FR40 27th APRIL 2022Emmanuel Macron was reelected for the second term on April 24th. The program he presented in mid-March argued that the retirement age would be raised to 65 and that the minimum solidarity income would be increased according to working hours.
In the coming weeks, the stability program will need to be sent to Brussels, and the budget trajectory for the next few years will be clear.
FR40 27th APRIL 2022
Fr40
FR40 27th APRIL 2022FR40 Index/CAC is a benchmark French stock market index. It tracks the performance of 40 companies selected among the top 100 market capitalization and the most active listed equities traded on the NYSE Euronext Paris.
French President-elect Emmanuel Macron has done something no other French president has achieved before. Namely winning re-election while still leading his own government. His victory over Marine Le Pen may have been convincing, but he had a problem. There are new elections near the French National Assembly and most voters do not like them. This will make the French stock index fluctuate. FR40 decreased 738 points or 10.32% since the beginning of 2022, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from France.
FR40 CAC40:FUNDAMENTAL NEWS+TECHNICAL VIEW | LONG 🔔France: Growth Slows as Repercussions of Russia-Ukraine Conflict Darken Inflation and Fiscal Outlooks
Rising spending in dealing with economic and geopolitical repercussions of Russia’s further incursion in the Ukraine additionally weigh on France’s already weakened fiscal outlook as recovery slows, exacerbating long-run credit challenges.
Our baseline economic forecast of France is for modest recovery with real growth of 3.6% for 2022 before 2.1% in 2023 (-0.3pps), as growth slows across the euro area.
Under a more stressed economic scenario, with higher and more long-lasting price pressures, output growth slows more significantly. However, we assume the energy price shock proves temporary, given futures of oil and gas prices indicating a downward price trend over a next 12 months.
One of the main knock-on effects is pressure on government to mitigate inflation and raise defence expenditure
One of the main adverse knock-on effects of Russia’s further invasion of the Ukraine for France is pressure the government at this stage faces in mitigating impact of rising inflation as well as to raise defence spending – just as, moreover, recovery from the Covid-19 crisis and associated revenue growth have started slowing.
The resulting excess deficit puts pressure on French public finances, which have already deteriorated under the context of the Covid-19 crisis, leaving the country with limited room to raise spending further. French general government debt reached around 115% of GDP in 2021, up from 98% of GDP in 2019.
On 16 March, the government announced a fresh package of measures aimed at provision of relief for households and firms hit by rising energy and other prices, including a discount of 15-euro cents a litre on petrol between April and July, energy-price related subsidies for firms and the strengthening of state-backed corporate liquidity facilities.
Including previously introduced budgetary support since last September, these measures amount to an aggregate cost of EUR 25bn (circa 1% of GDP). The government has as well started discussion around an increase of civil service salaries in response to rising costs.
France does have the advantage, as compared with Germany especially, of comparatively low reliance on oil and gas imports, given Electricité de France’s large park of nuclear power stations, helping ultimately contain France’s rate of inflation as compared with that of the rest of the euro area and expected to cap additional government compensation paid to households and businesses.
FR40 Bullish entry! - let bring another daytrade home!Hello there traders!
As always we provide you with analysis on tradingview.
Currently we are looking at the FRA40 where we had a nice impuls and corrective move.
Structure tested supply zone and created a reversed H&S.
Bullish pressure pushes the market up and after the retest of the right shoulder we should see FRA40 take its flight to the moon.
We also have seen the counter-trendline break wich indicates we are bullish.
Last but not least we see the market create H&S and a rejection of the retest.
This means we are satisfied and ready to take the trade.
Have a good week!
France 40 Triangle - Short PositionFrance 40 - Short Order
Entry: €5,659.6
TP & RR: €5,569.7 (1.7)
Stop Loss: €5,710.8
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Typically this isn't a trade I would take as the RR is less than 2 and I consider those unfavorable. However, the price may form a lower high and I want to take advantage of the action if that is the case. The SL is placed just above the previous high. If that level gets hit, it would be a clear invalidation of the downtrend idea.
France 40 Ascending Channel - Long PositionFrance 40 Ascending Channel - Long Order
Entry: €5,668.1
TP & RR: €5,760.5 (1.89)
Stop Loss: €5,619.3
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Again, this is a trade that I would like to take, but will not due to already having enough positions. However, I am sharing this idea for those of you looking for a trade setup, especially if you are trading FR40.
This is a similar ascending channel to a recent trade idea I posted on Oil (from yesterday). I am expecting the price to slide up and then do a move up, at least forming a double top and possibly reaching the upper trendline.
Further, I am seeing a crossover on the Market Flow indicator, so I believe the bulls have enough strength to push the price up.
The Stop Loss is set just below the recent low. Generally speaking, if it breaks down from the lower trendline then I would be looking to close the trade since that invalidates the initial setup.
(FR40) Index to hit 4600 EUR Pretty SoonFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion based basis and not meant to be taken seriously. That being said, let me get into my opinion. FR40 which is a French stock index for the Euronext Paris, have been hit pretty significantly as a result of Covid19 after being on a bullish recovery for almost a year prior. Now, as the markets are weighting in and people are starting to "panic sell less", I believe it is about to pass the 4600 euro threshold and likely to go on a stable price recovery trend. The 4600 EUR threshold crossing is likely within a week or so at most, but the recovery process is more of a long afterwards.
Confirmed Broadening Top. Partial recovery is generally to be expected following the completion of a broadening pattern. In most cases, a rally will develop shortly after the level of the fourth reversal has been broken. This rally seldom gets beyond the half-way level between the last top and the last bottom of the pattern.
When it works, this rare pattern is exceedingly important, and generally marks a critical turn from bull to bear market.
When it comes to taking a short position, the conservative policy is to wait for the rally and to sell when prices have recovered about 40% of the decline which completed the broadening top.
CAC40 - Bullish trend can restartThe configuration of the CAC40 index is very interesting, buyers and sellers are fighting around the temporary support of the 5350 points (red dotted line). The very strong support of the 5300 has been tested 1 time last week. In the coming days the 5300 support line will rejoin major ascending support @5300 points, if the CAC40 price haven't break the 5300 support before the 2 line rejoin, a super support will be created and it will become very difficult to break it. This can initiate a new strong bullish trend for end 2017 / beginning 2018.