Get started

FPA

Additional scenario of retracement appearsHey everybody, BTC still stands with suggested retracement out from 67K month target. We still have two major destination points for it - 56.25K and 51.65K, although we hope that it wouldn't go so far... Today we would like to share with some add-on to the retracement's shape that might be interesting. Currently it is impossible to say, whether this scenario works as reversal and triggers direct upward continuation to next long-term target, or it just pushes price to 65K target before 2nd downside leg starts. If this setup fails, then it could reshape into downside butterfly and complete 56.25K target. So, for conservative traders, it is not necessary to follow it. At the same time it has some adv., and the major one is ability to place very tight stop. We're talking about H&S pattern that is formed around daily support line. Market stands at the point of right arm's bottom, where upward action should start. Whether to follow it or not - is up to you. Thus, for a conservative approach - look for more clarity. Otherwise, you could try this one, if it fits to your view and trading style.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement targetsGood morning folks, As BTC is getting clearer shape, now we could talk about potential targets of downside retracement. Triangle has not been formed, so, immediate upward continuation was taken off the table. Now it is clear H&S shape and it has two potential targets. First one is very close, that is AB=CD that agrees with strong Fib support area. This is the first level for accumulation and attempt to buy, as market has good chances to bounce, at least temporary, that lets us to move stops to b/e. Currently we do not have serious reasons to suggest drop to XOP and next Agreement area with major 5/8 Fib support. But, if this happens, still - you know what level to watch next. These two levels are enough to hold retracement on any bullish market. If BTC somehow breaks them both - it will be clear signal that something is broken in bullish machine.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Retracement shapeGood morning folks, So the first downside reaction starts as we've discussed it last time. Now, it is too big task to explore possible shapes and describe them here - just watch the video on FPA site if you're interested... Here I would say only that we need to control the depth of the reaction. First is, if market starts to form the triangle - this is the clear sign to buy and coming upside continuation. All other shapes suggest deeper retracement. The first one you already could see on 4H chart - this is H&S. This pattern could lead price to 55K at, least. Alternatively we could get the Double Top, that suggests even deeper retracement and re-testing local highs around 52K. So let's start with H&S and see how it will turn. Once we get more information - we return to this subject on Thu, with our next update.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
To back or not to backMorning folks, So, BTC hits ATH and 0.618 (COP) 67K extension on monthly chart. This is first upside target of new large AB-CD pattern. Also price hits weekly overbought. Technically, picture definitely suggests that BTC should go higher in long-term. Our first target is 75-77K. But in near-term the major question is whether it shows any reaction on the top and what reaction will be. As usual it could be either wash&rinse of the top and deeper pullback or market could start coiling around it. The former is more bearish for lower time frames than the latter. Hence the strategy is different depending on what you would like to do. For bulls we suggest it makes sense to wait for pullback to 56.5-59K area where nice bullish setup might be formed and this area is attractive to possess for upward continuation. Besides, hardly you would like to buy at ATH and weekly overbought level. For the bears picture is not as pleasant, mostly because of the major tendency. Right now the background for taking position is not ready it. Yes, market hits the targets but it is unclear the reaction yet, as too few time passed since then. As targets stand at long term chart, do not scare to miss the entry moment. If reaction starts - it will be clear and extended. That's being said - now we should understand what the reaction will be (if any). Approximately, bulls should keep an eye on 56.5-59K, while bears have to wait for clear signs and patterns before pull the trigger
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Pullback after 64-67K targetsMorning folks, So BTC stands nice and we have no doubts in long term bullish context. So our attention right now mostly on short term performance as many people ask where next chance for entry could appear. Right now BTC stands at weekly overbought area and is coming to targets of COP ~ 67K on monthly chart and daily OP at 64K. I suspect that 67K might be hit technically on triggering buying stops above ATH.... Anyway, whatever shape price takes on a way up and around these targets, it seems we could consider 55K support area (this is current level) as we potentially could get DInapoli B&B "Buy" trade if our suggestion will be correct and, indeed, market shows some tactical bounce once targets will be reached...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
1
Buying on deepsMorning folks, BTC performance now looks great. We consider at this moment only long position taking, at least on daily and above time frames. But to do this we need more or less moderate retracement. Right now, as price hits 1.27 upside extension on daily chart, this is the chance that maybe we get some pullback. In this case we consider 50.7-51K as primary level to watch for. Retracement also could be very small - just to 53K. At current moment other support levels have less chances to be reached.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
50.3K seems attractive for long entryMorning folks, So, BTC has got rather strong positive injection from JP so it has not formed even minor pullback before the rally that we have discussed lat time. Now market has no significant barriers till the former ATH top. Besides, based on the market mechanics, BTC should not show any deep retracements any more. It means that currently we could consider only more or less moderate pullbacks for new position taking. Now price stands at Overbought on daily chart and 56.6K is extension resistance (not shown here). It gives us some chances that BTC could show some pullback starting somewhere around current levels. In this case we could keep an eye on few support levels for new entry. Our favor stands at 50.30K K-support area which seems most reliable for this purpose.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Too flat action increases risk of failureGreetings guys, Although our H&S pattern on daily chart is still valid, at least on paper, but the action that we see on 4H time frame increases chances of failure. As you can see the daily right arm bottom takes the shape of smaller 4H H&S pattern. Normal price action suggests upside acceleration as soon as H&s has been formed. But here we see opposite picture - flat action and triangle shape. This is not normal. Only external driving factor could push BTC up, but technical picture warns that something is wrong. So, if you already have longs - move stops to breakeven or, just under the lows of daily right arm. If not - stands a side for awhile.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
4040 is first minor targetMorning guys, welcome back, we hope that you had a good Xmas and New Year's day time. Mostly BTC supports our scenario with daily H&S pattern and now we turn to final stage - action to the target. Two entry opportunities have worked well. First was on the bottom of the right arm, second - on minor retracement, based on our hourly H&S pattern. Now, as we have minor H&S on hourly chart as well, we will follow to its targets first, and turn to daily H&S second. First target is AB=CD based on the head and right arm. It stands at 4040 area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Wait for right arm and up...Morning guys, So, upstep is done - market shows upside bounce from our anticipated 3500 level, which is suggested by daily H&S shape. Now BTC has only one legal road - up. Illegal reversal will mean H&S failure which suggests drop below the 3000$ Head level. Now time has come for our "conservative" tactics, if you were scared a bit to buy right at the daily right arm bottom. Here, on 1H chart, market has formed upside reversal swing after butterfly has been formed. It means that deep retracement should follow and, here, we also could get minor reverse H&S pattern. I draw it as a combination of butterfly and "222" here. 5/8 Fib support stands around 3750$ level. This is potential entry area for those who would like to buy (against 3550$ lows). Potential target, as we've mentioned before daily AB=CD, based on H&S. Reverse down and breaking of 3550 lows will be early sign of collapse and drop below 3000$. Detailed video with all time frames analysis on our website (link at signature below), no advertisement or cross-links, as usual. pure analysis. Good luck.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Moment of truth for BTC - either up to 4500 or drop below 3000Morning guys, So, that's it. Price at the bottom of right arm of our H&S pattern. Potential target is 4500$ - AB=CD and strong daily K-resistance area. Failure of H&S will lead to drop below the head, i .e. 3000$. Those of you, who tracks our analysis, probably knows that we have long-term uncompleted weekly 1800$ target and treat this H&S only as a retracement. Sooner or later but due our expectations final leg down should happen. That's why possible H&S failure here is not minor question for us. The one thing that I do not like with this pattern is strong sell-off on right shoulder. Actually on right shoulder bulls should control the market. But, instead of gradual AB-CD that we've discussed previously, we''ve got sharp drop. This is not good. So, we offer to buy insurance - wait for upside action up from major 5/8 Fib support, where market stands right now, and appearing, say, reverse H&S on 1H chart. Butterfly we already have. This is instead of buying right now... But, this is just IMO.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Up to ~ 4000 and down to 3500$Morning guys, Everything stands according the plan. Market shows respect to our ~4000$ strong resistance area, which includes two Fib levels and intraday 1.618 AB=CD target that we've talked last week. Since we're watching for H&S pattern on daily, we need to get the last part - right arm. As market has formed bearish reversal swing here, first upside pullback should be, approximately 5/8 to ~4000$ and next we expect CD leg down to ~3500$. That should be the moment where we need to make decision on long entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
Primary pattern to watch for is H&SMorning guys, yesterday we've met some misundertsanding in comments so here we try to clarify this. We wait for deep retracement to trade BTC long with some AB=CD shape. Most probable pattern that could provide it is H&S. So, we're waiting for the bottom of right arm. But we do not trade BTC short now and do not call for this. In fact, we do not care where downside reversal will happen and where neckline of H&S will be. All that we do care about - where this downside retracement will over. Because this is our entry point. And the fact that yesterday downside action is not started - doesn't harm our position, since we do not trade BTC short right now. It just means that we're still waiting...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3450 retracement stands on the tableMorning guys, BTC has completed 1st stage of our short-term trading plan and tested 4000$ resistance area. Since this is first upside reversal swing after long dropping - retracement down should be deep. As our yesterday AB=CD pattern is completed - BTC starts forming H&S pattern. It seems that right arm will take the shape of "222" Sell. Since our major context stands up - we do not call you to trade it short right now, but this is not forbidden of course. H&S target suggests drop to major 5/8 Fib support on hourly chart and this is our level where we think about long entry
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4
Watching for next sky around 3700Morning guys, Our yesterday trading plan exceeds our most brave expectations as BTC jumped above our minor AB-CD targets. Existing of strong bearish long-term momentum and and 1.27 butterfly 4H chart makes us think that we could get 1.27 reverse H&S pattern. It means that as strong resistance on 4H chart will be hit we should get deep pullback, prefferably in the shape of "222" Buy which could be used for long entry again. Thus, if you've missed entry yesterday - don't upset with this. Ordinary H&S target should be around 3700$.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
3320$ retracement is possibleMorning, guys, On Friday our minor 3170 target has been hit - its intermediary one on the way to major 2900 point. This target is based on two butterflies - 4H 1.27 one and 1H 1.618 that you see on the chart. Also AB=CD target has been completed. Now market is forming something that reminds H&S shape. It means that we could get at least AB-CD pullback to ~3320 area. Although we still keep bearish sentiment and mostly treat this pullback as the chance to step in on bearish side again - we should get '222" Sell by this retracement. Long position is not forbidden until "C" point is valid. Otherwise, it will be H&S failure and market will continue downside action.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
2900$ on the table?Morning guys, Market shows very weak reaction on any bullish patterns that was forming on intraday charts. Current situation is not an exception. This makes us to wait for 1.618 butterfly target on daily chart around 2900$. Reaction on 1.27 target was just minor harmonic swing. Once trend stands bullish by MACD but price shows flat action - this makes us think on existence of bearish dynamic pressure, which should lead to another leg down sometime soon. Analysis of intraday charts stand in the daily video on our website. Link stands in sign.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
4050 minimum target of 3-Drive "Buy" patternGreeting everybody, We're still watching for extention of upside retracement and patterns that could trigger it. Since taking of bearish position is postponed on indefinite time, because we need to wait either when upside retracement will be over or for clear signs of BTC failure and downside action. Now we do not have anything of this kind. For short-term bullish trading, BTC has formed 3-Drive "Buy" pattern on 4H chart. It suggests action above 4050$, but also could become the starting point of greater action. If you have bullish view, you could think about it. Pattern will be valid until market holds the lows. For position taking minor 3/8 retracement could be used on 1H chart, or some bullish continuation pattern, say "222" Buy.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
4100 or 3450$ ?Morning guys, Now we're investigating upside retracement on daily chart, which could happen by one of the three patterns - "222' Buy", Double Bottom or butterfly "Buy". As '222" Buy already stands in place - we're watching of market reaction on it. Yesterday we've talked that upside action could start by H&S pattern, and indeed, market hit the neckline and now is forming right arm. But, now it seems that arm is overextended to the downside and breaks the harmony of the pattern. This makes it weaker. Anyway, if H&S will hold, we could get action to 4100, as AB-CD target of this pattern. Conversely, dropping below recent lows and moving back to the head means that daily '222" triggereed only minor reaction, and next pattern stands on horizion, which is Double bottom. It means that BTC will drop back to daily lows...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten