotional fire doesn’t last.
I can see several targeted resistance zones for the SPX on it sudden straight line move. Depending on the markets move and more importantly the NY close of the day. So here is what I’m seeing as Some possibilities....
We gapped higher to day Monday and we could just as easily Have a reversal Tuesday to fill the gap again and continue the grind.
Next we could get a daily close above the 61.8 which technically would be a positive for farther moves higher to maybe the 200 day SMA at 2975-3000
We could get a farther move higher to the 124 or the 1.618 Fib extensions from recent highs to lows. That zone is around 3050-3075 ish area.
Next we could get to the Fib re trace of the 78% at 3130-3150 from the measured move of the all time high to the recent virus low.
So what one has the highest probability of the greatest resistance to current emotions in this move?
Side note the AUDUSD which had tracked the SPX really well of late is under preforming.
Full disclosure here I tried to short AUDUSD But was caught on the wrong side of market emotions.
Don’t get me wrong! I favor shorting SPX because emotional straight line moves favor a reversal to a higher degree then continuing on a higher On a straight line move. But that’s my opinion.
Offer your ideas, views, comments, or criticism, all are welcome here.
If you don’t make dust in the markets then you will certainly eat dust.
All the best in your trades.
As usual this isn’t trading advice, but intended fir educational uses or exchanging trading ideas with other free thinkers. Trade at your own risk.
EURAUD and the risk on and off playHere is another Forex Trading Snack.
To go along with my stock risk on or off trading view, here is my favorite Forex pair that matches closely to my stock trading view. Of corse the two instruments trade inversely to each other.
My main strategy for this weeks market open is to follow the recent up channel the pair has been trading in. The downside has been limited mostly due to the upside limited moves to AUDUSD ( which also moves along with the S&P 500 and or news events or risks involving China trade.
Stocks and the AUDUSD have stoped recent moves higher at the 61.8 Fib levels and have been grinding around making overlapping moves with lower highs and lower lows. Hardly a trending move. Very much a grinding around moving market.
Looking at the 2H chart I see a smaller EW 5 wave pattern Developing with a posable completion at up channel trend line.
My strategy isn’t to try to trade short at channel trend top, but to start looking at my longer view possibilities of the next move and posable breakout from this channel. There is no surprise that the AUDUSD also has a inverse EW pattern on the same time frame. On AUDUSD I’m a sell the rallies trader currently just as I am on the S&P 500. The exact opposite on EURAUD.
Just one traders opinion. Please form your own opinions and trading views and or strategies. This post isn’t advice on trading. Trade accordingly to your own risk tolerances.
In trading you either make dust or you will certainly eat dust.
All the best in your trading.
SPX ( S&P 500 ) risk investors on or off trade.Here is another trading Snack.
Ever sense the stock market pushed to it last all-time-high, followed by risk off fears of the pandemic, we’ve only challenged the re trace move bacK to the 61.8 Fib level and now are grinding around.
With zero or close to zero rates in most of the world, money managers who for the most part have only seen for the last 11 years a by the dip strategy, now are managing from the point of stocks are the only real game in town. This kind of mind set only feeds the fire of a grinding market till the next great big head line.
To some degree investors are also looking towards the nation reopening up after the virus appears to be under control from spreading farther. But what will the effects of the nation closing the economy have on future outlooks and business planing?
Most of the virus number that will effect investor short sided views aren’t in the mix yet. Mostly those numbers just started to show up, or in some headlines are the best guesses of our investor gurus in our present times. Buffet one of the greatest investors said the other day, now is not the time to buy! In fact his investment firm has been actively selling and raising cash levels.
So what is the trade?
In my opinion ask yourself what is the driving force in pushing stocks higher over the 61.8 level and then challenge those all-time-highs again? If you can not find a reasonable driver to that possibility, then the higher probability trade is sell the rallies.
Good statistical plan... so what can go wrong!? Another Forex Trading Snack.
My law of big candles does fail and has a 33% failure rate. But that doesn’t mean you can not learn to bend the odds in your favor, along with putting you on the road to greater successes in the future.
In my previous post on EURAUD I posted up a trading strategy. My law of large candle strategy. And I don’t want to get people thinking all I need to do is look for big candles and there-in-lies The secrets to success and money will rain down into your trading account!
Trading is the hardest easy money you’ll ever try to make!
Just a fact!
Have a look at this AUDUSD same setup as my EA trade. The EA trade made over 100 pips and this one lost 30 pips. Why? Well, I did say that this strategy has a 33% failure rate according to my trade rules and statistics I’ve been keeping on the setup. So what gives, what’s wrong with the strategy if anything?
As in all markets, the market is never wrong! The market will give you head fakes, the market is manipulated by bigger money players, my stop might have been to small, my entry might have been to tight, but most of all—it’s impossible to figure into the mix future volatility no matter if that volatility is 5 minutes from now or 5 hours or 5 days. It’s just impossible!
As a trader take statistical outcomes into account before you change setup strategies or even trading strategies. Jumping around to fast from one thing to another all the while looking for success will have you passing up those diamonds in the ruff that will produce consistent positive results over time.
Volatility happens!
Learn from your efforts and stats you keep.
Trading takes as much practice in trading a strategy as it does with everything in life you expect to improve at.
In trading you either make dust or you will eat dust!
All the best in your trades.
This post isn’t trading advice, nor is it anything you should be trading without personally excepting all risk of loss involved with trading.
In the very short term here is a long trade idea on EAHere is another Forex Trading Snack.
This is an example that I saw in the market this morning ( my morning ) and my trade setup as I took it, long with my thoughts as I planed it out. Price action certainly has changed while I was slowly typing this post. Just an example of how I trade a larger true average range currency pair. The plan here is to trade long in a short term trade but I believe counter trend in a longer market view.
Let’s face it trading a pair that has also this kind of daily true range isn’t easy. I mean why risk more then you have to. Right? In my book I try to risk less even though I could live with that kind of daily true range.
So here it is in my view! This isn’t advice, just a guy who risks his own money in search of making a bit more then what has been risked. In other words I trade! And that’s the life of a trader.
On my 1H chart I see the 21 SMA line ( in black ) bending upwards, and price has challenged the 89 SMA ( in red ) but pulled back. Here is where most would use the low as a stop setting point if the entry was to go long, but that’s not in my plan.
I use the law of extra large candles. What that is I look for a longer candle ( up or down, green or red ) the kind of candle I believe is where a larger amount of money has been placed compared to the previous 5-10 or 20 candles. I quickly place a retracemen study on that candles body or even the next few candles after that one—-what I’m looking for is a good pullback, a tradable one that also has good support or resistances to then trade with a measured but well defined risk zone. One where the stop is but a small part of the daily true range.
So on my chart post you can see I really like the red box as my buy zone, under the red box as my stop area. But looking for a break out over the top pink line. A line that shows me where previous price action has on the way down had slowed with momentum and has capped upward movements, indicating a defensive line where the bears have stepped in pushing price back down. That’s the battle ground! Breakout above that pink line and some bears will cover and take profits if they have them. Thus pushing price farther and still higher.
The large somewhat oversized candle shows a shift in the short term momentum and direction but better still it shows where the money entered into the price action and so in my opinion a tradable zone to then target a set up.
All of this is just one tool in the traders tool box and just an example of a current real life in the market trading ideas and how one trader looks at a strategy of trading this market.
As always a trading plan need statistical evidence of past price action to then develop a statistical but personal edge in trading. And this only helps develop an emotional control to what could go wrong. Because in trading risk is the only controllable thing we as traders we can control along with emotional or none emotional decisions we make.
In trading you either make dust or you will eat dust!
All the best in your trading.
If you decide to trade any ideas always remember that the risk is all yours. Just because I trade a setup or as I have posted doesn’t mean that’s right for you to do the same.
AUDJPY wedge play for 4/16-17/20Here is another trading snack!
AUDJPY has created this really nice bearish wedge pattern. In my opinion there is two good ways to play this pattern. As always patterns can and often do break in the opposite direction from ones own analysis or market bias’s. Having said that, trade if you must with your own risk tolerances. ‘‘Tis also isn’t trading advice, but my opinion on how I’m trading this pattern.
What I’d like to see is a retest if the upper trend line. It may or may not happen. I’ve set orders in the upper red box to go short with stops just over the red box. But because I suspect a break down in price. I’ve also set sell orders just below the lower red box, the one just under the lower trend lie—with again stops just over the top of that same red box. The green boxes are targets and TP zones.
Ideally I’d like a retest if the upper trend line and then a break down to my lower orders. If that happens I’d move stops upon the lower orders filling to my upper orders if filled. Those stops would go to my BE point or my upper average price. Once price has moved another 20 pips or do I’d move all stops to my BE on total orders average price and wait on my targets.
