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Pullback todayMorning guys, Market almost has hit our minor 6400 COP target that we've mentinoed today on our forum. Still, it is not enough to break bearish context yet. Despite recent upside action, market was not able to return in rectangle consolidation yet, and in fact, stands in range of the collapse that has happened on Monday. Since we have "222" Sell pattern here, on 1H chart, and COP target has been hit - at least 3/8 pullback should follow. Depending on retracement depth, we will see, should we expect any other upside action in nearest future. Another warning moment is possible bearish grabber that could be formed today on daily chart.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
6030 drop is a first step to 5100$ targetMorning guys, We keep our long-term bearish view on BTC with 5100 extended target. Meantime, we wide daily AB=CD 6034$ target and it seems that it will be first destination point. Yesterday we've discussed scenarios of short entry and thought that pullback to 5/8 resistance might be good way to sell the rally, but now, on houry chart we have pennant/triangle consolidation with signs of bearish dynamic pressure, which suggests drop right from current levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
5100$ target for BTCMorning everybody, finally we've got an action on BTC market, which confirms our bearish view. We think that BTC now stands under scrutiny revaluation by investors, and not in positive direction. Fundamentally we do not see any long-term supportive factor for BTC. Technically, weekly chart shows clear signs of bearish dynamic pressure. While MACD trend stands bullish, price is forming lower tops. Within few weeks we think that BTC will hit 5100 target of weekly butterfly. Today upside retracement to 6330$ 5/8 Fib resistance is possible, which we think should be good area for short entry
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
6520 seems good level to go shortMorning guys, Finally some activity lets us hope on appearing of patterns. We keep our bearish view on bitcoin and still suggest short entry at any attractive level and bearish pattern on the back. Now our attention is on 4H chart. Right now BTC has completed "222" Sell. But, as CD leg of inner AB-CD pattern is a bit faster than AB, we keep hope that price could move slightly higher and form Butterfly "Sell". It is interesting that potential butterfly reversal point coincides with 3/8 Fib resistance around 6520$ area
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Dropping our time frame to find at least somethingMorning guys, BTC shows so weak volatility that it couldn't even complete the minimal upside targets. Still now on 1H chart it is a clear shape of pennant/triangle pattern which potentially is continuation one, i.e. bearish in our case. We still keep our bearish view on BTC and do not see any factors that could support demand for BTC right now. Thus, any bearish continuation pattern inside the triangle could be used for short position taking.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
$6500-6525 area should be good for short entryGreetings everybody, Market shows very lazy price action, so it is very difficult to find some setup there. We think that BTC within few weeks will be driven by doubts of investors. On a background of Tether, Bitfinex and Noble Bank events, lack of regulation and bit white spots in blockchain technology - investors, as new as experienced ones will try to re-assess BTC. It brings no interest, it doesn't protect from crisis events. It is an object of hackers attacks and no regulation opens the gate for dirty affairs of different kind. Is it really as attractive as it was seemed before? Technically recent action definitely doesn't corresponds to idea of upside trend. After pullback BTC behaves too flat for bullish reversal. This makes us keep our bearish view intact. Speaking on short-term perspectives, we could get "'222" Sell pattern on Mon-Tue around major 3/8 resistance, which could become not bad area for short position taking.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC direction will be estimated after breakoutMorning, guys It is difficult to comment spaghetti chart of BTC that we have right now, but we'll try. Speaking on larger perspective, since the reason for rally was not fundamentals or economy value of BTC but force-major technical situation, we suggest that chances on drop are better than on upside reversal. Here again an issue of absence of regulation appears and investors again will think about risks of BTC as financial asset. Technically, final direction, whatever it will be, will be estimated on a breakout of huge rectangle that we have, range of the Monday's rally. target will be the height of this range (~600$) counted in direction of breakout. Meantime, while BTC is coiling inside, all that we could do is try to get some small patterns. One of them is "222" Sell that could appear around 3/8 Fib resistance level of ~6520. This will be chance to make scalp shorts. In general we suspect that sequence of such events as Mt. Gox crush, now is Bitfinex and Tether issue and no regulation of BTC market will significantly reduce attractiveness of cryptos for potential investors. Besides, BTC gives no % return on investments, this is also valuable issue on an upside rate cycle in US.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
BTC is preparing for downside breakoutMorning guys, Yesterday we've said that BTC has no fundamental or technical background for growth and force-major situations that we've got yesterday never lasts too long. Conclusion of our view on Monday was - this spike is good chance to go short at better price level. Price action today doesn't provide us clear patterns that nuances point that BTC looks heavy. Take a look - on 30 min chart we have bearish engulfing pattern of huge size. During pullback from the top BTC has broken major 5/8 support area and was not able to return back, now any minor upside attempts are pressed by sellers. As a result we have pennant pattern in progress, which stands more in favor of downside continuation. As a bottom line - we keep our bearish view. For more detailed discussion - visit our forum by signature link, there we put daily videos on BTC.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
5
BTC-short on any upside pullbackMorning guys, BTC has shown outstanding rally today, that was impossible to foresee as technically as fundamentally. This is force-major issue - Bitfinex has a problems with Noble bank, where major assets stand and Tether has a problems with liquidity then, to keep BTC-USD peg ratio. This has triggered explosive demand for exchange assets that investors hold in Tether and Bitfinex for crypto currencies. It means that this reaction will be short term, because it doesn't have any fundamental reasons, and when the wave of exchanges will exhaust, BTC should return to previous levels. We think that this is good opportunity to go short. On daily chart we have perfect AB=CD "222" Sell" at 5/8 Fib resistance and daily overbought area. Now we need to keep an eye on hourly chart and watch for AB-CD upside retracement and smaller "222" Sell, which should give us acceptable area for position taking.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
5900$ is next BTC targetMorning guys, It seems that our bet on collapse yesterday was correct - as soon as market has reached 3/8 Fib level drop has happened. Now market has completed some intraday targets. It means that within few hours minor pullback is possible, but we keep our bearish sentiment and look for 5900$ target on BTC. So, 3/8 retracement again, as yesterday is an area to sell again... Also - take a look at our previous ideas, dedicated to stock markets and our charts of DAX and NASDAQ... and don't tell that we didn't warn you. This is beginning of the catastrophy, guys...
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Minor upside bounce todayGreetings, It seems our bet on collapse yesterday was correct and BTC indeed has reached lower border of the triangle. This action has completed AB=CD leg and gives us 1H "222" Buy pattern. Still, we are not exciting on it too much. Recent collapse was fast and we treat this "222" just as background for minor pullback. Most probable is just 3/8 retracement to ~6600$ area, but not higher than 5/8 level @ 6650$ After that we expect that downside action will continue and treat today's bounce as a chance to go short. Our longer-term view stands intact and it's bearish.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
6500$ is a vital level for short-term perspectiveMorning guys, BTC shows very narrow price action, activity has dropped significantly, so we do not need even any update on daily and 4H analysis. Today is NFP release and preliminary balance stands not in favor of BTC as market mostly expects to get good numbers. Anyway, BTC stands tight and is forming something like reverse H&S on 1H chart. Whatever it will be - 6500$ area has been tested multiple times and supports BTC from collapse. This level will be crucial today either. Drop below it could trigger chain of breakouts of lower stand levels and trigger action to our downside targets that we've mentioned before on 4H chart. Standing above 6500$ and breaking 4H trianlge up could turn short-term sentiment to bullish
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Sive-Morten
BTC looks heavyMorning guys, our 1H H&S pattern has been completed on Friday by occasional spike up of NFP release. Longer term analysis mostly makes us to look south. It means that every time when market will come to long-term trendline - it is time to go short, especially if we have some bearish continuation/reversal pattern. Now it is around 6800 - 7000$ on daily chart. Longer term analysis holds us from taking any long position. It will be possible if long-term triangle will be broken up. Now we see more chances of 6000$ breakout. Please follow our signature link to see other charts - weekly, 4H, 1H.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
1
EUR up to 1.1623 then down to ~1.1560Greetings guys, So, yesterday market has touched our 1.15 support area and neckline of 4H H&S pattern that we've talked recently and still keep in focus. Now it's time to talk on upside perspectives. Following the harmony of the pattern, upside action should reach 1.17-1.1730 area. Our butterfly has worked perfectly and market turns up. Now, on 1H we're watching for minor reverse H&S pattern, with upside continuation to 1.1622 Fib resistance first and drop to 1.1560 - 5/8 Fib support second.
Long
by Sive-Morten
BTC looks to heavy for upside contextMorning everybody, Recent price action makes us keep bearish scenario valid. BTC action looks heavy, no signs of thrust up. Current action as on daily chart as on 4H chart looks like retracement after fast drop. Besides, we have uncompleted our major daily 5900$ target. Putting it all together, our expectation stands with downward continuation. The only uncertainty is not about the target but around the point where this action should start. Either it will start right from here, or, market could form 1H "222" Sell". Please for daily and 1H patterns visit our signature link, dedicated to BTC analysis.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
EUR is tending lowerMorning guys, Last week was a reversal one right from strong daily resistance. As a result, we've got bearish engulfing pattern on weekly chart, which, as a rule, takes the shape of AB=CD action on lower time frames. Since we also could recognize H&S shape here, our expectation is EUR should reach ~1.1450 area, by forming right shoulder and upside retracement first, as it is shown on the chart: Deeper all time frames EUR analysis and fundamental market background you could find on our signature link.
Short
by Sive-Morten