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About retracement againGreetings everybody, So last week was relatively quiet with no impact on higher time frames. Market stands in consolidation, slightly was hit by CPI report. So the same question we have on the table now - whether it will be deeper AB=CD retracement or, market could start moving higher immediately. To answer it, we need to control two vital levels that are mutually exclusives. First, let's start from the bearish scenario. Market has formed reversed H&S on 1H chart and almost hits its first, AB=CD target. This target creates Agreement resistance with daily 5/8 Fib levels. And overall shape looks like "222" Sell pattern. So, if you have bearish view - this is the area that you need to think about. Once you take the position - move stops to breakeven as soon as possible. Next one is bullish scenario. Once pullback from resistance starts - we need to keep an eye on 64.8-65K area. This is neckline, and K-support area. If BTC indeed is bullish - it has to stay above it. Downside breakout means that bearish scenario wins and we get deeper daily AB=CD action. Hence - this level is for bulls to consider. If 1H H&S keeps working - next target stands around 69K top.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
CPI effect durabilityMorning folks, So the drop that we've discussed last time has happened but due to absolutely different reason - CPI report. Now the question is, how long CPI effect will be. As BTC has general bullish context sooner rather than later it should keep going higher. Here we have two scenarios. To understand which one will be formed - we need to keep an eye on daily chart and intraday one. On daily, we need to watch for bullish grabber, as BTC stands at support of recent ATH and K-support area on intraday charts. If grabber appears tod-tom, it means that BTC is able to start rising immediately. Alternatively, if no grabbers appear - we could get downside AB-CD that could start from ~ 66K area lead price to next support of 62K. This action anyway is tactical and doesn't hurt long term background. But, it is solid action anyway. That's being said we're watching for daily patterns and price performance around 66K resistance where "222" Sell might be formed.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
63.5-64.5 are for entry, 70K is nearest targetMorning folks, So, it seems our bet on triangle's direct breakout is worked and we hope that we're in continuation mode to the major upside targets. At least fundamental background that we've got last week stands supportive to BTC upward action. So, those who haven't taken position inside the triangle now we could consider 63.5-63.8 K-support area on 1H chart and optionally nearest support at 64.5K. Market hits AB=CD target, so, at least minor respect we should get. Hopefully it will be enough to step-in. Our nearest upside target is the daily one, and it stands at 70K area.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Direct upward continuationMorning folks, So, H&S pattern has played nice, despite that we saw some speculative tricks during Fed statement... Now we should pay attention to daily chart that is forming bullish context. We're tending to suggestion that BTC should show direct upward continuation without any deeper retracement. Once first downside bounce happened, we had few potential scenarios - triangle, some DiNapoli patterns and downside AB=CD. Now, based on performance that we see on intraday charts, it seems that triangle scenario is most probable. As triangle is continuation pattern and is forming right under previous top - it means that market is building an energy to challenge it. So, as a conclusion, we do not consider any bearish position right now. For long entry, it is possible to catch intraday bullish patterns, such as recent H&S or "2222" Buy, whatever will be formed. Also pay attention to recent top inside the triangle. If price jumps above it - most probable that upward continuation is started. More details in the video on FPA site. Take care, S.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Additional scenario of retracement appearsHey everybody, BTC still stands with suggested retracement out from 67K month target. We still have two major destination points for it - 56.25K and 51.65K, although we hope that it wouldn't go so far... Today we would like to share with some add-on to the retracement's shape that might be interesting. Currently it is impossible to say, whether this scenario works as reversal and triggers direct upward continuation to next long-term target, or it just pushes price to 65K target before 2nd downside leg starts. If this setup fails, then it could reshape into downside butterfly and complete 56.25K target. So, for conservative traders, it is not necessary to follow it. At the same time it has some adv., and the major one is ability to place very tight stop. We're talking about H&S pattern that is formed around daily support line. Market stands at the point of right arm's bottom, where upward action should start. Whether to follow it or not - is up to you. Thus, for a conservative approach - look for more clarity. Otherwise, you could try this one, if it fits to your view and trading style.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement targetsGood morning folks, As BTC is getting clearer shape, now we could talk about potential targets of downside retracement. Triangle has not been formed, so, immediate upward continuation was taken off the table. Now it is clear H&S shape and it has two potential targets. First one is very close, that is AB=CD that agrees with strong Fib support area. This is the first level for accumulation and attempt to buy, as market has good chances to bounce, at least temporary, that lets us to move stops to b/e. Currently we do not have serious reasons to suggest drop to XOP and next Agreement area with major 5/8 Fib support. But, if this happens, still - you know what level to watch next. These two levels are enough to hold retracement on any bullish market. If BTC somehow breaks them both - it will be clear signal that something is broken in bullish machine.