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3320$ retracement is possibleMorning, guys, On Friday our minor 3170 target has been hit - its intermediary one on the way to major 2900 point. This target is based on two butterflies - 4H 1.27 one and 1H 1.618 that you see on the chart. Also AB=CD target has been completed. Now market is forming something that reminds H&S shape. It means that we could get at least AB-CD pullback to ~3320 area. Although we still keep bearish sentiment and mostly treat this pullback as the chance to step in on bearish side again - we should get '222" Sell by this retracement. Long position is not forbidden until "C" point is valid. Otherwise, it will be H&S failure and market will continue downside action.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
2900$ on the table?Morning guys, Market shows very weak reaction on any bullish patterns that was forming on intraday charts. Current situation is not an exception. This makes us to wait for 1.618 butterfly target on daily chart around 2900$. Reaction on 1.27 target was just minor harmonic swing. Once trend stands bullish by MACD but price shows flat action - this makes us think on existence of bearish dynamic pressure, which should lead to another leg down sometime soon. Analysis of intraday charts stand in the daily video on our website. Link stands in sign.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4050 minimum target of 3-Drive "Buy" patternGreeting everybody, We're still watching for extention of upside retracement and patterns that could trigger it. Since taking of bearish position is postponed on indefinite time, because we need to wait either when upside retracement will be over or for clear signs of BTC failure and downside action. Now we do not have anything of this kind. For short-term bullish trading, BTC has formed 3-Drive "Buy" pattern on 4H chart. It suggests action above 4050$, but also could become the starting point of greater action. If you have bullish view, you could think about it. Pattern will be valid until market holds the lows. For position taking minor 3/8 retracement could be used on 1H chart, or some bullish continuation pattern, say "222" Buy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
4100 or 3450$ ?Morning guys, Now we're investigating upside retracement on daily chart, which could happen by one of the three patterns - "222' Buy", Double Bottom or butterfly "Buy". As '222" Buy already stands in place - we're watching of market reaction on it. Yesterday we've talked that upside action could start by H&S pattern, and indeed, market hit the neckline and now is forming right arm. But, now it seems that arm is overextended to the downside and breaks the harmony of the pattern. This makes it weaker. Anyway, if H&S will hold, we could get action to 4100, as AB-CD target of this pattern. Conversely, dropping below recent lows and moving back to the head means that daily '222" triggereed only minor reaction, and next pattern stands on horizion, which is Double bottom. It means that BTC will drop back to daily lows...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4000-4100 is first upside target of retracementGreeting everybody, We continue to work with short-term retracement action on BTC. As our downside target has been perfectly hit yesterday - 4H AB-CD pattern and butterfly "Buy' on 1H, we've got perfect "222" Buy, which could lead to fargoing consequences. First is, at least 30% upside action, but potentially we could get DRPO "Buy" pattern on daily chart and 50% upside action of the whole thrust down... Meantime, on hourly chart price stands at Agreement support of major 5/8 Fib level and AB=CD pattern. Market shows good uspide reaction here, thus, reverse H&S pattern could be formed. Nearest upside target by this pattern is 4000-4100, but as we've said - this could become just a beginning of longer-term upside retracement.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
1
3717 is short term destinatinationMorning guys, Our K-resistance area of 4250-4300$ that we've mentioned last week is working well. Market indeed has failed to break it on marche. Taking in consideration strong bearish momentum that still stands on the market, our most conservative expectation is deep retracement to 3717 area and completion of AB=CD pattern, which should give us daily '222" Buy. Ultimate result of the same action could be butterfly with new lows. Thus, ones our H&S pattern has done well on Friday, we've talked about it in our video on website, today we're watching for butterfly. First target is 3800 - 1.27 butterfly extension and major 5/8 support, next target is 3717 - completion of larger AB-CD pattern and 1.681 butterfly target. Watch our video on website (see sign links at the bottom of the page) for more details. Thank you for watching.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Retracement at least to 3900$Morning guys, yesterday we've talked about possible sell trade around 4300$ K-resistance area, which also was an Agreement with our AB-CD pattern. As a result we've got "222" Sell, which suggests at least pullback to 3900$ area. Although drop could be stronger, since bearish momentum still stands here and BTC now shows first moderate upside retracement after collapse. Our major focus on daily chart, where we're watching for DiNapoli direction patterns - either B&B "Sell" or DRPO "Buy". Which one will be formed depends on price action within 1-2 sessions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3000?Morning guys, Miracle has not happened, (to be honest we don't count on it too much) as market has failed to complete our AB-CD pattern and dropped after it has failed to break trendline on hourly chart. Now, again, theoretical chances exist with action to 4200$ by AB=CD retracement, as market has two bullish grabbers on 4H chart. But my suggestion is - appearing of butterfly with 3000$ target looks more probable. In fact, if market has failed to break trend line on good uspide pace that was yesterday, today, chances to do it look phantom. BTC has negative fundamental background and from technical point of view, it has only one support by far - daily oversold level, which stands now around 3000. Thus, although AB-CD upside action theoretically could happen, we do not recommend to go long and use any rally as chance for short entry. In fact we have pennant pattern forming on daily chart...
