Morning folks, Situation is changing slowly here. Recent news of re-filling of big whales ETF registration with the SEC mostly have been ignored, as we do not see any inspiring action here. It means that overall technical picture has not changed too much. Our major bearish patterns are still in place - daily bearish engulfing, weekly bearish grabber. Markets...
Morning folks, I've prepared but forgot to place update yesterday... So, as we've mentioned in recent two weeks, BTC seems has not enough power to proceed upward action immediately. Recent reactions, and inability to join other markets with CPI rally tells, that downside pullback scenario still stands on the table. Last time we've discussed perfect engulfing...
Morning folks, Today it is mostly sentiment analysis rather than technical one - because you will not find any more or less clear patterns on 4H chart now. But, what is really interesting - weak CPI reaction. Take a look at gold, at FX market and compares to BTC. Something is wrong here with the mood. ETF driver has exhausted, and market needs the new one, but...
Morning folks, So, the ping-pong action that we've discussed last time is under way, but, Friday's performance was dramatic and shows weakness. BTC was not able to proceed higher, forming huge reversal bar on daily chart and bearish grabber on weekly. Although they coul have serious consequences, but for now we do not talk about breaking the tendency or...
Morning everybody, So, first euphoria around BlackRock's ETF starts to fade and market immediately turns to indecision performance. Although our last time scenario has been completed accurately and BTC has re-tested the top, it was not able to proceed higher and continue major upside tendency. This makes us think that some time it could spend in flat, which is...
Morning folks, As you understand all this rally and sentiment is based only on anticipation of BlackRock&Co ETF approvements from the SEC. Thus, recent volatility also has happened due to the same driving factor. SEC said that Fidelity files are inadequate, but later releases commentaries that the file should be changed a bit and re-send. As a result, on...
Morning folks, BTC keeps positive mood. Technically picture looks bullish. Price is forming tight pennant shape near the top - classical sign of preparation for breakout. But, keep in mind, of this bullish stuff is based only on Blackrock ETF file. The driver for the market is purely external. Just think what will happen, if SEC will deny the file, as it was...
Morning folks, BlackRock ETF file has made an explosive action in the news and triggered strongest rally on BTC of a last time. Technically this is good sign for the bulls, pointing that BTC starts new extension mode. Usually you're watching for two things on this stage. First is - market has not changed its mind and erased the rally. Second - strong support...
Morning folks, With SEC problems to put under control Coinbase/Binance, attack on G. Gensler from some Senators and Congressmen and BlackRock bill to register ETF have changed BTC background significantly. If everything will be realised, then it will be absolutely different market in terms of regulation. It will loose freedom but a lot of money will be pour in....
Morning folks, BTC, on a background of common euphoria and anticipation of sooner Fed easing and QE has shown nice intraday rally, exceeding the level that we've specified as a target of retracement and potential resistance. Thus, expected bounce happened, but it has appeared to be much stronger. Now we have bullish reversal swing and a kind of reverse H&S...
Morning folks, Here correctly would be to say "we've warned" you... Anyway, BTC has completed our first downside target, caring all burden of non-interest bearing asset, when rates are high. Now we're watching for minor tactic pullback, more probable to 25.3K area, less probable to 25.6K and consider the latter as good are for stop hiding. Next our downside...
Morning folks, We warned even in February that regulation will become one of the major drivers this year. And now we're getting only fist fruits. Our scepsis on reliability of current rally is confirmed by price action and explains why we haven't considered any long entry despite, at first glance, solid BTC jumps. On Thu, last week, we already warned about...
Morning folks, So, SEC seriously starts working with crypto. If you believe that G. Gensler will easily relief this subject - you're wrong, we're just at the beginning of nightmare for Binance and Coinbase. Just understand that stocks regulation is detailed statement of owners, reserves, cashflows etc. etc. And I'm sure that a lot of blank spots will come on...
Morning folks, We're keep watching for BTC suffering around bullish vital 26.5K support area. First pullback looks not impressive and is looking not like the start of new upside action. Now, market is coming on 2nd test. For the truth sake, our preferable scenario is downside breakout, just because of not friendly fundamental background. This week US Treasury...
Morning folks, As we've warned you last time - don't be too happy with debt ceil rally, as it is nothing to celebrate by far. Formally, BTC keeps bullish scenario valid, but it stands at the edge. We suggest that 26.5-26.8 is a vital area for the bulls, because this is last logical retracement level. Downside breakout opens road to next 23K support and target...
Morning folks, So, Debt ceil achievement, as any external factor, has brought its own adjustment to technical picture. BTC emotional reaction is understandable, but what will happen, when, say bill will stuck in Congress or Senate? In both Houses we have very fragile majority of Rep and Dems correspondingly. But, most interesting - what will happen to BTC...
Morning folks, So, BTC confirms our suggestion of weakness and slipped a bit lower. It is big temptation to think about possible upside reversal, treating this price shape as "222" Buy, or even potential double bottom, but I wouldn't hurry up with this conclusion. In general, I would wait for more bullish signs. If this is upside reversal indeed - market very...
Morning folks, Last time we've discussed possible upside reaction on daily target and support area, and suggested, that BTC could try to take it in a shape of upside AB-CD pattern. Since we were not considering and are not considering right now any long positions due to our fundamental view on BTC. And upside bounce should be nice chance to sell at good...