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement shapeGood morning folks, So the first downside reaction starts as we've discussed it last time. Now, it is too big task to explore possible shapes and describe them here - just watch the video on FPA site if you're interested... Here I would say only that we need to control the depth of the reaction. First is, if market starts to form the triangle - this is the clear sign to buy and coming upside continuation. All other shapes suggest deeper retracement. The first one you already could see on 4H chart - this is H&S. This pattern could lead price to 55K at, least. Alternatively we could get the Double Top, that suggests even deeper retracement and re-testing local highs around 52K. So let's start with H&S and see how it will turn. Once we get more information - we return to this subject on Thu, with our next update.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
To back or not to backMorning folks, So, BTC hits ATH and 0.618 (COP) 67K extension on monthly chart. This is first upside target of new large AB-CD pattern. Also price hits weekly overbought. Technically, picture definitely suggests that BTC should go higher in long-term. Our first target is 75-77K. But in near-term the major question is whether it shows any reaction on the top and what reaction will be. As usual it could be either wash&rinse of the top and deeper pullback or market could start coiling around it. The former is more bearish for lower time frames than the latter. Hence the strategy is different depending on what you would like to do. For bulls we suggest it makes sense to wait for pullback to 56.5-59K area where nice bullish setup might be formed and this area is attractive to possess for upward continuation. Besides, hardly you would like to buy at ATH and weekly overbought level. For the bears picture is not as pleasant, mostly because of the major tendency. Right now the background for taking position is not ready it. Yes, market hits the targets but it is unclear the reaction yet, as too few time passed since then. As targets stand at long term chart, do not scare to miss the entry moment. If reaction starts - it will be clear and extended. That's being said - now we should understand what the reaction will be (if any). Approximately, bulls should keep an eye on 56.5-59K, while bears have to wait for clear signs and patterns before pull the trigger
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Pullback after 64-67K targetsMorning folks, So BTC stands nice and we have no doubts in long term bullish context. So our attention right now mostly on short term performance as many people ask where next chance for entry could appear. Right now BTC stands at weekly overbought area and is coming to targets of COP ~ 67K on monthly chart and daily OP at 64K. I suspect that 67K might be hit technically on triggering buying stops above ATH.... Anyway, whatever shape price takes on a way up and around these targets, it seems we could consider 55K support area (this is current level) as we potentially could get DInapoli B&B "Buy" trade if our suggestion will be correct and, indeed, market shows some tactical bounce once targets will be reached...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Buying on deepsMorning folks, BTC performance now looks great. We consider at this moment only long position taking, at least on daily and above time frames. But to do this we need more or less moderate retracement. Right now, as price hits 1.27 upside extension on daily chart, this is the chance that maybe we get some pullback. In this case we consider 50.7-51K as primary level to watch for. Retracement also could be very small - just to 53K. At current moment other support levels have less chances to be reached.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
50.3K seems attractive for long entryMorning folks, So, BTC has got rather strong positive injection from JP so it has not formed even minor pullback before the rally that we have discussed lat time. Now market has no significant barriers till the former ATH top. Besides, based on the market mechanics, BTC should not show any deep retracements any more. It means that currently we could consider only more or less moderate pullbacks for new position taking. Now price stands at Overbought on daily chart and 56.6K is extension resistance (not shown here). It gives us some chances that BTC could show some pullback starting somewhere around current levels. In this case we could keep an eye on few support levels for new entry. Our favor stands at 50.30K K-support area which seems most reliable for this purpose.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Too flat action increases risk of failureGreetings guys, Although our H&S pattern on daily chart is still valid, at least on paper, but the action that we see on 4H time frame increases chances of failure. As you can see the daily right arm bottom takes the shape of smaller 4H H&S pattern. Normal price action suggests upside acceleration as soon as H&s has been formed. But here we see opposite picture - flat action and triangle shape. This is not normal. Only external driving factor could push BTC up, but technical picture warns that something is wrong. So, if you already have longs - move stops to breakeven or, just under the lows of daily right arm. If not - stands a side for awhile.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4040 is first minor targetMorning guys, welcome back, we hope that you had a good Xmas and New Year's day time. Mostly BTC supports our scenario with daily H&S pattern and now we turn to final stage - action to the target. Two entry opportunities have worked well. First was on the bottom of the right arm, second - on minor retracement, based on our hourly H&S pattern. Now, as we have minor H&S on hourly chart as well, we will follow to its targets first, and turn to daily H&S second. First target is AB=CD based on the head and right arm. It stands at 4040 area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Wait for right arm and up...Morning guys, So, upstep is done - market shows upside bounce from our anticipated 3500 level, which is suggested by daily H&S shape. Now BTC has only one legal road - up. Illegal reversal will mean H&S failure which suggests drop below the 3000$ Head level. Now time has come for our "conservative" tactics, if you were scared a bit to buy right at the daily right arm bottom. Here, on 1H chart, market has formed upside reversal swing after butterfly has been formed. It means that deep retracement should follow and, here, we also could get minor reverse H&S pattern. I draw it as a combination of butterfly and "222" here. 5/8 Fib support stands around 3750$ level. This is potential entry area for those who would like to buy (against 3550$ lows). Potential target, as we've mentioned before daily AB=CD, based on H&S. Reverse down and breaking of 3550 lows will be early sign of collapse and drop below 3000$. Detailed video with all time frames analysis on our website (link at signature below), no advertisement or cross-links, as usual. pure analysis. Good luck.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Moment of truth for BTC - either up to 4500 or drop below 3000Morning guys, So, that's it. Price at the bottom of right arm of our H&S pattern. Potential target is 4500$ - AB=CD and strong daily K-resistance area. Failure of H&S will lead to drop below the head, i .e. 3000$. Those of you, who tracks our analysis, probably knows that we have long-term uncompleted weekly 1800$ target and treat this H&S only as a retracement. Sooner or later but due our expectations final leg down should happen. That's why possible H&S failure here is not minor question for us. The one thing that I do not like with this pattern is strong sell-off on right shoulder. Actually on right shoulder bulls should control the market. But, instead of gradual AB-CD that we've discussed previously, we''ve got sharp drop. This is not good. So, we offer to buy insurance - wait for upside action up from major 5/8 Fib support, where market stands right now, and appearing, say, reverse H&S on 1H chart. Butterfly we already have. This is instead of buying right now... But, this is just IMO.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Up to ~ 4000 and down to 3500$Morning guys, Everything stands according the plan. Market shows respect to our ~4000$ strong resistance area, which includes two Fib levels and intraday 1.618 AB=CD target that we've talked last week. Since we're watching for H&S pattern on daily, we need to get the last part - right arm. As market has formed bearish reversal swing here, first upside pullback should be, approximately 5/8 to ~4000$ and next we expect CD leg down to ~3500$. That should be the moment where we need to make decision on long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Primary pattern to watch for is H&SMorning guys, yesterday we've met some misundertsanding in comments so here we try to clarify this. We wait for deep retracement to trade BTC long with some AB=CD shape. Most probable pattern that could provide it is H&S. So, we're waiting for the bottom of right arm. But we do not trade BTC short now and do not call for this. In fact, we do not care where downside reversal will happen and where neckline of H&S will be. All that we do care about - where this downside retracement will over. Because this is our entry point. And the fact that yesterday downside action is not started - doesn't harm our position, since we do not trade BTC short right now. It just means that we're still waiting...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3450 retracement stands on the tableMorning guys, BTC has completed 1st stage of our short-term trading plan and tested 4000$ resistance area. Since this is first upside reversal swing after long dropping - retracement down should be deep. As our yesterday AB=CD pattern is completed - BTC starts forming H&S pattern. It seems that right arm will take the shape of "222" Sell. Since our major context stands up - we do not call you to trade it short right now, but this is not forbidden of course. H&S target suggests drop to major 5/8 Fib support on hourly chart and this is our level where we think about long entry
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4
Watching for next sky around 3700Morning guys, Our yesterday trading plan exceeds our most brave expectations as BTC jumped above our minor AB-CD targets. Existing of strong bearish long-term momentum and and 1.27 butterfly 4H chart makes us think that we could get 1.27 reverse H&S pattern. It means that as strong resistance on 4H chart will be hit we should get deep pullback, prefferably in the shape of "222" Buy which could be used for long entry again. Thus, if you've missed entry yesterday - don't upset with this. Ordinary H&S target should be around 3700$.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3320$ retracement is possibleMorning, guys, On Friday our minor 3170 target has been hit - its intermediary one on the way to major 2900 point. This target is based on two butterflies - 4H 1.27 one and 1H 1.618 that you see on the chart. Also AB=CD target has been completed. Now market is forming something that reminds H&S shape. It means that we could get at least AB-CD pullback to ~3320 area. Although we still keep bearish sentiment and mostly treat this pullback as the chance to step in on bearish side again - we should get '222" Sell by this retracement. Long position is not forbidden until "C" point is valid. Otherwise, it will be H&S failure and market will continue downside action.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten