Morning folks, Last time we've discussed possible upside pullback, as around 41K area we had downside AB-CD (XOP) target, forming 3-Drive Buy and strong support area around. And now is the question - wether current pullback is what we were preparing to, or something different. We ask - it is different. In fact, we think that this pullback is just a by-product...
Morning folks, In general this is an update to previous idea. So, take a look at them together. Last time we said, that it would be better to wait for 41-42K area, as market has have no bullish context and situation was blur. Right now we still think that time is not ready for long-term investing, as overall environment is not friendly for BTC. Still,...
Morning folks, So, our downside AB-CD is done. Although we suggest it is not time yet to discuss bullish reversal and long-term investing in the BTC, but this is subject for fundamental report :) Meantime, for short-term trading, we see strong support area of 41-42K which agrees with 1H XOP target. IT makes it tactically attractive for short-term bullish...
Morning guys, Although we intentionally skipped Thursday update, as market was dead, today also we do not have any big progress. Speaking shortly, BTC stands now in tricky situation when it has multiple fundamental headwinds, such as interest rates rising, and at the same time constantly is supported by cross-border capitals flow from EU. This cross of different...
Morning folks, Our last setup has failed as BTC has not shown any typical response to resistance area that we've discussed previously. At the same time, the fact that BTC is rising together with the US interest rates (which breaks the reasonable relation between these two assets) have made us to drill this question deeper. And we have come to conclusion that...
Morning folks, By watching on the way, how BTC is climbing up, it seems that sentiment remains bearish but there is some monetary support exists on the market. As EU economy meets big problems, investors are searching for alternatives in a way of the US assets and cryptocurrencies. Still, as performance looks heavy, slow and choppy, we do not see any reasons...
Morning folks, Despite that market has climbed slightly higher, since our previous discussion, we do not see any changes in sentiment of the market. Reaction on Fed statement was weaker than on other markets. Despite, we treat Fed statement as hawkish (we've explained our position last time) which brings a lot of headwinds to the BTC in longer term perspective....
Morning folks, Despite just 25 bp point move from the Fed, overall comments are bearish for BTC market. The terminal rate is raisen to 2.4-2.8%, cycle term is extended until 2024 and GDP forecast is cut from 4% to 2.8%. It means that economy works with negative performance and should keep doing so in foreseeable future. Fed is few steps behind inflation that now...
Morning folks, Action of the last week is not very impressive as BTC tries to hold on the last 5/8 support area, forming no interest patterns on intraday charts by far. And week chart now provides more important picture. Now it is easy recognize forming bearish pennant, suggesting that downside action should continue. Fundamentally, it is correct, as BTC can't...
Morning folks, Bitcoin was able to stay above our "C" point, keeping at least theoretical chances on upward action. And theoretically both scenarios are possible. This is typical situation, when market stands in contraction mode, forming narrower and narrower swings, so we could easily imagine butterflies in both direction. But... we could be wrong actually....
Morning everybody, So, it seems that our doubts concerning recent rally, that it might be just flows of Russian oligarchs and EU investors at less degree, seems to be correct, as it was reversed very fast. Second is, BTC shows no positive reaction on supportive NFP report on Friday. Our vital support level, that we've discussed last time, has been broken fast....
Morning folks, So, last setup is done nice, but I suspect that it was driven by capitals flow as of Russian oligarchs as EU investors that are rebalancing assets and moving some out of the EU. It is interesting now, for how long this flow will last. But, this is different topic... In short term, market has great upside momentum, and technically it is difficult...
Morning folks, On BTC we've got the pullback as on all the other markets, which could be wrongly treated as preparation to reversal. We do not follow to this suggestion and still keep 26K target on the table. So, our position is - No investments in BTC by far. Still, for short-term trading, you could consider this hourly reverse H&S pattern that might start...
Morning folks, So, it is no need to make big comments. Keeping all non-technical background aside, from technical point of view Bitcoin has failed to form H&S pattern and dropped below major 5/8 support. Thus odds suggest taking out of 32K lows - this is the usual performance, when H&S fails. Price drops below the head. As market has no solid support areas...
Morning guys, Currently, markets across the board have got a minor injection of positivity as Putin/Biden meeting is planned for the 24th of February. We're undisposed to overestimate that potential result of this meeting, just because Biden never accept Russia's conditions. It becomes a political suicide for him and for the whole Democratic party. Accompanied...
Morning guys, Market shows relatively quiet behavior, and currently we see only single option - either you anticipate action in your favorite direction or wait for more clarity. 4H chart picture looks like indecision action with triangle shape. Thus, 40K and 46K looks like invalidation points, correspondingly for bullish and bearish positions. Our personal...
Morning folks, So, BTC accurately has completed our last 45.6K target and dropped out from the strong weekly resistance area. To be honest, guys, we can't find a solid long-term background for investing in crypto now. The two big factors of tough Fed policy and rising geopolitical tensions keep us aside from taking long-term bullish positions. We expect that...
Morning everybody, So, BTC accurately hits the target that we've set on Monday. For the rest of the week, we suspect that the next target should be enough, at least until our next update on Monday. Currently, we could sign some hidden strength on the markets across the board, it seems that markets is aimed for higher action - EUR, Gold, etc. But here, on BTC we...