The strategy is to put on as many orders as my trade plan allows while limiting my risk, and while allowing for the market to move with breathing room to this consolidation pattern.
In recap. The upper orders might not get filled. But a breakdown will still get me in on the idea. If the upper orders get filled but price action breaks higher, I’ve limited my risk to my accepted levels. But if the strategy goes as planed then this idea should double in size as far as trading lots, but limit my risk to a level as if I was only trading 1/2 the size in lots.
As always, you either make dust in trading or you will eat dust!
Again this is only an educational post on how I’m choosing to trade this idea. It is not trading advice!
All the best in your own trades.
OIL... New lows after the oil war has ended??Another Trading Snack!
Using my weekly chart I’ve formed this oil trading bias for some time. That and I deeply respect the EW 5 wave patterns on longer time charts. Let me explain...
Yes that’s right! I suggest that new lows could come in price action on the WTI even though the oil war had come to an end as some pundits were reporting in the news.
I have always suspected the price action was due to Covad 19 and the global economic slow down due to a large part brought on by politicians of the day and their policies. I’m not arguing those political policies as being good or bad ideas. I’m observing that due to a large part because of those policies the globes economical state has been the cause of the slowing in oil demand. This in my view has produced the kind of price action we have now.
The odds are in favor in setting a new oil price low, then a meaningful bounce off new lows. All the while with current monetary policies the globe over inflation is coming— and if or when inflation comes, oil price action will rip higher from current depreciation like current prices.
My tactic and strategy is to start buying oil, maybe still today I’ll dip my toe in, but my targeted price to a buying zone is $13-18 on the WTI.
If I step in today towards the markets NY close I’ll be within or just under $1.00 of the 2020 lows and very close to the 2004 lows as well.
As always, you either make dust or you eat dust in trading.
All the best in your trades.
Note: this is just my trading idea! It is NOT trading advice! Trade your own plan and using your own risk tolerances.
Oil war over but the virus seems to still control price action Many seemed to believe with the oil war over and the 10 million cut in supply that this would’ve caused price action to rise at the next opportunity. I mean Algo’s would have driven price higher off this kind of news right?
The worlds industrialized nations have been filling their tanks as oil was falling—now that the world oil production agreements have come to agree to cut current production the real question is, was it enough, and how do those countries heavily dependent on oil put more oil into the already full tank when the virus caused demand caused it to drop off in such a large way?
Everyone is hoping that oil demand and the virus slowed global economies will quickly bounce back to what was before. So there the rub for investors. Will it? And to what degree will a bounce back look like?
Personally I’d like to see a bounce in oil. I also see a huge opportunity at current prices seeing now that the oil war is over and price action is little changed today. Seeing still lower prices is posable with this kind of reaction to the ending of the oil war, but more importantly lower prices to me means a even greater buying opportunity. After all one only needs to ask one’s self, how low will oil prices go when the global economy needs it so bad? Sure one can argue what about green energy taking from oil demand and causing it to go lower still. Or at best for the near term slowing demand farther net alone farther into the future? Wouldn’t that also contain oil prices?
In my view with ultra cheep oil prices this will cause trouble for green energy And slow it growth substantially. A better case for green energy is when oil prices are above 70 dollars—but with the global economy getting the kick in the nuts from covad 19 I think OPEC needs to cut production farther still to drive prices past the 33-36 dollar range. Sure all of the stimulus packages will cause future inflation and a rise of oil prices certainly, but the heavy cost to green energy will rise as well. In short the global economy needs oil and price of oil will be dependent on it demand.
Long and short of it is in my view, oil prices will not go to zero! So with every decline in price from right here ( around 21-22 dollars as I wright this post ) I’d be a buyer on dips, and a partial seller on rips, but with the idea to be a longer term holder of oil. You see the last time oil saw these kind of prices the WTI was around 20 dollars in 2003-4 and then popped up past 100 dollars in a few Short years later. I’m not saying it’s going to happen like that again. But in setting the odds what is the likelihood of...
Oil going to zero?
Oil still declining in prices to maybe a new low price?
Or oil climbing some, then trading around a range and then climbing more?
I see these questions as 0%, 50 / 50 %, and more then 50% respectively as my odd setting. With an impossibility of oil staying so cheep in the long term.
Plan your trades and trade your plans.
In trading you either make dust or you eat dust!
All the best my trading friends.
This post is my views and my ideas to how I see oil prices in the future. It is not trading advice! Trade if you will with your own risk tolerances and by using your own personalized trading plans.
All the best to you and your trades.
4/12/20 AUDJPY flying high now??Here is another Forex Trading Snack.
A Friend on twitter said it like this. “With everything the FED has done plus the fiscal stimulus package one would think that markets will stabilize first, then soar.” Bellehos
I agree, In stead we hit a bottom and started in a V shape Stock market recovery. The reason IMO as well as many others is leverage. It is an opinion built of the belief that the global economy is / was / and indeed still may be massively leveraged to some degree. So in my view all of this shapes my bias to be very bearish on stocks.
This also leaves me looking at currencies that move in tune with the risk on / risk off stock market movements. One such currency is AUDJPY.
At the bottom of my chart you can see a inverted head & shoulders pattern ( indicated in pink ) along with a divergent RSI reading. This pattern compleat At a down sloping channel top trend line by breaking past it, then retesting it, before moving much higher along with similar moves in the stock market.
Currently it’s very close to its 61.8 FIB retracement, the same with stocks as in the S&P 500. AUDJPY also in recent days has shown signs of slowing momentum, and again RSI is diverging. With price action well above the 21 SMA and the 21 is well above the 89 SMA, simply makes my case for at least a pull back in the making—or something much bigger.
My trade plan is to take small shots at going short as this pair makes new highs, with a over all target to going short if or when it tests the big figure of 70.
All the best in your trades. Trade your plan and plan your trades accordingly to your risk tolerances. This is not trade advice, but presented as a form of how I look at the markets and thus should be used as educational materials.
In FX trading you either make dust or you eat dust. All the best.
1/15/2020 USDNOK ( management of the trade ) Another Forex Trading Snack.
From my original posting of the short opportunity that I saw in USDNOK, my tactics have always been in building a position up to take advantage of my longer term bias for the pair. The market will do what’s its going to do and all we can do is catch a ride if we can.
Newer traders might just catch a great entry point but only get taken out for a few pips at best. Usually new traders get all excited to see a trade move into a profit zone, but this caused beginners paralyses in taking good trading practices action far to slowly. However when price bounces back up towards entry price or worse, at this point of the new traders cycle of trading, the new trader tends to take action far to fast in the hopes to avoid trading pain, losses, or an attempt to greatly limit losses. Instead lack of action or trade planing have limited their overall success.
Take this chart view for instants. It shows 3 trades I set up, 2 that were filled and the last one just setup and stands still open at the time of this posting. Each trade was taken with multiple lots per order. In this way a trader can take one lot off to take partial profits while allowing the other to run.
If you only place one lot orders— you are at the mercy of the markets to either give you a profit or a loss. Once you decide to take profits you’re out of the trade. Sure the market could bounce back in your favor to re enter, but just as easy it could keep going. On the flip side a new traders mindset could say if I trade 2 lots I’m taking more of a risk to my trading account. This is also true! However if you place your trades close to confluences, indicators and support / resistance levels / trend lines.... what ever your edge is, you have well defined entry points with limited risk points.
Take this trade setup. My original entry had 100 pips of risk. The first entry moved in my favor and I had a hard take partial profits at 100 pips. So without moving stops on the remaining lot it turned out taking a partial profit eliminating all risk on the remainder of the trade balance.
My bias didn’t change so finding the next attempt at a new entry was easy. Next lower red box, is my take the trade zone as well as where the extreme stop would be. When setting up the second entry and stop I also moved the first balance trade stop as well to the same place. The second entry had 130 pip stop. Because of stop placements and the first trades partial profits taken, the over all total risk take was only 130 pips even though, if the second trade was filled the total lots on this trade would be 3 lots.
1 original lot profit taken +100 pips
1 lot from original entry with a +30 stop
2 lots second entry with 130 pip each or 260 total stop
Over all total risk / profit once second order was filled 130 total pips with 3 total lots.
Again the markets moved in my favor. I took again partial profits of 300 pips this time, leaving 2 remaining lots on my trade idea. Now moving my stops down to the second over all high price on the remaining lots, I’ve eliminated all risk on the remaining 2 lots as well have locked in a 400 pips of profits. Well at the time of the post my 3rd entry has not yet been filled. This 3rd entry will be 3 lots with a 125 pip stop per lot or a total of 375 pips for my total risk. If stops get triggered I still take home 25 pips total profits. Previously locked in 400 - 375 on 3rd entry if stopped out = + 25 pips.
If and when the 3rd orders get filled I plan to allow this trade idea to ride out to my longer term profit zone. The only management of this trade will be moving the over all stop of this trade for all lots. This will by moving stops to lock in profits on all lots of the trade. If the 3rd part isn’t filled the trade management is still the same on the 2 lots still running.
Each currency pair has it own need for different stop sizes according to its own daily average moving range.
As traders we must except that the only part of trading that we can control is our own level of risk taken. With this example I think I’ve shown how to trade a longer term idea while reducing risk without taking yourself totally out of the position until the market takes you out. We should alway be looking to allow your winners to run. Manage your trade ideas to eliminate taking a large loss and your trade plan should include allowing the trade idea to run as far as the market will allow it to run while reducing the overall need to personally manage the trade position. Once a trade gets to a risk free trade with all risk of loss to my trading account eliminating, I just wait fir the market to get to my profit targets or my managed stop levels. Just let the market take you out one way or the other.
As always this is only for educational purposes only.
All the best in your trading.
Trading currencies is the hardest easy money you’ll ever try to make. Plan your trades and trade your plans.
1/14/2020 USDNOKImpulsive moves are what we are looking for. Right? I mean those are the moves that have the biggest bang for the trading risk buck! However looking around the charts sometimes you just run into a move that has already happened. Sad, but it’s true all to often.
Opportunity could just be hiding in plain sight though.
This is when I look for a EW ( Elliott Wave ) 5 Wave pattern. I’m no EW wave trader, but learned to spot those 5 wave patterns. First EW 5 waves are moves that happen in impulsive moves and more importantly, they’re mostly an ending move pattern followed by a counter move. A very reliable pattern with a very high percentage of these kind of out comes. Second the 4 wave is usually drawn out over a longer time and the move to the ending 5 wave is more sudden. This gives time to get in on the action even though most of the impulsive move happened when you were looking right instead of left. Spotting these on the daily or 4 hour charts is what I trade if they’re seen.
USDNOK is currently in what I think is a EW 4th wave ( see the attached chart)!and about to go down more into the 5Th. In addition to the daily chart, taking a look into the 4H we can see a rectangle consolidating price action just under the 200 day daily moving average. Should this break down lower price according to EW pattern it should make a new low. I’m looking for 8.75-8.70
From it current price of 8.87-8.88 a very nice move indeed if and when it happens.
I’ve placed no orders out to see if they get filled over my night.
Remember yo use personal appropriate risk for you and your size of trading account. Because you know, Forex Trading is the hardest easy money you’ll try to make. All the best in your trading.
1/13/2020 AUDJPY Another Forex Trading Snack.
AUDJPY on my weekly chart it shows an interesting point in price action. Sitting just below a multi year trend line ( a trend line going back to 2018 ) this down slopping pink trend line should provide a cap in price. Usually price action taking a crack at a multi year line doesn’t break through on the first try.
My bias is to set up shorts at or around the 77.00 however price is stalling at the 76.00 currently. Moving down to the 4H chart
I can see a short term range setting up between the top 76.00 and the bottom 75.40-50 as the zones to break for who may take short term control between the buyers or sellers.
Short term or longer term trades have some planing to do. My bias is still on the longer side of things and have placed short orders at and around 77.00 stops just above that. For me that a good well defined risk zone. For you all... well you can decide for yourselves.
Remember Forex trading is the hardest easy money you’ll ever make! Plan your trades and trade your plans accordingly to your risk comfort zone.
All the best in your trades.
1/12/2020 USDJPY Another Forex Trading Snack!
I know! It’s been lagging the moves of the S&P stock index when it’s been a great risk on or risk off dance partner. Where has the partnership gone?
This 109.70 resistance zone has held price from advancing when stocks have been screaming higher throughout the Christmas rally. I don’t believe in straight line moves move on for ever! In fact stock moves of late is in my view a straight line move, and way over done! However stocks or Forex pairs don’t always move off my wishes, feelings, or even my personal picks for trade entries. Ok! They never consult my opinions before moving where they do, the market just does what it does. The market is never wrong. Well I’m wrong a lot! Just being honest here in a joking way.
Take a look at this weekly chart while your smiling from my joking, while taking a look at this triangle it has been building ever sense 2015.
I’m looking to place a stop buy just over the resistance top on USDJPY around 109.70. What I’m seeing is a stop hunt and there are plenty of stops above that resistance zone ( pink line )
Gray colored channel also points to the weekly triangle top line that is close to the 110.50. That’s right I feel a stop hunt could break this one over resistance and at least up to the round number 110.00 or the weekly triangle ( black top trend line ) 110.50 ish.
