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Hi chances on reversalMorning folks, So, by introducing $Trump Token, old Donny has put the start of global US Dollar devaluation. And Melania probably will add today... All our short-term targets are done - weekly grabbers and H&S failure has worked fine, BTC has challenged the top of 108K. We consider this action as hype and emotional. Mostly due euphoria around D. Trump inauguration. Due to oversold on Monthly and Daily time frames, chances on reversal are significant. So we intend to watch for DRPO "Sell" pattern on weekly chart. Still, Donny could tell us a lot today, and madness could continue a little bit. We do not exclude that BTC could try to reach nearest upside extension around 113.5K before reversal starts. We do not call right now for taking short positions, let's see what will be on Thu, prefer to wait for patterns and signs for reversal first. But we call to consider long positions close or, at least tight stops around them. Take care.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Back to 108K ?Welcome back folks, Only on Thu we talked about bearish scenario and 85K target and now we have to turn everything from top to bottom. Not occasionally on Thu we warned about weekly bullish grabber pattern and called to not take any fresh shorts, but keep existed ones. What's now? Now our H&S stands in a process of failure, which means price has good chances to go back to 108K top, is failure will be confirmed. Besides, on weekly chart we could get 2nd grabber in a row if BTC will close slightly higher. Price was not able to break the neck line, and just got the stops there. It means that currently we do not consider any shorts. For long entry we could use intraday Fib levels. First one is 96.35K And see what will happen next.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
On the way to 85.5KMorning folks, So, both our entries worked fine - as on the top of the right arm as on recent pullback to 96k area. Now there are two moments that you have to know. First is, the risk factor. It comes from weekly bullish grabber pattern , suggesting upside jump above 108K top. But the problem with it is unclear reasons for this jump. Because fundamental picture for now doesn't support any upside action on BTC. First is, dollar and yields are going higher. Second and what is even more important - the new debt ceil act is not taken yet. We have only temporal act on postponing of this decision. It means that until it will be taken, the US Treasury has to save. And they do - spending cash from their Fed deposit. It means that liquidity for some time will remain narrow, which is bad for BTC and Stock market performance. Since both our entries are safe already and protected with breakeven stops, we could relax a bit and keep our eyes on 85.5K downside H&S target. If you still would like to go short- you should understand the risk that you take, because your stop now will be above 96K area. And with potential weekly bullish pattern on the back. Those who have an opposite view on situation and want to buy instead - the weekly pattern is the great one that you could try to use. If price will drop under 91K area, it will mean the failure of this idea.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Missed 101.5K sell? Don't worryMorning folks, So, our H&S has started perfect. Right from the area that we've discussed last time - Agreement of Fib resistance and our XOP target on 4H chart, where the top of right arm should be formed. Obviously now we consider no longs by far. H&S target stands around 85.5K - in the middle of wide K-support area of 82-89K. If you missed entry around 101K, we could get 2nd chance around 96-96.5K, but do not expect too extended pullback. Price is at the slope of the shoulder, naturally this is not the moment for deep upside pullbacks. I would say that deep retracement, back to 100K would be unwelcome sign, suggesting weakness of the bears.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Big test for BTCMorning folks, So, we're almost there - 100.5K area that we've discussed last time. BTC is almost completed the predefined XOP extension. Why this level is so important. Because it determines the results of H&S daily pattern - whether it will work or fail: Correspondingly, it tells where BTC will go - either back to the 108K top (or even higher) or starts deeper retracement to ~82-87K area. Besides, it is important to us because we have to make a decision on short position taking. Here we also could use 1H potential H&S pattern, with 99K area of the right arm and potential level for decision making. This is just to not risk too much. So, watching for completion of XOP, then 1H H&S - if everything goes as it should, thinking about short entry. If not - then start watching North.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Doubts are confirmed. Watching for 100.5KMorning folks, Last time we decided to take a pause, because too weak performance on supposedly bearish market has confused us. Now our doubts are confirmed, indeed the action that we see now is not typical and natural for bearish market. It is too wobble and slow. This is not the way how bearish market normally moves. It doesn't mean that potentially bearish scenario and deeper retracement are cancelled totally. It means that they could start with different patterns. Thus, on daily we're watching for something like this, although do not exclude that it might be Double Top later as well: Since the shoulder stands around ~100.5K, we do not consider any shorts until it will be reached. 1H chart shows upside AB-CD with the same extension target. We consider no longs.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement will be deeper but what pattern will trigger it?Greetings everybody, So, our H&S behaves well by far, but now the degree of uncertainty is raising. As you could see on the chart downside action is slowing. What is it? Thin Xmas market or the bearish pressure is becoming weaker? Long-term charts - monthly, weekly show that deeper retracement has high chances to happen in nearest 1-2 months. The problem is, it is difficult to estimate what particular pattern will trigger it. If market will keep going lower - it could be our H&S. But what if we will get the different one instead? Something like this on daily: That's why, if you have shorts - you could keep it, just manage your stops. But for now we take the pause with the new shorts. We do not consider longs as well, because the major context is down. Hopefully after NY we will get more clarity on this subject.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Perfect startMorning folks, Hopefully you had a great Xmas time... Today we do not have a lot to comment. Our view we've explained in previous update Setup has started just perfect. Once upside AB-CD was done, the H&S starts. Now we consider two points - 89.5-90K, mostly because of Fib support and oversold on daily chart [ /b] And the major one around 82K as a H&S downside target. 10-year yields are keep climbing with 4.75% target by our view. So the pressure on all dollar rivals will remain for some time. Thus, no longs, if you've missed entry on top, no problems, you could try to step in on minor intraday pullback.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Bullish tendency is broken 101-102K for sellingMorning folks, So, BTC was not able to stay above predefined support area and drop right back to the daily 92-95K level. It means that existing bullish context on daily chart is done. In general, this is reasonable - we're going to the Xmas Holidays and inauguration. There are a lot of uncertainty with coming D. Trump policy. Especially when JPowell said that the Fed doesn't intend to own any BTC... so inner conflict is ready. So, retracement might be deeper in nearest month. Since BTC is overextended down a bit, the first thing we expect upside technical bounce, somewhere to 101-102K area. Then, if we're correct in our analysis, downside reversal should happen with potential H&S pattern.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
105K for possible short entryMorning folks, So, BTC just perfectly completed our setup for this week, turning down precisely around 107.80K, where as butterfly as H&S pattern targets were completed and falling down to predefined 98-98.5K area... Now what? Daily trend has turned bearish, so, nominally we have no reasons for longs at least on daily chart. And should wait for the bounce to resistance levels. Now 105K seems potentially interesting for short entry, if BTC will hold bearish trend. On intraday chart current 98-98.5 Lows in fact is a last hope for the bulls. This is K-support area, trend line support. SO tactical bounce should happen here, and it is already underway. Thus, for intraday traders, this level might be interesting for scalp long position. Those who would like to sell should wait for the same upside bounce. And, some resistance area, say 105K. If BTC will keep going higher, then forget about shorts for some time. So, daily traders should wait...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
107K is next upside target, looking at 98-98.5K for entryMorning folks, So, BTC stands in upside channel, and we have no big patterns by far. Meantime, on 4H chart as potential ones, we could suggest the butterfly, right? While on 1H chart we have DRPO "Sell" (in red circle) and a kind of H&S shape. It is just a shape, but who said that market can't keep it harmony? Thus, 98-98.5 seems interesting level, if you would like to go long. For short position we see nothing interesting on higher time frames, thus, only DRPO "Sell" here and with minimal target around 98.5K
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Give market more timeMorning folks, Just we've stopped talking about downside reaction on 102K target - it immediately has happened. As we're going slowly to Xmas time, managers and investors start thinking about holidays and payouts. So, activity on the market will slow. Second is BTC is overbought on monthly chart and completed major target. Such a combination tells that it should be either down or sideways action in nearest time. Since monthly is very big time frame, reaction might be extended in time. So, we just need to do market time to express this reaction. It now stands in release stage. So, the first thing - we should not hurry up with a new position, no matter in what direction. Do you see something interesting here, on 4H chart? That's it and I see nothing. Second is - we should wait for clear patterns without any worry that we will miss the chance. Patterns should be extended and well recognisable, such as H&S on daily for example: Or something of this kind. So, be patient.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
127K is the next oneMorning folks, So, today is not too many things to comment - our 102K target is done perfectly, as well as entry process setup. Now we need to give some time to the market and see what the reaction will follow on this level. Reasons for reaction exist - monthly and weekly Overbought, strong and important 100K target. So at this point I wouldn't hurry up with the new long position. Based on monthly chart next all time target is 127K. It doesn't mean that BTC will go to it immediately, but this is just the next one to consider, when you plan to invest or buy BTC for long-term some day later:
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Watching for 93.5K supportMorning folks, Last time we've taken a pause, because of Holiday and some uncertainty as market could form three different patterns. Now the amount of candidates is reduced, so, we could speak more specifically. In fact, minor upside action that has happened last week, increase chances for upside butterfly. But, since action is relatively slow, we prefer to use lowest Fib support to consider position taking. 93.5K looks to be OK for this. Besides, this is trend line of broken triangle. Invalidation point of this scenario is lows at 90.5K level. So, not too big risk. If BTC breaks it - we get deeper downside action of a larger scale. In fact, this will erase the butterfly. Upside target is the same 102K.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Too many patterns to suggestMorning folks, Surprisingly, but BTC has not come to 102K target directly. Despite a lot of panic headlines in media about 8+% drop - nothing awful has happened. Very small retracement and inside week. In some way 102K target will be reached, no doubts. But right now it is impossible to say in what particular way this will happen. As there are too many patterns that we could suggest. Here, on the chart we already have three of them. On daily chart it might be another two. Keeping it simple, the concern is about how BTC will go higher - either right now or after deeper retracement. Since today a Holiday and we will have a weekend soon, we think it would be better do not hurry up and postpone everything until Monday. There might be some clarity.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
The same 100-102K target in focusMorning folks, So, our suggestion that BTC is aimed on 100K and will keep going to it directly seems was correct. J. Yellen resigned, and it was another positive news for BTC. Anyway, currently we see no reasons to change our trading plan. On daily chart we have bullish grabber, suggesting upward continuation. So, it is just a few steps until the target. We suggest that some pattern could finalize this action. It might be either butterfly or 3-Drive - they have different shape but the same target. Invalidation point for this setup is 95K lows. THis is for those who trade on intraday charts. For, greater setups we need to wait for reaction on 100K target. We do not exclude the chance of moderate pullback, so something bearish might be formed there. Let's keep watching.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
2
Going to 102KToday, guys we show you the longest and shortest our charts. First one is a monthly time frame, and it shows strategical targets, and the nearest one is 102K. Pay attention that price is coming to historical record of overbought level. This combination significantly increases the retracement chances once 102K target will be reached. Still, on 1H chart BTC accurately completed our 98K target - butterfly and 3-Drive patterns. Although downside retracement here is also possible, thus minimal butterfly target is 3/8 pullback to 96.50K area. But we do not expect that retracement will become more extended. The attractiveness and magic of 100K level strongly acts on the minds of investors, so by all efforts BTC will tend to touch 100K area
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
Keep watching for 99-102KMorning folks, Since last week BTC has reached a solid target/resistance area together with weekly Overbought (where it still stands) we have considered two scenarios - either immediate downside pullback via H&S pattern, or attempt to touch major 102K target first and then the pullback. Now it seems that everything goes with the latter scenario. H&S shape on 4H chart is totally ruined. while our 3-Drive stands well and its final part could take the shape of the butterfly. We see nothing interesting for bears by far. But for bulls, if you will control the riks and 86K lows, which is invalidation point of this bullish scenario - everything could be fine.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
102K is the next oneGreetings everybody, So, BTC is taking important targets one by one. 85 all-time AB=CD target already is behind and next one is 102K. NOw price stands between them, but BTC is not at overbought on monthly chart, so potentially it could keep moving higher. THe major intrigue right now is the retracement. Whether BTC shows response to 85K target and then will turn to 102K or, it will go to 102K directly and after that will start the pullback... Based on performance we suggest that attempt to reach 102K has more chances now. Thus, we bring you the chart with potential 3-Drive pattern that could finalize this action. If you would like to wait for deeper retracement and don't rely on 3-Drive, then your option is potential 4H H&S pattern and ~80K support on average to watch for: Our opinion that 3-Drive has better chances to happen, but we will see... We consider no shorts by far.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
85-88K is the next oneMorning folks, So, BTC has made a historical breakout. But for those who read our monthly report it is not a surprise. This is long term game and the pumping process is just starting. If you want to know what is really going on - you could read it. Meantime, we consider 85-88K as the next upside target. If BTC will show pullback prior it will reach it, then 73K seems like interesting level to consider for long entry. If pullback will start after 85-88K will be completed - then do not hurry up with position taking as retracement might be deeper. We do not consider any short positions for now.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
2
Watching for market reactionMorning everybody, So, recent sell-off on stock market and rally of the US yields have made pressure as on Gold as on BTC but thankfully it was short term. Still, BTC has dropped to the level that we've discussed last time - 67.5-68K. Why is it so special? First is, it stands around the all-time trend line resistance that recently has been broken up. Second is - the K-support level, which makes it rather strong and a great indicator of market's power. From bullish point of view, we do not want BTC to drop back below it, breaking 65K lows down. At the same time, with elections hysteria environment we suggest to not take any position without confirming patterns. So, our trading plan is to wait for market response to this level. Once we get more or less clear patterns, we could act...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1