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC uspide retracement scenarioHey everybody, Here we introduce possible scenario of upside pullback on BTC. This is not the call to buy it, this is just a suggestion the shape of retracement. Depending on your view, you could treat this either as setup for scalp buy trade or rally to sell into. In general we have long-term bearish view, we've talked about it many times in our previous reports. Today we also have prepared special report on BTC that explains background of going things and they are not tehcnicals of course - hard fork of BTC cash, postponing ICE futures introduction, breakeven level of ETH mining - just to name some. Anyway, if retracement up will happen - that's the scenario to watch. Now BTC shows AB-CD retracement up and AB=CD target already has been hit. NExt destination point is XOP - 1.618 extension around 4360$ area. Then we need to keep an eye on pullback, as reverse H&S could be formed. The right arm lows will be interesting for those who intends to go long. If you have bearish view - just wait when H&S action will be over on larger time frame. In general market keeps our "creeping with oversold" price action.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Upside relief at least to 5000 area is possibleMorning everybody, BTC has hit long term targets around 4000-4200 area - daily 1.618 and weekly 1.27 butterflies. Since they are accompanied by daily oversold as well - this good background at least for technical pullback. On 4H chart we also have steep AB=CD pattern. At first glance, pullback is possible at least to 5000 $ area which is Fib K-resistance area, including 3/8 level of major stage of collapse. Thus, if you would like to go short - better to wait for pullback. Scalp long position theoretically is possible, but we do not have good bullish patterns yet on hourly chart. Once it will be formed we could a) better estimate upside target, b) get more confidence with scalp buy. Currently we see nothing of this kind yet
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Mining breakeven point?Morning guys, So, our long-term weekly trage that we've talked about in recent 2-3 months has been mostly reached (just 100$ difference). Collapse was really miserable. BTC has completed our daily butterfly as well and now stands oversold on daily chart. There is definitely some kind of shock exists here, which turn BTC to some time of flat action and retracement. But, since drop was really miserable, we do not exclude downside continuation a bit later. Today, it is possible AB=CD retracement on hourly chart somewhere to 5800$. But what is really interesting - what will happen with mining. BTC stands around global average price of mining. How crypto world will react on this moment, what will happen with mining and what impact on BTC price will follow. It needs some time for accompdation to this price. So, as on Bitfinex action, as on yesterday collapse - we expect some silience in trading while investors will come in habit with a new reality and new prices of BTC. you can see daily videos on BTC on our website, with more charts in it.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Some Psychological issues on BTCMorning guys, As you know we keep long-term bearish view on bitcoin market. Previously we've discussed a lot of patterns that chould be formed here - daily butterfly with 5800 target and 4H one with 6100 just to name some. Today we would like to talk on psychological backround of BTC situation. It has started on Bitfinex collapse and explosive demand for crypto. Many traders said "at last", we're at the the eve of upside reversal. But close look at what has happened after that makes us think that sentiment is mostly bearish here. This huge rally has not become a starting point of upside continuation. Market stands inside its range for 2 months but never moves in upper half of the range. This week on downside action major trendline support has been broken and price is coming to the range's lows for second time. We suggest that this time these lows will be broken. Taking in consideration exceptional role of huge candles - when they are broken, market follows in the direction of breakout, usually on a distance equals to the range. It means that this should lead us somewhere to 5600 $ area, which stands close to our daily target.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
3
EUR will drop to 1.12 area next weekMorning guys, At first glance overall momentum and sentiment looks bullish for EUR, but we see alternative factors from US 10 year yield jump, short-term sentiment analysis and dollar index price behavior. Thus, instead of upside bounce from 1.1360 and forming reverse H&S pattern, we mostly expect to see big 1.618 3-Drive "Buy" and drop to 1.12-1.1230 area next week. Maybe Nov 8th Fed meeting will become major driving factor of this process.
Short
by Sive-Morten
Last chance for bullsMorning guys, Yesterday we've said that BTC has to hold above major K-support area to keep bullish sentiment. Despite dollar-supportive Fed decision yesterday, BTC was able to stay above major K-support and formed "222" Buy pattern. Currently I'm not sure on real upside continuation, as upside channel has been broken, but minor pullback as respect of this area is possible, somewhere to 6450 area. At the same time, we do not like sighs of acceleration in downside action in recent 2 session. As our long-term view is bearish on BTC and we treat this action just as a retracement, adding mostly dollar supportive sentiment on the traditional markets - we suggest with high degree that downside action on next week will continue. Right now market stands at final bullish outpost. So, if you still would like to go long - that's the last area and bullish invalidation point. Breaking of this support will turn technical picture bearish. We still suggest move stop to breakeven asap on any long position here as foundation for BTC appreciation looks fragile.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Moment of truth for BTCMorning guys, Market has reached our predefined retracement target. In fact, we have side by side two K-support areas and for BTC it is crucial to hold above 6400$ to keep bullish sentiment. Otherwise, market will form bearish reversal swing, which could mean deeper retracement, at least or, even downside reversal. So, market right now stands at the point which gives perfect risk/reward ratio, because this is also invalidation point for short-term bullish setup. Taking position here doesn't promise you success, but it does promise minimum loss in case on short-term trend breaking. Today's Fed results will be major driving factor, I suppose.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten