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Mathematical Calculation of every Top & Bottom Price Points.There are 2 math equations through which we can accurately quantify as well as predict the Past/Future Top/Bottom prices for BTC. I used that equation to quantify every Cycle Top/Bottom for the past 11 Years of BTC history and it was >99% accurate in finding these prices every time. Math Formula for Cycle Top Price Calculation - Previous Cycle Bottom to Top Percent change in % / 5.3 = Next Cycle Top in % For eg. First Cycle CBTTP change was 60911% / 5.3 = 11492% The 2nd Cycle Top was at 11442%. Now the thing that we are waiting for the most is a bottom prediction and for that, I have the following Theory/Equation. Math Formula for Cycle Bottom Price Calculation - Cycle Top Price(CTP) * Cycle Distance Multiplier(CDM) / Pie Constant(3.14) = Cycle Bottom Price(CBP). CDM is a multiplier relative to cycle duration as the cycles progress the duration increases which means we cannot use doubles of CDM every new cycle by taking lengthening cycles into consideration I have incremented CDM by just 0.1 after the first 2 cycles. In the First Cycle, we used 0.2 CDM, 0.4 for the 2nd and then ideally we should use 0.6 creating a price of $3783 which is a bit off so when we use a diminished multiplier considering lengthening cycles we get a much more accurate value. For eg. If we use 2018's Cycle Top to predict its Bear Bottom then... $19799(CTP) x 0.5 / 3.14 = $3152(CBP) The 2018 cycle bottom was at $3156 By using this equation and applying it to the current 2020 Cycle we get the following Cycle Bottom figures - 13k with a CDM of 0.6 15k with a CDM of 0.7 17.6k with a CDM of 0.8 0.7 CDM price correlates with the log curve bottom price target of around 15k as well but 0.8 CDM signals that we have already bottomed which can be the case as it correlates with my recent Volume Peak Analysis which shows that we have bottomed and are about to reverse for good. But Ideally, contrary to popular belief 0.8 CDM would signify that the bottom's already in. If you use these formulas with any BTC/Stablecoin chart you will get almost >99% accurate values every time just like I did with BTC/USD and BTC/USDT. By using this formula for calculating the current Cycle's Bottom we can say that it will probably be between 13k to 15k if not already. This is strictly for Educational Purposes Only / NFA
by FaithlessInsomniac
[Risk Management trick] Tilting the "Math" in your favor!We all try to find the strategies which offer best possible win probabilities. Yet, we often overlook another crucial component of increasing your odds of winning => risk management. Today, I am going to show you how you can use a simple risk management trick to tilt the "Math" in your favor. Would you like to increase the output of your strategy by 25% without doing anything extra? Imagine a 3R win suddenly increasing to 3.75R with no change in the strategy at all. Consider this trade... We are trying to setup a sell trade with a very defined -1R risk and +3R profit. If we were to loose this trade, we will loose 1% of our capital - and if we win, we will make 3% in return (3RR). Here, we assumed that we'll exit the trade when price moves -1R completely against us. What if, we pivot our thinking and assume the trade is lost when price has moved -0.8R : because if the trade goes that much against you, there's a very high probability that it'll hit your stop loss too. There is no reason to pretend that it can still turn around at the last moment. Murphy's law truly applies here - "Anything that can go wrong will go wrong". If we do really pivot our thinking, lets see how it works in our favor! The Stop loss is now updated and set at -0.8R So a win will still give us the same 3%, but the loss will only wipe out -0.8% from our account. Now because our profit targets are still setup as per the original 1% trade, you can now see that we now get this extra reward if our trade hits its original 3R target The moment we draw 3R as per our new -0.8R stop loss, we get this - You can see how the 3R with -0.8R stop loss is achieved much before than the 3R with -1R stop loss (obviously)! That means, the extra reward you got when the trade reached your original 3R - is additional profit which you now have - without ever changing your trading strategy! 3/0.8 = 0.75 (which is 25% of your original 3R target) 0.75/3 = 25% You now have extra an 25% reward for free! New RR = 3.75 This is a very beautiful math equation for yet another reason! Imagine you lost your trade with a -0.8R => the additional 0.75R you will achieve (for free) from another trade will extremely quickly cover up anything you lost. As you can see, we can really use sound risk management techniques & Math to our benefit. This is called : Tilting the "Math" in your favor!
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Education
by makuchaku
155
Understanding Traditional Pivot Points (Formula Diagram)Learning about market Pivot Points is powerful information as you can see in this 15 min Bitcoin session chart, the Pivot Points and their components (S1,R1,R2,R3, etc) are clearly respected by price action I did a pretty extensive search for a diagram/drawing to better understand the formula for pivot points and I noticed there really are none... This snapshot of a chart will help you to better understand how the Pivot Points are established as time goes on in the market... In the diagram you can clearly see what a session term is, what its high/low and close are... The formula for establishing the next session's Pivot Pivot is: high of previous session + low of previous session + close/3 = next session's Pivot Point I will be making other diagram's of other components of a session such as the S1,S2,R1,R2,R3, etc. If you're interested in learning more about Technical Analysis, subscribe to my youtube channel: "Kick Back Time" The more subscribers I get there, the more I will be encouraged to produce educational videos * You can find this indicator on Trading View by doing a search and it should come up right at the top. I like to use the standard/traditional
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Kick_Back_Time
1