USD/CAD) Down Trand Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/CAD (U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar) on the 1-hour timeframe, with a focus on a potential double-top formation at strong resistance, followed by a drop toward support:
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Analysis Overview
Trend Structure: Downward-sloping channel with lower highs and lower lows.
Confluence Area: The current rally is approaching both the upper channel boundary and a significant horizontal resistance zone (~1.3660–1.3700).
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Key Technical Elements
1. Resistance & Double-Top Setup
The price nears the resistance zone (yellow) where it previously reversed (noted by red arrows).
A cap-and-float pattern (double/top-like structure) is projected: price pushes higher, hesitates, tests resistance again, then fails—a sign of weakening bullish momentum.
2. EMA 200 Interaction
The 1-hour EMA 200 (blue line at ~1.3635) sits just below current price.
A failure to sustain above this level reinforces the bearish case.
3. RSI Overextension
RSI (14) is around 64–69, indicating near-overbought conditions on this timeframe, suggesting a potential pullback.
4. Price Targets
Initial target: Lower channel boundary near 1.3556 (highlighted support).
Extended target: Beneath to 1.3540, aligning with the broader Demand zone.
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Proposed Trade Setup
Step Action Level
Entry Short near top of resistance/channel (after double-top confirmation) 1.3680–1.3700
Stop-Loss Above recent high and channel resistance ~1.3720
Take Profit 1 Near EMA 200/lower channel bounce ~1.3556
Take Profit 2 Extended move to demand zone ~1.3540
Estimated Move ~1.15% drop from midday highs –
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Risk & Event Factors
Scheduled Canadian or U.S. data releases (icons shown) could introduce volatility and disrupt technical patterns.
A breakout above ~1.3720 would invalidate this bearish thesis and shift bias bullish.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary
Expecting a cap-and-float double-top formation at key resistance near 1.3660–1.3700, followed by a trend continuation drop toward 1.3556–1.3540. The bearish setup is supported by a down-channel structure, EMA 200 failure, and overbought RSI conditions.
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USD /CAD) bearish reversal analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of USD/CAD pair on the 2-hour timeframe, suggesting that the price is likely to drop toward the support zone. Here's the detailed idea behind the analysis:
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Chart Breakdown (2H – USD/CAD)
1. Resistance Zone (Yellow Box - Top):
Marked as a strong supply area where price has repeatedly been rejected (highlighted by red arrows).
Acts as a key zone where sellers are in control.
Also aligns with a descending trendline, reinforcing bearish pressure.
2. Support Zone (Yellow Box - Bottom):
This is the target point marked at 1.35387, which previously served as a demand zone.
The chart suggests this level as the next significant area where price might find buyers.
3. Trend Context:
Price is moving within a descending channel (black trendlines), confirming the overall downtrend.
The 200 EMA (1.36834) is acting as dynamic resistance, keeping price under pressure.
4. Projected Move (Blue Box):
Shows a potential drop of ~91 pips toward the support level.
A bearish wave is anticipated as per the black zigzag line on the chart.
5. RSI Indicator:
RSI is near neutral (49.02 and 49.70) — suggesting no overbought/oversold conditions, but confirming lack of bullish momentum.
RSI is aligned with price trending down.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Entry Zone: Near current price or minor pullback (1.364–1.365)
Target: 1.35387 (support zone)
Invalidation: Break and close above resistance level / 200 EMA (~1.3685)
Trend: Downtrend within channel
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GBP/JPY) back bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY on the 2-hour timeframe, signaling a potential rally from a key support area. Here’s a breakdown of this analysis:
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Technical Breakdown
1. Key Support Zone (Yellow Box):
Price has pulled back to a strong support level around 196.50–197.00.
This level previously acted as resistance and now flipped to support (classic support-resistance flip), marked by the green arrow.
2. EMA 200 as Dynamic Support:
The 200 EMA (~196.567) is just below the support zone, reinforcing the likelihood of a bullish bounce from this area.
3. Bullish Price Projection:
The chart suggests a bounce off this support zone with a projected move toward the target point at 200.132, indicating a +1.71% upside.
4. RSI Indicator (14):
RSI is at 43.47, approaching the oversold region but curving upward — supporting a potential reversal to the upside.
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Forecasted Move
Expected Move: Bullish reversal from support, targeting 200.132.
The chart outlines a potential entry at current levels, with a bounce confirmed by price respecting the yellow support zone.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Trading Idea Summary
Bias: Bullish
Entry Zone: Around 196.50–197.00
Stop-Loss: Below support zone (~196.00 or lower)
Take-Profit: 200.132
Confirmation: Bullish candlestick pattern or RSI crossover
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BTC/USD) Resistance level pullback Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSDT), highlighting key levels and potential price movements based on trend channels, support/resistance, and RSI. Here's the breakdown:
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Key Elements in the Analysis:
1. Trend Channel:
BTC is trading within an ascending channel, indicating an ongoing bullish trend.
The recent price action hit the upper boundary (resistance) of the channel, suggesting potential for a pullback.
2. Resistance Zone:
105,586.06 is marked as a resistance level, where price faced rejection.
Strong reaction here suggests sellers are defending this area.
3. Support Zone:
A new support level is established around 98,000.
This zone aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel and previous breakout structure.
4. Target Point (Bearish Projection):
The chart projects a potential drop to the 97,367.51 level, representing a ~7.4% correction.
This move mirrors the prior leg up, applying a measured move concept.
5. RSI Indicator:
RSI is around 66–71, indicating overbought conditions.
A bearish divergence or trendline break on RSI suggests weakening momentum.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Summary of Trading Idea:
Bias: Short-term Bearish (correction within an overall bullish trend)
Expected Move: Potential dip toward 97,367.51 support
Confirmation: Rejection at resistance, RSI divergence, and trendline break
Invalidation: A strong breakout above 105,586.06 would nullify the correction setup and favor continued bullish movement
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BTC/USD Breakdown! Bearish Target: $78K🔍 BTC/USD 30-Minute Chart Analysis
📉 Market Structure:
The chart displays an ABCDE corrective pattern, likely a descending wedge or contracting triangle, which has now broken to the downside.
Price action shows a breakout below the wedge, leading to further bearish momentum.
The 200-period moving average (red line) is acting as resistance, reinforcing the downward trend.
📊 Current Price: ~$83,057
🔻 Bearish Target: $78,049 (marked as the potential support level)
🛑 Key Observations:
Rejection from wave E indicates a lack of bullish strength.
Lower highs and lower lows confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.
Potential retest of ~$85,000 before dropping further.
🚀 Trading Insights:
Bearish Bias: Short opportunities on pullbacks toward resistance.
Bullish Reversal? Look for price action near $78,049—if buyers step in, a potential bounce could occur.
⚠️ Watch out for:
Sudden Bitcoin volatility (news-driven moves).
A fake breakdown (if buyers reclaim above ~$85,000).
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Bearish Breakdown Potential – Key Support Leve:
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Resistance Zones (Purple Rectangles at the Top)
The price recently hit a resistance area around $92,000.
It also tested an ascending trendline (red line) and failed to break higher.
Support Zones (Purple Rectangles at the Bottom)
There are two significant support areas:
First zone around $87,500 - $88,000.
Second zone around $82,000 - $83,000.
Bearish Expectation (Black Arrow)
The price is projected to break down from the current level.
A potential lower high formation suggests further decline.
Target areas: $88,000 first, then possibly $82,000.
🔥 Conclusion
Bearish bias if the price fails to reclaim the resistance.
A breakdown below $88,000 could accelerate the drop.
Watch for rejection signals at resistance zones before confirming short trades.