FR40 27th APRIL 2022Emmanuel Macron was reelected for the second term on April 24th. The program he presented in mid-March argued that the retirement age would be raised to 65 and that the minimum solidarity income would be increased according to working hours.
In the coming weeks, the stability program will need to be sent to Brussels, and the budget trajectory for the next few years will be clear.
FR40 27th APRIL 2022
FRANCE 40
FR40 27th APRIL 2022FR40 Index/CAC is a benchmark French stock market index. It tracks the performance of 40 companies selected among the top 100 market capitalization and the most active listed equities traded on the NYSE Euronext Paris.
French President-elect Emmanuel Macron has done something no other French president has achieved before. Namely winning re-election while still leading his own government. His victory over Marine Le Pen may have been convincing, but he had a problem. There are new elections near the French National Assembly and most voters do not like them. This will make the French stock index fluctuate. FR40 decreased 738 points or 10.32% since the beginning of 2022, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from France.
FR40 CAC40:FUNDAMENTAL NEWS+TECHNICAL VIEW | LONG 🔔France: Growth Slows as Repercussions of Russia-Ukraine Conflict Darken Inflation and Fiscal Outlooks
Rising spending in dealing with economic and geopolitical repercussions of Russia’s further incursion in the Ukraine additionally weigh on France’s already weakened fiscal outlook as recovery slows, exacerbating long-run credit challenges.
Our baseline economic forecast of France is for modest recovery with real growth of 3.6% for 2022 before 2.1% in 2023 (-0.3pps), as growth slows across the euro area.
Under a more stressed economic scenario, with higher and more long-lasting price pressures, output growth slows more significantly. However, we assume the energy price shock proves temporary, given futures of oil and gas prices indicating a downward price trend over a next 12 months.
One of the main knock-on effects is pressure on government to mitigate inflation and raise defence expenditure
One of the main adverse knock-on effects of Russia’s further invasion of the Ukraine for France is pressure the government at this stage faces in mitigating impact of rising inflation as well as to raise defence spending – just as, moreover, recovery from the Covid-19 crisis and associated revenue growth have started slowing.
The resulting excess deficit puts pressure on French public finances, which have already deteriorated under the context of the Covid-19 crisis, leaving the country with limited room to raise spending further. French general government debt reached around 115% of GDP in 2021, up from 98% of GDP in 2019.
On 16 March, the government announced a fresh package of measures aimed at provision of relief for households and firms hit by rising energy and other prices, including a discount of 15-euro cents a litre on petrol between April and July, energy-price related subsidies for firms and the strengthening of state-backed corporate liquidity facilities.
Including previously introduced budgetary support since last September, these measures amount to an aggregate cost of EUR 25bn (circa 1% of GDP). The government has as well started discussion around an increase of civil service salaries in response to rising costs.
France does have the advantage, as compared with Germany especially, of comparatively low reliance on oil and gas imports, given Electricité de France’s large park of nuclear power stations, helping ultimately contain France’s rate of inflation as compared with that of the rest of the euro area and expected to cap additional government compensation paid to households and businesses.
CAC40 (every week I will update the chart)in the short term I will wait for the yellow zone, looks like a triangle pattern not confirmed!
France 40 Uptrending Buy OrderFRA40 Long Position
Entry: €5,644.6
TP & RR: €5,688.0
Stop Loss: €5,627.3
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Breaking up from a descending triangle, I expect the price to retrace slightly and then continue the up move. Stop Loss is set below the trendline and the target is at a resistance level. Market Flow indicator show a clear move up.
The trade is slightly in retrospect as by the time I write the trade idea price started moving up. However, I think you may have a chance to enter again.
France 40 Triangle - Short PositionFrance 40 - Short Order
Entry: €5,659.6
TP & RR: €5,569.7 (1.7)
Stop Loss: €5,710.8
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Typically this isn't a trade I would take as the RR is less than 2 and I consider those unfavorable. However, the price may form a lower high and I want to take advantage of the action if that is the case. The SL is placed just above the previous high. If that level gets hit, it would be a clear invalidation of the downtrend idea.
France 40 Ascending Channel - Long PositionFrance 40 Ascending Channel - Long Order
Entry: €5,668.1
TP & RR: €5,760.5 (1.89)
Stop Loss: €5,619.3
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Again, this is a trade that I would like to take, but will not due to already having enough positions. However, I am sharing this idea for those of you looking for a trade setup, especially if you are trading FR40.
This is a similar ascending channel to a recent trade idea I posted on Oil (from yesterday). I am expecting the price to slide up and then do a move up, at least forming a double top and possibly reaching the upper trendline.
Further, I am seeing a crossover on the Market Flow indicator, so I believe the bulls have enough strength to push the price up.
The Stop Loss is set just below the recent low. Generally speaking, if it breaks down from the lower trendline then I would be looking to close the trade since that invalidates the initial setup.
ridethepig | CAC40📌 A short update on French Equities that are also full of dramatic events.
The nature of the down cycle came after the infamous leg we played to the topside and began profit taking. How to spot an early discovery of the flows?
The diagram clarifies the relationship between the ending of wave 5 and the beginning of the initial 'A' leg with Covid. This change we played with more weight together in DAX which was pinned at the highs. Here is the brief reminder in DAX:
Since we know we are in-between an ABC corrective leg the little inner flows can be played however we want because we know we are protected from the powerful macro direction.
Targets: 4,200 and 3,600 before anything else is resolved to the topside would be very useful for trading the next cycle up in 2021/2022.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FR40EUR is close to the Mirror Level!The trend is bullish now! If the price will cross the level and fix above we can trade buy position!
But don't rush with it because it can bounce temporarily.
Dear followers, the best "Thank you" will be your likes and comments!
Before to trade my ideas make your own analysis.
Thanks for your support!
France index will go upToday, the central bank of France has announced the bouncing of the economy is occurring faster than earlier forecast. Technically, the price is at the earlier resistance level and will bounce off from here.
Wait for confirmation before entering in any trading (Price action confirmation)
Please trade carefully and do not risk more than what you can afford (1% of Maximum).
Disclaimer : This is just an analysis of the trend, the price can move in both ways so please, don't consider it as 100% correct signal.
(FR40) Index to hit 4600 EUR Pretty SoonFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion based basis and not meant to be taken seriously. That being said, let me get into my opinion. FR40 which is a French stock index for the Euronext Paris, have been hit pretty significantly as a result of Covid19 after being on a bullish recovery for almost a year prior. Now, as the markets are weighting in and people are starting to "panic sell less", I believe it is about to pass the 4600 euro threshold and likely to go on a stable price recovery trend. The 4600 EUR threshold crossing is likely within a week or so at most, but the recovery process is more of a long afterwards.
CAC40 Fails to make New All Time HighsThe French CAC40 has struggled to break above the resistance zone into all time new highs. The ECB has promised cutting rates further negative and more stimulus...we shall wait to see the developments, but so far the markets have already priced that in and sold off today after the announcement.
The CAC40 on the 4 hour shows 2/3 market trends. We had an uptrend with well defined higher lows and higher highs, and now we are ranging. On the current candle, we had a fake out with the wick above, and the bears are stepping in.
Await for a break of the 5535 zone before entering a short. See how strong the candle break is and we can assess the trade when that happens.
FR40EUR support on sight!Renko chart shows support, bouncing from it will send the value to the closest resistance with good gains on midterm-longterm.
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