Greetings everybody, So, BTC goes with our long term view, that suggests next target around 12.17K. Meantime, as market takes the rest after yesterday's thrilling session, minor tactical bounce could happen. If H&S works - BTC could re-test broken lows, which is also 25K-resistance area as well. H&S should start from ~ 21K. If BTC doesn't do it - be prepared for...
Morning folks, Those who read our weekly reports on FPA site on fundamental analysis of the US economy probably are not surprised with the BTC collapse. As BTC as the stock market are doomed. We expect 2500 level on S&P on mid-term perspective with further drop below 2000 in longer-term, which means that our long term targets on BTC is 12K and 8K... Now BTC is...
Morning folks, Price performance looks nervous in recent few sessions. Based on what I see on intraday chart, it seems that BTC is trying to break down the 29.65-29.67 K support area that we've discussed previously. Because it doesn't look like upward reversal. On daily chart we have bearish wedge consolidation and uncompleted weekly 25.9K target. Yes, lower...
Morning guys, This update is better to watch together with the previous one. So, our topic is next BTC target - 34.10K. How do you think, whether it will reach it? I hope so. At least the start of the week looks inspiring. In fact, last week Fed has added to financial system around $140 Bln (check the cash account of US Treasury), and this has let market to find...
Morning folks, So, BTC has hit our first 0.618 upside extension and shows 3/8 pullback, which is normal. Downside action looks a bit strong and BTC now shows no signs of upside reversal. But we see two factors that could let BTC to keep going with the upside AB=CD pattern. First is cross-market analysis. On 10year yield we have clear H&S pattern, on FX, Gold...
Morning folks, BTC now follows to common tendency that we see on all markets - FX, stocks, bonds etc. But this is not the change of the trend, this is not the breakthrough in the mind of investors, guys. This is just liquidity pumping from the Fed. Although QT programme should start in June, in recent two months Fed "returned" back ~ $200 Bln, and this is the...
Morning folks, So, bearish signs are still here. On the daily chart the same pennant that we've discussed last time. On 4H chart market was not even to complete "222" Sell pattern that we've discussed last time. I wouldn't even talk about butterfly and its target around 32 K level. As in the long-term we expect 2500 level on S&P 500 index, our view on BTC...
Morning folks, Last week we said that we're not inspired with the BTC performance and called to stay aside from taking long position by far. Our long term view has not changed, as we think that BTC should drop more in mid term perspective. In short-term, market could reach 32-32.20K resistance area but we also see risk of downside continuation. First is, on...
Morning folks, Fundamentally, crush of stock market recently, hawkish speech from J. Powell and J. Yellen and terrible US statistics keep us aside from any long positions by far. Technically - appearing of bearish grabber on Monday and tail close yesterday looks bearish. Besides, on the daily chart bullish trend by MACD and bearish price action suggest of...
Morning folks, So, market is trying to show the reaction on our major 26K support area, but it can't succeed yet. First is, today we could get bearish grabber that suggests forming of the new lows. Second - by taking a look at 4H chart we could see that BTC was not able even to complete minor 0.618 AB-CD target, hits the nearest 3/8 level and keep dropping. On...
Morning folks, Well, actually as BTC just has hit our long term target - it is not too much to tell about short-term situation. Now we avoid and short positions and wait for market reaction on strong support area. Particular speaking - what pattern will be formed around that let us to take tactical long position for the bounce. It probably takes few days....
Morning folks, So, not occasionally we're skeptic on any tactic bullish setup. Thus, our recent intraday pattern even has not been formed, as market was not able to form the right arm of the pattern and collapsed not reaching the neckline. Thus, slowly but stubbornly we're coming to major 26K target. Actually BTC has no solid barriers on the way to it. Recent...
Morning folks, So, our recent "222" is done and market re-tested 37K daily trend line support. With relatively dovish Fed comments, BTC gets the chance to show the bounce. If we get the pattern on the weekly chart- upside action could stand for 4-5K. Meantime, on 1H chart, market is forming the H&S pattern. Currently upside target based on AB-CD pattern stands...
Morning folks, So, it is nothing to please the bulls by far. April closed at tail, while weekly bullish grabber has not been formed. As we're coming to Fed and NFP and BTC still stands tightly related to stock market performance - we expect Fed comments might be more hawkish, which could put additional pressure on BTC. From this standpoint - on 1H chart we see...
Morning folks, BTC has shown a bit curious action in recent few days. The upward bounce that has become the surprise for us - has been reversed fast and price returns back to its own. The result of this action is bearish reversal session on daily chart. 1H chart shows very choppy bounce that cares no signs of thrust. It means that this is not the reversal. Now...
Morning folks, So, BTC expectedly erased all potential bullish patterns around support area that we've discussed last time. H&S also has failed. With the recent J.Powell comments and dynamic of the S&P index we suggest downside continuation on BTC, with the nearest short term targets of 37.3K and 35.7K of 1H butterfly pattern. In the longer-term we do not see...
Morning folks, So, this is mostly the update to the previous idea, as market confirms our plan and is forming reverse H&S pattern around 4H 5/8 Fib support. The butterfly that we've discussed last time, has become the part of the H&S, as we've suggested. Thus, market finally gives the pattern that bulls could follow. This is at least something. Personally I...
Morning guys, So, as we've said last time - nothing has changed in our long-term view. We still think that background is not ready for long term investing in BTC. And now we see growing chances that our long-term target around 26K area will be achieved. We do not know, whether downside action stops at 26K, but at least, this area is worthy of consideration as...