I have formed this opinion and trade idea off the way it bounces off the 200 day moving average lighter blue line and the most recent shorter term swing low. Being that it’s behind the stocks moves of late, this adds fuel to the idea. Throw into the mix that the official China trade deal first stage signing is supposed to take place on 1/15/2020.... that’s this week—I can see stocks moving still higher and just maybe a USDJPY breakout and old fashion stop hunt.
All the best in your trades.
As always, trading Forex is the easiest hard money you’ll ever make. Plan your trades and trade your plans with your individual risk management.
1/12/2020 XAUUSD GoldHere is another Forex Trading Snack.
From our breakout trade more then a week ago I’m still holding onto my very bullish bias. It has pulled back to its longer term flag top pattern ( indicated by the horizontal red line ) a shorter term bullish battle zone with the lower 1500 round number being the bullish OH crap zone!! This is a free ride trade for the idea or those who might have traded along. My longer term targets for latter on this year is still firmly at 1700-1800 but I would love to add if we get another dip towards lower ranges around the zone in the earlier part of this post.
As always, all the best in your trades.
Landscape view daily chart.
Always remember, Forex Trading is the hardest easy money you’ll ever make!! Plan your own trades, then trade your plan with your individual risk management.
NZDCAD EW 5 wave ideaWelcome to another Forex Trading Snack.
NZDCAD looks good for a possible EW ( Elliott Wave ) 5 wave pattern on the hourly or the 2 hour and also in the 4 hour charts. Sometimes patterns are much more clear on a certain timeframe, but at times like this, it fairly clear in multiple times.
Friday trade was wild with NFP news and price action that followed. Yet NZDCAD set up a nice pattern and along with using RSI it appears to have put in a short term top and now we can look for a 3 wave ( a, b, c, wave decline )
My game plan is looking for a bounce higher into Asian trade yet for the top around .8500 to hold as the high. There is a chance for a new top to form and still not upset this pattern. Assuming the top is in. I’m looking for price to go to or around .8475 and have that as a good selling point placing my stops just above the highs. My targets are .8400-.8375
That would be risking 25 pips to try to make a 100
A good risk reward play if I may say so.
In forex trading you either make dust or you eat dust!
If you trade any idea you automatically assume all risk of loss to your own trading account. No trade idea is a sure thing. Just because I maybe trading this idea doesn’t mean it will result in profits made or that our outcomes will be the same good, bad, or indifferent.
All the best in your trades.
EURUSD scalping patternsIt’s not all that often I get to post up a scalping plan.
So here is another Forex Trading Snack!
EURUSD broke above it channel it had been running in for about a week and one-half. Although it seems tired a bit for today. It’s still grinding higher. Although I can count a EW 5 wave in the 15M I would suspect pullbacks to be bought the closer we get to 1.1050-75
Longer term I’m seeing this one marching on to 1.1200-50 top of a very long term wedge pattern that has been forming for over a year now. With headline news risk, I think if we get the chance to short some on the approach of 1.1150 it could retest short term channel top line or even break lower just off of short term profit taking in front of the weekend. Remember this is counter trend. Trade light
If you trade the risk is all yours.
In trading you either make dust or you eat dust.
All the best my trading warriors.
So trading is headline driven... If you have been trading GBP pairs you’ve know all about the tape bombs or headline whiplash moves. It’s hard to get in a trade when a headline can just drop or jump by 100 or more pips regardless of technical setups. But we’ve somewhat known the with Brexit and any of the possibilities there of, things were going to get volatility rolling.
So here is another Forex Trading Snack.
At first I was caught wrong sided, then managed to get all of my losses back off a pull back trade, then missed getting in long before the next tape bomb hit... blah, blah, blah! I know! All of the should have, and could have trades, that didn’t hit!
This brought my attention to the DXY and patterns I’ve been following for some time. Well today the pattern started to break down. Here is the landscape view of my DXY
It is very similar to the EURUSD just inverse.
Last Friday I had taken a very small long play on the EURUSD at the 1.10 level. Manage to move stops to BE ( Break even, no risk on trade ) but I’m looking to add to this position.
If the DXY is breaking down it should test the 97 area, where its up channel lower trend line is currently. If or when that should happen, it would be reasonable to think the EURUSD would also test its upper trend line of a descending wedge pattern it has been in, and that is around 1.12-35 ish
So long as EURUSD stays above the 1.1030 area recent resistance level I see the odds shifting to it going higher towards that 1.12.
There is one question I have with the DXY index though. Just how much of it’s recent moves have only been due to GBP pairs, because they have really moved where EURUSD which is over 50% of the index hasn’t moved all that much in comparison.
If you trade any idea, the risk is all yours.
In trading you either make dust or you eat dust.
All the best my trader warriors.
Straight line move strategy II GBPJPY Well to say the least Friday’s move was a surprise. I mean back to back multiple hundred pip moves, WOW!
The market is never wrong! So yes, why not such a moving pattern? Why not another day or two like the last. It’s all possible.
Well here is how I took the challenge. And here is another Forex Trading Snack.
Just because you lose a trade and take a losses, it just isn’t time to throwaway the strategy just yet. I would hope your strategy or trading plans would have some statistical statistics behind the plan in the first place.
When the odds are in your favor and the trade isn’t working, what does your personality say to do? Mine says play the odds.
This weeks open and boom! Straight from the start and the pair couldn’t push higher. What can not go higher must go the other way. I took the short play again. Just a bit lighter in size. A bit tighter of stops... You see on Friday’s trade I took a bigger size thinking the move was very large and in a straight line higher, yet the market kept squeezing higher, ending the day at the highs. My question all weekend was...
How many people trading to the short side are left in the trade?
On the flip side, how many more traders are looking to buy still more driving price higher?
It is just this kind of thinking that has everyone on edge a bit with their risk capital, and which side would have better odds in setting up new positions.
My strategy from the onset has been one born of which side has the better odds of moving In that one direction. After day one’s oversized move the odds were tilting ever more towards a reversal with every pip higher it moved.
That was the mindset behind the trade and how it was setTing up at this new weeks open. So I took the same trade again, just smaller is size so it would be less of having a farther risk of loss. But I also took profits faster then usual.
So with a profit of 120 i was all the way out. I mean, I took a 100 pip loss on Friday, just makes sense to take a break even or a slight profit and set out and see where the market wants go from here.
The trade was get short at 137.60 and I got out at 136.40
Taking a 120 pip gain.
It’s not perfect or even a trading idea of perfection. It’s just playing the odds with every trading idea. Good traders trade the odds and are consistently adjusting for the ever changing odds of the markets moves. This is always my goal, to improve myself in odds making and the markets moves.
Here is the landscape view.
If you trade, the risk of loss is all yours.
If you trade you either make dust or you will eat dust.
All the best my trading warriors.
GBPJPY straight to the bankYou’ve all head the story of the Bulls, bears , and pigs..., you’ve herd that one before I’m sure!
Bulls make money!
Bears make money!
But pigs get slaughtered!!
Here is another Forex Trading Snack.
GBPJPY along with I think every GBP pair ripped higher today in the markets. Good news on the Brexit front, or just good rumors to spark traders into positioning for what they think the future holds.
Should a Brexit deal get done the pair will squeeze higher, a lot higher!! But with moves like today, some 3 X the 15 day average range of the pair it begs to short it.
First; with a move like today the odds of it retracing some of the move is higher then more of a straight line move higher. Just my opinion anyway.
Second; we are heading into Friday’s trade and the last day before the weekend—do you think the bulls are going to hold their positions over the weekend? Is there a reasonable chance for some news to bomb over the weekend to then take away some of the move anyway? If you think so, what are the odds??
Third; usually after the New York market closes for the day we see a small pull back from the days move and then an extension of that move early into Asian markets open. It’s just an observation on my part. GBPJPY’s pull back after that crazy run higher was small by any standards. Again what are the odds, the chances, the likelihood... or anyway you’d like to put it... what direction has the greater chance of happening in your opinion?
Those are just some of the things I think about in looking at a straight line move of this magnitude.
What’s the trade?
I’m looking to take shorts ( to sell it ) if and when we get a pop up in price towards the 135.00 my stop placement is totally based on ones own risk tolerances. My targets would be if my orders get filled, I’d like to see a pullback to 133.50-1.3400 or better.
I have already traded it to the short side from NY market highs down to 134.05 banking 40 pips per lot traded. But like I say, I believe if it should pop higher it will be short lived. Bulls will be looking to take at least some profits on this move before the weekend. My trade idea is looking to take advantage of traders repositioning because of the straight line move higher.
If you chose to trade this idea the risk is all yours to assume. This is strictly my own idea and shouldn’t be taken as trading advice, but as only a look at how I trade the markets. In this way you can gain some insight and or some good training as to how other traders trade.
