Morning folks, So, the Fed decision should not become a surprise for those who read our BTC fundamental reports. In last two weeks we've spent time for in-depth analysis to whether Fed stands near the pivot or not. And have come to conclusion that Fed remains tight, terminal rate should increase 4.5-4.75% widely anticipated level and move above 5%. Recent Fed...
Morning folks, So, BTC has started nice with upside breakout of the range, re-tested the border. But now it can't proceed higher to 20.6K target. Although, if it is really bullish, it should to. The reason for that is the Fed - they start more actively contract the ballance sheet trying to come up with the promised values of bonds' sell of. Thus, last week...
Morning folks, All markets in general and BTC in particular have got a liquidity injections due massive interventions by PBoC, BoJ and SNB in recent 2-3 sessions. This factor intrudes technical picture and has turned it bullish. Still, we think that it is not reliable and could easy go as easy it has come. Thus, we treat current action as technical pullback....
Morning folks, Market obviously stands indecision. Fundamental background remains bad but technical liquidity support from the Fed and pre-election rally distorts the picture. This lets BTC stands on the surface but at the same time it has not inner power to accelerate higher. Currently, we do not see any good trading setups, but on longer term charts we keep...
Morning folks, So, last setup is started nice - price turns down precisely from 5/8 resistance, keeping chances for potential downside butterfly. Although action looks slow and choppy, fundamental background still stands in favor of downside action. BTC has not taken any part in recent stock market rally, rising US interest yields keep market under pressure. So,...
Morning folks, Jump on all markets after CPI report was total shock for market society, at least based on the multiple comments. It has come from Fed minutes that have shown different opinions among the members on the future rate hike's pace. Second, the US banks have sent clear signal to Fed that with this rate pace they could get problems as with earnings as...
Morning folks, Overall situation on financial markets is far from positive. UK Bond market has collapsed and nobody knows what end will it have. J. Yellen speaks on liquidity shorts on Treasury Bills market. PPI was two times greater than expected yesterday. With such environment, whatever CPI we will get today, hardly it will reverse BTC market up. Thus, we...
Morning folks, Recent NFP data and following hawkish comments from Fed members give small chances to stock and BTC markets to show any kind of upside performance. Fed last week finally seriously started QT and cut the balance for $200 Bln, drying more liquidity out of the market. This week we also expect the bumpy ride with CPI, Fed minutes and retail sales...
Morning folks, Fed has opened liquidity box, trying to calm down markets, households before US elections, and making the image that everything is becoming well, situation is normalizing, markets start rising. This is short-term performance for just 3-4 weeks, until elections take place. Then, everything should collapse. Anyway, within these weeks, BTC could...
Morning folks, Markets finally get tactical relief and show pullback across the board - Dollar Index, EUR, GBP etc., everything is bouncing. But what is BTC? It is not. Flat action, any attempt to show the bounce sells off fast. This makes us think on existence of bearish pressure. As a target we consider daily AB-CD with 16.20K destination point. Market has set...
Morning folks, here is just minor update as BTC has shown almost no changes. FX market reacted stronger. As major bearish patterns on higher time frames stand intact, Dollar Index is tending to 113 target, we suggest that BTC should complete our butterfly and 17.4K target at least. Bulls for should be patient and wait when this will happen, at least. Although...
Morning folks, So, miracle has not happened, and phantom bullish setup that we've discussed last time has been vanished. We see now multiple fundamental reasons of downside continuation, not only Fed move for 1%. Dollar Index analysis shows that currency should reach 113 point level, households start selling stocks, which is necessary factor for collapse on...
Morning folks, So, CPI report stands in a row with our long-term BTC view, matching good to the 12K and 9K targets that sooner or later but will be completed. Currently overall sentiment stands negative as chances for 1% Fed move now jumped up to 38%. Besides, our Dollar Index Analysis suggests action to 113 area, which brings nothing good to the bulls here as...
Morning folks, Based on recession fears and some decrease of crude oil prices, as well as anticipation of lower CPI numbers tomorrow, market falls in euphoria, suggesting deeper upside bounce. We do not see any positive change in fundamental picture and treat this action as temporal. Still, in short-term, market has formed bullish reversal swing, and...
Morning guys, So, BTC even over-completed our COP target, diving a bit deeper, to 1.618 butterfly extension. Stocks market now stands in short-term euphoria, concerning oil prices drop and US yields easing. So, why we shouldn't use it? As we've suggested, we could wait for upside bounce to 19.8K resistance at least, or , if we get lucky, to 20.40-20.50K...
Morning folks, Overall action stands relatively quiet,so we have minimal changes since Mon. Overall context remains bearish. Maybe poor NFP numbers only could trigger more or less moderate bounce. Here we have two targets. First one is 19.2K which could be finalized by minor butterfly with tactical upside response on intraday charts. This is the object for...
Morning folks, Thursday plan has worked nice. Wyoming meeting just has confirmed our long-term view and why we call to stay aside of BTC since Jan 2022. BTW, we've prepared new fundamental report where we explain why it is not the time yet to invest, set downside targets and also share forecasts of long-term performance of BTC and US Stocks... ITs free on...
Morning folks, So, our Monday setup is accurately done - minor AB-CD pattern completed, and we have "222" Sell pattern. Wyoming could bring surprises, and break technical setup, no doubts. But this factor is external and stands out of our control. So, it makes no sense to rely on it. Technical picture looks bearish and suggests downside breakout. Supposedly...