You either make dust in the markets or you will eat dust.
All the best my trading warriors.
Revised EURCAD pattern & trade ideaTo say trading Forex / currencies can be frustrating, is an understatement. To be a good trader, we must shake it off and get busy searching for high probability trades worthy of risking our risk capital.
So here is another Forex Trading Snack.
Earlier ( what I mean is a few days ago ) I pointed out a nice EW ( Elliott Wave ) 5 wave pattern developing in my opinion. But as we all know the market is never wrong! And so as traders we much change with the ebb and flow of price action.
To be good at trading and or to be always looking to improve our consistency in trade results, we need to maintain an open mind as well be open to changing our opinions or views.
Enough about that! I still see EURCAD in a sort of EW 5 wave movement or pattern. For the past days sense I posted my first idea to current time of this post...
( See my pasted idea of EURCAD linked to this post.)
We have seen this pair in a consolation from it near term highs just after the manufacturing ISM reported news. I fully expected the pair to make a 3 wave drop which usually happens following an EW 5 wave pattern. Instead we got this consolation. This leads me to believe we could still set a 5Th wave high and that this pattern isn’t completed just yet. I can also see a triangle forming because we have set lower highs and higher lows throughout this consolation period of time. ( triangle marked in pink lines )
Trade plan;
I plan to trade the breakout higher or lower depending on what the market decides. If we break higher we could retest horizontal resistance zone around 1.4730-50 and that would be some 60-100 pips away. If we should get that move and then a rejection candle on a daily, then we could consider a 5Th wave top to be in place.
However if we break lower from the current triangle in pink we could run again some 60-100 pips or even more, your guess is as good as mine.
Truth be told though, a pattern build up like the consolation pattern in pink lines will break one way or the other. I prefer it to see it break higher first. Because should that happen the downward move after the 5Th wave will be a bigger move and should be in 3 waves, giving plenty of opportunities to go short with size of position. It’s all about seeing potential future moves and positioning for that move before it really takes off.
If you trade these ideas the risk is all yours.
Your comments or ideas are most welcome.
In trading you either make dust or you will eat dust.
All the best in your trades.
10-9-19 USDCAD on the verge?Another Forex Trading Snack.
I’ve been following the USDCAD for sometime looking and waiting for a great opportunity to possibly trade it. But for some time it hasn’t followed oil, or the other commodity currencies. Currently though it has made a very good looking bullish Flag pattern inside of a bigger triangle, which happens to be inside of a even bigger triangle. I know patterns in side of patterns... the flag pattern looks to have broken higher and looks to be very close to also breaking over the next patterned triangle marked in pink lines. ( flag pattern in gray lines )
Here is the daily landscape view...
Now that the chart views are setup, here is what I’m looking for and hoping to do. I’d like to place an order to trade on the daily close to or just above the 1.3350 area. This will have broken not only the small flag pattern but also the pink daily triangle pattern, and this should target the 1.35 ish area or very close to the even bigger black triangle area. That’s the setup and what I believe should be a higher probability trade if and when....
Here is the rub. USDCAD of late has had a habit of having a false break or two and then exploding forward past those false break points. Just look at the gray patterned flag. Knowing this and where we are in the current price action, along with the China trade talks restarting again on the 11th, any positive news or a deal of some limited kind, and this could break higher.
Now you know how I’m viewing it and looking at the landscape of this pair. If you trade this idea you are also assuming all risk of loss if there should be any. This is not trading advice, but for training purposes or an education on how I personally try to setup trades.
In trading you either make dust or you eat dust.
I’d hope you would rather stay out front and be making dust!
All the best my trading warriors.
NZDUSD inverted H&S ??Here is another Forex Trading Snack
NZDUSD fell below the 2015 low ( indicated by the black horizontal line) but bounced just as quickly back above. Thus tells me that that level might be of interest of larger position holders.
What makes this very interesting is the weekly candles. Moving back to the shorter 4H charts I saw this inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. Well it looks like that’s the pattern at least. Until the neck line is broken it’s just a possible pattern building.
If I were to play this pattern, I’d place a stop buy just above the neckline, placing my stop according to one’s risk tolerances under the neck line. The target to the up side would be measured at the same distance from the head to the neck and project that same distance from the neck line up to its limit ( 0.6400 ish )
If you chose to trade this idea you assume all risk of loss if any. This is not trading advice, but should be used as training or educational purposes.
In trading you either make dust or you eat dust.
All the best my trading warriors.
